Falling House Prices

DownByTheGarden · 05-09-2023 5:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121072959#Comment_121072959

Not surprising at all. People used to not spend and unsurprisingly were able to save. Nowadays people seem to want to spend and then complain that they cant save. Instead of being happy that what they are doing wrong is pointed out to them they post links to videos from nearly half a century ago.

J_1980 · 06-09-2023 5:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058309819/falling-house-prices

There are no price drops in Dublin.

this is one of the smaller mid terraces in this HaroldsX development. Currently at 810k.

https://offr.io/property/72-leinster-park--dublin-6w-ireland/8247

these were selling around 700k until now:

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/?action=search&county=6&property_type=0&date_from=2010-01-01&date_to=2023-09-06&price_from=0&price_to=0&address=Leinster+Park

This is just one example. Plenty of others. Might not be as pronounced in 1mm+ segment.

luckily I already signed contracts on my purchase (was buying and selling), otherwise the current situation feels a lot like Covid 2020. Mad rush into property and price explosion.

DownByTheGarden · 06-09-2023 10:12am

Heard yesterday evening that an identical house to the one we bought across the road around 2 years ago, has been bid up to €200k over the price we paid 2 years ago. And we thought it was expensive then :O

ARJn · 06-09-2023 10:22am

Sample price of a new build in Clay farm raising over months , have seen no price drops in any new builds in and around Dublin

On May 9 , 2022

House Beds Sq M Sq Ft Prices From

Rowan 4 162 1,742 €655,000

On Sep 2 ,2022

Rowan 4 162 1,742 €660,000

On Jan 31 ,2023

Rowan 4 162 1,742 €695,000

Today

Rowan 4 162 1,742 €705,000

NSAman · 06-09-2023 10:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121075384#Comment_121075384

Do you really think prices of new builds will drop? Unless there is a serious financial crisis that never happens.

DownByTheGarden · 06-09-2023 10:33am

Where I used to live the council have bought the last 4 of the 4 and 5 bed houses that have come up for sale in the last couple of years. These are houses that you could build nearly a whole housing estate for the price of the 4 houses they bought. They paid 500k to 700k for each of them.

Wanderer78 · 06-09-2023 11:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121075425#Comment_121075425

...when rates go up, prices generally fall, but our supply problems are so severe, this may not happen here, impossible to tell though....

RichardAnd · 07-09-2023 9:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121075526#Comment_121075526

Prices will not drop by any meaningful amount until something happens to reduce demand considerably. Whatever that would be, it would need to reverse immigration, take a considerable amount of money out of the economy and leave the state unable to interfere to reverse the process. The 2008 crash delivered all of that, but it happened due to circumstances that simply don't exist today.

bea468 · 07-09-2023 11:49am

As someone who has been looking to buy for several months, I am not seeing prices falling. The second hand 2 bed houses/ apartments that I have been looking at are going for more than similar properties in the same areas sold for this time last year. Maybe houses which are priced at over 500-600k are falling but the 300-400k bracket in Dublin is still as bad as ever.

DownByTheGarden · 07-09-2023 11:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121079954#Comment_121079954

I dont think any houses are falling in price. At one point it did look like they were going to start falling but that was but a point on a graph at the end of the day. Eventually they will, but when is anybodies guess.

PokeHerKing · 07-09-2023 12:04pm

Have the actual stats not shown MOM drops in Dublin now for the past few months? Minimal but drops all the same?

Pretty sure that's been posted in property price thread by various posters?

the.red.baron · 07-09-2023 12:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080028#Comment_121080028

no but increases have slowed

dkRulez · 07-09-2023 12:20pm

I am trying to buy a new build under HTB and was there in Parkliegh queuing up for 3 hrs. only to put my name on the cancellation list. People camped up a night before to book, this was not captured in the media anywhere. Majority being Indians who have very low cash to spend on resale. The one's who have cash feel a big risk in locking it into an expensive property only to see it crash soon. Therefore there is a big group of are fence sitters holding off with cash expecting things to come down and then jump in. There is no scope of things to cool down, probably a 700K clay farm house may come down 650K but the 400K's will go to 450K-500K's once patience of fence sitters gives in.

The rising interest rates have no major impact on buyers, changing 90% LTV ratio for 2nd time buyers would change the entire picture. As a 700K clay farm buyer is trying to sell his 300K house for 450K and narrow down the difference. With 80% LTV they would need to hold off for a year.

Geuze · 07-09-2023 12:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121075425#Comment_121075425

No.

Given the massive lack of supply, and the huge latent demand, backed by billions in savings, unfortunately I don't see prices falling.

