FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120159251#Comment_120159251

The ECM are flirting with the notion of heights building north with heights also building from north of Scandi. The Euro high would want to be much further west of course but it's worth keeping an eye on. The mean pressure ens for the ECM is however, heading a different direction to the op run.

It looks like the AO and NAO plateau or dip slightly in positive territory around the middle of the first week of February. If there is any kick left in this winter, then it is likely we will be waiting until mid February (week 3) for same. Can't see any significantly cold weather occuring before then at this stage. I am happy about the drier weather though. Was getting close to putting dehumidifiers in my garden!

WolfeEire

GFS op on the afternoon sherry again

almostthere12

Just waiting for the last few frames to load as round 2 is incoming and looks better than round 1...........I'm having whatever the GFS is on!!

Gonzo

That GFS is chilly but even if it was to verify (which it won't) we are still left high and dry as pressure is too high over us but plenty of snow south of us over the continent. The high pressure would need to nudge about 300-500km further north then we would be in business. This run is most likely an extreme outlier just like yesterdays 12z.

nacho libre

The high is looking to head North West around the 10th to 11th, if it gets into Greenland fully then we have the golden ticket. It might be an outlier, but I would wait to see what the ECM comes up with before dismissing it completely.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120161661#Comment_120161661

Just very hard to believe anything the GFS prints out anymore, the GFS up to the recent update was very good imo but since the update it's becoming increasingly difficult to take it seriously anymore.

Just thinking of the crazy and very wonky looking GFS charts as we head into the summer.

nacho libre

It would not take much for this to become very good further on. At the very least we maybe extending the dry spell. Those hoping for storms maybe disappointed, though .

Gonzo

If we can't get snow then continue with the dry, if it turns into delivering something special by the 2nd or 3rd week of February then all the better.

Just no more conveyer belt Atlantic onslaught, seen enough rain in the past 4 months to last me a few years.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120161661#Comment_120161661

GFS 18z at it again. 🤔

The 12z was an outlier. Will see if any members follow this one.

esposito

Heights pushing nicely into Greenland by 384hrs on the 06z GFS. I know I know but nice to look at.

nacho libre

We have to hope this is a case of the ops leading the ensembles. It's not usually the case, though. What I will say about the GFS is it does sometimes latch on to a change, then drop it, only to come back to it in future runs.

mcburns07

The lack of posts on here says it all really. A very bland winter devoid of interesting weather.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120172331#Comment_120172331

Bring it on, I can start doing varied outside things soon. If this continues for another few weeks, I may even get started on some basic gardening chores. It's a bit breezy today though. I adore calm conditions. Not great for wind driven electricity but it's not too often that it's calm at the off shore wind farms.

Derekon2021

OK I'll say what everyone is thinking.....with the next 10 days looking dry and largely mild (thank God), at the end of that period, we'll be into mid February........I think winter is largely over.......brighter days and a stronger sun on the way!

D

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173117#Comment_120173117

February is a great month for shhleettt and accumulations on high ground.

So yeah winter is done, lawnmowers is the next sound we will be hearing.

nacho libre

I do appreciate the drying out period, but after a while it feels like a waste of seasons for me. Let Spring be mild and pleasant and winter be cold and snowy, or cold and very frosty. It used to be that February was our best month for snow chances. I see some GFS runs are still toying with the idea of a Scandi high but of course on the latest one it's positioned in such a way that the cold probably won't push this way.

Hooter23

We get brighter days and stronger sun but its makes little difference winter is never over in this country...you wouldn't even notice the difference in seasons only for the longer days thats about it...the stronger sun makes no difference either you still be freezing down the beach even in the middle of summer most of the time...must be only country in the world were you would still need big jacket on in the middle of the summer...its sounds like a joke but its not its reality

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120172331#Comment_120172331

The dry weather is great but have to admit this is another dead duck of a winter that never delivered and time to put the winter out of it's misery and move onto Spring. We will probably see some snow in early Spring after a failed winter, always the way.

There is still a remote chance the final 10 days of February could deliver something but looking at all the current modeling I wouldn't be banking on magic to happen.

esposito

As Nacho said February used to be our best bet for proper cold and snow. Not anymore sadly. Last good February was 2018 and before that 2009 I think? Not good. As a result my expectations for this February to deliver are very very low.

.Donegal.

Playing devils advocate here but February hasn’t even happened yet even though the first week of it looks useless let’s not write it off completely yet.

Rebelbrowser

Just to keep interest even faintly alive, thought it would be fun to post the best chart I could find. The below chart (Perturbation 16 from the 6z GFS) for 12 February would do me nicely!

.Donegal.

..

mcburns07

Oh go on then !

screamer

I won’t give up hope till March is over, we often get a snow day here in March, it’s a way too early to give up yet.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120173333#Comment_120173333

You're right. All those days last summer when it was close to 30º felt freezing.

And those summer nights when it stays mild until 9pm or 10pm feel the exact same as a winter's night...

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120179931#Comment_120179931

People have short memories 😂 as much as we complain, our summers really aren’t that bad.

nacho libre

If a Scandi high does come to pass it will be some achievement by the GFS. It will have been proven right despite zero ensembles support at the very beginning last week. It will also show that despite an ominous looking polar vortex and a positive nao that blocking to the North East is possible. We may still end up being too far west to get the cold air here. England will have a better chance, but could miss out too on the coldest air if the high does not orientate correctly to allow the really cold air move westwards off the continent.

PokeHerKing

What could go wrong

Rebelbrowser

Cold goes south of us on the GFS 6z but still a push from the east, as there is on the 0z ECM (but neither yielding anything like what we want). At least this looks different to this time yesterday and there are at least some crumbs for us to feast upon...

Gonzo

It's going to be rough seeing winter wonderland scenes from Athens next week, it looks like they may get 2 proper beasts one after another with more than a weeks worth of daily snowfalls.

We can only dream of the above and stay dreaming. None of the sloppy North Atlantic mixing rubbish that we get, all dry powder.