Falling House Prices

Bluefoam

Now that prices are falling in Dublin, is anyone taking advantage of the price drops? It seems to be what allot of people were waiting for...

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058309819/falling-house-prices

Are they? Why? And how secure do people feel in their employment?

Bluefoam

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994772#Comment_120994772

Falling house prices and economic instability generally go hand in hand... But there's been much discussion about wanting prices to drop, so that buyers could take advantage.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994879#Comment_120994879

Are you trying to sell?

I could see people in general watching and see if any sort of slide in prices gathers a bit of pace.

Might be thinking of buying ourselves but no rush.

Meanwhile with the current volatility about, jobs mightn't be as safe as recently assumed.

Claw Hammer

There ia also a low supply of houses, so it is difficult to take advantage of any price drops. The shortage of properties on the market is also ost acute at the lower end. This is where most first time buyers are looking.

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058309819/falling-house-prices

Is that news not three months out of date?

herbalplants

Let's see how October will look. Summer months are always busy especially when supply is so low so people bidding themselves like mad. They may wake up later from their hangover.

I notice on another group a lot of people complaining that the mortgage that they could well afford 2 years ago now they are worried they can't sustain.

errlloyd

Do the price drop figures take inflation into account? Like is a 1% price drop in Dublin, really more like a 10% price drop given it's happened at the same time as inflation?

suvigirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058309819/falling-house-prices

No evidence on the ground, anything I'm looking at is still going way above asking.

Bluefoam

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995451#Comment_120995451

Of course inflation has an effect, but I'm interest in all of the people who said they were waiting for prices to drop and they would buy then... Is that still the case or are they also now considering inflation, interest rates and affordability...

frank730

no price drop in south co. Dublin anyway... all houses we viewed recently are well above asking price now.

Bluefoam

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995850#Comment_120995850

The asking price is arbitrary... it's selling prices that have any meaning.

El Gato De Negocios

Living in the Midlands and a house 200 metres from us just sold. Bungalow, approx 1500 sq ft, good condition and on a good sized site with a large back garden. Was on for €279 and sold for over €320.

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995941#Comment_120995941

Are you actually monitoring the market or just regurgitating what some other misinformed people have said?

Bluefoam

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120996854#Comment_120996854

Montioring the market??? All I said was that Sales prices are important... asking prices means nothing, it has no bearing on anything!

dontmindme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120996915#Comment_120996915

Your first line in the OP reads "Now that prices are falling in Dublin", which would lead me to question if you are currently monitoring the market or even in the market for buying/selling a house in Dublin?

Bluefoam

The Daft report last week said prices were falling, I don't need to do much monitoring to understand that... They do the monitoring.

suvigirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120997851#Comment_120997851

Well, as noted by a few posters, me included, the proof is not on the ground, houses still going sale agreed well over asking prices

crisco10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120997884#Comment_120997884

Yeah, I think the point is that asking price is subjectively set by the seller and their agent. Its not actually a defintion of what the market will pay for it.

We for example listed at about 7% below what we wanted to get, fully expecting a bidding war of sorts to get to our target.

Sale agreed at asking +10%.

Royale with Cheese

I've bid/had an interest on a few properties in South county Dublin this summer and none of them sold for over asking. I'm sure it's all relative to price range, asking price vs what they actually expect to get for it, and condition (building costs appear to have gone even more mental this year so this is quite important) but just my personal experience.

I've been bidding on one in near immaculate condition this week when we bowed out when it was just over the asking price. Just been told today the other bidder has now mysteriously pulled out.

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120998009#Comment_120998009

"I've been bidding on one in near immaculate condition this week when we bowed out when it was just over the asking price. Just been told today the other bidder has now mysteriously pulled out."

Are you still interested?

I've been looking the last twelve months in the 300-400k market, and prices have stopped falling once the 4x mortgages kicked in. First few months of the year there were certain roads starting to come into my budget. The same roads are gone way over 400k now. Like you say, depends on the price range you're looking at. There's been a pronounced uptick during the summer months is my experience. Maybe the falls they're reporting are inflation adjusted but the problem there is that nobody's mortgage offer is.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjune2023/

Royale with Cheese

Yeah I had figured when people were seeing bidding wars and houses going for way over asking it would be in the price range where the 4x multiplier would have more of an effect. I'm looking more at 650k-€1m.

