Fine Gael Demographic

2ndcoming · 19-10-2021 4:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043146#Comment_118043146

No, because it sounds like lots of things FG claim are their policies when they can get away with it unchallenged like on pamphlets or at their Ard Fheis that don't actually reflect what they have done with 10 years in government.

Brussels Sprout · 19-10-2021 4:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043094#Comment_118043094

I'm not sure how a bunch of PD type talking points are going to help against SF. I'm actually kind of impressed that you managed to come up with an entire wishlist of topics that somehow included "Addressing the ambiguity around socialism/marxism" and entirely ignored housing.

Banging on about these kind of topics and mentioning the IRA every chance they get is exactly the sort of stupidity that I fully expect FF/FG to engage in come the next election. The people wavering about voting for SF do not care about those topics. They really don't. As I saw some young person say on twitter last year "At this stage I don't care if Sinn Fen were responsible for The Black Death as long as they build some houses". The people who really care about those other economically-right and culture war topics are already never going to vote for SF. By constantly bringing them up all FF and FG do is alienate potential voters while gaining nobody new.

Yurt2 · 19-10-2021 4:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043189#Comment_118043189

This is the great sin of FF & FG, and indeed the great legacy post-war parties of all stripes in Europe since the late 80s. They all more or less (even the grand old Social Democratic parties in Germany) bought into Thatcherism and neoliberalism and the marketization of all aspects of life. All is in the domain of the market, they could sit back and turn to pollsters and professional narrative spinners to keep them in power and the role of the state is to clean up the little messes the market left behind and all will be well. It turns out the little spillages that the market-led philosophy leaves behind are actually more like oil slicks with far-reaching social and economic consequences, but the legacy parties are loathe to admit they have got it wrong and can't find it within themselves to turn the ship around. Opposition are derided as 'populist' (even when they're not) whereas they've been daydreaming and have shut off their brains for the best part of three decades.

FF used to be a national movement of great consequence, now they are a social club of auctioneers and teachers on a career break with pretensions of meaning something.

19-10-2021 4:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043225#Comment_118043225

You probably should believe it in that case as they poster stated those are his reasons for voting for FG because that is what he sees them doing for him. I agree with his points in that they are the party that most protects his particular set of circumstances. He has explained why he votes FG, which is useful and one of the main points of the thread.

2ndcoming · 19-10-2021 4:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043253#Comment_118043253

This may seem abstract but you don't promote enterprise by forcing everyone under 40 who might start up a business to spend 50 or 60% of their income renting a property to live in.

19-10-2021 5:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043293#Comment_118043293

There are quite a few grants available mainly through Enterprise Ireland for startup companies which has had increased funding. There are a few income tax refund/reduction schemes. Yes FG are pro enterprise. Have a look around. For the majority of people, who are not entrepreneurs, they are dropping the ball on housing and childcare which as the two biggest expenses a young family typically face in Dublin.

You are totally going off track so at this point I'll wish you well as you are not contributing anything useful to the discussion. You might have better luck finding an argument on twitter.

Yurt2 · 19-10-2021 5:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043293#Comment_118043293

I remember asking my mother (pensioner, over 65, property owner) why she votes Fine Gael. She couldn't really explain why, something nebulous about stability was her best answer. A hell of a lot of people don't live stable lives under FG values and policies so the 'stability' sell works for pensioners or those close to the finish line of retirement but to very few other people. This breaks the brain of FG pollsters and strategists (and they are the party that does policy by focus group above all other on the ticket).

Wanderer78 · 19-10-2021 5:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058213786/fine-gael-demographic

you re not fg's target market at all, they re market is primarily with current asset owners, which is more so older generations, but not entirely, but i am finding it interesting to see some older life long fg voters move away from them. pay close attention to all parties and politicians, and vote accordingly, best of luck to you and your partner

19-10-2021 5:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043333#Comment_118043333

More young people are talking about the difficulties they face and their older family members are hearing this. They might be throwing a vote to SF as their daughter / granddaughter is telling them it might help them afford a house. My mother has been a staunch FF voter because it was that way in the family and a FF councilor did a favor for someone long ago and she remembers that. Basically he made a phone call to see if someone in the family could get onto a FAS course and it got him votes for the next 10 years... which is how it works down the country.

She could be convinced towards SF which would have been unthinkable a couple of years ago as she sees stories on the news almost daily about the housing crisis in Dublin and that FG are not getting it done while throwing a fiver into the pension which is just not enough to guarantee to keep her on side.

