Falling House Prices

NSAman

I have been looking for a few months. Certain AREAS of Dublin have seen prices reduced. That doesn’t surprise me at all. €850€-960k for two bedroom apartment is just ridiculous. Certain schemes which I have been looking at are not selling out as fast as they once would have. I’m not sure pricing apartments at €1,250,000 for a three bed is sustainable. A house is better value at that figure.

overall, I do not see price drops happening apart from three areas of Dublin.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011865#Comment_121011865

What are these three areas?

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121013033#Comment_121013033

Do the research, they were already over priced to begin with…pretty obvious..:)

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011187#Comment_121011187

It will take a solid year of an economic crash where most of the country will either be out of work or too worried about being out of work to even be interested on buying a cheap house. I just saw an apartment that I was afraid to buy for €80k when I had 100k cash available and a good safe job ,to buy it for an investment it back in 2013 on the market. Its for sale now for almost €300k and will go for more.

Shoog

In a tight supply market there are enough cash buyers to make interest rates irrelevant.

Bakharwaldog

Prices have effectively been falling according to RPI data from CSO for the last 9 months on a month over month basis. Prices in June were 3.9% lower than last September.

However in the most recent data (released last week) there was a slight increase (0.3%) over the previous month. It is very fair to say, based on the most complete data we have (i.e. from CSO), that prices have been significantly decreasing (3.9%% over last 9 months). Summer months usually see a slightly higher uptick in prices so the most recent data could be as a result of that. The RPI for September will be telling as could show either a continuation of the downward trend or that a bottom has been reached and prices are either stable or growing.

On the ground it may feel different (properties going for over asking etc.) but the actual data is pointing to steady decline.

milu2021

Prices are slightly down from their peak but not like people are going to be rushing in after things are down 2-3%. House price corrections are slow and can take many years to play out. We likely won’t see a 50%+ crash like we had from 2009-2012 but a 20% or so drop is certainly a possibility. Has already happened in other places recently like Sweden, Toronto and New Zealand.

DownByTheGarden

As far as i can see everybody wants to buy a house. Until most of them lose their jobs and enough of them cant buy, I dont thing we will see any significant drops. Ive a friend waiting for the drop to buy since he sold his house in 2015 i think it was. Every year he keeps saying its going to be next year.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121015346#Comment_121015346

City prices distort this because thats where most of the population live, also city buyers are far more likely to be young and so need morgages. Its just not true of everywhere outside of the East and the Cork & Galway city areas. The issue seems to be that City people only really care about city prices.

I got jittery on the back of talk of house prices dropping and put my house up on the market earlier than I wanted - but I cannot see prices falling out in the North West any time soon.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121016373#Comment_121016373

Net immigration of 61,000 people to Ireland in 2022 increased from 2021, and unemployment decreased and sitting at a little over 4%

20,000 fewer houses built last year than Simon Coveney says that we need.

We would need a serious economic downturn to reduce demand and reduce house prices by anything significant.

I'm not surprised that doubling interest rates has moved the needle, but renting is only getting worse and pushing people to buy before they would naturally begin to look. Also, culturally, same as 2006-08, when all everyone talks about is buying, all everyone wants to do is buy.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121016725#Comment_121016725

I agree. There is simply no way for a crash to happen until a major and unforeseen event changes things. What would that event be? I don't know, but it would need to halt and reverse immigration, cut off the supply of funny-money and somehow prevent the state from fiddling with things to keep the infinite growth train rolling.

Ray Palmer

given all predictions homes are going to be worth more to people than many other assets. AI is seriously going to disrupt the work force. property is a long term investment that people misunderstood as a short term investment and it was working. There aren't enough workers to build property and high earning IT jobs are going to seriously constrict. There are so many unions for other roles that IT is going to suffer the most due to the costs. Tons of admin jobs could technically be eliminated very quickly but the unions can slow that. AI is going to be cheaper than off shoring.

The industrial revolution was a lot slower than what is happening now. What is happening now is a game changer to so much. AI built properties on greenfield sites is very close to workable.

J_1980

While supply has been slightly edging up again in Dublin, all open days are crazy. Record prices on every road/estate especially around goatstown/windy arbour and terenure d6w etc.

at these levels D4 is mighty attractive.

J_1980

While supply has been slightly edging up again in Dublin, all open days are crazy. Record prices on every road/estate especially around goatstown/windy arbour and terenure d6w etc.

at these levels D4 is mighty attractive comparatively

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120997851#Comment_120997851

Don't mind the lads that have access to actual data and do some proper analysis on it. Anecdotal evidence is more important.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011865#Comment_121011865

There will likely be a floor on the lower end due to government intervention and schemes.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121016373#Comment_121016373

There is a massive backlog of younger people living with parents. A lot of housing will have to be built or otherwise freed up before even that backlog can be considered cleared

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011327#Comment_121011327

We're looking to buy our second home and I'm starting to get the ball rolling now as prices are tentatively showing signs of turning.

