Fine Gael Demographic

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118049263#Comment_118049263

Like some sort of online petition? I'd say you'd need tens of thousands of signatories before anybody took notice.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118049443#Comment_118049443

The criticism of HTB schemes in both the UK and here is that it is 'helping' those who already are in a position to buy, but they are paying more via the demand side inflationary pressure for no good reason. Price caps set by gov become the new target sticker price for developers. In terms of stated purpose as an intervention for housing affordability issues, it does the exact opposite.

I am not alone in this criticism - there are members of the cabinet who are known to share the same opinion. You can call my understanding 'loose' if you wish, but you'd be calling a lot of housing economist experts' assessments 'loose' at the same time.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118051817#Comment_118051817

It is not helping those who are already in a position to buy, again this is a fairly loose understanding of what the scheme does.

They are paying more, again this is the whole point. You pay more over the course of 30 years, in exchange the up front immediate cost is massively reduced. As I said, it puts people in a position to buy years ahead of where they would otherwise be. It gets people out of the rental market years earlier than they otherwise would be.

HTB is one of the very few (maybe the only) cases where middle class families / middle earners actually see some real return on their taxes. The people in the middle pay everything and see nothing for it usually, they are completely forgotten about.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118052490#Comment_118052490

Figures released by the Dep of Finance in 2017, revealed that over two-thirds of those availing of HTB didn't need the scheme to afford the 90% mortgage in the first instance. That's a heavier mortgage burden on first-time buyers via fuelling a demand-side 'solution', and contributes to the inflation of new builds generally. Costs the exchequer and the developers get a bung for no reason.

As a policy response to the stated problem (housing affordability for those most in need and two-thirds availing of it not even needing it), it's a failure.

I'll turn this back on you. The evidence shows you have a loose understanding and you've thrown your anchor down on a political point rather than an economic fact.

Same effect in Britain:

https://www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/help-buy-house-prices-loans-first-time-buyers-savings-a8958056.html

Yurt2

And in case you think this is all a Shinner plot, maybe turn your ear towards what the ESRI have to say on the matter:

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/help-to-buy-scheme-is-pushing-up-house-prices-claims-esri-39634314.html

"the incentive disproportionately would benefit those who already had the means to buy a new home."

...

"It is likely to fuel property price growth. So, it will push up prices,"

Net effect: Those already with the means to buy a home had there not been any rebates end up with a larger mortgage for no good reason via the macro effect, the minority on the margins who do benefit on the front end pay on the back end via a higher mortgage, and other people can suck eggs in the rental hellscape as house prices run away further because of bad policy.

All round fail.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118042048#Comment_118042048

I'd likely be near double your age. There's a very good reason why SF will never get a vote from me and many others in same demographic. We grew up in the 70s & 80s and came home daily to TV News filled with the horrors of bombings and shootings - a cancer on the island of Ireland, it was sickening what went on. SF were and are still the political wing of Republican armed struggle. They haven't gone away, just receded into the background. If you don't believe this, listen into their Ard Fhéis speeches and election triumphalism by the likes of 'Up the Ra' Cullinane. Putting them in power in this Republic is like playing with a keg of high explosives. They have ONE principal objective, a United Ireland at ANY cost and if that means f***ing you and everyone else over on this island, they're up for it. That is the reason they exist as a party.

But this thread is about FG. I've never voted for the civil war parties and likely never will. When you look down the ballot, it's usually a choice between a variety of so called Independents (many of whom are FG/FF pool), Greens and Labour. I tend to pick between genuine Independents, Labour and stop after that. Occasionally I throw the Greens a vote but they don't do themselves any favours when they get in either, driving up the cost of living.

So there's no real choice after FG/FF in terms of government. But the last thing I would do is vote SF.

I'm far from happy about voting for SF. I'm concerned that the don't seem to have a calculator in their offices and seem to forget to budget for many of their promises. That being said my generation have been fed housing promise after promise by FF/FG and haven't delivered and will continue to do so until they get voted out for a term and the only way to make that happen is to vote SF.