Most people have moved on from the troubles who never lived in the north, we do not care about what was done or not done then. FF and FG engaged in a civil war once upon a time. It doesn't come up every election.

I will vote for the party that I think is most likely to build some damn affordable houses. Everything else is just noise to me until that is done.

Larbre34 · 19-10-2021 5:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043137#Comment_118043137

You may believe every word Sir.

Those were not the views of my youth and indeed Labour Youth were my interest in College, but I'm a FG voter now, though not a member in any sense.

Yurt2 · 19-10-2021 5:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043383#Comment_118043383

I have noticed this as well. I think the penny has dropped with a lot of middle-class people when they send their kids to Dublin / Galway for college and see money evaporating in front of their eyes as they try to find accommodation for their kids. Sobers one up pretty quickly.

KaneToad · 19-10-2021 5:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118042784#Comment_118042784

If only we had an example of a SF govt that we could use as an indicator of how SF would perform in a govt scenario. Better still, if this example was geographically close to where we are so that we could draw some parallels.

Oh wait...

19-10-2021 5:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043415#Comment_118043415

apples and oranges

Brussels Sprout · 19-10-2021 5:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043189#Comment_118043189

...but they didn't just leave the market at it. They actively poured petrol on the fire. This is from Charlie McCreevy's wikipedia page:

From 1997 to 2000, McCreevy cut Capital Gains Tax from 40% to 20%, and extended Section 23 Tax allowances to the Upper Shannon Area (against the advice of the Finance Department) in the Finance Acts of 1998 and 1999. These included special tax incentives targeted at the area covered by the pilot Rural Renewal Scheme, which was later criticised by the Heritage Council for being introduced without a "Baseline Audit" to inform the level and scale of development to be supported through the scheme, not identifying priority areas suitable for development, not providing any strategic protection for designated areas including the corridor of the River Shannon nor promoting the use of sustainable design and building materials in any new build or refurbishment project supported by the scheme.[5]

These two measures of cutting Capital Gains Tax and providing tax incentives for property development in thinly populated rural areas have been partly responsible for the explosion in housing and commercial property speculation, which led ultimately to the collapse of the Irish banking system

They actively made everything worse.

2ndcoming · 19-10-2021 5:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043333#Comment_118043333

I think I just met one.

Wanderer78 · 19-10-2021 5:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043404#Comment_118043404

yea i think both ffg are in serious trouble, both are slowly losing their traditional base, and i do think you re largely partially right in regards parents and grandparents starting to realise their off spring are in serious trouble, the next ge is gonna be very interesting, i suspect its gonna be a blood bath for them both

KaneToad · 19-10-2021 5:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043422#Comment_118043422

You're saying SF, who claim to be an all island party, will behave differently in the ROI compared to NI?

Cyclingtourist · 19-10-2021 5:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043142#Comment_118043142

I told you my solution 'build proper homes and more of them' you're the one being sarcastic and personally abusive. I'm finished discussing anything with you.

Yurt2 · 19-10-2021 5:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043464#Comment_118043464

Their record in the North is their record, however, they by in large don't control the tax and spend levers in devolved government up North. That's the serious business of governance and it would be seriously remiss of you not to include that in your assessment. Stormont is for all intents and purposes a giant county council of the UK beholden to decisions from Whitehall.

KaneToad · 19-10-2021 5:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043500#Comment_118043500

They voted to raise pension age in NI to 66 and pledged to reduce it in ROI to 65...

Yurt2 · 19-10-2021 5:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043521#Comment_118043521

Northern Ireland Act 1988: by convention and constrained by legislation, NI was bound to remain in lockstep with the rest of the UK on big-ticket items like pensions, children's allowance etc. The pension @ 66 decision came from Whitehall and there was nothing that anyone in Stormont could do about it.

One should know the nitty-gritty before dropping the big H word.

KaneToad · 19-10-2021 6:29pm

So SF didn't support the legislation to increase the pension age?

Independent.ie

Mary Lou McDonald's party unanimously supported legislation passed by the Northern Assembly in 2012 which means the pension age in the North increases to 66 years this coming October.

Sinn Féin backed the Pension Bill, though it meant the age increase was brought forward by six years from the original date of 2026.

Examiner.ie

Sinn Féin unanimously supported legislation in Stormont which raised the pension age to 66 in 2012, which was implemented last year, however, TD Louise O'Reilly said this no longer the party's position.

Yurt2 · 19-10-2021 6:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043873#Comment_118043873

Know the reality. NI is bound by legislation to remain in lockstep with the rest of the UK on pensions. They could have voted against one supposes, which would have meant Westminster pulling the plug on Stormont and you'd be crowing about that then.

