Fine Gael Demographic

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092657#Comment_118092657

FF and FG need to realise a proper coalition is about compromise. The people are saying in GE's that they want a bit of both, i.e. what FF or FG are offering and what SF are offering. Coalition is not about one dominant and the other subordinate. That is just how we have been conditioned to see them. For instance, here is the motion in front of the SF Ard Fheis tomorrow, which will probably be spun as a nefarious undermning of the state, but is there really anything to fear in this? Why would any democrat not want this?

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092689#Comment_118092689

Parties can only compromise within certain parameters if they wish to remain credible.

I would be pretty confident that there is no voter saying they want a bit of SF and a bit of FG. Who would vote in such a manner? It wouldn't make sense. The two parties are as close to opposites as you will get in Ireland.

Danno

I think SocDems are missing out on a trick here and should be vying to make a coalition party with SF in the next GE. I feel that people are so soo sooo sick to the fcuking teeth of Ryan, Varadkar, Martin and their merry co-horts that they'd vote in anything, anything - well, perhaps not RBB and Paul Murphy, but you catch my drift.

SocDems are not a party I'd vote for owing to their social policies, but their economic policies (at least as they laid them out under Roisin Shortall) were very good from a point of keeping costs under control and allowing Ireland to become competitive on price. SF on the other hand want to pump up welfare rates and reward the eternally lazy.

I feel SF tempered by SocDems would be a decent coalition next time out - even though I could never in the past vote for them on their policies in the social and immigration sphere.

The reason I would float my vote over the middle line to the left (holding my nose as I do) would be that the so called "right" of FF and FG have sold their souls to socially liberal policies while they ramp up their globalist economic policies.

I'd hope that under SF we'd see at least some nationalism return at least on an economic front - Irish businesses first.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092721#Comment_118092721

Don't understand.

There is the width of a credit card between FG and FF, a FF/SF coalition is possible/credible but a FG/SF one isn't?

I get that there is a snob/superior attitude in FG, but they had that about FF a wet week ago.

I think you might be over egging it a bit. FG can do a lot of things if they think the prize is worth it. It's politics at the end of the day.

As I said it is all about the margins of the final count.

Ardillaun

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118041915#Comment_118041915

You’re raising what should be a serious matter of concern to FG and FF. Two apples from the same tree, FFG have been in power for generations and have created modern Ireland. As an older person who consistently voted FG when I lived over there, I have been bitterly disappointed by the failure of both parties to manage housing in Dublin, a crisis that has been allowed to fester for three decades. It’s like they’re spectators to what’s happening and the only time they seem to get seriously involved is to humour the nimbys in their constituencies to stop housing going up. Sinn Fein’s appeal to young Dubliners with no particular interest in the North is not mysterious; they talk about the real problems people under 40 face. I was never a fan of theirs but I’ve run out of arguments against them.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092739#Comment_118092739

I'm sure the SDs would be willing to work with SF in a broad left coalition if the numbers were there for that after the next election but I think it's entirely sensible of them not to be getting too close to SF at this stage. Challenge for all the smaller left parties in the coming years is to maintain their own separate identities and not be seen as mere adjuncts to SF, because if voters perceive them that way they'll be giving them at most a lower preference.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092771#Comment_118092771

I understand your viewpoint, but there has got to be a time when the penny has got to drop that there has never been a more golden opportunity for a left wing government to take the wheel.

SF and SocDems and even Labour should be formalising a strategy now to take the next GE. The problem is though as we have continually seen with the left is that they are unwilling to compromise even within their own sphere whereas, FF FG and a merry band of ex-party Indos have been able to do so.

If the numbers got very tight even Aontu could broker the slim margin.

If the aforementioned parties could tone down their social rhetoric and concentrate on the "economy stupid" they'd manage it.

Getting tangled up in useless crap like tranny toilets and the likes will deter the more active cohort of voters from sealing their win.

The reality on the ground is that finally after a decade of decreasing wages and static prices, we've now got weak-to-modest wage increases but tints of hyper-inflation to deal with. SocDems have the ability to speak to this demographic who are most harshly affected (the ones who didn't fook off to Oz when the going got rough in '08).

Murph85

There is talk of after robbing workers. Sorry as an ex fg voter, isnt this why many are turning against fg ? They want our vote, but see us as nothing but walking euro signs, to be bled dry ...

If fg hadnt lied about their income tax decreases and weren't for blowing government spending through the roof, they would currently have a lot more support

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092811#Comment_118092811

What changes in income tax are you proposing, and what party will deliver it?

