Tesla Talk

Mike9832

Can we make this a general Tesla chat thread?

Tesla seem to be in free fall

Under 200 a share now

Anyone bought stock at this price?

Almost lowest in 5 years

Just bought 2 shares for the craic :pac:

Won't hold on to it for long lol, too volatile

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tesla-Faces-Herculean-Task-As-Share-Price-Tanks.html

I think this could be it for them

Sad if it ends like this, like there cars

We've been saying it for years, so who knows

Elon will have to go?

He's gone awol recently

Delusional taxi fleets/autopilot crap (that won't happen for at least 10 years).

A truck that can't possibly be made with current battery tech.

List goes on and on

Less than a year from now if VW are serious ( they might be ) this is going to leave Tesla as a smudge on the road.

slave1

I've always thought it was a natural extension for Toyota to purchase Tesla once their Market Value becomes affordable

thisonetaken

Analyst downgrades and lower price targets are coming left right and centre, which normally means it’s a great time to buy but this time feels different, so I’m holding off unless it drops another 20 percent or so. Musks insistence that he didn’t need to raise capital when the share price was 350 could be a fatal decision for the company. It almost feels like the shorts lured him into a trap, they knew if they insisted the company needed to raise money that Musk would not do so out of sheer pig headedness. Then he was eventually forced to raise money when the share price was much lower. I used to be Musks biggest fan but it’s got to the stage where he has become a liability for the company.

Mike9832

slave1 wrote: »

I've always thought it was a natural extension for Toyota to purchase Tesla once their Market Value becomes affordable

Yeah as part of the Lexus brand it would be make sense

Share price would have to plummet though for it to be value

As Tesla have nothing Toyota couldn't do themselves, sure Toyota are already a Panasonic battery partner

Mike9832

thisonetaken wrote: »

Analyst downgrades and lower price targets are coming left right and centre, which normally means it’s a great time to buy but this time feels different, so I’m holding off unless it drops another 20 percent or so. Musks insistence that he didn’t need to raise capital when the share price was 350 could be a fatal decision for the company. It almost feels like the shorts lured him into a trap, they knew if they insisted the company needed to raise money that Musk would not do so out of sheer pig headedness. Then he was eventually forced to raise money when the share price was much lower. I used to be Musks biggest fan but it’s got to the stage where he has become a liability for the company.

Agree

Apple or Google could make them incredible

Imagine the tech integration and media experience they could offer, flat screen's, media, maps, home features, autopilot ( once they figure it out in 10 years time )

An entry into a trillion dollar auto industry overnight

Doesn't need alot to make Tesla's incredible cars from where they are now, those companies have the resources and buying power for sure

Would hate to see the likes of VW or Toyota buy them, much prefer a new player like Apple, Google, Samsung etc

liamog

If Google bought Tesla it would be the end of private sales for them. Google's business is selling access to its users, they'd buy them for the robotaxi potential and then end private sales.

Mupchease

Everybody seams to forget Tesla isn’t just a company that sells cars.

slave1

Mupchease wrote: »

Everybody seams to forget Tesla isn’t just a company that sells cars.

True but it has not got the time or resources to move it's Tesla roof forward and the Tesla Wall uses the same batteries as the M3 and Semi and the wall supply suffers as a result with huge delays given the car takes priority

phantom_lord

The Roof is a fake product that will never make it to the mass market. Other parts of the business are just repackaged Panasonic batteries. Taking on Tesla debt plus liabilities doesn't make sense for most companies.

jusmeig

I think the recent "investment" in China could greatly help them.
They will make cars for cheaper, and sell into a much bigger market for higher margins.
This should help reduce the cash burn (but ironically is one reason it is accelerating)
Trump is REALLY making it difficult for them to operate...as he hates just about everything they stand for.

They should have taken capital 2 years ago to finance Model Y, Truck etc...but being stubborn has mean't they have had a rollercoaster ride in terms of profits. The death bell has rang many many times for Tesla. When they have exhausted their ability to raise capital, I would agree their time has come...but somehow, he always gets more!

Zenith74

I think this could be it for them

Personally think we're quite a long way from that. A companies poor share price tends to hurt them most when they need to raise money, because existing shareholders get more diluted than when the price was higher, particularly if there are any downround protective clauses in-place. But Tesla raised money only weeks ago, which buys them quite a bit of time (months not years though) to straighten things out - by which I mean get operational issues sorted out, get sales numbers into a consistent pattern etc.

