Falling House Prices

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121101626#Comment_121101626

Based :).

shawki

Clicked into 22 posts of shite

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121102646#Comment_121102646

Well, as someone said above, there are no real price drops, so the devil makes work for idle fingers. This is also why I promised the mod I wouldn't post in the main property thread again :D.

forumdedum

What I have seen for sale in Dublin in the past few weeks is the house I'm looking at selling for between 7 and 10 per cent over the original asking price

dalyboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121120854#Comment_121120854

And it will continue to go up and up and up. There is zero chance that house prices will ever go down . The housing industry in Ireland is the most protected and artificially propped up by FG/FF.

Only hope of a correction is if SF get into power however , and it’s a massive however , SF have no hope of securing power. I’ll tell you why , what house owning person would vote for SF ? What person awaiting an inheritance would vote SF ? What student with prospective Irish based employment will vote SF ?

Additionally , SF’s voting support potential has been nuked with their (SF’s) views on Irish immigration. The stalwart SF voters feel abandoned because of it and I can’t see them recovering.

So what does that leave Ireland with ?

That’s right , good ole FF & FG . No matter what. They’ll cling to power with independents and some oddball parties (except the inevitably erased Green Party nut jobs).

Buying a house in Ireland is by far the most secure investment anyone can make. Period

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121120894#Comment_121120894

When the SF candidate calls to your door, ask him/her how exactly they are going to lower the price of housing, you may be very disappointed with what you hear when you ask for specifics.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121120894#Comment_121120894

FF/FG absolutely deserve some blame for where we are but people honestly believing SF will come to power and everyone will have a house for peanuts blows my mind. If they build more houses, infrastructure as whole will slow down.

How will they magically build all these houses? Well no one knows but if you’re a tax payer expect to be paying even more, and they will probably manage to drive out the MNC’s which almost keep the country running on their own.

Shoog

It is literally impossible to build houses which are affordable and meet building regs in the traditional way. That is why so few housing projects are been started - the margins are to tight. All the skilled trades simply cost to much and all the new building code requirements make their jobs slower, more difficult and more expensive.

The solution has to be to build system houses in large factories. The skill is designed in and full proof and removed from the individual wet trades. Automation allows houses to be assembled in days in the factory at a semi skilled level and when the house arrives on site it is erected in a few days.

This will not happen in any meaningful way as it will sidestep much of the vested interests and in built corruption of the current jobs for the boys system. The system will not get fixed, more young people will drift away to where they can afford to live and the state will find itself in a very deep systemic hole in a few decades.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121120894#Comment_121120894

Agree with the politics bit but dunno about the most secure investment bit.

The government is the rental market and a huge percentage of the buying market nowadays.

The money for all this is from corporation tax, poor results last week n the government will be looking anxiously at November returns. The days of getting an unexpected few billion to throw at the black holes of housing and health may be over.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121120971#Comment_121120971

If you were looking for the only bunch who have the potential to break the stranglehold that the developers have over housing then SF are just about the only ones. How they intend to ramp up output is the critical issue here.

padd b1975

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121121080#Comment_121121080

Simple.

They withdraw their strategic and vexatious objections.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121121080#Comment_121121080

That’s fair, and if they had a credible plan that made some sense I could 100% see the appeal but right now the statements seem to be, “we will build houses for all, but we have no way of explaining how we will do this”.

Repo101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121121080#Comment_121121080

The developers aren't the problem, try getting an electrician, bricklayer etc at the moment. I suspect we are close to max capacity in terms of building at the moment. Pointing blame at the people trying to build instead of the government and locals who say they want housing but just not in their area due to a lack of services etc.

Even if we could build an extra 10k houses a year it wouldn't change affordability at all with the demand.

The state needs to step in and build houses themselves and that will take at least a decade to achieve by the time we have the additional people trained, houses built and planning laws reformed.

The second issue is the central bank rules and the risk adverse nature built into lending in Ireland. Everybody wants to point the finger at banks but there are no entrants into the Irish market for a good reason. We want to increase affordability but at the same time we don't want to allow banks to repossess properties like most other countries. For this reason we pay a premium.

The status quo will remain until Irish people grow a backbone instead of being selfish and realise the disaster we are leaving for some of the current younger people and the future of this country.

riddles

When you are giving houses away for free there will never be enough. If you build it they will come.

We had a housing crisis in the 1920s and pretty much from then on. The cry is we need more social housing but yet with in the existing stock rent arrears runs at 30% accross local authorities which suggests something is amiss. So the 30% not paying - why is that? How much is the cost of collection? Probably exceeds the arrears in a lot of cases.

is the plan to completely concrete the whole island and increase the population to what 15/20 million?

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121121591#Comment_121121591

No that is not the plan and only hysterical right wing agitators imagine it is.

Emblematic

I think getting back to the original post, before you see any meaningful fall in prices you've movement in the rental market first. This is what happened before the last crash. Rents failed to rise to justify property prices. This indicated that property was in a speculative bubble and was due for a correction.