Income tax in Ireland isn't the worst and a lot of people can avoid paying some with generous pension tax breaks.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092811#Comment_118092811

If fg hadnt lied about their income tax decreases and weren't for blowing government spending through the roof, they would currently have a lot more support

You're clearly absolutely convinced of that but can you not see why FG themselves do not share your analysis? From their perspective voters like you are largely "in the bag" as you have no credible alternatives on the right, and the floating voters they are competing with FF and the soft left parties for overwhelmingly favour spending increases over tax cuts. And lambasting FG on social media for their betrayal of 'the workers' is never going to make them change their mind.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093121#Comment_118093121

Listen, they are going to continue haemorrahimg support. Everyone I know who voted for fg are either done with voting in this country or will vote of put of sheer anger / divilment. people are leaving them (fg) in droves, if they think "well we are the least worst option for workers, we have them in the bag". Well, a huge amount of these workers are being robbed on rent and or housing costs, locked out of the market, you think they will look at it like you suggest ? or the reason I outline, it's not my problem. If you think keeping voting for what you perceive is the least worst option is the best move available to me, I disagree. A new party of even the centre or centre right may emerge from the ashes...

I dont like using the terms right , left etc. I want a government party that runs a proper ship. The comodification of housing to end. Reasonable taxes. Enough of the endless waste...

Murph85

A huge reduction in the seats they win, will focus their mind... the workers keep the lights on in this country, nobody else, they would do well to remember that !

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092689#Comment_118092689

Sinn Fein want to remove the tools the state had to put in place to combat terrorism and organised crime. Whether that is nefarious or not depends on whether you think those things are an issue, I guess.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093329#Comment_118093329

See the use of the 'remove' word there...exactly the type of commentary I was predicting.

I wonder is there back channel signaling going on with FF's putative next leader Jim O'Callaghan, who would be one of that party's chief voices on law and order issues, who might find it difficult to accept outright calls for abolishment of the SCC.

All very interesting.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092721#Comment_118092721

wasnt this exactly what happened in the 2011 election though? Many thought FG would get a majority and voted for Labour, as a balance to FG?

Would FG in theory, be the perfect "balance" to SF in government. Or at least be seen to be that...

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093405#Comment_118093405

'Remove' is entirely accurate in relation to the Special Criminal Court, as that is what they are trying to do. If you have a problem with this, take it up with Sinn Fein, rather than the people pointing out what Sinn Fein is saying.

Luxembourgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093315#Comment_118093315

I think everyone would do well to remember that, political parties, media and voters themselves.

Too often issues that affect a minority are spun as the issue of the day

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093484#Comment_118093484

Review and reform would be a better description. There will, if their proposal is accepted, still be a 'Special Court'.

I disagree with them on this btw and wonder why they are doing it. Hence wondering about back channel signalling. I think personally it should be just gotten rid off with a root and branch reform of the whole system tbh.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091661#Comment_118091661

yes, in the modern world, debt is our money supply, without it, no mon, no fun! in order to increase and maintain economic activities, someone must be taking on debt in some form, this is done by either the private sector, via credit markets, and when governments run a deficit, i.e. exactly what we done when covid hit, as the private sector was unwilling/unable to take on the debt at the time. the previous economic crash has yet again shown us, running our economies primarily on private debt, i.e. credit, has become too dangerous and too unstable, so we now must embrace further public debt, to try reduce these dangers and instabilities, once again, this is done when our governments run a deficit.

currently the ecb is buying up government bonds, creating government bonds is how governments effectively increasing the public money supply, i.e. public debt, this is how we can 'afford' it! rates are currently at record low levels, some are in fact negative, i.e. we re effectively being given money to spend, and we wont have to pay the full amount back over time. central banks are currently in a difficult position, our economies are so vulnerable at the moment, an increase in rates could in fact trigger economic slow downs, possible even recessions, i.e. they may not be actually able to raise rates for the foreseeable, and i suspect if they do, they ll be forced to reduce them again, due to the above, so rock on with the bonds!

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118092752#Comment_118092752

It basically boils down to identity. Thankfully, due to our electoral system, we haven't ended up with the sort of binary "them vs us" scenarios that you see in the USA and England. That's not for lack of trying though on the behalf of the social media warriors in both FG & SF. This divide is especially pronounced in Dublin. In the recent by-election FG got a kicking in their heartland. However, even though that was a left-wing constituency SF didn't benefit at all. Instead the votes went mostly to Labour because even though SF ran a suitable candidate for the area, those voters were never going to identify themselves with her running for that party.

