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Tesla Talk

  • 22-05-2019 5:32pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭ Mike9832


    Can we make this a general Tesla chat thread?

    Tesla seem to be in free fall

    Under 200 a share now

    Anyone bought stock at this price?

    Almost lowest in 5 years

    Just bought 2 shares for the craic :pac:

    Won't hold on to it for long lol, too volatile

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tesla-Faces-Herculean-Task-As-Share-Price-Tanks.html

    I think this could be it for them

    Sad if it ends like this, like there cars

    We've been saying it for years, so who knows

    Elon will have to go?

    He's gone awol recently

    Delusional taxi fleets/autopilot crap (that won't happen for at least 10 years).

    A truck that can't possibly be made with current battery tech.

    List goes on and on

    Less than a year from now if VW are serious ( they might be :) ) this is going to leave Tesla as a smudge on the road.


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Comments

  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,097 Mod ✭✭✭✭ slave1


    I've always thought it was a natural extension for Toyota to purchase Tesla once their Market Value becomes affordable


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 236 ✭✭ thisonetaken


    Analyst downgrades and lower price targets are coming left right and centre, which normally means it’s a great time to buy but this time feels different, so I’m holding off unless it drops another 20 percent or so. Musks insistence that he didn’t need to raise capital when the share price was 350 could be a fatal decision for the company. It almost feels like the shorts lured him into a trap, they knew if they insisted the company needed to raise money that Musk would not do so out of sheer pig headedness. Then he was eventually forced to raise money when the share price was much lower. I used to be Musks biggest fan but it’s got to the stage where he has become a liability for the company.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭ Mike9832


    slave1 wrote: »
    I've always thought it was a natural extension for Toyota to purchase Tesla once their Market Value becomes affordable

    Yeah as part of the Lexus brand it would be make sense

    Share price would have to plummet though for it to be value

    As Tesla have nothing Toyota couldn't do themselves, sure Toyota are already a Panasonic battery partner


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭ Mike9832


    Analyst downgrades and lower price targets are coming left right and centre, which normally means it’s a great time to buy but this time feels different, so I’m holding off unless it drops another 20 percent or so. Musks insistence that he didn’t need to raise capital when the share price was 350 could be a fatal decision for the company. It almost feels like the shorts lured him into a trap, they knew if they insisted the company needed to raise money that Musk would not do so out of sheer pig headedness. Then he was eventually forced to raise money when the share price was much lower. I used to be Musks biggest fan but it’s got to the stage where he has become a liability for the company.

    Agree

    Apple or Google could make them incredible

    Imagine the tech integration and media experience they could offer, flat screen's, media, maps, home features, autopilot ( once they figure it out in 10 years time )

    An entry into a trillion dollar auto industry overnight

    Doesn't need alot to make Tesla's incredible cars from where they are now, those companies have the resources and buying power for sure

    Would hate to see the likes of VW or Toyota buy them, much prefer a new player like Apple, Google, Samsung etc


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 6,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭ liamog


    If Google bought Tesla it would be the end of private sales for them. Google's business is selling access to its users, they'd buy them for the robotaxi potential and then end private sales.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭ Mupchease


    Everybody seams to forget Tesla isn’t just a company that sells cars.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,097 Mod ✭✭✭✭ slave1


    Mupchease wrote: »
    Everybody seams to forget Tesla isn’t just a company that sells cars.

    True but it has not got the time or resources to move it's Tesla roof forward and the Tesla Wall uses the same batteries as the M3 and Semi and the wall supply suffers as a result with huge delays given the car takes priority


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,928 ✭✭✭✭ phantom_lord


    The Roof is a fake product that will never make it to the mass market. Other parts of the business are just repackaged Panasonic batteries. Taking on Tesla debt plus liabilities doesn't make sense for most companies.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,180 ✭✭✭ jusmeig


    I think the recent "investment" in China could greatly help them.
    They will make cars for cheaper, and sell into a much bigger market for higher margins.
    This should help reduce the cash burn (but ironically is one reason it is accelerating)
    Trump is REALLY making it difficult for them to operate...as he hates just about everything they stand for.

    They should have taken capital 2 years ago to finance Model Y, Truck etc...but being stubborn has mean't they have had a rollercoaster ride in terms of profits. The death bell has rang many many times for Tesla. When they have exhausted their ability to raise capital, I would agree their time has come...but somehow, he always gets more!


  • Registered Users Posts: 737 ✭✭✭ Zenith74


    I think this could be it for them
    Personally think we're quite a long way from that. A companies poor share price tends to hurt them most when they need to raise money, because existing shareholders get more diluted than when the price was higher, particularly if there are any downround protective clauses in-place. But Tesla raised money only weeks ago, which buys them quite a bit of time (months not years though) to straighten things out - by which I mean get operational issues sorted out, get sales numbers into a consistent pattern etc.

