Falling House Prices

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121062881#Comment_121062881

Not everyone can afford to "wait" as many the person in my example above will tell you.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121062881#Comment_121062881

While it might be true, it's definitely not practical.

You buy when you need to buy. No sense putting your relationships and starting a family on holsld because you're trying to save a few thousand on timing the market. You can only see the peaks and troughs of the market 2 years later.

People in 2008 didn't know it was a bad time to buy. People in 2012 didn't know it was a great time to buy.

People have been saying the market crash is just around the corner for the past 6 years. Boards.ie is proof of this, you can go back and read the posts.

I bought a house last year. Advice was not to do it. Prices will come down. Well, prices haven't budged but my interest rate would be 2% higher and cost me an extra 5k a year. Go figure.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121063439#Comment_121063439

Very true what you are saying. Sometimes you just have to buy.

Really depends on your circumstances but if you wait it can save you not few thousands but perhaps 100k or 150k. That is not to be sniffed at.

Also yes you did buy last year and you are sitting pretty this year but we don't know maybe in 2 years time, you won't sit pretty with your monthly mortgage payments. So this year you saved 5 k a year because you bought last year but it doesn't mean following year will be the same. Yes I do agree people need to buy so they can get on with life.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121062565#Comment_121062565

I am on with you here, I don't believe in infinite growth.

I don't believe houses priced 600k today will be 900k in ten years. Unless our currency will be in the toilet.

Shoog

We bought our current house at 32K Punts 25 years ago, selling it for €202K now. €150K of that is pure inflationary price growth - the rest was luck.

It doesn't take much inflation to produce hugely increased prices over time.

At the moment we are experiencing huge price inflation to soak up all that funny money that was printed over Covid - there is very little real property price growth when all is accounted for. The Euro has been debased by recent events - but it will likely reach a new equilibrium soon.

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121063745#Comment_121063745

I don't disagree with the sentiment but in 2 years time, if the poster were to wait, assuming prices do go down, the poster will have spent money on rent for 4 years, will no doubt be paying a higher interest rate, will no doubt be have 4 years less of a term and may find that it is much harder to access credit than it were four years previous.

If you are looking for savings of between 100 and 150k over the term of the mortgage you would require a significant reduction in the cost of the house versus 4 years previous because the interest rates will be higher.

As you said and I've said earlier, if you can afford the repayments, are in stable health and employment holding out for things to come down because 'good things come to those who wait' doesn't make sense.

crisco10

I think people underestimate how much can change over a few years in your personal circumstances. For example, we found getting life assurance significantly more difficult this time round compared to 7 years ago on our first property. (Due to me having a stroke 2 years ago). But even my wife needed a nurses visit to get underwritten. When we were 7 years younger, it was just a form filling exercise.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121063439#Comment_121063439

I waited until I was 35 to buy based on a mix of bad advice and my own reluctance to take on debt. I finally did buy a house last year, and I got a house I don't like in a town I don't want to live in. I'm lonely, bored and miserable, but my family urged me to buy it because....yeah. Had I bought 5-6 years ago when I could have, I could have traded up and owned a small house in Dublin.

Two lessons from here: don't always listen to "advice", and don't pass up a good opportunity just because you have butterflies in your stomach. Sometimes it's best to wait, but if you don't do anything, you're never going to achieve anything.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121062881#Comment_121062881

It kinda is though.

How long should people wait, a year, two, five, seven?

If you are a cash buyer, mortgage time frames and mortgage rates are words on a page which have no bearing on when you buy. For a thirty-something, they are watching the window of opportunity get smaller and smaller the longer they wait. You also seem to be ignoring the colossal rents currently being paid, years of waiting for price drops to materialise inevitably means that significant amounts of money which could have been paid towards a mortgage, are being paid to landlords. Ands that’s before we even get to the issues with tenancy terminations/living at home for years.

So, it’s nonsense to say waiting will give you what you want. Sometimes you just have to grab the opportunity, even if the timing isn’t perfect.

