FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

esposito

I will happily take snow in March. But for April/ Easter period, no thanks.

nacho libre

If we do end up with a southerly due to the pv moving too far east in the end it will really take the biscuit. Personally I hope your spring train is derailed by two foot of snow. Although I appreciate farmers with new born lambs might not agree with me on this

WolfeEire

A trend towards negative AO and NAO values now showing up for the early days of March. Not quite there yet though

WolfeEire

The 12z GFS, GEM and UKMO have all shifted to a cooler setup from Tuesday next week. An area of high pressure to our south shifts further west allowing for a Polar Maritime airflow to become established over Ireland. The airmass itself is not so significant in terms of cold but the placement of the highs is notable. The GEM in particular has a nice northeasterly fetch extending over Ireland by Thursday. The shift to cold may be transient but the subtle changes in the positioning of the area of high pressure to our west are worth watching. Presently, there is little indication of heights building over Greenland but with all thats going on over the Pole, what happens up north will resolve itself over time.

PokeHerKing

Pub run delivering 👌

Rebelbrowser

Some colder charts now beginning to appear consistently in the GFS runs. Nothing to write home about but progress certainly...

Meteorite58

Cooler, wetter with wintry showers showing up from around mid week on the ECM now for a few runs, might see a few white caps on mountains again at the end of next week, more unsettled and changeable then our recent spell of weather, bit of a shake up to the recent patterns to something new if anything, nothing too stand out at this stage although the GFS does show very cold airs coming in from the E / NE in the outer stages of FI, bit of interest there to keep an eye on.

nacho libre

I think I have more of a chance of knocking out Tyson Fury than the GFS op being right in deep FI! It really has been woeful since the upgrade

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120254494#Comment_120254494

I think the ensembles have performed quite well but the Op run has been desperately poor since the upgrade. Tends to be the outlier (mildest or coldest) each time. I actually gave up early last month on looking at the op run and just wait for the ens to come out.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120244366#Comment_120244366

The NAO is forecast to dip into negative at the end of the month.

WolfeEire

UK Met Office

Saturday 4 Mar - Saturday 18 Mar

High pressure probably continuing dominant across the UK through the first week of March, any more unsettled weather probably across the far north or northwest, with a low likelihood for strong easterly winds in the south. Through the rest of March blocked or easterly conditions are expected with the high likely to move further in the north and lower pressure developing to the South. Occasional Atlantic fronts progressing eastwards across the UK, are not ruled out, but less likely. Temperatures will most likely start off around average, but there is increasing likelihood of colder conditions (relative to average). Cold nights are likely in places throughout the period.

PokeHerKing

We're gonna need more salt

Gonzo

I will probably open the Spring FI thread this coming week, winter has basically run out of road in terms of fi charts and any sort of interesting/eye candy is now clearly in Spring which is too late imo. I kinda lost interest in SSW developments and looking at snow potential after valentines day because we are now too late in the season, all the ships have sailed etc. While it would be nice to see some snow during the first week of March my focus is now on Spring and warmer weather: the long road to summer 2023. It would take some exceptionably cold, bitter, unstable and direct hit north-easterly/long fetch easterly from the Urals to keep me interested for early March snow potential but I think we all know one of those won't happen this year. We may get something much more toned down if we get something at all. I would rather nothing happens this Spring in terms of cold and snow and instead hit some mysterious jackpot mid winter 2023/2024 but I can keep on dreaming.

As for the past 3 months, the snow potential was so poor I didn't even get a chance to open my straws, I'll keep them safe for next winter.

pauldry

Looking at longer term FI March certainly does have a lot of cold coming to it. We have had a lot of cold Marches in previous years and apart from 2013 in Ulster and a few others where there was snow at night or early morning nothing really interesting has occurred. Bar 1963 was it?