Yes there are economic differences between FG & SF. Let's be honest though, it's not like FG haven't been happy to spray money around in recent times. Likewise I'm sure if it came to it SF would be happy to compromise on their areas. It won't be policy differences that keep them apart (even though that's what they will use as the excuse). No, it will be the other thing. The thing that people feel in their gut but maybe won't be so quick to say out loud.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093605#Comment_118093605

TBH, you could replace 'FG' in that post with 'FF' and it would make the same sense.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091223#Comment_118091223

There's a big difference between throwing a protest vote to SF, knowing they are very unlikely to get into power. And voting SF when there is some actual prospect of then succeeding. Night & day.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093668#Comment_118093668

I'd respectfully disagree. What it comes down to there is the difference between FF & FG. I know it's popular to say that there is no actual difference but there was always a difference going back decades. We don't have a titled upper class in the same sense that they do in the UK. The nearest thing we had is the group that contained the big farmers and landowners, the barristers and judges, the consultants, the bank managers and the higher ranks fo the civil service. That group was the traditional heartland of FG. Meanwhile FF drew their support from the working class, the builders, the publicans, small farmers, bookmakers and other small business owners.

Now obviously those aren't strict classifications and since the Celtic Tiger and the crash it's all been changed massively. At the same time SF have emerge and grown rapidly. The thing is SF haven't been taking support from FG. They have mostly been taking it from FF, especially with the working class vote. The fact that they have been drawing support from the same groupings makes it much easier for them to work together. The same does not go for SF and FG.

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093544#Comment_118093544

The level of misunderstanding here is huge. We can borrow at or near negative rates FOR THE MOMENT. This is not the norm. What happens when we have to pay back normal levels of interest? Who will lend to us when our debt exceeds sustainable levels?

This is your grand plan? An actual magical money tree?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093798#Comment_118093798

as explained, rates may remain low for the foreseeable, as its potentially too dangerous to raise them, as explained..... public debt is far different in many ways than private debt, it is common for public debts to be rolled over indefinitely, sometimes for many decades, even centuries in some cases, until fully serviced, this isnt necessarily true for private debts, it is much harder to do the same with private debts, i.e. indefinite rollovers etc.

what do you mean by normal, what is normal? again, at the moment, the ecb is purchasing government bonds, so effectively the ecb is indirectly lending to us, as it is illegal to lend directly.

yes, we must embrace the so called 'magical money trees' of the public sector, i.e. the states ability to create money, via bond markets, as explained, as we have become over reliant on the private sector magic money trees, i.e. credit markets, which has become too unstable and too dangerous, as a primarily credit fueled economy tends to lead to a credit fueled asset boom such as a credit fueled building boom, graph, once again supplied!

oh and this isnt my grand plan, this comes from respected economic and political commentators, some of which realised the 08 crash was in the post prior to it, largely due to these issues

Ireland Debt.jpg

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093934#Comment_118093934

1. Who will continue to buy our bonds when we stop paying interest on them?
2. Can you please share links to these respected economic commentators suggesting we just print money in this manner?
3. How do we not cause runaway inflation as we effectively print money like Zimbabwe a decade ago?
4. What happens to interest rates as runaway inflation takes hold?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093794#Comment_118093794

FG had around 35-37%(plus or minus 3-4% at various times) of the share of the vote through the period when they represented the big farmers/judicial class etc.

I don't think they have a monopoly there anymore and I could see them fall to 15% or even lower if things went against them.

More and more that lost vote will only be given back on an election to election basis.

Doesn't particularly matter where the votes go, the salient fact is they are 'going'.

One of the significant changes I think is votes like mine, which do not belong to anyone, 'fail to deliver at least some of your core promises, lose the vote'. I can only see that attitude growing as the generations change.

Enda failing to deliver on 2011 promises did more damage to FG than SF TBH. That was another watershed in Irish politics and the body politic has not reverted to vote owning or strict party allegiance.

