Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Why what ?

I don't understand what you are asking me.

That assumes a cooperative UK.

Nate

Kind of worrying if that's the thinking in FG.

They'd do well to remember their mandate is for the good of this country, its people and their future prosperity and wellbeing, not for Northern Ireland, not for preserving a scared cow Good Friday Agreement (which the British govt. now have contempt for, except as a rhetorical prop to sell their policies), not for keeping all nice and "diplomatic" with the big truculent neighbour next door at any cost.

Talk of "diplomatic solutions" and that the UK are "missing the point" etc. is delusional and ignoring reality as the UK is doing this on purpose with full understanding and possible end goal(s) in mind.

Their (UK gov) thinking about all this is very, very old empire that hasn't gotten over its hangups about rights, where its writ should run + the respect it is due from others who are lesser (like us) and should be able to be bullied with impunity, sort of Russian really.

e.g. see this opinion piece, which calls it for what it is. Thankfully some of our EU neighbours may be twigging what is going on here.

I completely agree with you.

Someone was musing earlier about what would happen if the deal was pulled and said the hard border is a "no go" and is trying to say we should leave the SM. I am saying the hard border is more likely than leaving the SM. I'm not advocating for a hard border.

But yes like you I believe it won't get that far.

Nonsense and faux concern as usual

You forgot one thing, Sinn Féin will soon be in power and will not allow any dilution of Irish sovereignty in order to appease the British “friends and colleagues” of FFG

I would say SF would push the EU to ground British planes and be done with it, enforce the protocol from Stormont and go on a tour of the US about highlighting British nationalism/imperialism

We both know Britain will back down, they always do

Can't tell if that's satire or not.

How would Holland and France hurt their economies but having a border around the 6 counties ?

It's already been proven he didn't say what you accuse him of. Practically every word a lie just like every time before

I presume you only read the headline. Not surprising but if you actually read the full article, its not long. You'll see the headline is click bait and he is not quoted I'm the article sating anything remotely resembling the headline.

If the protocol bill passes in to legislation our position in the SM is untenable. It will leave a gaping hole. It's not a question of the EU forcing Ireland out. It will just be the default position. France, Netherlands etc will most likely put up checks immediately between Ireland and themselves.

I see Johnson being wined and dined at the G7 talking about Russia. His own government is in the process of ripping up an international treaty.

The UK tearing up the trade agreement they negotiated is not the check mate you seem to think it is. But you've gone blind from pulling yourself off round the clock to Express headlines. So there's no use debating with you.

Ok, whatever. It will be terrible for the country but at least I'll have the consolation when the "I told you so" moment arrives 😊

Let's see what happens over the next few months.

"Few months" but you told us your I told you so moment was going to come on a Monday last month and back in January and before that periodically for 6 years

It's easy know Kermit has been here when the thread explodes for a few days!

Anyway, the last place that there'll be checks is between Ireland and the continent. That's the EU putting up a barrier in itself to placate the UK. Won't happen. If checks have to go in, then unfortunately they'll be on the border with NI. That though, will be many years away with many tantrums, legal cases, bitching and moaning too

I enjoy their weather contributions. They're thought out and backed up by data. It's a fickle science though so no blame for the outcome being different to the original fore ast.

Difference here is their contributions are pure pony. The sum total of which amounts to the original Brexit war cry of 'They need us more than we need them' crap. Even though its dressed up up to appear different.

The GFA was constructed on the basis that both UK and RoI were members of the EU (Single Market, Customs Union etc) thus enabling the total removal of any form of hard border between RoI and NI.

Brexit (in particular the hard Brexit chosen by BoJo and Frosty etc) removed that cornerstone of the GFA requiring a border to go somewhere.

BoJo and co proposed and the EU agreed for there to be a border in the Irish Sea thus ensuring no need for a border between RoI and NI.

Turns out BoJo and Co were duplicitous and in fact only agreed to the Irish Sea border on the basis that they intended to renege on it as quickly as possible, see Ian Paisley Junior's confirmation of same.

BoJo and Co are now, in true Perfidious Albion style, reneging on the deal they agreed and planning to pass legislation which will effectively remove the Irish Sea border as the impact will mean goods can flow into NI freely without any meaningful scrutiny.

Should this come to pass the RoI will be unable to prevent entry of non-compliant products into its market and thus into the EU.

RoI will then have to choose between implementing a border with NI in order to secure the EU market boundary or allow an open border to continue with NI but accept that the remainder of the EU will have to impose checks on goods being shipped out of RoI into EU in order to prevent the total free flow of dodgy goods from the UK flooding into mainland EU via the open border between NI and RoI.

If the outcome of the UK NIPB legislation is either a hard border between NI and RoI (unlikely) or restricted free movement of goods between RoI and mainland EU that will only be a temporary measure until the EU response ramps up to a point where the UK Govt is forced (or pretends to choose) to re-instate the Irish Sea border and adhere to the agreement it signed up to or there is a change of UK Govt and an amended NIP is negotiated which also sees a return to the Irish Sea border as that is the only solution which preserves the GFA and sees the promoters of Brexit take responsibility for their actions rather than the diplomatic vandalism they are currently pursuing whereby they initiate Brexit and cause havoc but take zero responsibility for the consequences.

How long will it take to set up the infrastructure to initiate the checks from Ireland into the EU? Surely that will be the time that uncertainty is created and not in a hypothetical that we are discussing. Now hypotheticals could turn out to be true but much like OBR reports/predictions they rarely do as actions are taken to avert it from happening.

I mean hypothetically Le Pen could win the French election and a majority to run the country and could take them out of the EU or change their relationship with the EU, but I don't see us starting to prepare for that at the moment based off what could happen.

Le Pen dropped the Frexit nonsense when Brexit showed it to be a sham but she is still anti Euro.

Although much like her buddies in Italy and Hungary she will probably chicken out of any real action on the EU.