    Also think there is still a huge amount of interest in Tesla, they're not a company making something that is going out of fashion or is boring, so I don't see them having issues raising more money. And keep in-mind for new investors getting in at this point, a low share price is fantastic news if you think the company has potential. An institutional investor getting in today would get shares well below $200, knowing they've been to $400 before. Hell think back a few months and Elon was going to try and take the company private at $420 per share, it could probably be done for $220 a share today, which would be ~£30bn cheaper to do!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,928 ✭✭✭✭ phantom_lord


    I don't see them having issues raising more money.
    They just raised at 240 2.5 weeks ago, and it's trading 18x, with a result like that, who's going to want to get involved in another raise?

    And the underwriters have all revised their price targets. You'd have to be a complete mug to go for a another round.


  • Registered Users Posts: 737 ✭✭✭ Zenith74


    They just raised at 240 2.5 weeks ago, and it's trading 18x, with a result like that, who's going to want to get involved in another raise?

    And the underwriters have all revised their price targets. You'd have to be a complete mug to go for a another round.

    This is where I think these discussions tend to go a bit awry. Mike9832 and I are looking at the move from 240 to 190 and then looking at our online share portfolios every morning thinking whether it was a mistake etc etc. We're retail investors who care about the day-to-day stock movements.

    The majority of the recent cash raise was for effectively 5 year bonds, those people don't care that the share price went down 2 weeks later, it's irrelevant. They'll have spent hundreds of thousands doing due diligence on the company, the market etc. before investing billions of dollars; they don't log into InteractiveInvestor 2 weeks later and think to themselves they got it all wrong, shoulda listened to @user1234 on Twitter instead of doing all that DD.

    Big investors like this invest the way we all should, but generally don't: based on facts, no emotions and long-term. They spend huge sums of money on due diligence, they invest, and they forget about it for a period of years or until an event happens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,928 ✭✭✭✭ phantom_lord


    Zenith74 wrote: »
    This is where I think these discussions tend to go a bit awry. Mike9832 and I are looking at the move from 240 to 190 and then looking at our online share portfolios every morning thinking whether it was a mistake etc etc. We're retail investors who care about the day-to-day stock movements.

    The majority of the recent cash raise was for effectively 5 year bonds, those people don't care that the share price went down 2 weeks later, it's irrelevant. They'll have spent hundreds of thousands doing due diligence on the company, the market etc. before investing billions of dollars; they don't log into InteractiveInvestor 2 weeks later and think to themselves they got it all wrong, shoulda listened to @user1234 on Twitter instead of doing all that DD.

    Big investors like this invest the way we all should, but generally don't: based on facts, no emotions and long-term. They spend huge sums of money on due diligence, they invest, and they forget about it for a period of years or until an event happens.

    The bond is trading at <82, they care where that is.

    Tesla survived on it's high share price and growth story, now both of those look doubtful. It's going to be a very very hard sell to do another raise just after such a failure of one. A deeply discounted raise might even put Musk in margin call territory. It's going to be tough to find underwriters willing to do a raise near this price.


  • Registered Users Posts: 737 ✭✭✭ Zenith74


    The bond is trading at <82, they care where that is.

    Tesla survived on it's high share price and growth story, now both of those look doubtful. It's going to be a very very hard sell to do another raise just after such a failure of one. A deeply discounted raise might even put Musk in margin call territory. It's going to be tough to find underwriters willing to do a raise near this price.

    Sorry I threw in the 'effectively' there just to simplify the discussion. According to Mike's link they issued convertible loan notes, not bonds, which won't be trading or have any public price at the moment. The share price will matter in 5 years when they are deciding whether to convert or not. In the meantime it matters little, unless it starts to cause the company problems - which of course it could. I'm just making the point that the investors who supplied money 2 weeks ago are not looking at the share price today, like Mike or I might be on our share portfolio apps.

    Don't think there's any value to you and I debating the possible growth of the company here, I don't follow Tesla closely enough to really know what they promised, whether the miss in growth is likely to be short/long term. Again my point is just that the institutional investors who will have spent hundreds of thousands on DD to invest 2 weeks ago will not have changed their mind on their view of the likely growth, in 2 frickin weeks, that is silly. Of course they could be wrong in their predictions, but that's a different discussion.


  • Registered Users Posts: 507 ✭✭✭ iniall


    Mike9832 wrote: »
    Agree

    Apple or Google could make them incredible

    Imagine the tech integration and media experience they could offer, flat screen's, media, maps, home features, autopilot ( once they figure it out in 10 years time )

    An entry into a trillion dollar auto industry overnight

    Doesn't need alot to make Tesla's incredible cars from where they are now, those companies have the resources and buying power for sure

    Would hate to see the likes of VW or Toyota buy them, much prefer a new player like Apple, Google, Samsung etc

    If "an analyst" is to be believed, Apple did seriously consider buying them 6 years ago:

    https://appleinsider.com/articles/19/05/21/apple-made-informal-bid-to-buy-tesla-at-240-per-share-in-2013


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,907 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    Gigafactory 3 (China) well on the way, exterior nearly complete.

