FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

😂 don't need to state the obvious of the likelihood of this happening!

Whatever about the depth of cold or if it goes on to be a west based nao, I see this going on for a while-maybe not a month or more of below average all the time, but certainly below average at times well into April due to downwelling waves from the strat. A bit like March 2013 in that regard. I just hope we can get something like Northern Ireland had back in late March 2013, but this time nationwide and preferably before mid March. I don't ask for much. Ha

The best scenario would be if we get snow on the ground is a lot of cloudy weather to keep the snow intact, but even then there would be some melt. I just hope some year in the future, before I pop my clogs, we can get a SSW in late December so we have the chance of a significant cold spell in the heart of winter.

Before we get too comfortable with seeing these runs, I would expect further volatility in output for the next week especially the coming weekend when the next spike in warming occurs. Otherwise everything described in previous posts from myself and some others applies the exact same here.

Yes, right to be cautious we could just as easily end up with a west based NAO and zonal by default. I would dearly love that ECM to come off, we could be in Polar Low terrority if it did. It will not be a shock of if it is an outlier, though

For sure we are at the start of a cold spell now. Temperatures are rarely going to be above 10c (Maybe today). It will be dry and cold for the next week with single figures by day and below zero at night. Hopefully this can pave the way for some proper cold in March.

Be cautious though. There are odd outliers in the models that bring in milder Southerlies and push the cold East but that time around March 6th looks particularly cold on most model output.

It's only 2 weeks away now. What could go wrong? Read on one of the rags that it could be minus 10 in March. Just read it not saying I believe it.

It's true cold has been pushed back and downgraded on op runs, but look at the mean and control runs, the ec46 and the NOAA charts they have been consistently showing a high toward Greenland by around the 7th of March onwards. Until these change I am optimistic of a cold outbreak. Its just a question of how cold- at this time of year we all know what brings snow in the winter months could lead to cold rain now. Anyone expecting a beast from the east scenario is going to be disappointed. That was a rare as hens teeth situation, which followed a classic textbook split, hence the relatively smooth countdown to the severe cold outbreak.

In such a complex situation with the mjo in phase 6 and 7, and the rare occurrence of two or three warmings in close proximity, you are going to have wild swings in op runs. So putting too much stock in op runs is flawed until the final warming in the series has occurred. If by Mid week onwards , we see no signs of a colder outbreak into week two of March, then I would be inclined to agree this SSW is probably a bust for us. As there should be a quicker tropospheric response to this last warming

By the way what we are seeing presently in the attempted Greenland high is probably in response to the mjo, not the ssw.

Anecdotally it feels that poor springs proceed hot summers. Certainly was the case in 2013, and 1995