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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 24,300 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    How can the EU protect the SM and also have a border on the Celtic Sea. We are the single market so having that border doesn't protect the single market or the EU.

    People forever talking like we are a 3rd country in all of this.

    We are not leaving the single market it's pretty clear. It's only cranks and Irexiters saying any different.

    You know the kind of people saying I hope it doesn't happen but it will happen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,785 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I hope I'm not a crank and I know I'm not an "Irexiter" (a very long way off the latter, polar opposite to ilk of Kermit as regards both my opinion of the EU and Ireland's membership of it).

    It would be an absolute f-cking disaster if the govt. were both cowardly and dumb enough to put NIs welfare over Ireland's place in the EU.

    It's more I do worry that the current crop of Irish politicians (like M. Martin) could indeed be that weak and stupid + short sighted (but perhaps that is an excess of cynicism).



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    No.

    The checks range from HGV-hauled loads to individuals’ car boots, is the point. Which answers your earlier question, about whether national custom authorities of EU member states check EU loads for risk (/compliance/etc.).

    Indeed they do. Not on the scale of EU checks at 3rd country borders/loads, of course, and mostly based on EU-level/cross-country intelligence rather than happenstance/luck of the draw, since they have limited resources.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,271 ✭✭✭fash


    No, EU

    first declares all out trade war on UK;

    is sympathetic to Ireland and will be reasonably flexible but eventually will require Ireland to comply with its commitments to the single market.


    In the theoretical case that the UK could withstand the economic pressure, Ireland will (as it has always done since its independence) ensure it retains its independence from the UK - that means protect the SM & Ireland's place in it at the expense of an open border with NI.

    If Ireland blinked, then the UK wins - " see America & EU - Ireland is ok with this".

    Aside from the far more likely UK climbdown, that is the only way things would progress.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    When push comes to shove, the duty of care of Kildare St. is the Republic and while it's an easy cognitive bias to assume ineptitude in all scenarios - I doubt Varadkar and Martin are that foolish to sacrifice economic prosperity for the North. Especially now, when there are immediate problems to deal with; issues that wouldn't be improved by sudden economic seppuku. The SM/CU is one of the few things ensuring our economic woes are not as bad as they could be - this will be known.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I agree but the Celtic border partt of the equation would be dependsn om ROI decision. Ie if we say no to border with NI the celtic sea will be required.

    I don't think it's a formality that NI border would go up. Anyone who lived through the troubles on this island would not be flippan about it.

    I'd personally lean towards NI border but just barely and only if it's in conjuction with a complete trade strangulation of the UK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,994 ✭✭✭Glaceon


    My concerns are mainly because of the insistence on a hard Brexit, there needs to be a border somewhere. So the big question is where that will be if the UK won't play ball with the deal they have signed?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,065 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    If there's a border, there's a border. Sacrificing Ireland for the Tories' culture war is not something I see the overwhelming majority voting for. The country has a strong spirit of anti-Imperialism frequently manifested in displays of sympathy for oppressed peoples. Johnson is a quintessential Imperialist without the intelligence or capacity for work. No Irish political party outside the fringe extremes would publicly even suggest leaving the EU to pander to the Tory paleosceptics.

    If there's a border, it'll be part of a trade war which will utterly ruin the UK. It's not the sort of escalation the EU will just call the lawyers on, it's full scale economic war and the EU would simply crush the UK. That's before we get to the US. It's a direct act on the single market and the EU itself and it will use every resource it commands to preserve it. Brexit itself was supposed to weaken the EU but it did the opposite.


    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    So you think the random HGV checks are what would be needed on Irish goods entering the SM from Ireland?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Not until and unless the developing situation warranted it.

    And I doubt that there would be *that much* randomness to such checks.

    People constantly underestimate the role of (assuming that they even comprehend the concept of) upstream trade, statistical and documentary analysis including databases correlations, in targeting customs intercepts.

    ’Problem’ loads are known about a long time before they get physically checked.

    Moreover, there’s no reason I can think of, why Irish customs could not performs such ‘away-from-border’ checks on NI (and RoI back therefrom) hauliers in the Republic, long before they get to Dublin or Rosslare or…



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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,300 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    We are staying in the single market leaving is out of the question. It would cripple the country.

    The North isn't the country it was during the troubles and I don't see how a border returns us to it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 514 ✭✭✭FraserburghFreddie


    After numerous posts over a number of years that the UK would be forced to it's knees or hauled over a barrel any minute now its illuminating that there's a definite shift towards accepting the unthinkable that the EU may impose a border in Ireland.

    I think despite much posturing and bluster there will be agreement and the conditions the UK want will be met whilst presented as an EU victory within the EU.

    Regardless of any of that,Johnson and the tories are both finished as now the British public realise what everyone else already knew they are lying charlatans.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    There's no need for such absolutes. Nobody om boards has a say in any decisions we're discussing.

    There's plenty of water to go under the bridge in any case. Checks om the NI border could be light/only for hauliers etc or similar light type checks in rosslare/dublin etc.

    I think a visible, hard NI border affecting everyone will result in terrorism.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,065 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Where is this shift? Can you provide a source please?

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,300 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    So we just bow to the terrorists every time. The ROI has to suffer and take rules from the UK again because the clowns start threatening bombs (which is not definite). The Dail will not risk Irexit over the border.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    What would warrant it?

    What you are suggesting sounds remarkably like the Brits proposal from day 1.

    Without going into detail do you work in international trade?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    No certainly not. As I've said previously I just about favour a land border but I'd hope it could be as light as possible.

    But if the EU go to town on the UK in a trade war then I'm happy to accept as hard as is required because fairs fair. But there's a lot of road to travel yet so I just don't see the point in posters claiming these weird absolutes like they have a part to play I'm proceedings.

