Who Watches the Watchmen (Our Chit Chat Thread)

cnocbui

"The bracelet is so far ahead of Seiko or Tag."

Is it?

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118418870#Comment_118418870

Without a doubt . I can hear the rattle by just looking at those pics

AndyBoBandy

I know very little about watches. I have a sentimental association to the Rolex Sub-Mariner as my dad had one for many years, and every time I see one, like in the photo above, I'm immediately reminded of my dad. We sailed and he dived, and always had his sub mariner on his wrist. He's long since passed away and if I remember correctly he either somehow lost the Rolex, or his 2nd wife kept it and said nothing - which is fine either way.

I've often toyed with the idea of getting one myself, but then seeing the 'Rolex waiting list' thread here made me realise it wouldn't be worth the hassle, to even try to get involved....

I did a few years ago buy a Tag Heuer Aqua Racer Calibre 5 (which at over €1,200 was for me a lot to pay simply for a wrist watch). I wanted a half decent watch that would hopefully last a lifetime, which I could eventually pass on to my son. However since owning it it's been a bit of a disaster. It was losing a few seconds every day, so I opened it up myself and adjusted the moment to get it down to less than half a second, which was fine (I'm aware I broke the factory seal and it would no longer be fully waterproof), but then about a year later I dinged it off a ceramic door handle on my kitchen door which cracked the glass face, so I sent it over to Tag in the U.K. to be repaired (which meant it also required a full service) to the tune of about £500. About a year or 2 later I was finding it harder and harder to close the crown after winding it up as the threads were simply not biting anymore, and eventually completely gave out and the crown now sits out meaning the watch is no longer sealed. Since then I was gifted a Fitbit which I'd wear daily for simple time telling duties, so had almost forgotten about the Tag, but lately I'm getting the itch to wear it again, particularly when sailing so would need the crown fixed.

It's just that I'm reluctant to pump more money into it in case it goes bad again!! Are Tag's simply bad watches, or did I simply buy a dud?

I haven't received any quotes for a repair but I'm guessing a few hundred euro at the minimum?

micks_address

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118419970#Comment_118419970

I dont know about them being bad watches per se but you're not the first person ive heard that have had issues with Tag... i suppose no matter what the product there will always be some troublesome samples

Lorddrakul

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118419970#Comment_118419970

I'd have to say you had an unfortuante experience.

I have Tag Heuer Formula 1 Professional chrono with a quartz ETA movement.

I had it resealed once since I bought it new in late 2001. It got my through my PADI open water licence and then my advanced open water licence too. It is now a sort of holiday watch, as I know it will stand up to the rigours of beach and pool, while still being comfortable and unobtrusive.

A mate services it (in so much as you can with quartz) and I got a spare movement when I heard they were getting rare. It was my first good watch and has deep emotional connections from watching F1 as a kid in the 80s. It still works as well today as it ever did and a battery lasts about 2-3 years, even with light chrono use. I even used it to time race laps in Mondello (not while riding).

I'm not a Tag fan boy, and get laughed at for having a quartz F1 Pro by real 'officianados', but I like it and it is staying :)

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118420175#Comment_118420175

I'm not a Tag fan boy, and get laughed at for having a quartz F1 Pro by real 'officianados', but I like it and it is staying :)

TAG Heuer tends to get dog's abuse from watch nerds and it's not warranted. They were very popular among "ordinary people" for a time and geeks really don't like that and they weren't "pure" Heuer, because TAG bought them out. Which is bollocks too. They had to be saved because they were fecked. Heuer were for the most part more a style brand than watchmakers anyway but they were very good at styling. I've had a few vintage Heuer in my time and they redifined the word delicate. When TAG took over they very much upped the quality standards within a few years.

Lorddrakul

While not beyond the odd typo myself, it is not in any way confidence inspiring when someone is looking for 6 large for a luxury timepiece, and can't spell the damn thing correctly!

Always liked a nice Baitling, me.

unkel

@AndyBoBandy - I'd forget about that TAG. You know you want the sub, they are incredibly robust. And if you lost it, you'd be covered by your home insurance if you add it as a specified all risk item. The only problem is finding the money to buy one. Forget about buying it new from a Rolex authorized dealer, you will need to buy from a second hand dealer or privately. They are a lot of money, but keep their value well (in fact they have gone up in value by about 10% per year for the last few years), are quickly turned back into cash should you ever need to.