There needs to be tremendous pressure placed on FG/FF to act to solve the immediate housing need by anyone who doesn't want SF to be voted in and bring with them a wealth tax and a much smaller limit on tax free pension contributions and a large reduction in the pension standard fund threshold.

If that means that the value of the house you live in drops for a little while this is ok as most people won't sell during this period so its only a paper valuation but many people will actually see the difference in their occupational and PRSA pensions under SF so when you look at it that way many FG voters are better off if the housing crisis is dealt with as quickly as humanly possible.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118052578#Comment_118052578

"Developers get a bung for no reason."

Please, go educate yourself on this scheme and why it was introduced. Your linking of an article showing HTB pushing up house prices suggests you still don't get it.

"HTB doing exactly what it was intended to do, working perfectly as designed" is what that headline could literally say.

I am not arguing FOR HTB here, not even suggesting it needs to stay, just taking issue with your odd view of suggesting a scheme hasn't worked when it has achieved exactly what it set out to achieve.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118052641#Comment_118052641

"It is likely to fuel property price growth. So, it will push up prices,"

Yes, again, this was the whole point of it. You still don't get it. Pushing up house prices was not a side effect of HTB, it was literally what it was designed to do.

People pay it back on the morgage. Yes, again totally by design, you save a lot up front and you pay even more in the long term. No surprises there, exactly as intended. Bring people to market much faster, again exactly as intended. People would have afforded anyway, again this is exactly as intended, the scheme was designed to get people there faster. Nothing surprising here, nothing new here, the scheme absolutely did what it was supposed to do.

HTB was a scheme where the more you put in, the more you got out of it. People who pay lots of tax got lots of benefit, people who pay little tax got less benefit. Again, totally as designed.

It was a scheme, from the very beginning, designed to incentivize developers to build houses by increasing demand which would push up prices and make it more profitable. It absolutely did this, there is absolutely no question about this. Whether it has now run out of traction is another discussion entirely.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118053887#Comment_118053887

🤣

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/noonan-sets-up-50000-probe-into-help-to-buy-scheme-35497717.html

Quote: The Government has insisted that the help-to-buy incentive should increase demand for "affordable, new-build homes from first-time buyers", resulting in an additional supply of such properties."

This is the Orwellian realm we're in. On launch in Jan 2017, Michael Noonan explicitly stated that HTB would help with affordability. If you're making the case he was actually saying "we'll make housing more affordable by making it more expensive", then come out and say it. He didn't, he was making the opposite case, he insisted affordability would result.

The government came out at the time and said this was an affordability measure that would help improve affordability. They were warned they were wrong then, and they've been proven wrong every year since that HTB is worsening the affordability situation.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118053872#Comment_118053872

Awec, are you seriously making the case that HTB was designed and implemented by the government as a means to increase the price of houses? As opposed to them merely being utterly wrong about it improving the affordability of homes?

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118054003#Comment_118054003

Absolutely 100% this is what it always was. The entire scheme was designed to increase demand to increase prices to incentivise more building, while at the same time help buyers get around the deposit requirements which was one of the biggest complaints ("I can afford a mortgage easily, but because I'm paying mad rents I can't save for a deposit").

The problem arose when the supply never actually managed to catch up with the demand.

It had the side effect of improving affordability for individuals in the short term. If you do the math on it you can see how it benefits people, even with the increased prices.

Take a house at 450,000. Imagine HTB doesn't exist. The buyer needs a 45,000 deposit.

Now put HTB in play. House instantly goes to 480,000, since the 30 HTB money is basically money for the developer. Buyer needs a 48,000 deposit. However, they get 30k from the government, so they only need 18k of their own money. This has more than halved the amount they need to save for a deposit. They pay it back in the long term, but up front it gets them into market much, much faster.

This in turn frees up a rental property etc etc.