Bluefoam · 07-09-2023 12:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080105#Comment_121080105

Not sure what you're looking to do?

you mention people haveing to queue to get accepted to buy a house
you want to make second time buyers of larger homes wait another year and contribute more to their upfront payment
this will mean more smaller homes suitable for first time buyers will not be released onto the market
the second time buyer will then have more equity (according to your calculations) and more buying power in the future, probably resulting in higher prices in the future
your plan is ill concieved... It only deals with your immediate wants
fiddling with the market has only proven to have the oposite of the desired effect in the past
The market is driven by demand & desire... with irelands projected popultation increase in the coming 25 years, the demand is not going away
theres some people with more money than others, thats just a fact of life... Someone can afford the prices, the houses are being sold...

PokeHerKing · 07-09-2023 1:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080098#Comment_121080098

So what's the MOM increase for Dublin at now?

PokeHerKing · 07-09-2023 1:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080098#Comment_121080098

So what are the MOM increases in Dublin at now?

Former Former Former · 07-09-2023 1:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080434#Comment_121080434

The above statement is incorrect for Dublin, the last survey showed that prices in June had fallen by 0.9% compared to 12 months earlier. Nationally, it's still up.

herbalplants · 07-09-2023 1:53pm

According to the below good few drops

https://mynest.ie/pricechanges/Dublin

Obviously not new builds.

Bluefoam · 07-09-2023 1:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080527#Comment_121080527

Thats not MOM (Month On Month)...

kalych · 07-09-2023 2:18pm

It isn't very helpful to consider the property market in Dublin in aggregate. There are a number of separate property markets operating in Dublin alone. Trends in some of them drown out others and give a wrong impression of movements. I'll give you an example.

Say the market crudely consisted of 30% FTB new builds market, 30% used market that was owner-occupied and 30% ex-rentals. Say also that owner-occupied used housing is better quality than ex-rentals and worth on average 50k more due to better finish.

Now imagine all used owner-occupied housing is withdrawn from the market as selling in a chain with high interest rates is too cumbersome for most and owners decide to wait out the interest rate rises.

The market is now only new builds and ex-rentals. It's obvious the prices on average should drop in Dublin now as the housing stock on sale is of worse quality. Even if ex-rentals increase in price, just not by 50k, then the market will still seem like on average the properties are dropping in price. But it's a false dawn as the quality had also dropped.

If you monitor a certain area owner-occupied 3 bedroom semi-d's only you'll see that prices are actually up. But the headline rate is drowned out by ex-rentals being put on the market in droves.

FledNanders · 07-09-2023 2:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080706#Comment_121080706

Agreed. I can't stand the way the media jump all over these headline price % changes when it doesn't remotely show what is really going on underneath.

'Ready to move in' second hand houses have not dropped in value at all in Dublin as far as I see, and as I hear from friends who are house hunting. In fact the opposite.

Perhaps the price of do-er uppers or probate sales have fallen due to high renovation costs. So the ratio of Ready to Move in V Do-er uppers sold in a period can have a distortive impact on the overall % price change, amongst loads of other factors.

DownByTheGarden · 07-09-2023 5:20pm

If you are in the market I think going for a detached property with a decent garden is the way to go. These will be so sought after in years to come. New builds are just not what they used to be.

Former Former Former · 07-09-2023 5:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080585#Comment_121080585

Prices had been falling MOM too - but not in any meaningful way, and it's not across the board - prices fell in Dublin city, but rose in Dublin South.

TLDR - if people are hoping for a price crash to swoop in and buy, there's no sign of that yet.

Wanderer78 · 07-09-2023 6:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121079289#Comment_121079289

...jesus this horsesh1t, once again, our current problems are primarily supply side, and the serious lack of, solution, build the damn things!!!!!

...and once again, property price inflation in modern economies is primarily due to excess credit in our economies, inflating property prices, states have little or no control of this form of money and its creation, as it occurs within our global financial systems, primarily our banks...

...the 08 crash was in fact largely due to this financialised approach to property, i.e. the state steps back from providing this critical need, and encourages and facilitates the fire sectors to do so, but their objectives is ultimately to continually inflate assets prices, no matter what....

...circumstances dont exist, you must be joking, with global private debt levels now even higher than 08, and with property prices also heading towards all time highs, and not just in ireland.....

jesus you free market fruit cakes really are all over the shop, and you want to reduce the productive capacity of our economy, to try solve this, thank god you folks are no where near policy makers, then again, you might just give them a laugh if you were!

Bobeagleburger · 07-09-2023 6:26pm

You need to take some comments with a pinch of salt. There's clearly posters with skin in the game, and it takes about 2 seconds to figure out who.

Anyone old enough to go through a few boom bust cycles knows there's another one due at some stage.

Thespoofer · 07-09-2023 6:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121080133#Comment_121080133

The one thing about this statement that I don't understand is it was similar during the last crash, I believe there was approximately €90 billion in savings and people didn't seem to want to snap up obvious bargains that were out there.