Wibbs

IMHO Unkel that's really bad advice. Please do not get me wrong, this isn't some anti Rolex thing. Pretty much since this forum started and in "real life" when someone asked me as "someone into watches" what to buy as a "good watch", my advice was always along the lines of; avoid vintage, secondhand can get you bargains, look at Rolex Sub/Omega Speedmaster/Mid range Seiko Diver(I'd add a Sinn in here for a left field take)[delete as applicable for budget and taste], Cartier Tank for the ladies. Now some might suggest Tudor, but that would be for many people an "instead of" the Rolex version and leave people unsatisfied. They tend to have a high turnover of owners likely because of that. I'd still say the Speedie(though not the "special editions") for a generally non watch person. They don't seem to stay on actual watch fans wrists for long for some reason. I'd try one on first though.

However if one were looking for the definition of a trend and bubble the madness around Rolex prices would be hard to beat. When it pops is anyone's guess* but it's a certain feature of one when those in it, dealers, investors and invested owners are guaranteed to exclaim it'll never happen, that the market will always remain stable and even go up, even when you point out the reality that ten years ago secondhand Rolex Subs were an ample saving on new and new could be had for discount. Or that they're not actually rare or hard to get, but the market and fashion has inflated the price, yet another sign of a bubble. On Chrono24(watch sales outlet) alone there are nearly five and a half thousand of the things over 90 pages. And that's just Subs on one outlet. And keep an eye over a few months. Bugger all are actually selling. Or people not being able to get/afford a Sub will "settle" for another in the range just to get on the fast moving train. Can't buy a gaff in Dublin in 06? Buy one in Meath and commute. Of course house prices will always rise you moron. You won't lose money anyway.

General trends of bubbles:

Awareness: when the market sees something which garners attention, often in times of economic uncertainty and low interest rates. Check.

Boom: People rush to get on board this train as prices rise, regardless of the value or rarity of the item. Check

Euphoria: People are invested now and horse trading and flippers and dealers keep pushing and making hay. Interest is at its highest. Check.

Stagnation: People are happy that the values are stable, even climbing and some get into debt buying the item, but the actual movement of the item has slowed, or people can't get one, so look to something similar because they need to be on the train. Check.

-This is the time for the sensible to get shot of the item in question, but generally those most invested, sellers and buyers are cocksure of the market, so don't and more often keep stoking the fire. This is NOT the time to be buying and IMHO this is now-

Bust. Confidence changes for all sorts of reasons and it doesn't take much. The most invested try to offload their items, but this is contagious and supply outstrips demand and values fall off a cliff.

Now this part remains to be seen and certainly the timeframe is up for grabs, but given Rolex prices have followed every single other criteria of a bubble/fad it's only a question of when. I can't see Rolexes being sold off for a hundred quid 😁 but I can see the market readjust back to ten years ago as the fashion shifts and "investors" leave. New more expensive than secondhand and discounts available on new from some quarters.

Again this is IMHO but AndyBo is dead right when he said it wouldn't be worth the hassle, to even try to get involved.... If this were say 2013 I'd be right behind you Unkel, but it isn't and that's why I think it very bad advice for a newb watch buyer.

*I have noticed an increase in some US and European based car collectors quietly selling off some of their collections and interest rates are rising. Collectables as investments tend to take a hit when that happens. There's also the fashion element of it too. Damn near everything in the watch world is revolving around Rolex at the moment and it's extremely saturated. Try and find a 'tube watch channel that doesn't feature them. That's another surefire sign of a trend nearing its passing and it doesn't take much for it to shift at that point. Over the years I've seen TAG peak and fall, IWC were huge and then weren't. You couldn't breathe for bumping into Panerai and they're now dead as dodos. In the vintage world where things are actually finite and can be actually rare the market is stagnated, even completely dead in some segments. Prices are high, even crazy but again bugger all is shifting. A recent editorial(AKA sales pitch) on Hodinkee was trying to pimp small gold dress watches as the new vintage trend because they're on thin ice everywhere else and they're one of the few outlets moving pieces, but they're a very rarified market and buyer base.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118419970#Comment_118419970

For about the cost of servicing that TAG you could get this SEIKO titanium divers watch for sailing: https://buyee.jp/item/yahoo/auction/b1028353846?lang=en&rc=yaucb

Accuracy mighn't be up to your standards, though, but corrosion resistance to seawater and robustness - if it's that type of sailing - would be exceptional.

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118421076#Comment_118421076

I know it’s the norm for people to think of their watch as a store of cash but I think that’s a dangerous view for most of us .I assume that most us using this forum are regulars joes that get up every morning and do a days work and those of us that fit in that bracket could find better and safer investments than watches worth thousands.

