Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Yep, ultimately the EU is just a bit bigger and more important a peace project than NI even though politicians in NI may dispute this with their seemingly boundless arrogance and self importance + victimhood.

The EU members will not let UK delegitimise (maybe destroy) the EU single market and lower its value to members (which is IMO the high level aim here), and if Ireland won't protect it for sake of NI and refuse to impose either customs formalities (paperwork) on NI goods or any physical checks on them, the other members will eventually be forced to start doing them on goods coming from this country sooner or later. The UK will take that as a lesser "win" of sorts for them (it draws Ireland back towards them and also damages the EU badly in a different manner).

Two things on this:-

1. Even with (temporary or otherwise) physical checks on goods between RoI and mainland EU Ireland will still be as attractive a place to invest for exporters as it is today. Physical checks will be risk based and don't equate to customs formalities or tariffs etc. A sample of shipments will be pulled over for checking which, unless you have a bogus load on board, will be nothing more than a minor inconvenience and the chances that a truck shipping a load from a blue chip medical device company like Boston Scientific or IT components from Intel will be pulled over is negligible.
2. The statement that it's madness that a country's border is in the hands of a third country doesn't reflect the reality that borders are shared and not the property of just one of the two countries either side of the border. For borders to be effective requires both countries to check movements of people and goods flowing across (in either direction) but given the dilemma Brexit has caused viz viz NI BoJo & Co are quite happy to change the NIP to effectively remove the Irish Sea border and completely ignore the NI / RoI border thus passing the responsibility for securing the EU market squarely onto RoI and the EU. It is a complete abdication of their international responsibilities but we all know by now that isn't a concern for them and they also feel that if the French don't secure their border to prevent migrants crossing the channel into the UK why should the UK secure either the Irish Sea border or the NI / RoI border in order to protect the EU?

Not sure mainland EU ports will require any additional infrastructure to spot check Irish trucks. They already have infrastructure in place to check UK trucks so if anything I'd say if two ferry's arrive into Cherbourg at the same time, one from Rosslare in Ireland and one from Fishguard in the UK the Irish trucks will be directed through the checking infrastructure as a priority and the UK trucks will just have to wait. The French authorities might stop 1 in 100 Irish trucks to check it's load but in a scenario where the UK were foisting this situation on a fellow EU member like RoI I'd say the ratio of UK trucks being stopped and thoroughly searched (delayed) could increase significantly.

Also, whereas Irish trucks exiting mainland EU into RoI wouldn't require any outbound checks whatsoever (no risk from dodgy UK/NI goods entering the EU in that direction) UK trucks exiting could have additional checks applied to them causing further delays and supply chain issues for the UK.

If they go all the way through with unilaterally ripping up the NIP BoJo and Co will find they have over played their hand. It will take time, possibly a number of years but slowly the EU will squeeze the life out of the UK supply chains until they return to honouring the treaty commitments they made.

If the UK rip up the trade agreement with the EU the there will be checks either on the NI/ROI border or the celtic Sea.

Lots of things will happen in that case. Including a trade war between the UK/EU.

What the checks will look like and where they go between those two options is not something we can say with certainty. What we can say with certainty is the EU will look to protect the SM and preserve the peace as best they can. ROI will have a huge input into all decisions taken.

If we get a decision foisted on us and no material trade war with the UK erupts then I will say to the Frog and any other posters in agreement with them that they were right all along.

Plenty. I live in the ‘triborder’ area with the Belgian, German, French borders each less than 20-odd miles away from us in Luxembourg.

On any given day, whether in Luxembourg, Belgium to the West, France to the South or Germany to the East, there are flying customs ad hoc checkpoints on motorway rest areas, main arteries ‘border’ crossings and industrial estates. With trucks <from everywhere EU and not (Turkish)> stopped, doors opened, and little men in blue with peaked caps swarming over them.

The quality of intelligence must be second to none, an’all. Barely a week goes by, without some French, German or Belgian citizens (several) getting stopped on the road side, checked and arrested by customs for smuggling booze and tobacco products (in quantities exceeding personal consumption levels quite significantly) out of Luxembourg.

Usual spot nearest us is the Lidl car park off the D16 at the entrance to Audun-Le-Tiche (FR), Google map it if you’re bored.

How can the EU protect the SM and also have a border on the Celtic Sea. We are the single market so having that border doesn't protect the single market or the EU.

People forever talking like we are a 3rd country in all of this.

We are not leaving the single market it's pretty clear. It's only cranks and Irexiters saying any different.