Also think there is still a huge amount of interest in Tesla, they're not a company making something that is going out of fashion or is boring, so I don't see them having issues raising more money. And keep in-mind for new investors getting in at this point, a low share price is fantastic news if you think the company has potential. An institutional investor getting in today would get shares well below $200, knowing they've been to $400 before. Hell think back a few months and Elon was going to try and take the company private at $420 per share, it could probably be done for $220 a share today, which would be ~£30bn cheaper to do!

phantom_lord

I don't see them having issues raising more money.

They just raised at 240 2.5 weeks ago, and it's trading 18x, with a result like that, who's going to want to get involved in another raise?

And the underwriters have all revised their price targets. You'd have to be a complete mug to go for a another round.

Zenith74

phantom_lord wrote: »

They just raised at 240 2.5 weeks ago, and it's trading 18x, with a result like that, who's going to want to get involved in another raise?

And the underwriters have all revised their price targets. You'd have to be a complete mug to go for a another round.

This is where I think these discussions tend to go a bit awry. Mike9832 and I are looking at the move from 240 to 190 and then looking at our online share portfolios every morning thinking whether it was a mistake etc etc. We're retail investors who care about the day-to-day stock movements.

The majority of the recent cash raise was for effectively 5 year bonds, those people don't care that the share price went down 2 weeks later, it's irrelevant. They'll have spent hundreds of thousands doing due diligence on the company, the market etc. before investing billions of dollars; they don't log into InteractiveInvestor 2 weeks later and think to themselves they got it all wrong, shoulda listened to @user1234 on Twitter instead of doing all that DD.

Big investors like this invest the way we all should, but generally don't: based on facts, no emotions and long-term. They spend huge sums of money on due diligence, they invest, and they forget about it for a period of years or until an event happens.

phantom_lord

Zenith74 wrote: »

This is where I think these discussions tend to go a bit awry. Mike9832 and I are looking at the move from 240 to 190 and then looking at our online share portfolios every morning thinking whether it was a mistake etc etc. We're retail investors who care about the day-to-day stock movements.

The majority of the recent cash raise was for effectively 5 year bonds, those people don't care that the share price went down 2 weeks later, it's irrelevant. They'll have spent hundreds of thousands doing due diligence on the company, the market etc. before investing billions of dollars; they don't log into InteractiveInvestor 2 weeks later and think to themselves they got it all wrong, shoulda listened to @user1234 on Twitter instead of doing all that DD.

Big investors like this invest the way we all should, but generally don't: based on facts, no emotions and long-term. They spend huge sums of money on due diligence, they invest, and they forget about it for a period of years or until an event happens.

The bond is trading at <82, they care where that is.

Tesla survived on it's high share price and growth story, now both of those look doubtful. It's going to be a very very hard sell to do another raise just after such a failure of one. A deeply discounted raise might even put Musk in margin call territory. It's going to be tough to find underwriters willing to do a raise near this price.

Zenith74

phantom_lord wrote: »

The bond is trading at <82, they care where that is.

Tesla survived on it's high share price and growth story, now both of those look doubtful. It's going to be a very very hard sell to do another raise just after such a failure of one. A deeply discounted raise might even put Musk in margin call territory. It's going to be tough to find underwriters willing to do a raise near this price.

Sorry I threw in the 'effectively' there just to simplify the discussion. According to Mike's link they issued convertible loan notes, not bonds, which won't be trading or have any public price at the moment. The share price will matter in 5 years when they are deciding whether to convert or not. In the meantime it matters little, unless it starts to cause the company problems - which of course it could. I'm just making the point that the investors who supplied money 2 weeks ago are not looking at the share price today, like Mike or I might be on our share portfolio apps.

Don't think there's any value to you and I debating the possible growth of the company here, I don't follow Tesla closely enough to really know what they promised, whether the miss in growth is likely to be short/long term. Again my point is just that the institutional investors who will have spent hundreds of thousands on DD to invest 2 weeks ago will not have changed their mind on their view of the likely growth, in 2 frickin weeks, that is silly. Of course they could be wrong in their predictions, but that's a different discussion.

iniall

Mike9832 wrote: »

Agree

Apple or Google could make them incredible

Imagine the tech integration and media experience they could offer, flat screen's, media, maps, home features, autopilot ( once they figure it out in 10 years time )

An entry into a trillion dollar auto industry overnight

Doesn't need alot to make Tesla's incredible cars from where they are now, those companies have the resources and buying power for sure

Would hate to see the likes of VW or Toyota buy them, much prefer a new player like Apple, Google, Samsung etc

If "an analyst" is to be believed, Apple did seriously consider buying them 6 years ago:

https://appleinsider.com/articles/19/05/21/apple-made-informal-bid-to-buy-tesla-at-240-per-share-in-2013

unkel

Gigafactory 3 (China) well on the way, exterior nearly complete.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSXmPZUJ3Yo

TSLA is on a bit of a rally this week. I thought the stock price was right on Tuesday after the slide to $180ish and bought first time ever some shares. The stock has gained about 15 percent since then so looks like it was a good call. Should have bought more.