I think watches are toys for men and should be viewed as such . It’s nice for the man maths to show us we’re in profit but a watch purchase at our watch collection level should be treated as the money is spent and gone cause fire sales when cash is needed is always expensive

893bet

Thinking about a gold one to save the Patek when foddering the cattle.

https://www.omegawatches.com/en-gb/watches/speedmaster/heritage-models/calibre-321/calibre-321-canopus-goldtm/product

CalamariFritti

@Wibbs

Heuer were for the most part more a style brand than watchmakers anyway but they were very good at styling.

They certainly were. I came across this 1970's Heuer Daytona on r/watchexchange the other day and had to calm myself down to not buy one immediately. I mean look at this beauty!

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422712#Comment_118422712

The 321 didn't stay dead for long. Had a look at the "new" steel on steel version...

£12k sterling for a Speedie, that Omega have decided is "Heritage"...

https://www.omegawatches.com/en-gb/watch-omega-speedmaster-calibre-321-chronograph-39-7-mm-31130403001001

Madness!

njburke

I have gifted a brother two watches over the years. A 1968 seikomatic P birth year for his 50th and a Seiko solar 200m diver for hooking him into scuba diving. Guess which one he showers with.

I'm drying it out, and will get serviced asap.

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422737#Comment_118422737

Did you see the price of the gold one.

72k!!!!!

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422806#Comment_118422806

I saw it, I can't actually wrap my head around where they pulled the price from?

I can only imagine they are expecting them to become a Veblen good and are trying to get a bigger cut of the profits they believe are being made on the secondary market?

unkel

@Wibbs - really bad advice my arse. You've been talking about a Rolex price bubble for a few years already, since then the prices have doubled. Pretty much none of the currently popular watch youtubers think there is a bubble

And I wasn't recommending he buy a sub because Rolex are a good investment, I was doing it much more because that is the watch he loves and remembers his late dad by. It is clearly the watch he desires. And it's not exactly like throwing good money after bad by buying an inferior watch that needs a lot of money spent fixing it. And for someone doing financially well enough to buy a brand new €50k car, a €10k watch is probably not an impossibility with some careful planning and saving. And it's likely going to be a watch for life, like his dad had his sub before him. So even if the market crashed, it would matter little.

NIMAN

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422723#Comment_118422723

Often when I am checking out watches, it can get kinda boring as so many of them are so similar.

Doesn't matter if its top brands costing many 000s of Euro, as you'd often see in the forum. They can get samey. But thats the first time I have seen that Heuer pictured, and by god that is one beautiful watch.

What sort of money would you need to part with to own one of them?

Edit : just checked CHrono24, and it looks like about 3k?

njburke

A bit like my dad's Rolex bought in Aden RAF base in 1958. Lost rough shooting in the early 70s near a hedgerow where pheasants could be flushed from cover. It is a chunk of money to wear if you are the sporting type. You're a springbar away from total loss. Insuring it kinda takes from the devil may care statement piece.

CalamariFritti

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118423517#Comment_118423517

Ye thats what the guy on reddit was looking for too. Was gone in no time. Only downside to it its quite a chunk at 15mm height.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Watchexchange/comments/rvvlom/wts_heuer_daytona_circa_1976/

First comment is kinda fitting to some of the discussions here: "A Daytona that's worth the money, whoda thunk it?"

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118423413#Comment_118423413

@Wibbs - really bad advice my arse.

Opinions differ and that's cool too. 😁

You've been talking about a Rolex price bubble for a few years already, since then the prices have doubled.

I've been talking about it for just over three years. I remember it because it struck me and I mentioned it on another forum at the time of a memorable event in my life. The current crazy is about five years old but really started to rev up around two years ago. In 2018 you could walk into an AD in somewhere like London and put your money down. As you say the prices have doubled. Think on that for a moment. That's an insane market leap for brand new items that are not rare and are still being produced and one that's quite simply unsustainable. Whatever about a couple of years ago musing on it Rolex prices and the crazy around them is the very defintion of a bubble trajectory. IMHO one reason it hasn't softened before now is covid. They had to shut down production for a time. This really wound up the bubble blowers even more and there was more idle cash to spend with guys in lockdown and more time to get on forums instagram and the Tube to pick up on the trend.

Pretty much none of the currently popular watch youtubers think there is a bubble

I don't want to sound like a dick here, cos it's not my intention Unk, but jaysus are you actually serious typing that? Good God, of course the "currently popular watch youtubers" don't think there's a bubble. They're either dealers, or flippers, or invested in the things themselves and their very youtube views and presence and any revenues and attention from that are based on not saying it's smoke and mirrors.

