Falling House Prices

Bargain_Hound

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068606#Comment_121068606

This is the thing though; who says they will ever come down when we face hyper inflation? Paying 50k for one of these back in 1990's would have probably seemed like total madness, now look where we are. When is the right time to buy?

We saw a dip during the recession here in 2008-12 but aside from that, it's pretty much always been up, look at London, Paris or most capital cities. I don't condone paying 450k for a house in Cabra, but there must be a market for it if they exist. A close friend paid a shade over 600k for an ex council in Marino this summer. Located on the edge of the city where they both work, close to nice parks & the beach and nightlife. would I have paid that? probably not, but he's not loosing sleep over it and seems quite content. Afterall, his mortgage is still smaller than what he was paying for his 2 bed flat.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068999#Comment_121068999

I get you.

Yes Marino seen mad pricing before around 2006 - 2007, they were nearly at that level then too.

suvigirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068606#Comment_121068606

Unfortunately anything in walk in condition has been that price for over 12 months in cabra. It's madness. I know one of these houses with a.downstairs extension that went for over 600,000.

I kid you not🙄

spurious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068486#Comment_121068486

Ten years here saving to renovate the house. Once I had re-roofed it (which was very urgent), that was the end of any extra savings I had. No washing machine, no heating, one working ring on the cooker and living out of one room while I saved enough to get all that needed doing done. Only for my granny leaving me a few bob, I probably would have needed another two years to save what I actually needed.

Turned out however that late 1988 was one of those times to buy. I was offered 25% more than I paid six months after buying, even with the state it was in.

mariaalice

All the forums have a history function have a look at this forum for 2013.

gypsy79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120998301#Comment_120998301

Smaller house in my estate went for 60k (10%) more than i paid 18 months ago

Fook knows where they will go if interest rates ever come down

House price comparisons are not reliable as they dont compare like with like, so not homogeneous/

Shoog

The real underlying problem is that wages have been stagnant for decades so houses have become more unaffordable relatively. Wages seem finally to be correcting due to labour shortages but the average person is earning far less than they were back in the last century.

Bobeagleburger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068999#Comment_121068999

Of course they'll come down. There will be be an inevitable crash. Just look look at Ireland property history. Houses near me were 400k during the Celtic boom. People were saying then they'd never come down.

They fell over 55%. The same houses were going for 175k in 2013.

I wouldn't touch house prices in the current market tbh. However, I understand it's a tough for some people due to ridiculous rent prices.

Rents have risen over 100% since 2013

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070559#Comment_121070559

2013 is not a good reference point. There had been deep recession for six years with loads of empty properties which led to plummeting rental/selling prices. The economic conditions which led to that crash do not exist today, cheap and easy credit, an economic boom built on property investment etc. if anything all those small speculators have divested of their property investments and are therefore less at risk if economic conditions become more challenging. The huge increase in population, full employment, the fact that other countries are encountering the issues with living costs and property etc mean the conditions are not there for a massive drop. No one thinks that prices will continue to rise indefinately, some drop has to come at some stage, but no one can tell you when, or by how much.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121068308#Comment_121068308

With respect, that's a bit of a strawman. By any definition, taking on debt or spending a fortune on a two day party is foolish thing to do. In my brother's case, he has an enormous mortgage and a growing family. Certainly, he and the wife have plenty of money coming in, but that could change in the future. How many people in 2008 discovered that the enormous pay-cheques are not necessary permanent?

To me, a modest wedding would have been more sensible, with the remainder of the money put into paying off debt or invested for the future. Boring, I'll grant you, but if more people thought about the future and not simply the dopamine hit of the present, we all would benefit.

For the record, I'm 36. Fortunately for me this is all rather moot as I neither have 40-50k to spare for a wedding nor someone who would want to marry me :P. Also, avocados disagree with me.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070635#Comment_121070635

Peak shiithousery when you start telling people what to spend on the biggest day of their lives outside the birth of a child. But go on there, tell them how much money they should spend. I say, if they can afford it/want to spend it, that is their business.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070545#Comment_121070545

isn't the average full time salary almost 50k now?

Average salaries have gone up a lot in the last 5 or 10 years.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070727#Comment_121070727

Except that I didn't tell anyone anything; I merely made an observation and offered an opinion. People can do what they want with their own money. I happen to think that the spending of tens of thousands for nothing useful is a waste, but that's just what I think. To me, the importance of a day is in no way enhanced by the magnitude of the celebration.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070744#Comment_121070744

See there’s the thing, most married people think of that day as being both useful, and incredibly special. It is rarely reduced to a cost-benefit consideration.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070777#Comment_121070777

Well if that's what they want to do, off they go. Each to their own :)

mykrodot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070737#Comment_121070737

and the cost of living has sky rocketed since then too! Look at how much we are paying for houses, cars, fuel, health services, interest rates, food, drink, holidays, garden items,, dental services, hairdressing, car servicing, property tax, insurance, road tolls .....even my cat food which was 75c a tin 2 years ago is now €2.89.

