FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

.Donegal. · 31-01-2023 3:21pm

I was happy enough with the “sloppy North Atlantic mixing rubbish” that lay for 5 days a few weeks ago. Must book a flight to the warmest capital city in Europe to experience some proper winter conditions.

nacho libre · 31-01-2023 5:51pm

You might not need to go to Athens according to the latest GFS!

WolfeEire · 31-01-2023 6:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120183239#Comment_120183239

GFS ens mean not a million miles off

nacho libre · 31-01-2023 6:52pm

Woah the GFS has hit the bottle early again. -12 into parts of the east for Valentine's Day. Pity all this was not at t48. I wonder willl the ECM show any support for this. If it does not and sides towards the UKMO earlier on with a flatter pattern, i think the chances of the GFS being right are not good.

WolfeEire · 31-01-2023 10:16pm

Ecm was a mild outlier. The mean is on the cold side but nothing exceptional.

nacho libre · 31-01-2023 10:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120184586#Comment_120184586

Something like that maybe the outcome at least for the moment , we get the scraps - bits of continental cold - while the likes of Greece goes in the freezer

WolfeEire · 01-02-2023 1:08am

Met Éireann monthly outlook bullish on above average temps and unsettled conditions next week. Ukmo the same

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/monthly-forecast

PokeHerKing · 01-02-2023 11:27am

GFS still churning out the eye candy 🥶

Rebelbrowser · 01-02-2023 11:47am

A few frames later its better again...

esposito · 01-02-2023 11:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120186222#Comment_120186222

GFS, please stop teasing us and giving us false hope. You know you are wrong.

EC and UKMO not on board so….

Rebelbrowser · 01-02-2023 11:52am

Actually, helluva similarity now between the operational run and the random perturbation 16 I posted for a laugh a few days ago...

Perturbation 16 from 2 days ago...

And today's 6z gfs for the same time

pauldry · 01-02-2023 11:53am

GFS must stand for Generating False Snow

nacho libre · 01-02-2023 11:54am

Well this is going to be either a massive victory for the GFS or....

With the Euro and UKMO against it I think it's the or... but rank outsiders do come through to win sometimes.

Gonzo · 01-02-2023 12:12pm

this time I'm not buying into it, need to see cross model agreement before any hints of excitement, we've been lead down the garden path several times over the past 2 to 3 winters.

Billcarson · 01-02-2023 2:44pm

Great 06z run this morning,gfs not backing down for now. Imagine if /when it backs down the other models take up the cold batten lol. That would really mess with our heads. Lol

Gonzo · 01-02-2023 2:49pm

GFS 6z has basically no support other than 2 other members so the chances of this verifying are almost 0.0%

a wild cold outlier. A huge amount of scatter from 7th of February but the overall trend is to keep temperatures and precipitation close to average.

pauldry · 01-02-2023 10:13pm

Think late February and March might bring late cold if the stars align.

That Polar Mish Mash might affect us then. Or nothing. But one has to hope.

Also there does look to be a brief cold snap chance around mid month but this is 50/50 at best.

Gonzo · 01-02-2023 10:18pm

I think we could easily get some cold around final week of February/beginning of March. Not really buying into the mid month cold spell other than a glancing blow as that cold is most likely to flow south-westwards across the continent and miss us entirely. Hope i'm wrong as I would much rather some decent cold week 2 of February compared to final week of the month or early March which is worse again.

Overall the GFS 12z brings extra members into the mild category and the ensemble mean is starting to trend above average rather than average.

PokeHerKing · 01-02-2023 11:23pm

GFS is gonna be a hero or zero

John.Icy · 01-02-2023 11:51pm

Can someone with the required knowledge point out whether much snow is even possible on some of the GFS runs? Pressure above 1035 hPa. Can deep cold arriving override a pressure pattern that typically would be dry or very light precip. at best? The below is not a snowy chart to me but instability and all that is not my area.

By Day 10, the GFS does have thickness lowering and pressure dropping as an LP forms south of Ireland, so a snowier setup. However that seems to cut off the cold and spell an end to the pattern. But before then and previous GFS runs I would have said it'll be close but no cigar if those runs came off. Looks great for the continent though.

Honestly, if this is all put to rest in the next two days, I don't know where the GFS goes from here. It's already fallen behind both the GEM and JMA since the upgrade and resides 5th place in the model verification stats at several lead times. Sure most people wouldn't even monitor the JMA on a daily basis so where does that leave the GFS? It really really needs some sort of win soon.

esposito · 01-02-2023 11:52pm

A pub run special. Brutal cold heading west across England and Wales and dare I say it over to Ireland.

WolfeEire · 02-02-2023 12:29am

The op on somewhat of a solo run.

BUT, it has more support compared to the 00z (bottom). It has a long way to travel on its own to get to deep cold next week, nevermind the lack of any real support from other models.

Fascinating to watch all the same

Re: @John.Icy a more ENE to NE airflow would be more favourable as the sea fetch in a ESE or E is not as great for streamers. That low coming out of Biscay mind you....🤤

Rebelbrowser · 02-02-2023 12:44am

Probably been asked and answered but didn't the GFS show the February/ March 2018 cold spell first?

pauldry · 02-02-2023 1:00am

Yes but since it got upgraded its output verification and accuracy have gone in the other direction.

Gonzo · 02-02-2023 2:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120190187#Comment_120190187

Yeah you can't compare the GFS of 2018 to the new 2023 one, it's been terrible and barely anything posted in this thread from the GFS FI charts has ever verified since the update except for some of the mild outcomes. None of the easterlies, snowy, stormy or exceptionally mild stuff has verified.

Rebelbrowser · 02-02-2023 8:39am

I see now the GFS is going for an extended very cold spell but is still completely on its own! Mad stuff....

PokeHerKing · 02-02-2023 9:00am

No let up from the GFS. Serious consistency all the same. The GFS has picked up the spells in early December and January.

So it's picking up the ones that count. Hopefully it'll be 3 in a row but it is literally on its Toblerone with this so I'm not breaking out the snow shovel yet.

Billcarson · 02-02-2023 10:19am

Well I suppose the longer the gfs sticks to its guns the better the chance for a cold spell. Unlikely but the fact its still going for it must lower the odds.