You know the kind of people saying I hope it doesn't happen but it will happen.

No.

The checks range from HGV-hauled loads to individuals’ car boots, is the point. Which answers your earlier question, about whether national custom authorities of EU member states check EU loads for risk (/compliance/etc.).

Indeed they do. Not on the scale of EU checks at 3rd country borders/loads, of course, and mostly based on EU-level/cross-country intelligence rather than happenstance/luck of the draw, since they have limited resources.

My concerns are mainly because of the insistence on a hard Brexit, there needs to be a border somewhere. So the big question is where that will be if the UK won't play ball with the deal they have signed?

We are staying in the single market leaving is out of the question. It would cripple the country.

The North isn't the country it was during the troubles and I don't see how a border returns us to it.

There's no need for such absolutes. Nobody om boards has a say in any decisions we're discussing.

There's plenty of water to go under the bridge in any case. Checks om the NI border could be light/only for hauliers etc or similar light type checks in rosslare/dublin etc.

I think a visible, hard NI border affecting everyone will result in terrorism.

So we just bow to the terrorists every time. The ROI has to suffer and take rules from the UK again because the clowns start threatening bombs (which is not definite). The Dail will not risk Irexit over the border.

No certainly not. As I've said previously I just about favour a land border but I'd hope it could be as light as possible.

But if the EU go to town on the UK in a trade war then I'm happy to accept as hard as is required because fairs fair. But there's a lot of road to travel yet so I just don't see the point in posters claiming these weird absolutes like they have a part to play I'm proceedings.

Plus from a Republican perspective I don't want any border with the 6 counties so that clearly basis my thinking somewhat.

A hard border was always accepted as a possibility. A huge amount of work has been done, and an agreement made, to avoid that, but the reality is an always was that if the UK opted to go with full hard or No deal brexit then a border was inevitable.

TM deal, and then the NIP were both designed to avoid a border, but were needed because the reality was that some border is required.

What is clear, is that the UK have been pushing Ireland and the EU as a while, to start to accept that a border is part of the talks. The modus operandi of the UK throughout is to talk about something for so long that it becomes a fact. A16 invoked for example. Reality is not important, only the PR. So the UK want the EU to start to talk about the border as then the UK can claim it was the EU game all along, blah blah, the EU don't care about peace etc.

Of course there will be an agreement, there already is one, and even the EU accept that the operation of the agreement needs work. Hence the massive adjustments they proposed last October. Im fact, it would appear that the EU went much further than the UK expected and took their wind a bit. So out went triggering A16, as clearly the EU had proposed more than enough, and in came breaking the law.

Now, internally this bill would appear to solve the problem. UK gets to appear to be taking back control, the evil NIP is sidelined and the EU will just have to deal with it. The reality, of course, is very different. This bill, if it is ever acted on, will only lead to significant problems for not only NI but the UK as a whole.

Basically it returns the UK to the No deal scenario that they threatened for so long, but ultimately opted out of. Not because they didn't want to, but because despite all the bluster a No Deal is a complete failure and will have huge negative impacts.

That the UK government are left to cry 'patriotism' as a rally call for the bill, we are basically back to the TM government where anyone opposed to anything regarding Brexit is seen as a traitor. They are right back where they started.

Throughout all this the EU has maintained a remarkably steady course. A few hickups here and there, but overall they have played this pretty well, and while things are looking dodgy right now they have managed to manoeuvrer the UK into this spot where the Uk are now faced with ditching international law, annoying the US and setting back attempts to sign future trade deals due to a complete lack of trust around the world.

This bill isn't a sign of strength form the UK, it is the sign of incredible weakness, from a country that has seen itself completely outplayed

Border poll.

I bet they would ya. The other option is to let Westminster win and also cripple our economy.

By the way Ireland and the EU will not ever ever impose a border in Ireland and have made that clear. They even signed a treaty to stop such an occurrence.

It is the UK government that will impose the border and no one else. Any other talk is victim blaming.

My initial reply didn't explain. I didn't mean they would actually have one. jus they would ramp up the calls for one.

Throw that in the mix and suddenly the UK government are actively playing with the union. The Scots would demand one as well. That is pretty intense political pressure and no UK PM want to be the one that signs off on the end of the the union.

SF are not stupid, or short-sighted, enough to actually demand one. But if the Uk insist on ripping up the NIP, and thus meaning a border is required, I think SF will place the border (they have no choice if in government) with the line that a border poll is the only viable option at that stage.