Who Watches the Watchmen (Our Chit Chat Thread)

IMHO Unkel that's really bad advice. Please do not get me wrong, this isn't some anti Rolex thing. Pretty much since this forum started and in "real life" when someone asked me as "someone into watches" what to buy as a "good watch", my advice was always along the lines of; avoid vintage, secondhand can get you bargains, look at Rolex Sub/Omega Speedmaster/Mid range Seiko Diver(I'd add a Sinn in here for a left field take)[delete as applicable for budget and taste], Cartier Tank for the ladies. Now some might suggest Tudor, but that would be for many people an "instead of" the Rolex version and leave people unsatisfied. They tend to have a high turnover of owners likely because of that. I'd still say the Speedie(though not the "special editions") for a generally non watch person. They don't seem to stay on actual watch fans wrists for long for some reason. I'd try one on first though.

However if one were looking for the definition of a trend and bubble the madness around Rolex prices would be hard to beat. When it pops is anyone's guess* but it's a certain feature of one when those in it, dealers, investors and invested owners are guaranteed to exclaim it'll never happen, that the market will always remain stable and even go up, even when you point out the reality that ten years ago secondhand Rolex Subs were an ample saving on new and new could be had for discount. Or that they're not actually rare or hard to get, but the market and fashion has inflated the price, yet another sign of a bubble. On Chrono24(watch sales outlet) alone there are nearly five and a half thousand of the things over 90 pages. And that's just Subs on one outlet. And keep an eye over a few months. Bugger all are actually selling. Or people not being able to get/afford a Sub will "settle" for another in the range just to get on the fast moving train. Can't buy a gaff in Dublin in 06? Buy one in Meath and commute. Of course house prices will always rise you moron. You won't lose money anyway.

General trends of bubbles:

Awareness: when the market sees something which garners attention, often in times of economic uncertainty and low interest rates. Check.

Boom: People rush to get on board this train as prices rise, regardless of the value or rarity of the item. Check

Euphoria: People are invested now and horse trading and flippers and dealers keep pushing and making hay. Interest is at its highest. Check.

Stagnation: People are happy that the values are stable, even climbing and some get into debt buying the item, but the actual movement of the item has slowed, or people can't get one, so look to something similar because they need to be on the train. Check.

-This is the time for the sensible to get shot of the item in question, but generally those most invested, sellers and buyers are cocksure of the market, so don't and more often keep stoking the fire. This is NOT the time to be buying and IMHO this is now-

Bust. Confidence changes for all sorts of reasons and it doesn't take much. The most invested try to offload their items, but this is contagious and supply outstrips demand and values fall off a cliff.

Now this part remains to be seen and certainly the timeframe is up for grabs, but given Rolex prices have followed every single other criteria of a bubble/fad it's only a question of when. I can't see Rolexes being sold off for a hundred quid 😁 but I can see the market readjust back to ten years ago as the fashion shifts and "investors" leave. New more expensive than secondhand and discounts available on new from some quarters.

Again this is IMHO but AndyBo is dead right when he said it wouldn't be worth the hassle, to even try to get involved.... If this were say 2013 I'd be right behind you Unkel, but it isn't and that's why I think it very bad advice for a newb watch buyer.

*I have noticed an increase in some US and European based car collectors quietly selling off some of their collections and interest rates are rising. Collectables as investments tend to take a hit when that happens. There's also the fashion element of it too. Damn near everything in the watch world is revolving around Rolex at the moment and it's extremely saturated. Try and find a 'tube watch channel that doesn't feature them. That's another surefire sign of a trend nearing its passing and it doesn't take much for it to shift at that point. Over the years I've seen TAG peak and fall, IWC were huge and then weren't. You couldn't breathe for bumping into Panerai and they're now dead as dodos. In the vintage world where things are actually finite and can be actually rare the market is stagnated, even completely dead in some segments. Prices are high, even crazy but again bugger all is shifting. A recent editorial(AKA sales pitch) on Hodinkee was trying to pimp small gold dress watches as the new vintage trend because they're on thin ice everywhere else and they're one of the few outlets moving pieces, but they're a very rarified market and buyer base.