You either don't know or are deliberately trying to misrepresent the realities of devolved government and the legislative and constitutional framework of the UK.

In any case, Fine Gael thread as they say.

Larbre34 · 19-10-2021 6:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043246#Comment_118043246

I'll put it to you this way.

My outwardly moderate, liberal, middle class in-laws, in a certain east coast swing State, voted for Hillary the first time but Trump the second.

Why, says I? Because he's more likely to protect our money, says they.

Thats how a bunch of PD talking points are going to to help against SF.

And I didn't mention Housing, because its irrelevant. Its irrelevant to those who already own it and thats who FG are going after. They will try and terrify anyone who has a mortgage into not voting for SF, because the chances of wealth further increasing and the mortgage burden easing will lessen under SF.

Besides, SFs housing policies will be easily taken down with one question, 'how do you propose to do it without bankrupting the exchequer?'.

And if thats not enough, they can be interrogated on why their local Councillors have frustrated social and part-social housing schemes in some of the tightest supply areas in the Country again and again and again.

Yurt2 · 19-10-2021 6:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043959#Comment_118043959

At least you're honest about using boogeyman fear-mongering politics and trying to get property owners to drop their metaphorical monocles into their metaphorical sherry. We're getting close to the heart of the game FG are running on everybody.

Can you explain why FG bright young thing Emer Higgins objected to more housing units in one constituency than SF (allegedly did) combined across the entire Dublin urban area? Blocky blocky 😜

fash · 19-10-2021 6:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043498#Comment_118043498

That's not very easy though is it? An acquaintance recently had a small extension priced - the lowest tender was 150% of the price that the house was (relatively recently) bought for. That's just 1 of many anecdotes. Material prices are crazy and rising, contractors are beyond capacity, Dublin is one of the most expensive cities in Europe to build and has some of the highest construction wages already and Ireland has a construction industry which is one of the most likely in the world to incur significant cost inflation due to demand - according to Turner & Townsend:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/dublin-third-most-expensive-city-in-europe-for-construction-costs-1.4626876

Plus building regulation standards went up again recently - which are expensive to comply with.

I personally don't see an easy way out of this which doesn't involve "build a time machine, travel back to the 1960's and build lots of high quality apartment blocks which can be readily upgraded".

KaneToad · 19-10-2021 8:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043929#Comment_118043929

They could have voted against the Bill, as the SDLP did. It would not have collapsed Stormont. The difference in funding, as outlined by Sammy Wilson, would have to be taken from the public purse and the block grant - if NI were not to follow the UK. The political decision taken was to not try to find the funds elsewhere but to raise the pension age instead.

This is the exact opposite of what SF argued in Ireland.

Yurt2 · 19-10-2021 8:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118044524#Comment_118044524

False.

Facts and not conjecture for you:

All social security powers are devolved formally to Northern Ireland, aside from Child Benefit, Guardian’s Allowance, Working Tax Credit, and Child Tax Credit, which are ‘excepted’ powers. By long-standing convention, however – and more recently, under section 87 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 – Northern Ireland maintains ‘parity’ with social security, child maintenance, and pensions systems in Great Britain. In practice, this is an important limitation on the ability of the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly to diverge from UK Government policy.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9048/

Yurt2 · 19-10-2021 8:53pm

And further, if you're advocating that SF vote against Westminster legislative fait accompli on pensions and find the money elsewhere, how exactly is the NI Executive supposed to do so without tax and spend powers which are explicitly the preserve of the Chancellor in London? In your own time...

Or more pertinently, the topic of the thread: Fine Gael's existential conundrum

Cyclingtourist · 19-10-2021 9:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043994#Comment_118043994

I never said it would be easy but the simple fact is if more homes aren't built all the tinkering with the market won't give people places to live.

19-10-2021 9:03pm

Northern Ireland run a deficit of about £10bn a year. It is a financial black hole run from Westminister. Stormont is basically there to keep the dialogue going and the bullets in the bunkers and has nothing to do with fiscal policy. Whenever they have a falling out and throw a tantrum in Stormont the show goes on regardless because someone else is in control.

Comparing that to running the republic of Ireland is pointless.

Getting back to the ROI...

20-10-2021 2:50am

Went through the Sinn Fein alternative 2021 budget. They are looking to build 4,000 affordable homes to buy. The majority of other housing they want to build is social housing.