Apparently the long waited (in US) pickup truck will be revealed at the end of the month and the target price is $49k for a typical spec and less for a bare bones model.

Sabre Man

For share talk there is also:
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057581204

jhegarty

Not sure how long they have been up , but several new "coming soon" superchargers up on the map.

macnab

jhegarty wrote: »

Not sure how long they have been up , but several new "coming soon" superchargers up on the map.

Any links?

jhegarty

macnab wrote: »

Any links?

Official page : https://www.tesla.com/findus/supercharger/Ireland

sk8board

samih wrote: »

TSLA is on a bit of a rally this week. I thought the stock price was right on Tuesday after the slide to $180ish and bought first time ever some shares. The stock has gained about 15 percent since then so looks like it was a good call. Should have bought more.

Apparently the long waited (in US) pickup truck will be revealed at the end of the month and the target price is $49k for a typical spec and less for a bare bones model.

The shares were up on Q2 deliveries hitting their target and slightly better than expected model 3 sales in the US (66,000).
The truck hype train is just that, hype. Tesla seem to announce another car every time the shares are tanking (new Model S in September?), but hype only provides a dead cat bounce until the next financials are published.
Deliveries are all that matters - to my mind the most critical issue is unit price. They are running out of fanboys and early adopters to sell to, hence the recent price drops and opening in new markets.

ELM327

jhegarty wrote: »

Official page : https://www.tesla.com/findus/supercharger/Ireland

Galway, Cork and Sandyford are new, they were not there last time I looked




This thread will be hilarious in 5-10 years time.


Tesla will either be super profitable on its own or (more likely IMO) be bought by someone not currently in the mobility space with a large cash pile and a reputation for closed loop e2e systems with proprietary connectors different to the industry standard. Ahem, APPLE. :P

copeyhagen

2015 used model s 85d or new model 3.

what would you go for an why...

personally I prefer the looks of the S, but the tech of the M3

sk8board

sk8board wrote: »

The shares were up on Q2 deliveries hitting their target and slightly better than expected model 3 sales in the US (66,000).
The truck hype train is just that, hype. Tesla seem to announce another car every time the shares are tanking (new Model S in September?), but hype only provides a dead cat bounce until the next financials are published.
Deliveries are all that matters - to my mind the most critical issue is unit price. They are running out of fanboys and early adopters to sell to, hence the recent price drops and opening in new markets.

I see in Ireland a drop of over 50% in sales on last year. Aware that there will be some - a couple of hundred maybe? that will deliver for the new model later in the year, but once those are done who is left to buy?

ELM327

copeyhagen wrote: »

2015 used model s 85d or new model 3.

what would you go for an why...

personally I prefer the looks of the S, but the tech of the M3

3
/thread




Really there is no comparison, the 3 is a full generation ahead of a 2015 S. Even with Ap1, that is a limited ring fenced tech which is not being improved upon.
The 3 has HW3

unkel

I feel an early Model S is overpriced at this stage. 5, nearly 6 years old, with asking prices of €50k, no thanks

For €30k, maybe.

I'm waiting. Not very patiently, but waiting anyway

copeyhagen

theres a few in the uk around the 35/36 sterling mark. 85s

unkel

I could have got an S85 very desirable spec (AP, 7-seats, dual charger, air suspension, with several years Tesla full CPO warrranty remaining) on Irish 142 reg for €40k, but this was several thousand more than I was willing to pay for it. They will come down quite a bit before this time next year, I'd say.

zilog_jones

slave1 wrote: »

I've always thought it was a natural extension for Toyota to purchase Tesla once their Market Value becomes affordable

Toyota have never acquired a non-Japanese company (from what I can see) and I don't think they would be interested in some headcase business like Tesla. Their last major acquisition was Daihatsu in 2016 after they were struggling, whom they had already been working with (and were a major shareholder) for nearly 50 years. I think they are a very conservative company and won't just jump on a competitor like that.

If another car manufacturer was going to acquire Tesla, I'd say it's much more likely to be someone like Ford, FCA (if they have any money!) or PSA as they're all well behind in the EV scene.

