FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

WolfeEire

There is a strong sense of inevitability about a cold spell during the first half of March. The indications for the December cold spell were there 2-3 weeks in advance and I feel it is the same here. If there is a second warming and subsequent displacement event over the Pole next weekend, as is currently suggested, then spring could be put on hold for some time. Not great for farmers (lambing season underway), gardeners, and partly clad St Patrick's Day parade participants if it does materialise.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260642#Comment_120260642

Yes, I think you're right. The NOAA charts and anamoly charts all suggest a Greenland high developing during the first week of March. It is just a question of how cold it gets. There is a slight danger that the high eventually ends up going too far west so that we end up with a west based nao as we saw in 2018. The Atlantic would likely sneak back in this scenario , but hopefully there would be some snow around before that happens- if it happens at all.

sryanbruen

There is a real good chance that we'll see a classic retrogression later in the month into March. It could be a case of the MJO imprint finally being realised and the secondary SSW is only feeding into this. The secondary SSW looks to be critical and would have struggled to produce much without it despite all the kicking and screaming the polar vortex has suffered since January. The GFS shows successful downward propagation of the warming into March with a -AO being predicted at all levels.

What does this mean? There is a high chance of cold weather on the way in March and how cold it gets will be dependent on how this blocking develops. Lots to watch. If you're a mild lover hoping for early spring, look away it's a grim outlook as the legend McCaskill used to say.

Billcarson

Another March 2013? Only Perhaps the cold starting earlier. The cold in March that yr didn't get going till around the 10th/11th. This year a week earlier?? If it all plays out of course.......

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260843#Comment_120260843

Yes, that looks to be the case according to Simon Lee:

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1626423870893748226?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1626423870893748226%7Ctwgr%5E2dc3fbf7d3acade30807a01ebf07a428a7e7223d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcommunity.netweather.tv%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FSimonLeeWx%2Fstatus%2F1626423870893748226%3Fs%3D20

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260941#Comment_120260941

Yes a high risk of prolonged -NAO conditions setting up. Due to wavelengths and all that, it'll be more difficult for the -NAO to subside.

In March 2013, a prolonged cold spell set up starting on 10th March and mild weather did not successfully dislodge the cold airmass until April 14th. There'll be a stats post coming sometime on it for its 10th anniversary in my stats thread. Next one will be a short one on the 90th anniversary of a huge snowstorm that hit Ireland in February 1933.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120261001#Comment_120261001

The synoptics of this March id say might resemble the first week or 2 of 2006 . Greenland high. More in the way of northerlies then easterlies. A northerly version of 2013??

WolfeEire

GFS more Arctic Express than BFTE. Seriously cold charts from 3-4 March. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

pauldry

Ya looking at GFS looks like we're in the freezer but what does the more reliable ECM say. I don't really bother with GFS anymore since it's always wrong and really only art.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120267403#Comment_120267403

We all do. The ECM looks poised at day 10 for the high to go North West. Its just a question of if we can then get a direct hit from Arctic air and avoiding the high going too far west as it did in 2018. However back then we got a snow storm out of it. No indication of anything like that happening this time.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260843#Comment_120260843

Latest EC46 shows just this. BL+ = Scandinavian high and NAO- = higher pressure around Iceland/Greenland. The retrogression is very clear here. This goes onto producing a very blocked, cold March. Still nothing too crazy showing in the more medium range output aside from crazy GFS outliers such as that 0z and 18z yesterday but that's to be expected as the window of expected effects is beyond the capabilities of the modelling. Don't be surprised to see delays but somewhere is going to get a notably cold March. Whether that's Ireland or not waits to be seen.

nacho libre

Epic control. The whole motherload descends on us!

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120267865#Comment_120267865

👀 👀👀👀

almostthere12

Nacho where on meteociel can you get the ecm charts out to the 6th of March? Thanks

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120268011#Comment_120268011

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

Here go. 192 hrs plus

And this is the ensembles mean 192+

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&mode=0&code=31&ext=0

konman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120268011#Comment_120268011

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble CEP/ECMWF ENS

Rebelbrowser

Think he asked for ECM Wolfie as Nacho posted something from the ECM suite for out to +336hrs being 6 March. I'd be curious too.

Edit - I see Konman has pasted above, had no idea that existed

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120268165#Comment_120268165

Yeah it was the ECM one I was after, thanks Konman

pauldry

The GFuselesS shows it getting milder at the end of its run this morning.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120268686#Comment_120268686

Reflected in MT’s update this morning. It’s probably right about the mild but usually wrong about cold 😂

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120268686#Comment_120268686

Yeah, but the great thing about the GFS is there will be another run available in a few minutes probably showing snowmaggedon again....

Gonzo

Not much cold on any of the models aside from a few rogue wild outliers, it looks like any cold is going to plunge into the eastern half of Europe and miss western Europe completely. First week of March is now looking increasingly mild on both the GFS and ECM ensembles. Maybe some cold for the second week of March but this is all too late. In reality the second week of March will probably end up being the 3th or 4th week of March and by then we can basically forget about any lying snow unless we get an exceptional direct hit. CFS also starting to show milder runs overall compared to what it was doing up to last week.

nacho libre

The problem is Gonzo we have for a few days now seen that we are relying on the second warming to bring about colder conditions in the trop. So the second week of March onwards looks like the time we will see colder weather, if at all. The UKMO long range are now talking about the possibility of disruptive wintry weather further on in March. Also there is a strong signal on the EC46 for a Greenland high sometime around Mid March. This is no guarantee we will get a direct hit, but there is a chance. Of course it would be better if this was happening even a month ago, but its a long time till next winter so I will take snow in March. Something like last nights ECM control will do nicely !

esposito

12z's minus the ECM are looking much better for cold (and potential snow) in March!

Gonzo

The GFS 12z certainly better but the real cold still stays to the north of us. Along way to go with this one.

Saw an article from one of the rag papers saying a beast from the east is on the way for 6th of March. The chart they showed for this showing a north-westerly flow with snow showers in the north-west and nothing for the rest of the country. That is not a beast from the east, just standard Atlantic cold, these papers haven't a clue.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120271371#Comment_120271371

The rag papers are getting worse! Irish papers are catching up with the British ones.

waterwelly

Saw somebody on about winter tyres for the incoming cold spell just now, so I knew it was probably a busted flush, came here for confirmation.

The problem is the media pick the juiciest chart they can find and run with it and most people don't realise it's just one of many possible outcomes being modelled.

Rebelbrowser

ECM this morning is interesting. A frame away at 240 hours from the kind of serious northerly outbreak the GFS has been predicting off and on?

Darwin

Yes indeed and the GEM shows a remarkably similar profile at 240H.

WolfeEire

And the JMA at 240hrs. Personally, I always look at the Japanese model when there is a risk of cold weather developing as it is quite good at that range (seriously!).