Falling House Prices

There ia also a low supply of houses, so it is difficult to take advantage of any price drops. The shortage of properties on the market is also ost acute at the lower end. This is where most first time buyers are looking.

Let's see how October will look. Summer months are always busy especially when supply is so low so people bidding themselves like mad. They may wake up later from their hangover.

I notice on another group a lot of people complaining that the mortgage that they could well afford 2 years ago now they are worried they can't sustain.

No evidence on the ground, anything I'm looking at is still going way above asking.

no price drop in south co. Dublin anyway... all houses we viewed recently are well above asking price now.

Living in the Midlands and a house 200 metres from us just sold. Bungalow, approx 1500 sq ft, good condition and on a good sized site with a large back garden. Was on for €279 and sold for over €320.

Yeah, I think the point is that asking price is subjectively set by the seller and their agent. Its not actually a defintion of what the market will pay for it.

We for example listed at about 7% below what we wanted to get, fully expecting a bidding war of sorts to get to our target.

Sale agreed at asking +10%.

Are you still interested?

I've been looking the last twelve months in the 300-400k market, and prices have stopped falling once the 4x mortgages kicked in. First few months of the year there were certain roads starting to come into my budget. The same roads are gone way over 400k now. Like you say, depends on the price range you're looking at. There's been a pronounced uptick during the summer months is my experience. Maybe the falls they're reporting are inflation adjusted but the problem there is that nobody's mortgage offer is.

I dunno, a friend of mine was.bidding against an investor, up to 830,000.

Investor dropped out and new bidder came along, she dropped out then.

4 bed semi in normal housing estate in templeogue

Nothing much has really moved from unaffordable to affordable all of a sudden so it won't have a real effect felt by the masses of people looking to buy.

When prices are shooting up people postpone buying a house because of inflated prices. The same people then refuse to buy when prices dip because of uncertainty, interest rates, or because their job situation no longer allows them to.

Well, prices are not lower yet, they don't just crash. It will take a solid year or two of a downward trend to at least make a dent in 10 years of house price inflation.

Outside of Dublin there has been consistent price increases over the last few years. Demand still far outstrips supply - especially in the small house segment.

Our sale has gone 25% over the asking price out in Roscommon and there are a queue of buyers waiting. So house price inflation is still the norm anywhere but Dublin.

Even the prices crash, the overall trend is upwards. Case in point, in 1997, my parents sold their Dublin 3 home for 75k pounds. The same house was worth nearly half a million euros ten years later, and never got below 200k during the crash. The same house is today worth over 600k based on what properties nearby are going for.

I don't think we'll see another 2008 style crash. It was a very different set of circumstances

What are these three areas?

It will take a solid year of an economic crash where most of the country will either be out of work or too worried about being out of work to even be interested on buying a cheap house. I just saw an apartment that I was afraid to buy for €80k when I had 100k cash available and a good safe job ,to buy it for an investment it back in 2013 on the market. Its for sale now for almost €300k and will go for more.

Prices have effectively been falling according to RPI data from CSO for the last 9 months on a month over month basis. Prices in June were 3.9% lower than last September.

However in the most recent data (released last week) there was a slight increase (0.3%) over the previous month. It is very fair to say, based on the most complete data we have (i.e. from CSO), that prices have been significantly decreasing (3.9%% over last 9 months). Summer months usually see a slightly higher uptick in prices so the most recent data could be as a result of that. The RPI for September will be telling as could show either a continuation of the downward trend or that a bottom has been reached and prices are either stable or growing.

On the ground it may feel different (properties going for over asking etc.) but the actual data is pointing to steady decline.

As far as i can see everybody wants to buy a house. Until most of them lose their jobs and enough of them cant buy, I dont thing we will see any significant drops. Ive a friend waiting for the drop to buy since he sold his house in 2015 i think it was. Every year he keeps saying its going to be next year.

Net immigration of 61,000 people to Ireland in 2022 increased from 2021, and unemployment decreased and sitting at a little over 4%

20,000 fewer houses built last year than Simon Coveney says that we need.

We would need a serious economic downturn to reduce demand and reduce house prices by anything significant.

I'm not surprised that doubling interest rates has moved the needle, but renting is only getting worse and pushing people to buy before they would naturally begin to look. Also, culturally, same as 2006-08, when all everyone talks about is buying, all everyone wants to do is buy.

given all predictions homes are going to be worth more to people than many other assets. AI is seriously going to disrupt the work force. property is a long term investment that people misunderstood as a short term investment and it was working. There aren't enough workers to build property and high earning IT jobs are going to seriously constrict. There are so many unions for other roles that IT is going to suffer the most due to the costs. Tons of admin jobs could technically be eliminated very quickly but the unions can slow that. AI is going to be cheaper than off shoring.

The industrial revolution was a lot slower than what is happening now. What is happening now is a game changer to so much. AI built properties on greenfield sites is very close to workable.

While supply has been slightly edging up again in Dublin, all open days are crazy. Record prices on every road/estate especially around goatstown/windy arbour and terenure d6w etc.

at these levels D4 is mighty attractive comparatively

There will likely be a floor on the lower end due to government intervention and schemes.

We're looking to buy our second home and I'm starting to get the ball rolling now as prices are tentatively showing signs of turning.

Im in no rush so could be another 24 months before we actually buy. I was in the exact same financial position last year and the year before that but I didn't bother because prices were only going one way.

I'm 100% trying to time the market as best I can because I'm in a position too. I doubt anyone genuinely needing to buy would postpone purchasing because of prices. How could they? You either need to buy a house or you dont.