OK, take a magic wand and remove Rolex from youtube in the morning. The vast majority of watch youtubers outside of low end/specialist guys like the Justonemorewatch chap would have bugger all content and views would drop off a cliff. The Dutch lad in Belfast would have an apoplexy and fall over. Pretty much the majority of his business model would have vanished. He'd be left with rattling off Patek reference numbers hoping for a miracle. The Bark & Jack guy who seems like a nice kinda chap even came out with the howler "there are too many people invested in it, so it can't fail". That's the very definition of an overinvested person in a bubble. In every single assets bubble in history people said that. But this time it'll be different?

Then again both the Archie nutter in Ozland and Paul Thorpe of all people have been recently expressing doubts. The latter ran a poll on his channel a couple of weeks ago that had forty odd percent saying they'd move away from Rolex in the future.

And I wasn't recommending he buy a sub because Rolex are a good investment, I was doing it much more because that is the watch he loves and remembers his late dad by. It is clearly the watch he desires.

Well I'm sure he'll chip in on this but he did say he's toyed with the idea because of that association but the current crapola has put him off. And frankly I don't blame hime. You also ended by saying: They are a lot of money, but keep their value well (in fact they have gone up in value by about 10% per year for the last few years), are quickly turned back into cash should you ever need to.

And it's not exactly like throwing good money after bad by buying an inferior watch that needs a lot of money spent fixing it. And for someone doing financially well enough to buy a brand new €50k car, a €10k watch is probably not an impossibility with some careful planning and saving.

A mate of mine just bought a brand new X5 for his better three quarters, they run 80 odd grand(I unkindly asked him what did she catch him doing 😁). Now he traded in the previous Beemer, but a fair chunk of change as a lump. Which he didn't put down of course. It wasn't that much extra for the monthly outlay to get the new one. On the other hand I'm quite sure he could gather together ten grand for a watch and with not much difficulty, but it would hardly be prudent at this time and he's a prudent man.

And it's likely going to be a watch for life, like his dad had his sub before him. So even if the market crashed, it would matter little.

That part I do actually agree with Unk, though I still think it a very bad time to buy one.

scwazrh

unkle: And it's likely going to be a watch for life, like his dad had his sub before him. So even if the market crashed, it would matter little.

Wibbs : That part I do actually agree with Unk, though I still think it a very bad time to buy one.

And thats the most important point .If you buy your watch for the right reasons the resale value doesn’t matter .

If the sub reminds the OP of his father then that is the watch to go for. When I was kid my p**ck of an aul lad took great pleasure in telling me I would never be able to afford a Rolex among many other things and now I take great pleasure in knowing I proved him wrong every time I put on a nice watch .

unkel

I totally agree with that stuff about the watch youtubers, but some of them are surprisingly open / honest in their views. The fact that they constantly discuss if there is a bubble or not proves it. Most of them are not talking up the prices. Quite the contrary.

Just hope that someone on here interested in buying a sub 3 years ago when they were €5k didn't hold off because of what you said. They are now €10k. And have just gone up a good chunk this week (because new year). Prices picked from the air, but not a million miles off. I provisionally sold an entry level Rolex sports worth not much more than half of what a sub is worth (that I took as a trade in against my Panerai) a couple of weeks ago but had some logistical problems as buyer is from abroad but he paid me a deposit. Kicking myself now as I could have got at least €300-400 more today.

893bet

**** trying to quote anyone but around the same time as that Thorpe poll @Wibbs mention his buddy David K ran one. His goal was to justify that it’s not a bubble. His question was something like “how long as you collecting luxury watches”. I think like 50 of the people were in the 5 years or less. He then went on to say that this shows it’s not a bubble. As it’s new people and new demand etc.

eh…..?

Surely his poll showed the opposite. Loads of people pilling in and driving up prices. They could pile out as fast. But he is, like a lot of dealers, invested in the market. All them lads have multiples of watches locked in safes at this point. They openly admit it.

I have nothing invested in Rolex but obviously a bubble pop will impact every brand. I don’t think there will be a massive pop. And if there is the value of our watches will be the least of our concerns as most may be battling to hold jobs and houses etc.

Either way I am struggling to identify with many watches or brands these days. Meh.

