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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Arlene Foster was on GB news lately saying that the plan with Johnson was that the NIP was always only a temporary thing, to get Brexit done. Cummings has pretty much said the same thing.

    So Johnson has tied a weight around the UK neck on the basis that he had his fingers crossed the whole time.

    So the only person messing about with NI is clearly Johnson. The EU saw this agreement as the solution to a problem created by the UK, and have now found that the 'solution' was nothing more than a stroke pulled by the UK.

    It is quite the price to pay to 'get Brexit done'. Internationally seen poorly, although apart from the US I don't see it as a major impediment to future trade deals. Though it will likely mean that trade deals are either much smaller in scope or come with much tougher (read less beneficial to the UK) conditions. He also agreed the finance settlement, for what again could be little more than a few months or extra transition.

    I really do not understand why the UK populace is not more agitated about the clear failure on Johnsons part. I know the media are working hard to cover for him, but even Brexiteers must acknowledge that Johnson has made a bad situation even worse.

    The EU are not going to be in any rush to 'save' Johnson at this point. To save the UK. They will be asking that the protocol be implemented and then they deal with the issues as they arise. Simply claiming that the conditions have been met to trigger A16 is not enough, there must be clear evidence. And many do not seem to understand that A16 does not rip up the agreement, it is a way to deal with specific issues in a collaborative manner. It might temporarily help to overcome some limited and specific issue, but is in no way designed to suspend the entire agreement.

    The NIP was agreed on the basis that a comprehensive trade deal would be agreed, one that would render many of the probable issues as irrelevant. SPS alignment being one area. But Johnson, having agreed the NIP, then went on to sign a very thin deal and as such is left facing the issues he is.





  • It's a big step to proceed to sanctions on the UK. The can has been kicked for a few more months now. 

    Even though the EU could take that decision itself as far as I understand (?), it won't happen without more discussion + broad agreement between EU leaders on what to do 

    This includes Martin. He will be opposed to it IMO, will want to do nothing and only agree if enough of the other governments have finally had it with the UKs nonsense, want the EU to respond more harshly, and press Ireland.

    If it happens, it won't be till after the German election + a new government there, and the sand running out on extensions/grace period again with no movement by UK.





  • Best/most minimalist option is to levy penalties - and if UK refuses to pay, then escalate trade sanctions until UK breaks.



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  • The EU (including Ireland) can afford to play the long game here, BoJo and Co can't.

    We've seen the swift improvement in international relations since Biden took over from Trump and 12 months ago not too many people really believed Biden could actually do it but he did.

    Keir Starmer may not be at the level of a Tony Blair but relative to Corbyn he's miles ahead and has a fair chance of winning the next election particularly if BoJo & Co have driven the UK economy into the ground, are having barriers and tariffs applied by the EU due to reneging on the NIP, Biden giving them the cold shoulder for the same reason and even their much coveted membership of the CPTPP will be blocked by NZ's Jacinda Ardern who recently warned that countries aspiring to join must adhere to the rules based order. I wonder what aspiring member she was referring to?

    Come the next UK election unless things have normalised the electorate are going to be fed up of BoJo's empty promises, lies and pure dishonesty along with the constant blaming of the EU for all the woes which are and will increasing flow from the hard Brexit BoJo & Co chose to pursue. Starmer by then should have developed enough rapport with key EU decision makers to be able to sell an alternative based on co-operation with not antagonization of the EU and the EU for it's part will give plenty of indications that it will be open to hitting the reset button if a new govt is elected in the UK.





  • You have not read what I have been saying, as usual. You read what you want to see.

    I crystal clearly said the EU should make it known that sanctions will be applied the day the UK breaks the treaty. I never said anything should be done in advance.

    I take it you will apologise for intentionally misrepresenting my position.





  • That’s not a terribly accurate characterisation of the politics of partition. The civil war wasn’t fought over the border issue, as there were misconceptions on both pro- and anti-treaty sides about what shape partition would take (most assumed NI would end up smaller and more homogeneous, and, very questionably, that this would render it economically unviable.) The civil war was long over by the time the contents of the Boundary Commission report came to light (which was of course repressed, and so the treaty’s provisions regarding partition were never fully implemented).

