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  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]

    In more rural areas additional houses may mean additional services and a greater desire to live in that area which would increase the price of the original house or the value of a site owned by the original house owner.

    Parents see their children not being able to buy a home despite working full time so will vote in their interest therefore may switch to SF.

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    I'd vote SocDem if they ran a candidate, in my area.

    As it is I cant vote Labour as have no faith that they wouldn't about face and join FFG again. Leave me with very little choice.

    IMHO I think SF supporters are, at heart, still a bunch of cop killing scumbag cheerleaders. That Martin Ferris gave them a hero's welcome, their letter got a standing ovation at SF conference, and that SF lobbied for their early release... More than a little sour taste in my mouth but I've zero faith in the incompetent incumbents.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭Good loser

    Can you not see that SF will correspond to FF Mark 2?

    There are at least two fundamental problems with 'solving' the housing problem that SF can do nothing about

    • shortage of labour in the construction industry
    • the high percentage of current expenditure allocated to social welfare.

  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]

    Unfortunate and true and yet the swing vote will blame FG for the current situation and vote for SF as a vote against FG if they don't get some affordable houses built before the next election. Shortage of labor in the construction industry is a result of poor policies up to this point. They didn't emigrant en masse over the last couple of years.

    There seems to be a few people here making very sound arguments on why people should not vote for SF and the rebuttal is that their young base are struggling despite doing everything right and are switching over to the other crowd out of frustration as we can't see anything tangible being done.

    Being fiscally conservative over the next few years when there is a housing crisis won't solve it.

    Housing is the whole ball game for the next election.

    The swing vote are not voting for SF generally, they are voting against FG/FF and that is the crucial thing that people need to understand as it shapes the whole conversation so challenging the views of SF don't amount to much in this context, it only matters what FG/FF manage to get done over the next couple of years.

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    I firmly believe that, should SF become government lead in a stable majority, FFG will merge, with FF being taken by FG

    After this SF will be set as a primary party in government or opposition

    The Labour leadership of 2012 deserve all the derision they get. They had it made

    Leader of opposition

    Early FFG coalition

    Numbers rising

    Popular leader

    But no, they fell for the same old trap the large parties always pulled. See the threat a growing party poses in an election or two. Insinuate that they're "afraid to be in government", goad them into being a Junior Partner, and watch as their core feels betrayed by every capitulation.

    It's their fall which completely splintered the left, allowing SF to rebrand as the party of the working class

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on

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  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]

    Nothing so dramatic will happen as that. They have had a great run of passing the baton over and back while really only seeing minor changes in the number of seats each wins.

    Not going to ruin a good thing because SF get to drive for 5 years.

  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,802 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl

    FG would not have debated going into coalition with FF for even a fraction of a second in 2011. There was never the slightest chance. It could potentially have been a minority or FG+ind govt though.

    There is also very little chance of them merging any time in the near future and why would they? There is no logical reason to for either of them. SF are not going to be in a govt with a stable majority unless they go into coalition with FF anyway.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,618 ✭✭✭PommieBast

    Back in 2020 time I seriously thought there would be some sort of FF+SF tie-up, and that FF would give MM the chop in order to enable it.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85

    It's going to get so much worse for ffg. That I can see sf not even needing either ff or fg to form a government...

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85

    Ironically if ff want a serious bounce, get rid of mm and get someone in, who will actually do, what varadkar and fg said they would do...

    And actually do it !

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]

    I think it would have pushed it far faster than we got and 2016 would have seen it.

    I could easily see them being as stable as the current government. Held together by pure dread, at this point

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,721 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout

    Zero chance of FF & FG merging in the near future. Both parties are full of members who see themselves as radically different from each other and those are the people that would be responsible for any merger. Maybe in 30 years or so. You'll see a Labour & Soc Dems merger before you'll see a FF/FG merger and Labour and the Soc Dems won't be merging anytime soon.

    The whole "If only Labour had stayed out" is results-orientated thinking of the highest order. It's easy to look back in hindsight after their near annihilation in 2016 but decisions don't work like that and any analysis of their decision on that basis is flawed. You have to go back to the aftermath of the 2011 general election when the decision to enter government was made. There literally was no alternative. FF were basically political lepers and that's before you even consider the political history between themselves and FG. There was literally zero chance of a coalition happening then. On the other hand, Labour and FG had formed a reasonably successful coalition (along with the Democratic Left) in the mid '90s. Labour had campaigned on the basis that they would go into government and had just had their most successful ever election.

    Now you can absolutely make the argument that Labour made a load of mistakes once in power (and they did) but the argument that they made a blunder in going into coalition in the first place is not a credible one.

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh

    Labour would be probably better off in opposition in 2011. They made promises in that election that no party could keep and frankly if people voted for that they were very naive. In opposition they could continue to pretend they would do things differently but sooner or later they would be found out. FF and FG coalition was not on the cards in 2011 anyway so it's a bit pointless. Labour knew they will be in government after election and they tried to win votes promising way to much.

    Anyway a bit of realignment won't harm Irish politics but SF are creating high expectations among people that everything will be different this time. It won't and a lot of people will be disappointed. Plus they have some proper lightweights, I can't imagine worse candidate to replace Pascal than Pearse Doherty.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,643 ✭✭✭An Claidheamh

    I think MM had dug himself into a corner saying he would not go in with SF, for which he was cheerleaded by a certain Eoghan Harris/Barbara J Pym - say what ever happened to him/her…?

  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]

    Sinn Fein on paper are a poor replacement. I think most reasonable people will agree with that. FG haven't delivered on their promises to the young middle/working class so how can we be expected to vote them back in? Even if SF don't fix the problem we at least make the statement that letting us down so badly will result in being voted out. I am hoping that FG/FF react in time.