SF are 'borrowing' votes too on top of their core. They'll have to deliver to hold on to them.

generic_throwaway

SF have just passed a motion approving the use of non-jury trials where required. Credit where credit is due.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118094018#Comment_118094018

stop paying interest on what, how why, why would we stop paying interest, what do you mean?

theres many, do you really want me to do that?

you do realise we ve been running a deficit throughout covid, and yes we are experiencing inflation, but that is primarily linked to serious supply side issues?

its important to understand why countries such as Zimbabwe and Venezuela experienced their inflationary issues, most of their debts were in foreign currencies, i.e. dollars, and both countries were in fact experiencing serious supplied side issues. when mugabe took power in Zimbabwe, he ordered the white farmers off their land, giving it to black citizens, these in turn were unable to keep up with food demands, forcing mugabe to trade with foreign countries, in foreign currencies, in order to meet their food demands....

if inflation truly becomes a problem, governments can simply increase taxes, pull the money back in, i.e. pulling the money out of circulation, we actually do this anyway, when governments run a surplus

most countries have been experiencing little or no inflation, no matter what central banks done in regards rates, for many years now, one reason being, most of us have moved towards primarily credit run economies, i would argue all of our inflation has gone primarily towards asset markets, some may in fact be in a hyper inflationary situation, debatable of course. all this has resulted in many of us, including ireland, to experience low wage inflation but high asset price inflation, these have now decoupled, causing our current property problems...

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118094071#Comment_118094071

I don't think you understand what a bond even is, so it makes it difficult to have this conversation. But if you acknowledge interest must be paid on bonds, there is a limit to how much we can pay - surely you can see this? Therefore there is a limit to the value of bonds we can issue.

Further - bonds need to have buyers. Who is buying all these bonds? Why would they buy them unless we are paying the coupon?

And your solution to runaway inflation: increase taxes? You realise that (in this fairytale scenario) that will crash the economy just as much as reeling in spending would?

I say this with the greatest of respect: you do not understand how financial markets or the economy work. This idea is ludicrous. I suggest you do some more reading on this (from some mainstream sources) and it should help you to see why this could never work.

Oh...and on your point about there not being inflation yet: have you not noticed the rocketing inflation of asset values? Sure, your cornflakes have not inflated much - have you tried to buy a house? Or some Apple stocks for your pension fund?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118094092#Comment_118094092

thank you, but i will strongly disagree, and will stick to my sources, who many are in fact highly respected in their field, many are in fact professors, and again, some were in fact screaming from their respected roof tops, prior to 08, about these matters. also, mainstream economics is called neoclassical economics, this is the primarily field of economic thought, of which our governments are thought and advised, its also important to note, this school of thought has a refusal to accept our reality in manner critical ways, simply realities such as money creation in our financial institutions, i.e. banks, via credit creation, this is still the case. these refusals of understanding are now at a disturbing level, as you can see our economy is now perfectly primed for another credit fueled building boom, we reap what we sow, or more truthfully, your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews do!

thanks again

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118094119#Comment_118094119

You declined to name these 'highly respected' sources for some reason. And you cannot seem to answer even the most basic challenges to your proposal.

Ardillaun

FG would be very ill advised to go into coalition with SF. Why work to protect them from the many difficult and unpopular compromises that government brings? SF can promise what they like at the moment but that happy state ends the day they take power. Anyway, a spell in opposition would do FG no harm - they could dump their leader for a start. Meanwhile, SF and whoever could run a minority government, if necessary with abstentions from the other larger parties on confidence motions to keep the wilder independents from obstructing the business of the Dáil.

Nody

The best possible outcome for FG is to have SF as main party in a government and the reality shock that would bring when their voters get to see what SF actually will implement would be glorious. It would be the biggest boon the other parties could ask for (that is for the parties who are not in the coalition though I'd guess further left wing parties might get a few more seats from the disappointment in next election cycle). The problem of course as already noted is that short of either a drastic change in voting and / or FG/FF remaining relatively large still AND deciding to go into a coalition it's unlikely to happen any time soon (i.e. SF would need to steal votes from one but not the other and then create the coalition).

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118094166#Comment_118094166

i have a long list, i can list them if you like?

please be as specific as you can be in regards what you d like to know? funnily enough, i could say the same about yourself, for example, if we do indeed default to our normal approach to running our economy, which we more than likely will do i.e. a balanced budget, whats the chances of defaulting to a primarily credit run one?

thank you

Ardillaun

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118094061#Comment_118094061

I’d like to see what the SF supporters here think of that. Presumably, some like it and some don’t. It’s one of many compromises they are going to have to make if they want to run the country.

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118094876#Comment_118094876

Yes, I asked for the list twice already.

Also the specific questions are in post #281

As to your question: "if we do indeed default to our normal approach to running our economy...a balanced budget, whats the chances of defaulting to a primarily credit run one?