    Plus from a Republican perspective I don't want any border with the 6 counties so that clearly basis my thinking somewhat.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The outcome of the Provos stupidity could actually be to undermine the independence of the 26 counties and we get dumped back in to some sort of GFA’d “shared island” dominated by Brits.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We all have a part to play. It’s called democracy. I am fully in favour of a land border rather than any interference in Irelands full and unfettered (there you go) access to and membership of the EU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Well first you habe to be given a vote. Not a guarantee, democracy can be an illusion at times. Amd secondly if we do get a vote then it's still far from an absolute, your vote fies not mean the result.

    So either way speaking in absolutes helps neither the issue nor the discussion. It just comes across as angry man shouting at cloud.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    We have votes. TDs voting us out of the EU in any shape or form will know. You raise an interesting question about absolutes: would a border between Ireland and EU require treaty change and referendum?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Except the Brits never had any such solution working, nor much of any other, hence e.g. the record fine by the Commission over the Himalaya of Chinese tat that they had imported for years with little of any due customs/fiscal diligence.

    Brit goods customs are as dysfunctional as their immigration branch, after years (decades) of subbing customs clearance to agents in Netherlands, Belgium, France (EU harbours for incoming 3rd world goods) and that goes a long way to explain why the UK still does not check much of anything incoming from the EU - or from elsewhere. There’s a reason why the HGV queues happen only on the M20, and why many freight specialist call the current situation a “smuggler’s charter” (for smuggling stuff into the UK).

    Going back to my misspent youth and the very early 90s, I am an “International Trade” graduate (Commerce International, it was in FR). The pointy, hands-on end that familiarises and trains you with incoterms, bills of lading, fret negotiations and insuring, customs forms, etc. in addition to some foreign languages fluency, turning out “ready to work” freight forwarders and junior export execs, rather than the more ‘academic’ sort.

    These days I handle/manage IP, globally. Once in a blue moon with a little interfacing with customs in this or that country, for seizures of infringing goods.

    I knew life before the EU and the SM very well, saw them grow and businesses the length and breadth of the EU adapt with them, and have been enjoying them, personally and professionally, ever since. I know very well what the UK has lost, rest assured.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,472 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    A hard border was always accepted as a possibility. A huge amount of work has been done, and an agreement made, to avoid that, but the reality is an always was that if the UK opted to go with full hard or No deal brexit then a border was inevitable.

    TM deal, and then the NIP were both designed to avoid a border, but were needed because the reality was that some border is required.

    What is clear, is that the UK have been pushing Ireland and the EU as a while, to start to accept that a border is part of the talks. The modus operandi of the UK throughout is to talk about something for so long that it becomes a fact. A16 invoked for example. Reality is not important, only the PR. So the UK want the EU to start to talk about the border as then the UK can claim it was the EU game all along, blah blah, the EU don't care about peace etc.

    Of course there will be an agreement, there already is one, and even the EU accept that the operation of the agreement needs work. Hence the massive adjustments they proposed last October. Im fact, it would appear that the EU went much further than the UK expected and took their wind a bit. So out went triggering A16, as clearly the EU had proposed more than enough, and in came breaking the law.

    Now, internally this bill would appear to solve the problem. UK gets to appear to be taking back control, the evil NIP is sidelined and the EU will just have to deal with it. The reality, of course, is very different. This bill, if it is ever acted on, will only lead to significant problems for not only NI but the UK as a whole.

    Basically it returns the UK to the No deal scenario that they threatened for so long, but ultimately opted out of. Not because they didn't want to, but because despite all the bluster a No Deal is a complete failure and will have huge negative impacts.

    That the UK government are left to cry 'patriotism' as a rally call for the bill, we are basically back to the TM government where anyone opposed to anything regarding Brexit is seen as a traitor. They are right back where they started.

    Throughout all this the EU has maintained a remarkably steady course. A few hickups here and there, but overall they have played this pretty well, and while things are looking dodgy right now they have managed to manoeuvrer the UK into this spot where the Uk are now faced with ditching international law, annoying the US and setting back attempts to sign future trade deals due to a complete lack of trust around the world.

    This bill isn't a sign of strength form the UK, it is the sign of incredible weakness, from a country that has seen itself completely outplayed



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭newport2


    What if Sinn Fein are the next government? What would their position be on imposing a border in Ireland to preserve our place in the SM?



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,472 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,540 ✭✭✭wexfordman2


    And if that fails, cos it will fail if it is done too early?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Which is in the gift on the Tory NI Secretary. And will not be granted.

    Imagine the Brexit victory dance and electoral success to follow from removing the Protocol, imposing a Celtic Sea border on Ireland, proving the EU was bluffing, weakening the EU to further Balkanize it and impose Brit interests on a divided entity, by extension demolishing the demand for Scottish independence and preserving the union.

    There would be a statue to Boris outside the Commons.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,300 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    The checks on the NI border be as light as the UK choose them to be. The more they comply to EU standards the less checks.

    I'm not pretending I have a say so cut that crap. Im also just not making stuff up to suit an Irexit agenda or pretending that the EU can or will cut us from the single market in an unheard of and unprecedented move.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,300 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I bet they would ya. The other option is to let Westminster win and also cripple our economy.

    By the way Ireland and the EU will not ever ever impose a border in Ireland and have made that clear. They even signed a treaty to stop such an occurrence.

    It is the UK government that will impose the border and no one else. Any other talk is victim blaming.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,636 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Even if the torys were to call one, which they wont, theres still several years between it passing and a UI, so there would need to be short term solutions in place



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