The HTB was not a terrible scheme, it did what it was intended to do. The government dropped the ball on the social / affordable market, there's many valid criticisms that can be thrown there. HTB is not and never was the be-all-and-end-all solution to housing problems.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118054085#Comment_118054085

I don't mean to be rude, but you're talking to yourself here. The government was on record saying this was a measure to improve affordability. They were wrong. They were told at the time by all and sundry from estate agents to the ECB it would exacerbate affordability and prove inflationary but they ignored the warnings and ploughed ahead anyway.

This conversation has turned into doublespeak on your end.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118054111#Comment_118054111

What do you expert here Yurt? A government statement saying "this scheme is designed to increase prices". You are surely not that naive? It was always for developers. Always.

I've given you the facts, I've even given you some figures. I can lead a horse to water and all that, but it is clear that no matter what is put in front of you you've no interest in any objectivity on this point.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118054116#Comment_118054116

Awec, you've tied yourself in knots on this topic. You've fallen short on facts (very thin on the ground) and figures (back of a matchbox and not making much of a point), flipped flopped and generally made no case for your muddled and ultimately political and non-economic point.

Self-praise is no praise as they say, and I'll refer you back to the ESRI and ECB conclusions on HTB. Policy failure for stated aims.

Edit: And by the way, your calculations utterly ignore the inflationary effect of HTB, which is central to the failure of the policy and is the reason it is roundly criticized by experts from within and without of Ireland. What's the point of even having a discussion if you have the blinkers on about the main inflationary by-product of the policy?

Good loser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118054176#Comment_118054176

I'm with awec on this; I think he has a better handle on the the issue than you do.

When it was introduced and all the journalists/economists/experts/SF etc were making the points you're making I always felt that what awec elaborates above ( very clearly) was the essence of the scheme.

As a result of the scheme more NEW houses were built because prices went up tipping developments into profit for the developers, ratcheting up overall supplies. Remember each of these purchasers could/would be in the market for a second hand home; by going for a new one they were lessening the demand for second hand homes causing lower prices for these.

In the context of this scheme its not counterfactual to say that a dearer home could become MORE affordable to those that qualify. You do not seem to understand this. Every house bought under this scheme added one more house to the net stock of houses in the market.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118055883#Comment_118055883

I've never denied for a second that people benefitted from it. But the evidence from both Ireland and the UK is that those who already were primed to afford a home were taking advantage of it, and that's bad policy. If two out of three people availing of the scheme would already purchase a home, and it drives up the price of the property - it has the opposite effect of the intended remedy. Don't take it up with me, take it up with the ESRI, ECB and others. It's clear as day and I'm not sure why you're arguing black is white.

As for the contention that such a policy generates supply, evidence from the UK reveals that the jury is very much out on that presumption (and it is merely an orthodox presumption).

In core markets like London where the issue is most acute, HTB scheme drove up prices and did nothing for supply. In a peripheral market like Wales, it didn't increase prices (nor did it drive them down naturally) but did increase supply in what if we're being real about it, an economic backwater of the UK.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/having-two-help-to-buy-schemes-at-a-time-of-rapid-inflation-is-madness-1.4702765

So, if we're going down the road of evidence, you don't seem to understand this (see what I did there?). There's no use working off low-resolution economic orthodoxy when we actually have evidence rolling in the door and we can look at that.

Yurt2

And if you want a take it up with a Real Estate and Finance academic from the London School of Economics go ahead. Perhaps he doesn't understand either.

He characterises such HTB schemes as 'demand shocks' (and the UK planning system under the microscope is very similar to Ireland in character) and has the following to say....

"So what can we say about the supply side? In the very short-run, housing supply does of course not respond at all to demand shocks because of planning and construction lags, so prices can be expected to rise in the short-run. The trouble is that in the UK, even in the very long-run, supply is incredibly unresponsive to demand shocks (i.e., the long-run supply curve is very steep). Why? The main culprit is the UK planning system, which is, in an international context, extraordinarily inflexible. Since 1947 there are virtually no fiscal incentives at the local level to permit development. Local planning authorities face most of the costs of development but have very few benefits from it. Moreover, local homeowners – in the UK perhaps best described as BANANAs (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything) – oppose (virtually) any development in their backyards.