But we're not seeing that now. If you can save for a deposit and buy, it is still far cheaper than renting plus far more security of accommodation.

JCN12

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/budget-could-offer-families-more-help-to-buy-second-hand-homes/a45804983.html

Looks like second hand prices are about to head for the moon in 2024.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124478#Comment_121124478

It's just as well that we don't literally print money anymore. The way things are going, the paper could well be worth more than the nominal value of the currency...

This line caught my eye:

Mr O’Brien told Fianna Fáil TDs and senators that more than 2,544 approvals have been issued for the First Home scheme, where first time buyers can see the State taking up to 30pc equity in a new home.

There's a devil's bargain if ever I saw one.

Buddy Bubs

I just had an offer on my house way in excess of what I was expecting. Dublin, 3 bed semi. Well over double what I paid for it in 2010.

thencamethen

I'm currently selling a 2 bed apartment in Dublin and simultaneously buying a smaller one in Wicklow Town.

2 bed in Dublin: got +10% above the asking in a first week with 3 bidders, will be finalizing next week. Price grew by almost 1/3 since I bought it in 2018.

A small apartment in Wicklow - got it for -3% below the asking, there were no other bidders. Maybe got lucky again.

highgiant1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121124478#Comment_121124478

From a purely selfish point of view, my partner and I are on track to finish our self build in early 2024 so I'm very interested in seeing what they do in this area and how that might impact on prices next year (I'll be listing my current property (small 3 bed)).

JCN12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125517#Comment_121125517

I wouldn't say that is a selfish point of view.

I would say the selfish tag should be assigned to the policy makers who are about to overheat the economy to survive another election cycle. Again.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125705#Comment_121125705

Until the day when politicians and bureaucrats suffer severe consequences for their failings, they will continue to engage in this behaviour. What's the worst that a politician has to fear? Losing her or his seat for a term? He will still have his pension waiting for him, and if they lose their seat, they get a severance payment, I believe. Civil servants, on the other hand, have naught to fear at all. We need a system where failure is punished. Realistically speaking, there are people in office currently who should be in prison after what has happened here in recent years...

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125787#Comment_121125787

Politicians do face conquences if they do not preform, they lose there seats when the general population do not vote for them. Look at what happened to the Labour party in 2014. However there are some posting here who consider there viewpoint the only one that counts. They also consider that housing is the only policy that matters.

Housing is an issue yes but not the complete economy. We have full employment. Every college student has a part-time job and works as many hours as they want to. Minimum wage is amount the highest in Europe. This drive the demand for housing. I imagine that most college goers are earning 12+k/ year maybe even earning the complete tax free wage ( about 17k). Health service is improving the biggest issue is the inability of the economy of supply enough labour to control costs.

For the last 5 years lads predicting a fall in house prices were wrong. Yes house prices may fall but even if they fall it probably will be by no more than 15% or two years growth over the last five year average.

Biggest problem for the government is to keep builders building and getting the remaining construction workers in the building sector to stay there.

Mechanics are not starting to move from garages I to factory's as they will have more benefits and about 10k more in wages

jimmycrackcorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121120953#Comment_121120953

Might also ask them, if the answer to cheaper house prices is an increase in supply, then why do their housing spokesperson and leader both object to developments in their respective constituencies. And , is this either because they need the votes of local nimbies or that it suits them now to prolong the housing crisis, or both.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121126097#Comment_121126097

Hmm. My SF voting aunt once told me that the existence of fiat current was an "alt-right conspiracy theory" whilst expounding how "taxing the rich" will help us build houses galore. That's SF's support base.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121125915#Comment_121125915

Yeah right they walk off with a pension that the majority in the private sector can only dream of. So what if they lose their seat they still get financially rewarded for having a seat for a number of years and laterally sitting there scratching their hairy holes. Not enough for them to lose their seat if they got it under false pretenses if they don't deliver and get voted out it means those who voted them in feel like they are not worth another go ergo they should have their pensions hit as they have failed to do the job they were asked to do

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121126258#Comment_121126258

yeah was listening to Boyd Barrett there about a wealth tax if only there was no options for the rich to conceal hide and basically move themselves out of the country it could be runner I dont think it would bring in the 8 billion he says on the other hand his idea of a charge on streaming services to finance RTE is quite a good one. I don't like the lad but he has a good idea every 4/5 years.

Padre_Pio

The average price of a 3 bed semi in Ireland has hit 300k for the first time since 2007.

No sign of prices falling yet.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/average-three-bed-house-price-now-over-e300000-survey-1530836.html

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157227#Comment_121157227

And it would seem that interest rates may be settling:

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/09/25/ecb-interest-rates-to-remain-high-for-as-long-as-needed-lagarde

I don't think that the supply of funny money will be drying up anytime soon, and there's no appetite to manage immigration so yeah...this grift will probably keep going for another few years.