EVERYTHING has doubled at least, salaries haven't ! Its frightening even when I look back 2 years on Amazon and see what I paid for items then compared to the identical item now. Some items have trebled in that time!

fergiesfolly

Been looking in Co. Galway the last 12 months. It'll be our second home and have noticed a surge of first time buyers who are willing to go beyond asking prices by 8-10 % quite easily. There are homes we could afford, but I just didn't see value in where the prices were going so withdrew from the bidding.

Prices may drop back, but there's a shortage of property and a slew of FTBs with plenty of cash, so I don't see it happening soon.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070925#Comment_121070925

The country is awash with cash. Also, after the last few years a lot more people have grasped that holding on to fiat funny-money is rather a mug’s game.  

Bobeagleburger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070925#Comment_121070925

If people have cash, let them spend it.

It's the people stretching their finances that need to watch out from falling into the trap of 'needing' a house.

High interest rates and high mortgage repayments equals a lifetime of pain for a lot of people.

The rent laws need to be overhauled, and tenants should have an option of a long term lease, and more protection.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070876#Comment_121070876

In 2009, I was able to rent an ensuite room in Athlone for 250 a month. It was 5 minutes away from my minimum wage internship at the time. Bills on top of that rarely exceeded 200 a month, and I wasn’t being abstemious. I know people who worked in Spars or Centras that were able to afford similar accommodation in Dublin back then. These days, a minimum wage worker would be doing well to not have share a bedroom.  

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121071013#Comment_121071013

Exactly.

And yet unemployed folks in social housing get the whole apartment to themselves and then complain about the length of the waiting list.

Social housing should include house shares, to help dissipate the list and bring the prices down a little for those that pay their own way.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121069314#Comment_121069314

I think you hit the nail on the head there. Its going to be absolute carnage when rates come down

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121071744#Comment_121071744

This is indeed a major issue. Obviously, we can’t have people sleeping in the streets in the thousand (we’re getting there, mind you), but the question of just what level of accommodation should be provided to those who cannot or will not work needs to be addressed. Giving people houses or apartments when there are working people who remain with their parents in their 30s is ethically bankrupt.

It’s one more elephant in the room, I suppose.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121071787#Comment_121071787

Indeed.

The folks living at home until 40 and working full time arent on any govt list.

So the govt doesnt care.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070925#Comment_121070925

We added 50k to the highest bid and it was accepted straight away. Our thinking was that in a years time if we were still looking at that house we would be looking at spending 50k more. Here we are now about 2 years later and it turns out that if we were looking now we would actually be looking at over 100k more to even get a bid in.

fergiesfolly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121071824#Comment_121071824

Glad it worked out for you.

50K is relevant to the asking/selling price of the house. If it's 800k - 1million probably makes sense. If it's in the €350-€400 range, then not so much. €20-30k would've had the same result

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121071910#Comment_121071910

House cost €558k including the 50k we added to the underbid. The other 2 bidders had been bidding for a few weeks before we decided to bid.

Identical house is on the market now for €650 and from what I have heard so far the bidding has gone way over that so far. So if we had waited I think it wouldnt have worked out for us.

Avon8

If you're renting, especially in urban areas, then the saving in rent is essentially insuring you against price drops. Unless you're at the very high end, there's little point waiting and hoping for a 10% haircut on a 500k house while you're dropping 25k a year back in rent.

Yes these sort of price cuts may happen at some point in the medium term, but the fundamentals (net migration, lack of supply, high employment) mean anything on a bigger scale just isn't realistic, and you're taking a serious punt on any price drops coming at all.

I remember making this same point a year ago, and the equation was definitely a bit simpler when rates were 2% rather than 4%. The overall point still remains however, if you've the ability to buy but have decided to wait and keep paying high rents instead, you'd want to have a serious reason for doing so.

Beigepaint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121070635#Comment_121070635

In fairness my comment was a bit curt, and you're only two years older than me :o

But if your brother and his wife make good money then whats the problem? Even if there is a downturn he can sell his bed and sleep on an air mattress. If they can't make their mortgage payments but pay in 200 euro a month then the house is theirs as long as they both shall live. I've never heard of anyone with ten years in a house say it was a mistake to buy at the time, regardless of the hardship the mortgage payments caused at first.

Let him enjoy his life.

GeorgeBailey

a lot of this going on in some recent posts:

https://youtu.be/DT1mGoLDRbc?si=febhWHc9sTgolUdO