Here's one of them:

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-14-rathmichael-woods-shankill-dublin-18/5323314

Perfectly fine condition, didn't need any immediate work. One bidder and went sale agreed at 660k. I know because I hummed and hawed about making a bid when it was at 660 and left it too late in the end.

suvigirl

I dunno, a friend of mine was.bidding against an investor, up to 830,000.

Investor dropped out and new bidder came along, she dropped out then.

4 bed semi in normal housing estate in templeogue

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058309819/falling-house-prices

House prices 1% down (in dublin only)

Mortgage interest 2% up.

Doesn't feel like a saving to me.

Buddy Bubs

Nothing much has really moved from unaffordable to affordable all of a sudden so it won't have a real effect felt by the masses of people looking to buy.

RichardAnd

Let us not forget that 1% fall in prices is on top of an enormous spike in prices from 2020 onwards.

I see no reason why prices would fall by any reasonable amount. Demand is still high, wages are still high, immigration is gruesomely high and the state is still pumping funny-money into the market via any number of schemes. My advice to anyone is that if you can get a suitable property at a reasonable and affordable price, take it.

Kurooi

When prices are shooting up people postpone buying a house because of inflated prices. The same people then refuse to buy when prices dip because of uncertainty, interest rates, or because their job situation no longer allows them to.

Well, prices are not lower yet, they don't just crash. It will take a solid year or two of a downward trend to at least make a dent in 10 years of house price inflation.

Bluefoam

The latest news is, that as prices have just begun to show signs of dropping, that people have devcided not to sell and are holding onto their houses... so there won't be enough houses on the market and prices will likely rise again in the short term...

Outside of Dublin there has been consistent price increases over the last few years. Demand still far outstrips supply - especially in the small house segment.

Our sale has gone 25% over the asking price out in Roscommon and there are a queue of buyers waiting. So house price inflation is still the norm anywhere but Dublin.

JohnnyChimpo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011187#Comment_121011187

Well they do crash sometimes, that's called a property crash. The theory of such a crash happening here in the short-term would probably be that mortgage inflation offsets the supply crunch. Personally, I think that both overestimates how long mortgage rates will remain high, and underestimates how long the housing stock will remain undersupplied. I can really only see a plateau/slow incremental continuing rise in prices given the current market conditions.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011810#Comment_121011810

Even the prices crash, the overall trend is upwards. Case in point, in 1997, my parents sold their Dublin 3 home for 75k pounds. The same house was worth nearly half a million euros ten years later, and never got below 200k during the crash. The same house is today worth over 600k based on what properties nearby are going for.

I don't think we'll see another 2008 style crash. It was a very different set of circumstances

NSAman

I have been looking for a few months. Certain AREAS of Dublin have seen prices reduced. That doesn’t surprise me at all. €850€-960k for two bedroom apartment is just ridiculous. Certain schemes which I have been looking at are not selling out as fast as they once would have. I’m not sure pricing apartments at €1,250,000 for a three bed is sustainable. A house is better value at that figure.

overall, I do not see price drops happening apart from three areas of Dublin.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011865#Comment_121011865

What are these three areas?

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121013033#Comment_121013033

Do the research, they were already over priced to begin with…pretty obvious..:)

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011187#Comment_121011187

It will take a solid year of an economic crash where most of the country will either be out of work or too worried about being out of work to even be interested on buying a cheap house. I just saw an apartment that I was afraid to buy for €80k when I had 100k cash available and a good safe job ,to buy it for an investment it back in 2013 on the market. Its for sale now for almost €300k and will go for more.

In a tight supply market there are enough cash buyers to make interest rates irrelevant.

Bakharwaldog

Prices have effectively been falling according to RPI data from CSO for the last 9 months on a month over month basis. Prices in June were 3.9% lower than last September.

However in the most recent data (released last week) there was a slight increase (0.3%) over the previous month. It is very fair to say, based on the most complete data we have (i.e. from CSO), that prices have been significantly decreasing (3.9%% over last 9 months). Summer months usually see a slightly higher uptick in prices so the most recent data could be as a result of that. The RPI for September will be telling as could show either a continuation of the downward trend or that a bottom has been reached and prices are either stable or growing.