Dont be at yourself

Amazon's a reasonable shout as an acquirer -- they've already invested in Rivian, not averse to huge capital expenditure, the semi could complement their expanding logistics ambitions, and autonomous driving could help solve the last mile in delivery too.

Still more likely they remain independent -- Musk doesn't have any problem raising money.

sk8board

unkel wrote: »

I could have got an S85 very desirable spec (AP, 7-seats, dual charger, air suspension, with several years Tesla full CPO warrranty remaining) on Irish 142 reg for €40k, but this was several thousand more than I was willing to pay for it. They will come down quite a bit before this time next year, I'd say.

Would you buy a RWD model S though?

those non-D old Tesla’s cost a lot in (expensive) tyres - and if the internet is to be believed they burn through them VERY quickly, given the car weight and instant torque on those back wheels.

Save on dino-juice, but spend it all on rubber.

unkel

sk8board wrote: »

Would you buy a RWD model S though?

Sure. I actually don't really like AWD. Takes the spirit out of driving. And in this country you don't need it either.

The cost of tyres would be the least of my worries if I bought an aging out of warranty Tesla Model S

copeyhagen

4 year old cars are hardly aging!

im tempted to go for a model s, 2015 with AP1. nicer looking imo, has all the agdgets required, autonomous drive is a LONG way off, im sure i will end up with another tesla by then.

free supercharging for life, obv an 85d would be the minimum to go for im guessing.

motorway trips would be nice with the free supercharging.

unkel

copeyhagen wrote: »

4 year old cars are hardly aging!

Generally I would agree with that. But first generation Tesla Model S were poorly build with poor reliability, many needing eye wateringly expensive parts replaced. Now they were all under warranty so didn't cost the owner anything, but the 4+ year old cars are now out of warranty. That would worry me

That said battery and drivetrain are under warranty for 8 years

caff

Haven't made the change to any eV yet, personally I expect battery prices not capacities to plunge in comparison to a semiconductor nm tech switch. So as more eV battery fabs come online the prices will tank. Some research show huge fabs been constructed in China Europe japan Taiwan and US. Once they start hitting the market in 18 months I can't see 50k cars as competitive. Small eV hatches 35 - 40 kW should be around 20k

jhegarty

unkel wrote: »

I feel an early Model S is overpriced at this stage. 5, nearly 6 years old, with asking prices of €50k, no thanks

For €30k, maybe.

I'm waiting. Not very patiently, but waiting anyway

I am waiting with you. There has to be a drop on the way one the model 3 is available in the uk.

£25k for an AP1 is my trigger.

unkel

I don't really know what my trigger is. I would have gone €37k for the 7-seater AP1 high spec model on Irish 142 plate with several years of Tesla full warranty left a few weeks ago

No warranty (except drivetrain) 7-seater AP1 don't care about the rest of spec from the UK I guess including an unfair but realistic €2k VRT would mean GBP25k = EUR28k + 2k VRT = EUR30k

I'm with you there on your GBP25k so. Slightly more if I was confident I could successfully fight the VRT payment and get a full refund. No VRT is due after all on EVs worth (OMSP) less than EUR35k in Ireland

I guess we will have to wait either way, jhegarty

Tuned in via YouTube and it was pretty interesting investor event last night. Self driving feature complete sometime in 2019(*) and launching fleetwide "in 2020(*)" for any cars with AP computer version 3 which is 21 times faster than the currently shipping Nvidia AP2 computer. Cars made after November 2016 are all compatible with AP3 computer so Tesla will potentially have a robotaxi fleet of 1 million cars by that time. Legislation is lagging behind so needs to be addressed first. Musk drives the latest development versions of full self drive and summon and admitted that "they are not ready for deployment quite yet" but that they operate on totally different level from the competition and once the product is ready it will be able drive on any road (or other drivable surfaces) anywhere on earth.

A not so subtle dig to Audi SUV's efficiency. "Oh E-tron... etron, if you speak French you get it". And that 2012 Model S 85 has still longer range than the next best competitor in 2019.

Lots of questions from the investors about negative publicity and Elon seemed a bit lost on how to deal with it. Bloomberg was mentioned, i.e. Musk should have a chat with him. Also somebody from the odeon suggested a Tesla myth rebuttal page which was received well. Marketing is pointless as it's wasting money and Tesla sells any vehicles they can manufacture regardless. The same reason was given about moving to Indian market: too much bureaucracy for what it's worth. Can't currently make enough cars to serve the other markets.