Governments don't tend to ever pay off their debt, typically allowing it to wax and wane as needed. If by 'a primarily credit run one' you mean your proposal, then I don't see that ever happening for the reasons I have already outlined.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118094061#Comment_118094061

They have forgotten their roots it seems. Short memories. A lot of volunteers spinning in their graves at this news. Surely this has upset a lot of ex provos in the party.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118095350#Comment_118095350

Is it anymore unusual than other party's dropping longstanding stances? Leo and FG dropping objections to SSM and adoption springs to mind. To listen to FG you'd think they came up with the idea.

Not seeing much dissention or defection over this in SF. They had already changed from wanting rid altogether to reforming it.

Good loser

How could anybody seriously vote for a Party that objects in principle to LPT, Water Charges and a Carbon Tax?

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118093544#Comment_118093544

yes, in the modern world, debt is our money supply, without it, no mon, no fun! in order to increase and maintain economic activities, someone must be taking on debt in some form, this is done by either the private sector, via credit markets, and when governments run a deficit, i.e. exactly what we done when covid hit, as the private sector was unwilling/unable to take on the debt at the time. the previous economic crash has yet again shown us, running our economies primarily on private debt, i.e. credit, has become too dangerous and too unstable, so we now must embrace further public debt, to try reduce these dangers and instabilities, once again, this is done when our governments run a deficit.

It takes a very special entitled type of person to vomit out this bile. It is high time that those in the higher echelons of civil servants were made to understand who pays their wages and pensions. This "entitlement" culture is nigh on a harsh end. You wankpots are so far removed from reality.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118094449#Comment_118094449

I think a lot of the FG vote atm is a protest vote against SF so it would be an absolute **** you to a sizable element of their current base.

If anyway serious about winning the next election Leo needs to go, just the personification of nothingness.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118096339#Comment_118096339

Those are red lines for me but there's a huge crowd of people who object to all 3. They will say that their opposition is on principle and then give you one of the following reasons to back that up:

• water: "It's a natural resource and we already pay for cleaning and transporting it through general taxation"
• property: "People's family homes shouldn't be taxed."
• carbon: since this is the latest one there doesn't seem to be a cohesive opposing message to this one yet but take your pick from
  • "This is a tax on the poor",
  • "Why don't you make {insert other sector or country} pay for it instead since they create more emissions",
  • "This is just the latest bad science by the Greens - remember what they said about diesel cars!!"

There's always going to be a willing voter base for a party that tells you that you don't in fact need to pay more tax. If they can do that while also telling you that you can do so without feeling guilty about it then all the better.

Ash.J.Williams

to counter sin fein fffg need to come out publicly and state why they haven’t delivered on housing and why sin fein would not if elected

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118101221#Comment_118101221

Not sure that's ever a constructive line for a government to take; when you're explaining you're losing and all that. Maybe better to go with "Stick with us and we'll get the job done in the long run; don't trust SF's empty promises."

Bsharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118101561#Comment_118101561

I'd make the election about Sinn Fein's plan for a united Ireland within the next few years;

Extra tax to pay for it

Lower social welfare and pensions

Reducing living standards

Hard earned money going to Northern Ireland instead of already struggling cities and regions etc

A lot of people like the idea of a United Ireland but have no desire to pay for it. They'll vote in their own interest first and foremost.

Long finger UI in your own manifesto.

Who are the demographic that voted for SF for the first time in the 2020 election after previously voting FF/FG?

Any studies on this?

Ash.J.Williams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118103418#Comment_118103418

I don’t mind paying for ni

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118105141#Comment_118105141

I'm part of that demographic.

I genuinely believe there is now a sizable demographic who will not do the power swap twostep and who will vote outside it.

For me, and again, I think a lot of others, Enda's cynicism in buying votes in 2011 and 16 is coming back to haunt FG, not helped by their coalescing with FF, which has the potential to destroy them altogether if Martin cannot arrest the fall.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118096339#Comment_118096339

I'd agree about carbon tax. Propery tax, I disagree with here, in ireland it's a farce. A huge skint paying in as good as nothing. The only ones paying anything meaningful , are the ones already being robbed on mod to high incomes. Water charges were balled up and burned out of cowardice from fg mainly... then again, rte and the left wing media were pushing their usual agenda. Only the " rich " I.e those earning more than minimum wage should pay it...

In Ireland, all extra revenue will be squandered. In properly run countries, where the tax burden is far more shared and you get value for money. Those taxes are all no brainers. That isn't the case in this banana republic...