  • Registered Users Posts: 27,313 ✭✭✭✭blanch152

    You want repossessions to be easier, yet you claim you are going to vote for SF who have repeatedly asked that all repossessions be stopped. Does not add up.

    Labour or the Social Democrats would be more appropriate. You can be guaranteed that SF will do nothing for you.

  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]

    If the swing vote I'm referring to (educated/trade working full time and priced out of Dublin) were to go to Labour / Soc Dems what impact would that have on the future composition of the government?

  • Registered Users Posts: 27,313 ✭✭✭✭blanch152

    In my mind, the biggest lesson from the last election is that a vote for Sinn Fein is a wasted vote if you actually want to change things. Sure, if you want to let off steam and roar and shout with the best of them, a vote for Sinn Fein will give you what you want.

    However, after the election, nobody wanted to touch Sinn Fein with a bargepole other than PBP, and even they ended up split over it. Labour, SDs, Greens, Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Independents etc. all ran away from discussion with Sinn Fein, probably because of the old adage of lying down with dogs.

    My advice therefore is to vote for whichever of those other parties is closest to your views so that they end up with the strongest possible hand in government. Hence I expect to be voting Green again.

  • Registered Users Posts: 24,952 ✭✭✭✭Strumms

    I’d rather vote for a party of law abiding individuals then supporters of criminals and individuals with a dubious grasp of democracy... SF get in you would see a lot more criminality but closer to the seat of power in addition to communities...

    their support base will only feel enabled by them in government therefore our communities will be less safe..

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭Murph85

    good article on our outrageous marginal rate of tax here... too busy using the money for free 4eva homes, black hole hse and god knows what other crap. Certainly not delivering on their tax decrease to spend ratio...

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  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]

    Which party is most likely to get some affordable houses built?

    I'm a single issue voter at this stage.

    I'll focus on health, climate, education, crime, pensions, ect once I have that sorted.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭Good loser

    That's not a very realistic stance to take. The timelines involved are too long. Land, housing, building are all long term projects.

    Remember if SF get in - especially as a lead partner - they will take quite a while to adjust to the realities of power and compromise.

    Their policies re current expenditure are unconvincing, to me.

    Why not consider moving out of the city. Or save more intensively.

  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]

    I can't do much more than what I'm doing. Taking on a large mortgage now for a house I would need to upsize in a few years would really hinder me.

    I know a lot of people move out of the city (meaning 20km of city center) but with my role I can't work from the spare room regularly and the commute each day from a place like Naas would be a killer. I have previously done a 90 minute commute each way and during the busier parts of the year for me this would be a very tough burden to add on.

    I cant vote for the parties whose policies placed me and many more like me in this situation so I'm looking for the alternative as I can't stomach one more promise from FG that won't materialise.

  • Registered Users Posts: 16,118 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf

    The realpolitik of the situation is if the next government is not formed by another deal of some sort between FF and FG it will almost certainly be led by SF, with Eoin O'Broin almost certainly given the housing ministry. So in practice a vote for anyone other than FF/FG (and in reality anyone other than FG) is a vote to give SF control of housing policy. So if you think SF housing policy is even slightly better than the current government's I'd say they're your only option.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭Good loser

    All that needs to be weighed up then is the credibility of SF and their policies. Unless their overall policies are sound they will not be able to deliver on the housing front. Given their commitments on social welfare I don't think their figures add up. Plus it is hard to see the business ever being enthusiastic about them.

    A party that is against property tax (that will go) water charges and carbon tax is not credible.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,721 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout

    You do know that parties change stances between elections right? Specifically, just because FF ruled out SF in the last election doesn't mean that the will for the next election. In fact I'd be surprised if they did (especially with MM gone as leader).

    My money on the government after the next election would be on SF-FF. I'm sure SF would prefer to go in with a bunch of left-wing parties but I cannot see the numbers being there for that especially when a lot of SF's gains will be made at the expense of those very parties.

  • Registered Users Posts: 27,313 ✭✭✭✭blanch152

    Yes, that is a possibility, but it would be the end of FF. Then again, maybe any other action by FF only delays the inevitable.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,721 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout

    Why do you think it would the end of FF? After all they are "The Republican Party" and quite a lot of their TDs were open to the idea after the last election. FF are possibly the most ideologically fluid party in the Dail. They don't really stand for anything so it's not like there would be too many policy red-lines for them.

  • Posts: 61 ✭✭ [Deleted User]

    Honestly from an entirely selfish perspective I don't need them to balance the budget. If they go to the capital markets and throw major money at the housing issue which results in some cuts to other areas in the following years then I'm good with that. I believe that the labour will show up from other countries and many of them will be Irish when the money starts flowing. I'm concerned that they will focus too much on social housing and not on affordable housing but beyond that I'm willing to risk it to try to get a change. Even if they focus on social housing it will affect yields on rental properties so they will come to the market as more landlords leave. Ultimately we all vote in our own interests and right now it is no longer FG for me so I need them out, not pandering to a minority party to form a majority against SF.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭Good loser

    If you expect the political world to deliver a fix to your specific problem you could be waiting a very, very long time. Especially if you are expecting it from a new party in power. Next election 2025, 4 months to form a Govt, compromises on election 'commitments', new Minister (if FF/SF FF will be delighted to give E O Broin the job), then Govt tenders 1/2 years, building 1/2 years and then the competition for the affordable houses.

    Far, far better to look to your own resources and resourcefulness to get what you want. I saw a fine (enough) semi in Wilton, Cork priced at €275,000. A slightly better house in Clontarf cost €575k.

This discussion has been closed.