    Nor can we say that in signing up to the GFA republicans were finally accepting this outcome. The delicately balanced powersharing provisions, commitments on policing reform, concessions on prisoners, and guarantee that London would respect a democratic mandate to withdraw from the island of Ireland enabled republicans to commit to the pursuit of their aim—the end of partition—through constitutional means. I don’t disagree with you that Ireland would ultimately do what it needed to to protect its position in the SM, but you can’t call what came out of the peace process “accepting the outcome” of a British imposed partition.





  • As far as I'm aware there's never been any talk here in the UK of Ireland leaving the single market.Any talk of that has come from EU sources.



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  • Enough of the soapboxing and the snide comments. You've had plenty of warnings about this already. Next time, it'll be a ban.





  • Mod: Posts by rereg and responses removed.





  • RE: OECD predictions - yes that's true, the UK is expected to have it's fastest period of growth since 1941... immediately after having its worst contraction in 300 years. This fastest period of growth will still leave them lagging behind the rest of the G7 into 2025.

    “The United Kingdom could suffer the biggest reduction among G7 countries (a decline of 0.5 percentage point per annum), in part reflecting the additional adverse supply-side effects from 2021 following Brexit.”

    The report also warns that “increased border costs following the exit from the EU single market will continue to weigh on foreign trade”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/31/uk-growth-upgraded-but-oecd-warns-of-deepest-economic-scar-in-g7-brexit-covid-19

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  • Are you joking? We are literally discussing yesterday's tweet from DC where the powers that be in UK intended to do this.





  • The idea of Ireland being forced out of the Single Market (to facilitate Brexit) has always been a ludicrous one - it's not as if Ireland is some tiny and insignificant part of the EU either, it's one of the net contributors.





  • I'd be cautious believing anything that cummings has to say. He's obviously still smarting from his ignominious fall from grace.





  • Yet he continually provides emails and text messages showing this conversations are what occur....


    Everyone know he loves nothing more than the limelight. But the discussions all occur. The Tory government is nothing more than a bunch of empty talking heads.





  • But he kept his records - particularly where the bodies are buried. I assume he still has plenty of embarrassments left for Johnson and his chums.

    Maybe the UK Gov would not be so concerned about controlling their borders if Eton had kept better control of their boarders.





  • He's probably telling the truth about Johnson and how dysfunctional the government was / is.

    But he also seems a quite deluded egomaniac. Effectively saying 'Everything would have turned out fine if only people had listened to me and implemented all of the things I wanted'. No government in the world operates like this, basing its entire strategy, vision and forward planning on the ravings of one solitary individual (and not least an unelected government adviser).



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  • Looks like the transportation crisis might get worse in the UK, as drivers consider going on strike ...

    I doubt it will stick, but it shows the level of frustration among the drivers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/24/lorry-drivers-plan-to-strike-over-low-pay-and-poor-working-conditions





  • Threatening sanctions is equally stupid, unlawful and dangerous because, of course, if the UK does violate the Treaty the EU must use the procedures laid down in the Treaty itself for addressing the dispute.

    You seem very keen for the EU to escalate this dispute, raise the temperature, engage in Brexiter-type bluster and threats, etc. Oddly enough, the Vote Leave government is also keen for this, and has been trying for months to provoke it

    I'm wondering why you're aligning yourself with Vote Leave in this way?





  • And much more importantly IMO, given the threats, the Republic is a bulwark of liberal democracy and civil liberties. The EU needs more Irelands and fewer Hungarys.









  • I had meant to post this prior to the boards upgrade. Here it is now...

    Another possible loss to the UK due to Brexit. OpenStreetMap, a UK based organisation is facing several issues mainly due to Brexit including the lack of an agreement between the UK and the EU on database protections...






  • The whole system of election used by the UK for EU Parliament election was based on a list system where voters voted for parties and not individuals, and the party chose the order of election for those candidates. Obviously Farage put himselft top of the list. You could say the he personally was never elected to any political position, since his election was as a result of votes for his party.

    The UK political parties make sure they control elections and not the electorate.



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  • It looks like Johnson et al are determined to continue the fight with the Eu

    UK rejects EU’s Northern Ireland moves, saying Brexit deal must be renegotiated | Brexit | The Guardian

    Assuming the NI protocol will not be fully implemented by UK, what will be the next step for the Commission? Can it begin imposing fines or does it moves to impose tariffs or levies?

    Having lived through a previous hard border on this Island, i imagine it will be disruptive but not a disaster for the average person. Not too sure about the large agribusiness concerns where milk etc. crosses the border many times as it is being processed.



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