As a consequence of all this, Help to Buy will likely have the effect of pushing up house prices (and rents) further with very little positive effect on new construction. Housing will likely become less – not more – affordable for young would-be-owners! The beneficiaries of the scheme are the existing (typically wealthier) homeowners who benefit from the capital gain. However, not all homeowners benefit equally. Young expanding families may not benefit at all since their new larger house will also become more expensive."

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/help-to-buy-help-to-who/

The supposedly right-wing FG were the major party in power when the following happened:

Legislation of divorce.

Same-sex marriage.

Abortion rights

A State apology for unmarried mothers.

Recognizing the rights of travellers to see themselves as a minority in the EU.

Making Irish a working language of the EU.

Coveney being the ultimate Foreign Affairs Minister during the realpolitik involved in Brexit.

FG are one of the last classic Christian/Social Democratic parties in Europe. We should all be very careful of what we wish for.

That is great and they are center right and much closer to the center than the right.

That won't stop the young people voting for their immediate needs and the housing situation is basically the sole focus of this generation who will vote SF.

Not recognising that now when there is time to do something about it is a huge mistake. The warning signs are there for all to see.

Murph85

People talk about sf needing a calculator... maybe they do. But no more than fg that discover magic money trees when needed. No money for anything until the pandemic hits... and then they discover the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Likewise with ff and the first bust. All of them will have to live within the eu soending rules and dont the EU vet our budget now?

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118056238#Comment_118056238

Quite. At this stage voting FF/FG is rewarding failure and proven dishonesty, so whether or not the SF manifesto might be delusional does not even enter the equation. People just want to get rid of the former and have long since stopped caring what will replace them.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118056630#Comment_118056630

And that's how USA ended up with Trump because there's always a worse option who promises unicorn solutions to difficult problems.

Housing, Broadband, Children's Hospital, Irish Water, fudging of tackling teacher unions and HSE administrative waste off the top of my head are reasons enough that they are failures, Leo the Leak (Jesus if ever a leader was a liability), massively public campaigns on welfare fraud (no where near as bad as they fear-mongered) yet tumbleweed on corporate and tax issues which cost the country proper levels of revenue potential.

Wife and I are middle aged postgrads who should be right smack in the middle of their target demographic, yet all I see is incompetence every time they act.

Brussels Sprout

"fudging of tackling teacher unions"

I can tell you right now that no party is going to tackle them. It's a bit like saying that "the total number of cattle in the country needs to be reduced to meet our emissions targets". In private a lot of politicians would agree but you won't get any coming out saying it publicly, for fear of the backlash from a very strong lobbying group. The loudest mouths are the ones that get heard.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118056784#Comment_118056784

I understand that no party will tackle them but FG put themselves forward as financially conservative and with the courage to do what is needed. So by their own metrics it's a failure

PS: I am (very) pro-union but not in their case

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118056662#Comment_118056662

Of course. But that was enabled by the establishment taking the p!ss in selecting Hillary.

I was biting my tongue voting for FG in 2020, in large part because I did not trust SF. I now see the actual (as opposed to threatened) nightmare of a SF government as the only thing that would force FG to sort itself out.

Another vote against FG rather than for SF.

This really is starting to gain serious traction now from what I can see.

If you were to say this to any elected FG official they will direct you to the national development plan but the voters are looking for houses not plans for houses.

I don't think they will understand the full extent of the frustration until it is too late to do something about it.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118056662#Comment_118056662

But it's not sf playing a blinder. Ffg are gifting them the seats based on decades of taking the piss...

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118057041#Comment_118057041

Nail on the head... fg plans ate at a glacial pace, they are totally done. If they think people will wait another decade , and yet more failure. Lol !

