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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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25-02-2023 12:11pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Spring 2023.
If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
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After another mild Irish winter we now turn our attention to Spring. We are currently in a relatively dry pattern since the second week of January and this looks like continuing for at least another 7 to 10 days. The first half of March is likely to be fairly dry overall with high pressure near or over us much of the time.
After a very warm February, temperatures have cooled down back to about average for the time of year. Temperatures look like they will stay close to average for the first week of March with maybe a slight cooling trend for the second week of March. Frost is possible at times over the coming 7 to 14 days but as of now there is nothing particularly cold in the outlook with night time temperatures generally above 0C for the most part, however we may get a few nights of -1 or -2C. Day time temperatures generally between 6 and 11C.
At the moment it is looking unlikely we will see any significant cold outbreaks for the first half of March with Ireland possibly stuck in no mans land between cold northerly plunges to our east and milder more unsettled conditions from the Atlantic which will struggle to make much progress over us.
There is a chance we may have some cold spells around the middle of March which will either produce some cold rain or wet snow depending on if we get a direct hit or a glancing blow.
Up to the 7th of March looks mostly dry but there is a trend to turn things more unsettled as we begin the second week of March. This is dependent on either the Atlantic making a come back with mild and unsettled conditions or an unstable and cold plunge from the east/north-east. If these 2 scenarios don't happen we are likely to stay high and dry into the middle of March but that is a long way off.
Most of the GFS ensemble members keep things relatively mild or average in terms of upper air temperatures up to the middle of March with not much support for genuine cold.
Just for reference the ECM ensembles are very similar keeping things relatively dry till the 7th of March and temperatures around average for the time of year.
GFS precipitation charts show little to no rainfall over the next 10 days or so. A chance of some light rain showers on the eastern and southern coasts as well as coastal areas of Donegal.
At the very end of week 2 of March not much change, still looking largely dry across the country so it's very possible we are looking at a very dry first half to March.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on19
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-20C dew points near the south-east coast of England, very believable also. The 12z is obviously an outlier but not on it's own, there are 3 other members that go significantly colder around the -15 to -16 upper air temperature range. The pub run should sober up later.
Post edited by Gonzo on3 -
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Pub run tonight, a definite warm outlier but temperatures lifting up and taking off into the middle of March with temperatures possibly reaching 18C or 19C if it verified.
Overall the ensemble backs away further from anything remotely cold with a fairly significant swing to mild. Temperatures reaching 20 or 21C in parts of England on this run if it verified.
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The GFS 00z and 06z continue with an average to mild, sometimes very mild outlook. It is becoming much clearer now that the chance of getting a proper cold snap or spell in the first half of March is looking increasingly unlikely. Unless we see a sudden change in the models by tomorrow or Tuesday at the latest, I am done looking for cold and snow at this point and see what next winter brings, but i'm quickly losing my enthusiasm for winter in general.
Summer is quickly becoming my favourite season as we usually do get some nice summery days or spells. Our summers are not the best but at least they make some sort of a half decent effort most years which sadly cannot be said about our non event winters.
As for this Spring I'm hoping for a generally anti cyclonic Spring with plenty of dry weather, some sunshine and warmer than average temperatures (although I think March will be fairly average overall).
Back to the GFS and the models look like the Atlantic is going to make a come back around the 7th to 11th of March and we go flat as a pancake with mild and cooler sectors alternating.
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The current major SSW will peak Monday night around ~-19 m/s and will take 2 weeks to recover back to westerly. If we are to see any effect it will be from the second week of March. However, it must be said that there are overall less perturbations taking the 850hPa temperature below average in the day 8-16 timeframe around the expected window of effects from the major SSW. This despite the PV getting displaced towards Asia which you can see nicely on the northern hemispheric view of model charts. Goes to show the fluidity of the weather patterns and another example of why there are never any guarantees with our weather even when there is a high degree of risk.
The initial northerly/retrogression for the 3rd-6th March that was possible due to MJO looks to have flopped a few days ago. Not enough oomph to send the high northwestward. The negatively tilted Atlantic low not in a position for warm air advection to aid the high.
I am definitely less "positive" than I was previously for us to advect in some cold air that would be conducive to a significant cold spell but at the same time I will be glad to be wrong because I don't want that. A significant cold spell at that time of year will still get afternoon highs to 4 or 5C usually unless there's persistent heavy snow or fog. Both of which are difficult to achieve, especially fog with the sun getting stronger day by day. I am way past enjoying winter. If I didn't experience the snow in the mountains or on the southside of Dublin in December, this would probably be up with the worst winters I've seen for my location and be glad to see the back of it. Had more snow on 7th January 2022 than this winter which is pathetic especially given this winter had at least two reasonable colder than average periods. Glad some have had a better winter than some years of late with their January snow but I can't relate.
The main point in the outlook is how anticyclonic it will be with a dry end to February and start to March under plentiful high pressure but it will be chilly with an easterly wind drawing in fair amounts of cloud. Good that Gonzo brought this up yesterday as with all the talks of major SSW and cold potential, this has been put to the side it seems and there should be more discussion surrounding it than there has been. It does make me wonder though, we've been at large in this settled regime under relatively mild high pressure since mid-January once the frosts disappeared from the cold northwesterly episode. How long before we find ourselves in an Atlantic dominated regime again? Doesn't look like for at least a week at the earliest, possibly longer if this ridge stays around for a while.
There's still time for a change it must be stressed. But less likely than it was looking on previous days.
On a thread related note, just amusing to note... a rare GFS win from 10 days ago versus the corresponding ECM at the time. High pressure much more centrally located on GFS which has been the case compared to the ECM which had high pressure further south.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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GFS following up on its afternoon run. Slightest changes in that retrograded high over Greenland holds the key to whether a cold spell of weather will materialise. Milder air attempts to push in the days that follow.
Whether/weather as always for Ireland
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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