More global factories a key to cater for the demand and to shorten the time from manufacture to money in due to long delivery times to international markets as well as to combat import duties and taxes. Europe site will be next but location is not selected yet. He hinted something about Germany I think. It's balancing act as expanding too rapidly will lead the company running out of money but they will have to expand rapidly enough to cater for the global markets. The Chinese GF building itself has now been completed and the process installation is on the way.

Tesla won't be able launch more models before manufacturing is sorted out. Both battery cell and vehicle/battery pack capacity needed to launch both Model Y and the Semi. Pickup Truck will be revealed by the end of the summer and can do anyting than a F150 can do but better. Model Y according to Musk has market potential of 290% over the Model 3 which sounds about right. There are lots of customers who need more seats or a hatchback for a dog etc. etc. He said that they have a conservative estimation of Model Y volume production by end of 2020 but likely before that sometime in next summer.

Musk seem to still be burning the candle from both ends. The delivery of facts and projection was typical Musk genius style. Love or loathe. I have been a fan since Model X lauch event.

(*) Elon time so there could be a delay.

jusmeig

In relation to GF China, finished means just the very small portion they are using for 3 production? They surely have not build that big yoke from the render with the tapered corners in 6 months?

jusmeig

jusmeig wrote: »

In relation to GF China, finished means just the very small portion they are using for 3 production? They surely have not build that big yoke from the render with the tapered corners in 6 months?

Musk mentioned that the factory building itself has been completed and that it has a yearly capacity of half a million cars or a bit more which would be currently 23% (I think that was the number) of the total Chinese BEV market. One of the questions was that will that be enough for China and the answer was that Tesla may have to build another factory in some other place than Shanghai in China due to the logistics (again). Nothing was mentioned about further building work needed in Shanghai, just the assembly lines under construction now.

Model 3 will be initial product and as communicated before I suspect the cars will be shipped not only to China but other regions too until the local giga factories have been built to Europe and other locations. And moving lots of Model 3 production in China will free space in Fremont for production of new cars like the Model Y.

Mike9832

samih wrote: »

jusmeig wrote: »

In relation to GF China, finished means just the very small portion they are using for 3 production? They surely have not build that big yoke from the render with the tapered corners in 6 months?

Musk mentioned that the factory building itself has been completed and that it has a yearly capacity of half a million cars or a bit more which would be currently 23% (I think that was the number) of the total Chinese BEV market. One of the questions was that will that be enough for China and the answer was that Tesla may have to build another factory in some other place than Shanghai in China due to the logistics (again). Nothing was mentioned about further building work needed in Shanghai, just the assembly lines under construction now.

Model 3 will be initial product and as communicated before I suspect the cars will be shipped not only to China but other regions too until the local giga factories have been built to Europe and other locations. And moving lots of Model 3 production in China will free space in Fremont for production of new cars like the Model Y.

Could they do European production in China?

Surely cheaper than doing it in the US?

Mike9832

Mike9832 wrote: »

Could they do European production in China?

Surely cheaper than doing it in the US?

Makes sense to ship them from the location that has lowest import duties. Not sure how US/China compare in that respect but the production cost will be somewhat cheaper in Shanghai both due to cheaper labour and more optimised production due to learnings from US factories.

Sabre Man

Mike9832 wrote: »

Could they do European production in China?

Surely cheaper than doing it in the US?

Elon has said that won't happen, so unless he changes his mind I don't see it happening.

ELM327

Sabre Man wrote: »

Elon has said that won't happen, so unless he changes his mind I don't see it happening.

And of course Elon is not known to be volatile. :pac::D

Sabre Man

ELM327 wrote: »

And of course Elon is not known to be volatile. :pac::D

Even so I don't see it happening. By the time the Chinese GF is up and running properly, which will take many months, Tesla may be building a GF in Europe.

September1

I think Volvo makes S90 in China so it may be beneficial. It could make delivery of custom models faster, as there is decent ground link to Europe.

copeyhagen

there's not a hope that the autonomous driving will happen in the next 5 years surely?

beanian

copeyhagen wrote: »

there's not a hope that the autonomous driving will happen in the next 5 years surely?

I would almost bet my house on it. Have you seen the Tesla Driver UK videos on youtube? Autopilot seems to struggle on anything but ideal driving conditions (i.e motorways, dual carraigeways etc).
Even the latest video of Advanced summon doesnt look promising. It drives in a straight line from where it was parked to where the driver is standing, driving across other parking spots etc.
How they can say FSD is next year is beyond me.

ELM327

I think they will be on HW5 before FSD fully comes in.