If they were in any way serious about housing ( they aren't) planning laws and endless judicial hold ups need to be sorted immediately. I'd potentially ban any new hotel or data centres in Dublin for the foreseeable future .

Frees up construction capacity for housing. Any sites zoned hotel or commercial suitable for housing, change zoning. Possibly compensate land owner for this...

Lower construction costs, simply way too high for most to afford. Allow single aspect, less lifts. Potentially even ditch expensive underground parking etc...

Scrap lpt. If the government have an extra billion or two less, it's a billion or two less spent on waste...

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118058670#Comment_118058670

Exactly. There seems to be this notion that if you're not happy with FG it's because you think that "SF will give you a free house". That's a childishly reductive argument. The reality is that there are a lot of things that FG could have done but choose not for reasons that I can't really understand. The two that spring to mind are:

1. Financial institutions (or vulture funds if you will), most of whom are based in other countries are buying property with little or no restrictions. There are none at all on apartments and a laughable limit of 10 units per new development on houses. In many cases they are competing with and outbidding people here in Ireland only to then turn around and put the properties on the rental market for massive rents. This is insane. New Zealand in reaction to their own property bubble changed the law in 2018 so that only citizens or residents can purchase property in their country. Why can't we do something similar here?
2. The tax on land hoarding in the recent budge is set at 3%. That is laughable at a time where house price increases are way above that. Basically it's still economically viable to hoard land. Empty houses are being let to rot and fall apart in every city in the country because the owners are "speculating on their investments". 3% is basically a wink to the property owners and a subliminal message for them not to worry.

Passing proper legislation in both of these areas would be like pushing an open door and would blunt SF's biggest area of attack. I'm at a loss as to why the government parties don't go for it. The only reason I can think of is that both actions should actually affect the price of houses. The first would take away some of the demand whilst the other would bring more supply into the market (albeit property in need of renovations in most cases). I cannot think of any other reason why.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118047760#Comment_118047760

theyre kinna trying to do that anyway, but its failing

An Claidheamh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043464#Comment_118043464

Considering they are a junior party to the DUP and dictated a kingdom that hates and subjugates them, Yes.

Third story on Irish Times homepage now... No excuse from FG to realise that things are at breaking point with their younger voters...

Rent trap: A generation stuck in a vicious circle (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rent-trap-a-generation-stuck-in-a-vicious-circle-1.4707095 

Murph85

https://m.independent.ie/news/revealed-the-real-winners-and-losers-in-property-tax-shake-up-40976749.html

Lads look at this farce, how convenient that if you are in a house 200k or less, you pay as good as nothing. A value a huge amount of homeowners will give...

Scrap lpt, it's an absolute farce. Hitting those already paying way more than their fair share...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065179#Comment_118065179

Love how you say fair share, when what you rail against is exactly that.

In general (yes general) those in more expensive homes can afford to pay more, which is fair

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118065670#Comment_118065670

Fair ? We have widely differing opinions on what fair is.... 90 euro on a 200k property.... lol !!! It's not even worth collecting...

Sf on highest ever support ...

https://www.newstalk.com/news/record-support-for-sinn-fein-poll-finds-1268690?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=web

if the rolling black outs happen... loooool!

They have taken the lead by doing nothing. Things are so bad for the young middle class that we will take a chance on them.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118067656#Comment_118067656

I read an article linked to earlier. I think it was 18000 cost rentals over the next few years... it's a drop in the ocean. They are totally finished. The fallout is going be glorious and its decades in the making...

Their housing plan is a farce... planning system needs major overhaul. I'd stop all hotel projects in Dublin, not currently under construction. Stop all new data centre projects not under construction. Rezone all commercial sites, to residential, if appropriate for residential. Way higher minimum densities, not just what is most profitable for developers...

Thats just a handful of things that need to be done... they think tinkering around the edges is enough, the situation is going to get worse and worse. I cant decide if they are absolute morons or just that morally corrupt...

