Tesla Talk

Woot? The only way that we are all as rich as we are in the west (including the poorest people) is because of our capitalist system with social re-distribution of income. Without the capitalist base, we could all be very nice to each other, but we would be poorer.

Or maybe you want to write a book blaming capitalism for all evil and proposing to start a more equal society for all workers? I have heard of a fella that did just that quite a few years ago. Didn't end well 😂

lads, the simple fact is that Tesla is a publicly listed company. It has a duty to shareholders to be constantly and consistently delivering value to them.

With the 3 & Y starting to age, the margins dropping to normal levels, and all the AI/robotics stuff being smoke and mirrors, the SP is starting to look even more hopelessly overvalued than it was a few years ago when everyone creamed themselves over 30-40% margins on early cars.

My guess for Q1 is that margins might be down as low as 12%, and dropping.

Therefore Musk needs ‘something’ - yes we’re cancelling the model 2, but look over here - robotaxi’s are back! (who remembers “1m robotaxis on the road by 2020”).

he’s a pathological liar lads, but the company needs shareholder value, he has a duty as CEO to prop up the valuation, and a low margin model 2 clearly isn’t that

Seems as though views are binary, opinions are either black or white …and balance is a scarce commodity . Everyone opinions are valid but they are just that "opinions".

Model Y is still the best selling car worldwide (and due to be refreshed shortly), Model 3 has been refreshed, cars are the most efficient vs competitors, the low cost business model & pursuit of production efficiency, delivers compelling value to customers (price drops) and makes it possible to react to external factors by flexing price to react to rising interest rates, and whilst having an impact on margins still makes sales profitable in ways that other competitors struggle with.

By no means perfect but I wouldn't write them off just yet……

I don’t think anyone is writing them off, it’s a hugely profitable company, but the P/E ratio was always priced as a tech/ai/robotics/FSD/growth company, when I reality it’s becoming clear that it’s a car company, checking down every alleyway for a cool project that isn’t directly car related.

The refreshed 3 never made a single difference to sales in the crucial China market, sales continued to drop, and by all accounts in markets like Ireland it looks like a lot of the upcoming highland sales are to people who currently have a Tesla, so it’s not necessarily new customers (and nothing to do with Tesla Inc, but it drops the 2nd hand market with the glut of cars hitting the market).

When is the last time Mercedes lead on innovation?

obviously it’s an opinion - and obviously it’s not all highlands - but we saw this behaviour when the Y was due too

• listed ads almost doubling in the past few weeks
• a completely disproportionate number of private ads
• plenty of them saying “new Tesla due” or whatever.
• And then there’s the simple fact that Tesla drivers (generally) only ever see themselves driving another Tesla, and the highland is the absolutely perfect car for people with 2-4yo model 3’s already

yes, obviously plenty marques have loyal customers through the years (Audi/bmw in particular), but nothing like Tesla with the Y and now the highland. it’s hard to see them having more than 2 models for sale in Ireland for many years, so existing Tesla drivers have scant choice if they want to stay within the marque.

I think the opinion stands up pretty well, and more so now that so many M3’s are 2-4years old.

The bigger issue Tesla has is that the owners love them so much they won’t take the depreciation hit to move to the highland and will just keep driving.
Again, this doesn’t help Tesla from a shareholder value POV

Aren’t Mercedes the only mainstream car manufacturer with a Level 3 FSD licence - it’s in some US state I think. Accepting insurance liability etc etc - Miles ahead of the rest, but not prepared to use their loyal customers are beta testers 😀

Definitely vapourware - the whole dancing bot sruff has gone quiet as well

The 8/8 stuff is just nonsense - released on the same day as the Reuters story. They’ll put a few cars on the road with insurance liability with another version of FSD in a tightly controlled geo fenced trial. They could probably do that today.
Say what you want out Reuters, an exclusive like that would have a very high bar to be published - usually treble reliable sources (which I believe they’ve said they had). The model 2 story is almost certainly true.

Re active robotaxi trials, I believe waymo and Criuse are shutting down trials not expanding.

The regulatory requirement on car companies that they accept insurance liability for Level 3 capable vehicles means that no one is rolling it out beyond some trials like the Mercedes one.

Tesla can’t accept widescale Level 3 insurance liability with any version of their non-Lidar FSD - that is beyond question according to people who work in this arena.

exactly my point. Imagine how far away we are from the likes of Tesla accepting insurance liability for your Irish model 3 with €15k of FSD, or whatever they’d have to charge to offset the insurance liability

Not while you have roads like this in the world

exactly my point - it’s years and years away, but peddled by the Tesla CEO as ‘available just around the corner’

A hook to keep the buyers happy and the SP propped up.
looks like the P/E is now down at 34 on TSLA, which if the vaporware stories keep getting airtime might hold up, but if the 2 is canned and the 3 and Y make do with refreshes at lower margins to push volumes, I think that 34 P/E has a lot of headwind.

Solar and energy might contribute more to the bottom line EPS sooner, but the product line up coming from Ai/FSD, robotics and Cybertruck/semi/roadster will be drops in the ocean really.

it really feels right now like the future is getting further and further away for Tesla.

there’s nothing in the pipeline that come remotely close to the revenue of the Y or the 3 - and that’s the biggest problem they have right now.

Depreciation on existing cars is likely to be less of an issue for those owners staying with Tesla. Yes their car has depreciated but price of new one has been slashed so cost to change is the relevant variable as distinct from cost of original car.

Those that complain about depreciation of their Tesla when switching to a new Tesla are purposely being selective. Price for a new Model Y is 15-20k cheaper than it was 2 years ago