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,797 samih


    TSLA is on a bit of a rally this week. I thought the stock price was right on Tuesday after the slide to $180ish and bought first time ever some shares. The stock has gained about 15 percent since then so looks like it was a good call. Should have bought more.

    Apparently the long waited (in US) pickup truck will be revealed at the end of the month and the target price is $49k for a typical spec and less for a bare bones model.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭ Sabre Man




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,396 ✭✭✭ jhegarty


    Not sure how long they have been up , but several new "coming soon" superchargers up on the map.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,502 ✭✭✭ macnab


    jhegarty wrote: »
    Not sure how long they have been up , but several new "coming soon" superchargers up on the map.

    Any links?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,396 ✭✭✭ jhegarty


    macnab wrote: »
    Any links?

    Official page : https://www.tesla.com/findus/supercharger/Ireland


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,207 ✭✭✭ sk8board


    samih wrote: »
    TSLA is on a bit of a rally this week. I thought the stock price was right on Tuesday after the slide to $180ish and bought first time ever some shares. The stock has gained about 15 percent since then so looks like it was a good call. Should have bought more.

    Apparently the long waited (in US) pickup truck will be revealed at the end of the month and the target price is $49k for a typical spec and less for a bare bones model.

    The shares were up on Q2 deliveries hitting their target and slightly better than expected model 3 sales in the US (66,000).
    The truck hype train is just that, hype. Tesla seem to announce another car every time the shares are tanking (new Model S in September?), but hype only provides a dead cat bounce until the next financials are published.
    Deliveries are all that matters - to my mind the most critical issue is unit price. They are running out of fanboys and early adopters to sell to, hence the recent price drops and opening in new markets.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,948 ✭✭✭✭ ELM327


    jhegarty wrote: »
    Galway, Cork and Sandyford are new, they were not there last time I looked




    This thread will be hilarious in 5-10 years time.


    Tesla will either be super profitable on its own or (more likely IMO) be bought by someone not currently in the mobility space with a large cash pile and a reputation for closed loop e2e systems with proprietary connectors different to the industry standard. Ahem, APPLE. :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,522 ✭✭✭ copeyhagen


    2015 used model s 85d or new model 3.

    what would you go for an why...

    personally I prefer the looks of the S, but the tech of the M3


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,801 ✭✭✭ LorenzoB


    sk8board wrote: »
    The shares were up on Q2 deliveries hitting their target and slightly better than expected model 3 sales in the US (66,000).
    The truck hype train is just that, hype. Tesla seem to announce another car every time the shares are tanking (new Model S in September?), but hype only provides a dead cat bounce until the next financials are published.
    Deliveries are all that matters - to my mind the most critical issue is unit price. They are running out of fanboys and early adopters to sell to, hence the recent price drops and opening in new markets.

    I see in Ireland a drop of over 50% in sales on last year. Aware that there will be some - a couple of hundred maybe? that will deliver for the new model later in the year, but once those are done who is left to buy?


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,948 ✭✭✭✭ ELM327


    copeyhagen wrote: »
    2015 used model s 85d or new model 3.

    what would you go for an why...

    personally I prefer the looks of the S, but the tech of the M3
    3
    /thread




    Really there is no comparison, the 3 is a full generation ahead of a 2015 S. Even with Ap1, that is a limited ring fenced tech which is not being improved upon.
    The 3 has HW3


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,907 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    I feel an early Model S is overpriced at this stage. 5, nearly 6 years old, with asking prices of €50k, no thanks

    For €30k, maybe.

    I'm waiting. Not very patiently, but waiting anyway :p

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,522 ✭✭✭ copeyhagen


    theres a few in the uk around the 35/36 sterling mark. 85s


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,907 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    I could have got an S85 very desirable spec (AP, 7-seats, dual charger, air suspension, with several years Tesla full CPO warrranty remaining) on Irish 142 reg for €40k, but this was several thousand more than I was willing to pay for it. They will come down quite a bit before this time next year, I'd say.

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,632 ✭✭✭ zilog_jones


    slave1 wrote: »
    I've always thought it was a natural extension for Toyota to purchase Tesla once their Market Value becomes affordable

    Toyota have never acquired a non-Japanese company (from what I can see) and I don't think they would be interested in some headcase business like Tesla. Their last major acquisition was Daihatsu in 2016 after they were struggling, whom they had already been working with (and were a major shareholder) for nearly 50 years. I think they are a very conservative company and won't just jump on a competitor like that.

    If another car manufacturer was going to acquire Tesla, I'd say it's much more likely to be someone like Ford, FCA (if they have any money!) or PSA as they're all well behind in the EV scene.


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