On the ground it may feel different (properties going for over asking etc.) but the actual data is pointing to steady decline.

milu2021

Prices are slightly down from their peak but not like people are going to be rushing in after things are down 2-3%. House price corrections are slow and can take many years to play out. We likely won’t see a 50%+ crash like we had from 2009-2012 but a 20% or so drop is certainly a possibility. Has already happened in other places recently like Sweden, Toronto and New Zealand.

DownByTheGarden

As far as i can see everybody wants to buy a house. Until most of them lose their jobs and enough of them cant buy, I dont thing we will see any significant drops. Ive a friend waiting for the drop to buy since he sold his house in 2015 i think it was. Every year he keeps saying its going to be next year.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121015346#Comment_121015346

City prices distort this because thats where most of the population live, also city buyers are far more likely to be young and so need morgages. Its just not true of everywhere outside of the East and the Cork & Galway city areas. The issue seems to be that City people only really care about city prices.

I got jittery on the back of talk of house prices dropping and put my house up on the market earlier than I wanted - but I cannot see prices falling out in the North West any time soon.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121016373#Comment_121016373

Net immigration of 61,000 people to Ireland in 2022 increased from 2021, and unemployment decreased and sitting at a little over 4%

20,000 fewer houses built last year than Simon Coveney says that we need.

We would need a serious economic downturn to reduce demand and reduce house prices by anything significant.

I'm not surprised that doubling interest rates has moved the needle, but renting is only getting worse and pushing people to buy before they would naturally begin to look. Also, culturally, same as 2006-08, when all everyone talks about is buying, all everyone wants to do is buy.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121016725#Comment_121016725

I agree. There is simply no way for a crash to happen until a major and unforeseen event changes things. What would that event be? I don't know, but it would need to halt and reverse immigration, cut off the supply of funny-money and somehow prevent the state from fiddling with things to keep the infinite growth train rolling.

Ray Palmer

given all predictions homes are going to be worth more to people than many other assets. AI is seriously going to disrupt the work force. property is a long term investment that people misunderstood as a short term investment and it was working. There aren't enough workers to build property and high earning IT jobs are going to seriously constrict. There are so many unions for other roles that IT is going to suffer the most due to the costs. Tons of admin jobs could technically be eliminated very quickly but the unions can slow that. AI is going to be cheaper than off shoring.

The industrial revolution was a lot slower than what is happening now. What is happening now is a game changer to so much. AI built properties on greenfield sites is very close to workable.

J_1980

While supply has been slightly edging up again in Dublin, all open days are crazy. Record prices on every road/estate especially around goatstown/windy arbour and terenure d6w etc.

at these levels D4 is mighty attractive.

J_1980

While supply has been slightly edging up again in Dublin, all open days are crazy. Record prices on every road/estate especially around goatstown/windy arbour and terenure d6w etc.

at these levels D4 is mighty attractive comparatively

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120997851#Comment_120997851

Don't mind the lads that have access to actual data and do some proper analysis on it. Anecdotal evidence is more important.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011865#Comment_121011865

There will likely be a floor on the lower end due to government intervention and schemes.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121016373#Comment_121016373

There is a massive backlog of younger people living with parents. A lot of housing will have to be built or otherwise freed up before even that backlog can be considered cleared

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121011327#Comment_121011327

We're looking to buy our second home and I'm starting to get the ball rolling now as prices are tentatively showing signs of turning.

Im in no rush so could be another 24 months before we actually buy. I was in the exact same financial position last year and the year before that but I didn't bother because prices were only going one way.

I'm 100% trying to time the market as best I can because I'm in a position too. I doubt anyone genuinely needing to buy would postpone purchasing because of prices. How could they? You either need to buy a house or you dont.

NSAman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121016373#Comment_121016373

I’m a firm believer in “everything comes to those that wait”.

I’m looking, have been for a while. Will I purchase currently, no way. I viewed an apartment last week. €8585 a sq meter? Honestly, it’s not worth half that. That price is simply unsustainable.

Bluefoam

A property's worth is what someone is willing to pay for it... You deciding you're not partaking is fine, but one thing to consider: prices occasionally dip (in Ireland it's rarely happened) but ultimately, prices will continue to rise. Theres a bunch of people in their late 40s and 50s who had the same attitude as you, when prices did drop, they weren't in a position to take advantage. Now they have no property and no way to get on the property ladder because prices have continued to increase and because they are older can't get a mortgage offer long enough to cover the potential borrowings.