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121066299#Comment_121066299

I think the previous posters situation is ample evidence that some people won’t just jump when it’s needed.

everyone is in a different situation. What is right for me , may not be right for you. For me, waiting has paid off. I waited for 5 years in the states before pulling the trigger on my current home there. I searched ,did my research and when the time was right for me I bought.

in Ireland, I had to wait for 7 years for my first home, then a further 10 years to change. The last home I bought in Ireland I was waiting 11 years and that was something I wanted but couldn’t afford, I saved and waited. Eventually, it became available. Price was excellent so I bought it.

‘I’m not in a situation where I was paying rent. Sometimes the time is obvious, you buy when you can afford to pay and it might not be what you want.

it is all dependent on the persons perception of value (obviously the big unknown in anything)

as I said, everyone is different, but in my own case, waiting and doing research and market trends have worked in my favour.

Bluefoam

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121066323#Comment_121066323

You are discussing using assets to benefit from the market... Paying off debt and increasing equity... It's disingenuous to present your scenario with the majority of people here who are trying to get onto the property ladder.

It's also a bit smarmy to fill their heads with bullshit about waiting for markets to collapse... Stuff that ultimately could affect them negatively in the future.

You are in the position of having your own home and the luxury of picking and choosing your next move, most people posting on this forum are trying to get into a position of ownership and don't have the luxury of chosing where they want to live or even the type of house they want to live in...

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121066711#Comment_121066711

Who said anything about waiting for markets to collapse? Just you!

I’m not telling anyone to do anything. If you notice, it always says “in my experience”.

smarmy might be your interpretation of where I am currently in home ownership. Needless to say, everyone has had to go through the pain of the first home purchase. My mantra was “wait” but then again during that time I saved my ass off, while living at home.

I may be in a different place currently than most people starting out, it doesn’t mean I haven’t been in their shoes. Smarmy as it might sound (and it isn’t) my own kids are facing the same issues as everyone else. Will dad help out? Abso9f8ckinglootly!

hate to tell you instant gratification is a thing of the past, no one (or very few) get the house that they want on a first purchase.

herbalplants

Well when you see a house like this in Cabra almost half of million, in my opinion the market is in trouble and riding a dangerous peak.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/210-carnlough-road-cabra-dublin-7/4721874

mariaalice

The average person buying should have no interest in trying to 'beat the market it's only relevant if you buying an expensive house in an area where people are circling around to get onto certain roads or areas.

A property is primarily a shelter, not a money-making investment.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121067550#Comment_121067550

I agree with you.

Unfortunately what I noticed we are back to that feel of 2007 at the moment where lots of couples or singles they are buying brand new houses with everything brand new inside. Hope all will go well for them in the next 25 years or more. Is that feel of 110% mortgages, which is not.

mariaalice

The house we are in now turned out to be the bargain of a lifetime. When we purchased it was all an accident though, with nothing to do with beating the market.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121067651#Comment_121067651

Add to that the enormous weddings that are in vogue. I’ve been to three weddings in the last year. Each of them had a least 200 guests, lasted two days and must have cost upwards of 40-50k. My own brother’s wedding was one of them. I tried to tell him to downscale and use some of the money for his mortgage, but they wanted the big party. 

As you say, it’s all very “boomy”

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121067637#Comment_121067637

Unfortunately boards is littered with links to houses for ‘crazy prices’ as a sure sign the market has peaked.

I saw them in 2019, 20, 21 &22. Yet here we are. Probably even posted a few myself at peak disillusionment. It never feels like a good/cheap time to buy.

Saw a thread come back to life a few weeks back where someone was looking to buy a house in 2017. The person, applauded by multiple others on the thread, decided things were just too crazy and it was best to hold off for a few years until things calmed down. Wonder how that person feels now!

Beigepaint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121067871#Comment_121067871

Same old avocado toast nonsense that comfortable old men post to punch down. As if big weddings didn't exist when you were a young man.

