FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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As much as I LOVE the heat and sunshine, I have to agree with @Larbre34 in that there has been an improvement in Irish summers of late although 2022 is very fresh in my mind so I could be a bit biased. "IF" the Irish summers are becoming warmer, sunnier and calmer (Jesus, I hate the wind!) as a result of climate change, then there is a chance that our climate will become more akin to the likes of Brittany in France, but without risks of extreme heat the odd time in the summer during a heatwave with winds from the east or south east. Maybe I'm just overly wishing!
Keeping on topic, the latest stratospheric forecast from GFS which shows this for around now:
This for 24th February. Major warming at the North Pole with the polar vortex completely displaced to Western Russia and barely recognisable:
And a couple of days later, at the end of the run, the warming over the North Pole is beginning to subside but another is developing quickly over northern Siberia and the Polar Vortex is more or less obliterated. Bear in mind this is the GFS but it is not alone on the SSW idea.
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CFS extended finally delivers winter for second half of March on the latest run. Unlikely to verify but in reality I would like if we could get this in the first half of March rather than the second half, but after a mild lame winter at this stage we will have to take what we get.
Becoming much cooler around the middle of March with winds in from the north-east.
Paddys Day would be anything but green particularly in Leinster. Lovely Greenland High just where you want it.
Bitterly cold air and some stiff winds screeching in from the east in a very unstable flow.
A threat of low pressures bumping into the very cold air could give serious disruption depending on where the track of low pressure sits, particularly on the northern side, however warm sectors with the low pressure could cause problems for coastal areas in particular, However if this verified much of the country would be covered in snow.
After the low passes we are back in a bitterly cold north-easterly, this would be day 10 of snow potential.
Remains very cold until the end of the month and milder air eventually breaks through on April 1.
Now if only this would verify, this is the CFS afterall so several dumpster trucks of salt required for this one. However it is worth noting that the CFS has been playing around with a cold to very cold March for several weeks now, but in reality if we are to get some cold weather in March it is very unlikely to last as long as what I have just posted, I would be expecting something more toned down in reality.
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The major sudden stratospheric warming is set to occur tomorrow evening and Thursday should be the first full day of easterlies at 60N 10hPa (known as the central date). If we use the minimum threshold of 2 weeks for impacts, that takes us to Thursday March 2nd. This gives us an idea of the earliest we should see the impacts being felt from the SSW if we are going to see downward propagation or a tropospheric response. As it's over 2 weeks away, reliability on what models say should be non-existent because different solutions will be played with.
A complicating factor I have not discussed is whilst there is a major warming going to take place at 10hPa, in the lower stratosphere closer to the troposphere, the polar vortex is more stubborn. If propagation occurs in the longer term, this will not matter. Why I mention it is because it might be important in determining the latitude the MJO amplification might gain hold. The MJO favours a mid-Atlantic to Greenland block with a Scandi trough towards the end of the month. However as is usual, the state of the polar vortex at the time will have a say on how far north that block gets. If it's a mid-Atlantic ridge, you can expect transient northerlies or northwesterlies. If it's more over Greenland/Iceland, you can expect more of a northeasterly tilt.
As the CFSv2 keeps being brought up here, I might as well mention it too despite its usefulness being questionable a lot of the time. The model shows a very strong negative NAO signature for March 2023 at the moment with strong Greenland blocking. The way the Atlantic trough is aligned wouldn't be that conducive to a cold or very cold month though and in fact could find ourselves often in southerly winds. Details like that will not be firmed up on this early. The trough was much closer to us in some prior updates in an even more conducive southerly wind pattern. There will highly likely be more changes.
There is no beast from the east in the forecast and although you cannot fully discount one happening, going to put my neck out and say there will not be one happening. This setup is very different to 2018. 2018 was a major split of the stratospheric polar vortex with daughter vortices set up in the perfect way conducive for a long fetched easterly from the heart of Siberia and the progression of the Ural high retrogressing to Greenland complimented that all along with favourable MJO amplification. In fact the retrogression in 2018 was too strong to the point that the block became west based -NAO and retrogressed to North America which allowed Storm Emma to successfully undercut ending the cold spell early although of course on the St. Patrick's Day weekend, we got a renewed easterly push. It's rare enough we get all the drivers in sync with one another and part of why, aside from our geography, these severe cold wintry spells are exceedingly rare.
Just for the record, I don't want cold weather. I am well over it. I am on the spring train. Although if snow does occur, I will make the most of it and enjoy it.
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