We won't qualify for social housing or will be so far down the list it is effectively the same as our income is above average but not enough to buy anything other than a shoebox or a 3 bed semi detached in Dublin that has a list of issues that would keep you awake at night when looking at what is left after the cost of living and childcare.

They also want to remove the help to buy scheme for some unexplained reason.

Sinn Fein also said in this alternative budget they would reduce the cost of childcare by two thirds but didn't explain how this trick could be pulled off.

Very frustrating.

FG looking after those at the top and SF looking after those at the bottom. FF happy to let people bury themselves with a massive 30 year mortgage if they manage to escape the rent trap.

Being in the middle right now leaves you working just to pay the bills and give someone a 5% yield on their investment property.

No party is speaking for my (very large) cohort of voters.

At this stage I wouldn't be voting for Sinn Fein in the expectation that they will fix the issue but rather to send a message to FFG that broken promises will not be tolerated this time.

Yurt2 · 20-10-2021 11:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118046000#Comment_118046000

On help to buy

The following effect was observed in the UK with a similar scheme and has been observed over the course of the HTB here: Developers aren't thick, it just helps them increase the sticker price on new developments and in practice, the value of the tax rebate almost fully goes to the developer increasing the mortgage burden for the FTB and raising the price of new housing across the economy. It's a direct transfer to the developer at the expense of the exchequer and the buyer.

rolling boh · 20-10-2021 11:49am

I think the traditional FG voter always thought they were that bit better class than the rest . Always banged on about the law and order party and their main concern about housing was whether any new building would affect the value of their own property if any were proposed near them .

Brussels Sprout · 20-10-2021 12:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043959#Comment_118043959

I'm not sure that your data point of a couple of voters in a different country with a radically different political system and number of parties is too relevant to the Irish context. Having said that there is definitely a wing in FG (and especially YFG) who'd like nothing more then to try and run a US-Republican party style playbook. As I said previously I don't think this would do anything except preach to the converted whilst alienating more moderate potential voters.

Let me ask you this. Why do you personally think that Sinn Fein saw such an unexpected surge in last year's election?

20-10-2021 12:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118047015#Comment_118047015

Any schemes from other countries that you know of that worked well and could be implemented here?

Murph85 · 20-10-2021 1:17pm

Op you are in the same situation as myself and most of my mates. Mid 30's... Ex FG voters... They have lost all of our votes and my parents. An insane rate of marginal tax, paid over a pittance. Rip off housing. No reform of anything. What does this rip off marginal rate get? free luxury housing, medical card , Xmas bonus for those that never work. While many of their current or ex voters are becoming worse off by the year...

The spend to tax cut ratio this budget was around 8 or 9:1! Every year with inflation that they didnt link the rates or tax to earnings, as in the past several budgets, people are worse off!

They barely touch the totally insignificant LPT as its a political hot potato. Raising it a few euro a year causes political hell! But you? the young? no problem with property prices increasing several hundred euro A DAY! For years on end and then you pay the extra interest on it!

FG are left wing, with the exception of rip off property prices and being friends of big business! They only needed to delude the peasants into thinking they were on our side, to win seats and power. There is no difference between FF and FG. If FG were in FF position during the first boom, it would have been the same outcome. FG were calling for INCREASED spending during that period!

We really need a new party, even one, that won 15-20 seats would be a game changer in Irish politics! it could leverage serious power!

Not voting is probably the best option to force change. Short of starting a new party yourself, many of us crave one, but non of us will do it! FG losing influence and seats, will either force them to listen to those that have and or do vote for them OR someone might grab this open goal by the balls and actually start a new party...

They have two main voters, the hardworking they lied to about change and rewarding work. Those screwed by the housing "crisis" that they love... Then older "my father voter FG" type. The young should be moving away from them in droves... Their biggest concern is how much to raise the state pension every year...

Force the change!

Murph85 · 20-10-2021 1:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118042936#Comment_118042936

Let them remove the LPT! The rate it is charged at, is a total farce. Its not even worth collecting! Many people pay nothing or a hundred euro a year! It is those already paying far more than their fair share, that are the only ones contributing anything worth talking about to LPT. SF also want to abolish any penalty for not paying motor tax by the year, I totally agree with this too...

I disagree with a lot of what SF do. But voting FG again isnt an option. A new party that is nothing like any of the current disgraceful offerings, is what is needed...