I don't know how much more needs to be done to wake up FG and their core support base that they are losing their younger voters and Sinn Fein will tax their wealth and their pension contributions if they don't start getting some houses completed and available for sale. It is every day news now. If they keep sticking to a plan that will start to deliver houses in 3 years from now they are done.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118067710#Comment_118067710

They may be looking to keep their core base happy and let Sinn Fein have a term.

Their core base don't seem to realise this will cost them a lot of money in a wealth tax and pension fund threshold reductions.

A lot of the FG TDs are quite well paid in their original careers, mostly being professional people, so they won't go hungry.

Their core base is over 65 and relatively wealthy. Maybe an article is needed on how a Sinn Fein government would impact on someone in this demographic. Bring it home for them.

Mongfinder General

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118067775#Comment_118067775

Have a term? It’s one thing voting SF in. It’s a completely different thing voting them out. Don’t think for a second that the two ladies leading SF will be running the show. Make no mistake about it, major decisions about how the country is run will be made in West Belfast. And the lads up there will get their message across in no uncertain terms.

Despite taking the reins of a booming economy, they are being handed a bag of shite. Same poxy health service that’s been in place since the inception of the State, massive and growing welfare state, inflation, housing crisis, immigration, ridiculous environmental agenda, shrinking middle class despite growing incomes and then there’s crime.

The two main parties on government may well just let them at it.

Galwayguy35

I've no confidence in SF but I think they will do very well in the next GE because people want to give FF/FG a kicking.

Always give my number 1 to the independant candidate because they are most interested in local issues.

The independent may be the way to go but if the swing vote - middle class 30/40 years olds- vote for independents then it will again be a FF/FG coalition.

We have to do something different as they are not bringing enough affordable houses to the market.

Talking about SF being controlled from West Belfast is falling on deaf ears.

Couldn't give a damn who is the main party in government for the next 5 year term so long as they are the ones who build the most affordable houses. Nothing else matters to me until that bridge is crossed.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118067775#Comment_118067775

SF are (ludicrously) vociferously opposed to the only wealth tax that exists in Ireland at the moment, so I wouldn't be too sure any wealthy retirees have much to worry about.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118070619#Comment_118070619

Not so.

https://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2013/WealthTaxProposalsWeb.pdf

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118070642#Comment_118070642

God forbid SF would try and take two sides of a position at the same time 🙄

There is nothing wrong in what I said - SF are opposed to the only wealth tax in existence in Ireland. They are incredibly fond of income taxes, but that will be less of an issue for those retired obviously. Maybe they actually will bring in another wealth tax, but its hard to know because they lack any consistency in their position, which is a benefit of opposition (and not one unique to them).

Ultimately, I suspect the voting demographic of those who own wealth/property is larger than those who cannot access housing.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118070683#Comment_118070683

Closest we can get to knowing that is the Red C polls and they have Sinn Fein as the most popular party at the moment.

Last time Sinn Fein underestimated their support and ran too few candidates. They could have had 2 TDs in many constituencies where they just ran one candidate.

FG + FF + Greens managed to get 82 from 160 seats (51.25%)

Sinn Fein will get at least two more seats from these 82 seats next time out. It will be a very messy composition next time.

This is the equivalent of screaming at FG and they are just not hearing it.

Talking sh1t about SF is not working, we are voting against FG rather than for SF in the swing vote area.

Podge_irl

Oh, I would be absolutely shocked if they are not the largest party. Who knows what will happen after that.

There is a reason pretty much all parties pay heed to housing problems (to different degrees I will grant you) while simultaneously constantly objecting on a local level. There is very little appetite among particularly the largest voting population to do anything about the issue - or at least a refusal to face the reality of what that means.

Home ownership (who probably don't want to lose value in their homes) is still at 68%.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118070769#Comment_118070769

the deciders could very well be the homeowners that are parents, grandparents, uncles and aunts.........