I value fine finishing over most things. But I also like VFM which is largely gone out of the market.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118422723#Comment_118422723

Oh Heuer were a fantastic watch design house. Set trends more than followed them. In chronos anyway. They blew the doors off pretty much every other brand on the chronograph design front. The aesthetic balance of their dials to cases and bezels was sublime. And they didn't sit on their laurels. They nailed the round chrono and then came out with this for feck's sake. 😁

Now it was about as robust as an egg in a cement mixer, but still...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118423786#Comment_118423786

The thing is Cal five years ago one of those was more like six grand, when there was barely a day went by on Hodinkee without a vintage Heuer and talk of the crazy prices they were fetching. Then again they(and enough of their reader/buyers) think that they're still high. A couple of weeks ago when they were talking about trends in the vintage market one remark was "remember a time when you could get a Heuer Bund for 4000 dollars?". Yeah, I do petal. It's called today(shít I remember when you could get them for 800 quid.. I got mine in '11 for 1000*.). Now dealers and those smoking funny ciggies on ebay will put in prices of between 6 and 10k, however the listings are Buy It Now, and don't sell. When auctions come up, they rarely pass the three and half grand mark. And auctions are rare, save for the ones starting at 5k.

That's another sign of the stagnant vintage market. When it's healthy you have far more offerings and far more auctions and auctions starting low than BIN and bidding is strong. When it starts to stagnate auctions fall off a cliff and the majority are BIN at inflated prices. Those that have them believe they're "worth" X, because they bought at the peak(IMHO most of them), or think they can cash in and the dealers reckon the same. Unfortunately the buyers don't. It's been like that for a couple of years in that segment of the watch market. A crowd like Hodinkee have enough weight and brand buy in with the market so weather it better, but it's not sustainable.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118423590#Comment_118423590

Shoulderless Seiko springbars and NATO straps for the win. 😁

*granted I got lucky. It was still a time of auctions that started low and it was a "civilian" versions, which are much rarer and as it turned out it's a very early one, which the buyer hadn't spotted. They were more like 1800-2000 at the time.

Fitz II

I keep a fairly jaded eye on the watch market, and I have to say I see no signs of softening, most predictions are coming true. Previously ludicrous prices are not solidified and exceeded. I have a feeling that inflation will set todays prices in, and make todays prices seem like the good old times in the 70's when you couldn't give away a daytona.

Fitz's rules for buying watches are

1. Only buy quality.
2. Only buy watches you like.
3. Never buy a watch that only you like.
4. Buy only Classics, if you dont know whats classic learn more, acquire classic taste. Yes this means your collection will not be a unique reflection of your quirky personality.
5. If it doesnt hurt financially then you can play around with tatt or esoterics, but the magic stuff is usually past the point of comfort where residual value might not be important now, but could be if you suddenly need a new kidney.
6. Dont try time the market, its time in the market that counts. Bubbles burst but they also reinflate.
7. Listen to people you respect and who have walked the path, ignore the hurlers on the ditch.

Stage 9........

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118424022#Comment_118424022

And thats the most important point .If you buy your watch for the right reasons the resale value doesn’t matter .

Oh I agree 100% S. I just feel this is a very bad time to buy.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118424041#Comment_118424041

No offence Unk, but you are literally talking like every investor, or person invested in the hype smack dab in the middle of a bubble. The I just hope nobody held off three years ago when they were only 5k, because they would have missed the train! And OHMIGOD they've even gone up this very week! And you're "kicking yourself" because you didn't wait a couple of weeks to get more "value" out of your recent deal? If you think that's even close to sustainable, or indeed rational I may have magic beans somewhere. It's only ever rational, and after the fact, if someone gets out just at the right time, and in the vast majority of cases that's more luck than judgement(though talking heads will always claim judgement). And remember this too, not so long ago you would have got a lot more back out of selling your Pannie than you will today.

I totally agree with that stuff about the watch youtubers, but some of them are surprisingly open / honest in their views. The fact that they constantly discuss if there is a bubble or not proves it. Most of them are not talking up the prices. Quite the contrary.

They constantly discuss it Unk because that's what people tend to do in bubbles since the world got more connected. Look at the Irish property market during the Tiger. Ditto for the dotcom bubble. "Economists" and talking heads and the invested and bystanders were also discussing if it might be a bubble, and then backtracking with all the exact same reasons as to why it wasn't. Not this time. And turning on those who suggested it was. Because they were invested in the bubble they were discussing, or invested in being asked to discuss it. Which is much of it with the youtbubers. Most of whom only got revved up and going in the last five years and really got going in the last two or three. Archie may be a thundering twat, but he's actually been in the game for a lot longer than the vast majority of the Johnny and Jane come latelys.

893bet

The watch game is fucked when Archie is the voice of reason.

Cyclingtourist

My rule is don't do what others say you should do.