Murph85 · 20-10-2021 1:37pm

Op I would highly recommend watching this! It gives you serious insight into housing and financial systems and why the system has become the way it is... The poster wanderer78 refers to much of it , in his posts...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL3n59wC8kk

Loafing Oaf · 20-10-2021 1:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118047562#Comment_118047562

Not voting is probably the best option to force change

How does this work? Even if there was a sizeable number of you doing it it would be very difficult to pick out among other GE trends. FG might just conclude "Oh our vote's moved to left parties so we've got to shift left to recapture it.

Brussels Sprout · 20-10-2021 2:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118047760#Comment_118047760

The only effect that not voting has is that it gives a marginally louder voice to those that do vote. Beyond that nobody will care or notice.

20-10-2021 3:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118048150#Comment_118048150

Yeah, not voting is a terrible strategy for getting noticed. The general election turnout dropped 7% between 2011 and 2020, the equivalent of approximately 250,000 voters and no-one batted an eyelid. You're talking about a group 1.7 times the size of the entire Green party vote, and it got virtually no coverage.

If you really insist on a protest vote, at the very least spoil your vote. There were ~17,000 spoiled votes in 2020 - if there was an organised movement to protest via spoiling, and it produced 250,000 spoiled votes, that would be newsworthy, and much more difficult to write off as apathy or a statistical anomaly.

Although if you were organised enough to persuade 250,000 people to spoil their vote, setting up your own political party seems like a more worthwhile endeavour...

20-10-2021 4:05pm

If we spoil our votes the FG and FF TDs won't give a damn so long as they are re-elected and keep getting the €100k + allowances.

There will be a shift to SF to send a message. Fix the problem or you will be voted out. Promises are no longer going to cut it.

Murph85 · 20-10-2021 5:31pm

Good points. We are all sick of the same BS, the same crap politicians and lies. So you vote SF etc, because they then lose seats and power. Some people just wont vote SF, which is totally fine. You are correct in what you say about spoiling the votes. It would be far more effective..

The housing situation has to and is going to get far worse, traffic and congestion will. Cost of living will. I reckon the next election, it will be a SF / FF coalition. FG will be happy to step off the merry go round, for one round at least, that is my prediction. The soldiers of destiny might try to pin the blame on lack of change at FG door. Then say they are going in with SF to deliver change, the thing is, they will then have to do this to a reasonable extent. I think they decades of waffle is coming home to roost, its not flying any more. Waffle and nothing else, wont cut it with most of us any more...

Such a total pity that Lucinda Creighton, with far more balls than the rest of those jokes in the dail combined. Had the party sank, largely by taking a side on a SINGLE , divisive issue, that was likely going to be passed regardless, such an absolute waste...

Murph85 · 20-10-2021 5:38pm

without starting a new party, does anyone think a "no representation, no vote" movement, would work best. Someone then might step forward and make the move to start a new party, that a significant amount of us would vote for?

awec · 20-10-2021 6:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118047015#Comment_118047015

Increasing the price of houses was the whole point of help to buy. It is literally what it was designed to do. This "developers aren't thick" thing makes it sound like they figured out how to game the system, and this "direct transfer to the developer at the expense of the exchequer and the buyer" stuff makes me think your understanding of the purpose of the scheme is fairly loose.

"The value of the tax rebate goes fully to the developer". Yes. Obviously. It was the whole point.

The return on the scheme at this stage is certainly up for debate, but it is an irrefutable fact that the scheme has seen many, many people buy houses years earlier than they would have been able to without the scheme being in place.

The Shinners had a problem with it from day 1 because it also helped the middle classes buy houses rather than just their voter base.

Larbre34 · 20-10-2021 6:14pm

Politics is the art of compromise lads, its about keeping as many as possible just about happy enough and not too unhappy. Thats why all these descriptions of politicians always follow the same mantra of lies and lack of principle and cronyism etc. Its a badge of the coalition based system that we have.

The alternative, by the way, doesn't really bear thinking about either.

So, rather than complaining about those that do get elected, why not pick up a nomination paper and try to do better?

20-10-2021 7:11pm

I don't want to be a politician. I want an affordable house.

Murph85 · 20-10-2021 8:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118049470#Comment_118049470

The art of compromise? Many of us dont have a party even vaguely representing what we want! That's BEFORE the compromise bit!

20-10-2021 11:40pm

What do you make of the Housing For All & The Land Development Agency?

podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5zb3VuZGNsb3VkLmNvbS91c2Vycy9zb3VuZGNsb3VkOnVzZXJzOjc1NjA2MTYzL3NvdW5kcy5yc3M/episode/dGFnOnNvdW5kY2xvdWQsMjAxMDp0cmFja3MvMTE0NDkyOTU4Mw?ep=14

Fine Gael Demographic

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