Maybe the years ending in 3 are good for March snow. I'd be very surprised if there wasn't one or 2 snowy episodes this March. And who knows with all the crazy weather globally maybe something interesting can come out of it.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120256671#Comment_120256671

Latest CFS for what its worth shows regular shots of cold and wintry weather from 1st of March all the way to the first week of May. I really hope this does not verify. Expensive fuel bills, temperatures that will feel colder than anything over the entire winter period and snow flakes that will melt as soon as they hit the ground (after mid March and April especially).

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120256757#Comment_120256757

I remember a heavy snowfall on April 1st sometime around 2003 or 04. Stayed on the ground but the dripping kicked in much quicker than it would otherwise. I too prefer spring weather in March but I do think we will have some cold shots with snow in places during the month.

Billcarson

Well the last couple of times we have had cold springs resulted in good summers. So if a warm summer is your thing could be long term gain down the road.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120256966#Comment_120256966

Yes, snow can stay on the ground past mid March but you need a lot of it and very cold uppers, even then some melt will occur. In the UK back on the 18th of March 2018 snow stayed on the ground for several days. Also during March 2013. There are reports of snow staying on the ground in April too during snow storms in the last century . With all this in mind I hope Gonzo is snowed in sometime in March for turning his back on snow. Quitter! :)

Gonzo

The only major snow event I can remember during April was sometime back around 1986 or 1987, woke up to 9 inches of snow on the ground before School, it was obviously cancelled. Temperatures were still subzero around 8am. By 10am the clouds had cleared and the temperature shot up. By 3pm there was barely anything left on the ground and we were all back in school the following morning.

Billcarson

Gfs fi charts responding to the ssw I presume.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120257821#Comment_120257821

At my last count, Gonzo has created the "This winter was terrible and is over already" post nearly 140 times now. 😂

I remember a time when this forum was 99% Rampers!!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120258265#Comment_120258265

The rampers were back in the early 2000s. We've had many poor winters or non existent winters since then with 2010 and 2018 being rare exceptions. This winter has seen very little to get excited about since the early December cold spell. It's only now we are starting to see maybe signs of another bite of winter but we have to wait till March for that to happen.

We will turn colder in the second half of this week with a 24 hour northerly topper which is unlikely to amount to anything before we go back into high pressure next weekend which could produce frost and fog.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120258510#Comment_120258510

The last topper delivered for some people . Some forum members had five days with settled snow. I am not saying this one will amount to anything. We will probably have to wait till further into March for something more. Given what Sryan posted earlier regarding the strat there is potential for severe cold to eventually reach us. A repeat of 2018 was always unlikely given we are dealing with a displacement this time, but that does not mean we can't have a noteworthy cold spell sometime in March.

Billcarson

Ecm looking better in fi . Models now beginning to smell something?

nacho libre

Yes, by the 28th it looks like the Pv is on the move to Asia and the high is ready to go North West. Its not a million miles away from the GFS.

.Donegal.

UKMO day 6

And way out in FI gfs. -12 850hPa make it down to the south coast

Niall145

Winter is coming (again)

nacho libre

That GFS run is crazy. The Arctic and Pv descends on Europe.

I do think cold is coming, but just not severe as that. The GFS op as has been mentioned has been awful this winter and it's notorious for over egging cold only to water it down closer to the time.

Gonzo

The GFS 00z is fairly insane alright and almost certainly won't verify with upper air temperatures of -13C across the country. It gets temperatures close to -10C here in Ireland by night but still a few degrees above 0 during daylight hours for a short period of time due to it being early March. It is an extreme outlier but not totally on it's own, 2 other members doing something similar. Overall a cooling trend taking place from 5th of March right at the end of the graph. We should know by the end of the week if this trend may lead to a possible cold outbreak or not.

Overall we turn cooler from about the 27th of February despite the warmer than average upper air temperatures between the 27th of February and the 3rd of March due to us possibly being on the cold side of a ridge which could produce frost and fog. After this the possibilities are open for a proper cold spell but we have a long way to go to begin even estimating our chances.

Niall145

GFS 6z also shows the Arctic plunge, just a few days later