Bargain_Hound

No obvious signs of house prices going downwards in my area in Dublin (Typical 2,3,4 bed Semi D's). A few sold around us locally within weeks of being advertised for upwards of 10/15% above asking. I do think the price bracket certainly has something to do with it, as it would fall under more average earning reflections and what FTB would typically be able to afford.

We bought second hand in 2019, and the going rate for the same house is at least 100-150k more at the moment than what we paid back then, which IMO is a huge return for such a short time ago. Reflection of the housing situation & inflation I guess.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068308#Comment_121068308

Id tend to agree with you and I don't want to sound contradictory but I think the one element that we've really never had an equivalent of in previous generations is social media.

Keeping up with the Joneses is definitely more in your face then ever before imo.

But regardless there'll still be haves and have not, spenders and savers just like every generation before them.

Bluefoam

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068308#Comment_121068308

I'm not particularly old... Weddings were allot more simple and definitely allot cheaper in the scheme of things. Also, the cost of living was cheaper, even in the 70's and 80's when interest rates were up around 18%, people could still feed their families... When I bought (first time around) in the 2000's, we didn't even consider holidays, didn't eat out or get takeaways, didn't even rent videos... We cut all possible costs out of our lives, knowing that those small sacrifices would allow us to make our futures better... When I moved into my first apartment, we slept on an air matress on the floor for more than 6 months, because we didn't have the resources to buy a bed. I now work with a bunch of 20's & 30's and they all buy new cars every two years, two takeway coffees a day (even though we have a good bean to cup machine in the office)... then they complain about never being able to afford a home... these are the same people who went to Altogether Now two weeks ago, Electric Picnic this week and are just back from a wedding in Italy...

I can definitely tell you that I did none of that! I gave up everything to get the mortage for my place... I don't see that stuff happening now.

The bit I'm confused about (& I don't like the current government) is why people keep belting on about having to give up avocado toast and expensive weddings... and how they shouldn't have to... but not so long ago, people used to just give **** up without moaning about it and how it's so unfair... There's no punching down, everyone wants everyone to own a house, there's no one in society that doesn't want you to own a house...

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068332#Comment_121068332

Sure we can have another go with a new thread. "Falling house prices - 2024" :)

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068364#Comment_121068364

Same experience here. Right down to the air bed on the bare concrete floor with a bit of pv bonding on it to stop the dust for 6 months. When we could afford underlay for the floors we used that. A few weeks later we got the laminate for the bedroom, and so on. No holidays, coffees or pub for a couple of years either side of buying. Second home was much easier because we got better jobs and saved a lot more in advance.

Tell that to people today trying to buy and they look at you like you just told them there was a time when noone had a phone in their pocket.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121067637#Comment_121067637

That place looks quite nice inside. I dont know the Northside well though, so could be a dodgy area.

For 450k, you wouldnt get a house like that easily on the Southside, unless in a council house area.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068308#Comment_121068308

Richard is a young man 🤣. So you got that wrong.

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068308#Comment_121068308

It seems to me to be on steroids at the moment. We were invited to a wedding earlier this year. A simple humanist ceremony on the beach. It was wonderful.

another friends daughter got married on the beach also, in frigging Bali. We were invited, but sent our condolences, dad forked up for flights and hotel accommodation. The same two, just guessing from talking to mum and dad, earn damn all. It’s all too much.

when, mine decide to get married, I just hope they think about their financial health first. I am not going to support opulence, I am not going to splash cash to impress their friends, call me old fashioned but a secure home comes first. Everything else you can build on.

Bluefoam

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068526#Comment_121068526

Thats a tiny house for the price... The estate agent has one of those wide angle lenses that distorts reality... I'd look at things like conduit running down walls as a big negative... The house might be in good nick and have a reasonably nice garden... Cabra is very nice in parts, but very very bad in others... I would have thought that price is high based on the market... But then a houses value is what someone is willing to pay for it.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068526#Comment_121068526

As Bluefoam mentioned above.

They are tiny poaky houses, mind boggles. Good luck who wants to fork out that price on a Cabra house, no offence.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068562#Comment_121068562

Your condolences? Bit early for that.