Im in no rush so could be another 24 months before we actually buy. I was in the exact same financial position last year and the year before that but I didn't bother because prices were only going one way.

I'm 100% trying to time the market as best I can because I'm in a position too. I doubt anyone genuinely needing to buy would postpone purchasing because of prices. How could they? You either need to buy a house or you dont.

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121016373#Comment_121016373

I’m a firm believer in “everything comes to those that wait”.

I’m looking, have been for a while. Will I purchase currently, no way. I viewed an apartment last week. €8585 a sq meter? Honestly, it’s not worth half that. That price is simply unsustainable.

Bluefoam

A property's worth is what someone is willing to pay for it... You deciding you're not partaking is fine, but one thing to consider: prices occasionally dip (in Ireland it's rarely happened) but ultimately, prices will continue to rise. Theres a bunch of people in their late 40s and 50s who had the same attitude as you, when prices did drop, they weren't in a position to take advantage. Now they have no property and no way to get on the property ladder because prices have continued to increase and because they are older can't get a mortgage offer long enough to cover the potential borrowings.

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121060937#Comment_121060937

If you can afford the repayments, the property suits your circumstances and you don't foresee any health or job issues then it makes very little sense to base you decisions on an 'everything comes to those that wait' blind belief.

I know of a number of people who, because of age or family situation are now forced into buying something after waiting the past 6 or 7 years for prices to drop. They are literally looking at paying up to 100k or more above what a similar property was priced at 7 years ago in a higher interest rate market, with less time to pay back a mortgage due to their age.

Should they keep waiting?

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121061835#Comment_121061835

Currently yes! The time to buy was 7 years ago. IMHO (not that THAT accounts for anything) now is not the time. So yes they should.

Bluefoam

Do you understand what age does to your ability to get a mortgage? The difference in repayments between a 30 year, 25 year, 20 years ... Or the banks willingness to give you a first time mortgage as you get older... There's talk about increasing Ireland's population by a further 3 million... Even if they could build 40,000 houses a year, there's little chance of houses ever dropping to 2016 levels... The more likely outcome would be prices increasing over the next 20 years... But feel free to wait.

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121061890#Comment_121061890

"Now" wasn't the time for them seven years ago either - the drop was coming apparantly.

So your advice is don't buy now as there is a major correction coming? How long more should they hold out for?

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121061927#Comment_121061927

They should think for themselves. You look at what’s happening. Yes, I’ve made mistakes. There are times I should have bought also but didn’t then I’ve had to wait.

you sound like it’s my fault that they didn’t purchase, that is on themselves. Have I purchased in the past 7 years ..yes.

you have to listen to yourself, do what’s right for you. In MY circumstances, now is not the time to purchase.

maninasia

Because an investor can get a house for 300k somewhere else and rent it for 2.5k month.

besides for 800k you need to earn what to pay for it, 1600-2000k before taxes and mortgage if Irish local. Easier if you bring money back with you from overseas.

kippy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121062237#Comment_121062237

So 'good things come to those that wait' is a complete nonsense.

Never said it was anyone's fault per se, the Irish state in general is the main cause of the issues with our housing market, but ultimately as I said above you need to make those decisions for yourself.

DubCount

Stats on property never paint the full picture. The market for a des res in south county Dublin with a nice sea view is a completely different market to a doer-upper in an "area with potential". The stats by their nature are a summation of lots of different markets. Also, nobody can predict the top or bottom of the market - just because there has been a trend up or down in the last couple of months is no prediction of what will happen in the next few months. Finally, history suggests over longer terms, property increases in value. Anyone who bought before the crash in 2008 looked like they overpaid a couple of years later. Their property is now well above what they paid at the time. Property is a long term play and is more about what value will be in 20 years time than 6 months time. Some day when you are all old, you will look back at a time when you where young and property prices were "reasonable". If you can afford to buy in a place you want to call home for the next number of years - go for it - property stats will mean very little to you after you buy.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121062365#Comment_121062365

I'm not saying I disagree but you're using past performance to predict future gains.

Infinite growth doesn't seem realistic to me, ask the Japanese.

Ireland has gone through its western economic big boom as far as I'm concerned.

I dont think we'll ever see 1980 prices again but I wouldn't be surprised if 2050 prices were close to 2008 prices.

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121062321#Comment_121062321

Nope, it’s not nonsense. Three times I have waited over 30 years. Each time I have managed to purchase at a better price for what I want. It’s all about timing. So, in my experience, “everything comes to those that wait”.