Fine Gael Demographic

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089608#Comment_118089608

we all need to urgently ditch this idea that books need to be balanced, they dont, period! by doing so, we become largely reliant on the private sector money supply, i.e. the credit supply, this has become too unstable and simply too dangerous, as it tends to lead to credit fueled asset bubbles, and subsequent busts, i.e. 08. our governments going forward need to embrace this thinking, our we re probably screwed, if sf do this, their finances should be far more stable than whats been before, but they have to embrace it first, then explain to the public how it works, theyre failing to do this at the moment

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089140#Comment_118089140

With the proviso that it's extremely difficult to project seats from polls in Ireland (due to our lack of quality regional polls and the complexity of predicting lower order seats in our multi-seat constituencies) a projection I saw after the latest round of polls had:

• SF - 60
• FG - 43
• FF - 31
• SD - 5
• LAB - 4
• PBP/SOL - 4
• GP - 3
• AON - 1
• IND - 9

So yes, I think your assessment is accurate, in that SF cannot get into government without FF, but if FF rule that out what else is even realistically possible?

Are you advocating for an Israeli situation where we just end up having a series of elections in a year because everybody despises everyone else?

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089298#Comment_118089298

I think you have no sense of perspective. You need to travel more, I suggest. It was not inevitable that Ireland would today be one of the places in the world with the highest quality of life. You're happy to heap bile on FF and FG (and presumably the other parties of government since the foundation of the state) and you correctly point out the shortcomings we see today. But you don't want to acknowledge all the things that they got right?

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089448#Comment_118089448

All this above .... plus putting Sinn Féin anywhere near the levers of power in the Republic whilst they are also supposed to be governing up North, would be playing with absolute fire.

When push comes to shove next election the SF fan boys and girls will evaporate in the face of reality.

We are set to live with various coalitions here excluding SF. Until they sort themselves out up North and then the public might consider it.

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089543#Comment_118089543

I've no idea what you are trying to say. Something something Ireland is worse than Somalia.

Who is talking absolute horsesh!t? You have the privilege to live in one of the happiest, healthiest and richest countries in the world. Unfortunately, we are also plagued by ignorant people with no appreciation or understanding of how lucky they are.

Is this an argument for the position that things cannot get better? No. Is it an argument that we should not try to make things better? No. Is it an argument for some sort of perspective on exactly how well we are and have been governed? Yes, it is.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089684#Comment_118089684

It's a mess alright, the vote is so spread.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089737#Comment_118089737

...and you d wonder why many have had enough of our major parties! ive been to the developing world, yes we are indeed privileged, but its perspective time now! we have an ever growing amount of well educated, middle class people, actually unable to meet their most critical of needs, most obvious in their property needs, modern, primarily western politics and economics, has failed, its time for us to become big grown ups, and accept these failures

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089803#Comment_118089803

"modern, primarily western politics and economics, has failed, its time for us to become big grown ups, and accept these failures"

Cool - so which mode of economics/government do you suggest we adopt? Feudalism? Hunter-gathering?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089918#Comment_118089918

its interesting you used the term feudalism, as some respected commentators actually use this term to describe whats currently occurring, its clearly obvious wealth is accumulating, and fast, due to these ideologies, and if you think those who are on the receiving end of this are happy about this, watch out, cause theyre on the way! we re clearly entering an era of significant destabilisation, in particular politically, so be ready for it.

...and to answer your question, i believe we urgently need to create a new form of capitalism, and fast, or we could just decide to go full retard.... only our primary government parties are continually defaulting to their preferred form of capatalism, and its clearly obvious, it wont work, its just going to keep failing!

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090029#Comment_118090029

So Ireland creates a new form of capitalism, on its own? What is this form of capitalism, and how does it work?

Or is this just going to be some hand-waving/sci fi proposal indistinguishable from magic?

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089684#Comment_118089684

Would not necessarily be impossible for SF to form a government without FF or FG involvement on those numbers. Obviously would depend on the makeup of the independents. I've said it before but if a non-FF/FG government was even remotely possible, there would be massive pressure on all sections of the Left top make it happen.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090731#Comment_118090731

Only if they end up with some absurd coalition. You are talking SF/SD/LB/GP/PBPSOL and then 5 INDs.

Absolutely no way that government gets anything done. You are also relying on the PBPSOL crowd who can barely agree what day of the week it is and have no interest at all in being part of the decision making process.

They need FF.

Of course, election is far away still, SF could see further gains, but they need to start eating larger chunks of FF's dinner rather than taking from the plates of the other left parties.

FrancieBrady

I think SF are positioning themselves for a coalition government deal with FF or FG at their Ard Fheis atm. Dropping their rejection of the SCC with caveats is a big move.

Larbre34

It is yeah, they should be dropping it without caveats, but they want to keep their nefarious friends somewhat onside.

Usual SF nonsense, cherry picking law and order and the constitution since 1971.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090838#Comment_118090838

While I said FF would be crazy to go for this, the chances of FG entertaining a coalition with SF is absolutely zero.

FG would lick their lips at going into opposition against SF/FF. Outside of actually winning the election and getting top spot again, that outcome is probably the next best from a FG party political viewpoint.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090860#Comment_118090860

I'd have said that of old FG and FF. But look what happened. FG displayed a hunger to stay in power last time. I wouldn't be so sure of what they would do. Neither FF nor FG can afford to become irrelevant and one of them will as politics re-adjust away from the power swap of the last 100 years.

Larbre34

They will merge, sooner or later. No other long term solution makes sense. It'll probably begin with electoral pacts and so forth, and will take a decade or two to complete, but it will happen.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090889#Comment_118090889

How would a SF/FG coalition even work? What do they even agree on? Coalition usually means compromises on policy but it generally requires some sort of commonality to at least begin with.

I can't imagine SF would consider a FG coalition to be honest. They would need to be really desperate for power.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090889#Comment_118090889

FG being the primary opposition to SF/FF would obviously be the exact opposite of becoming irrelevant.

Anyway, this is silly. There is zero chance of FG going into coalition with SF. Absolutely stone cold zero.

Larbre34

Correct.

In fact, SF are coalition repugnant to everyone bar the far loony left and combined with their seat bonus aversion, the limit of their ambitions may be quite a bit lower than they expect.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090945#Comment_118090945

Put a glass and your ear to the door of any FF meeting up and down the country, and catch a fair whack of the parliamentary party in their honest moments. A plurality would rather a coalition with SF than FG. That's reality.

They're going to make life very difficult for Vardakar once he's back in the driver's seat, and you can't say the man hasn't earned it.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090925#Comment_118090925

Ideologically, is there any difference between FF and FG worth talking about? So if a coalition with FF is possible, one with FG is too.

Politics in Ireland is changing in a way I never thought it would. Anything is possible.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090935#Comment_118090935

Grand theory if you think the FG demographic isn't changing. But it is and very quickly too.

Podge_irl

Can you please enlighten me as to how and where it is so rapidly changing that something that they ruled out within fractions of a second after the last election somehow would become plausible further down the line? They have been by far the most antagonistic to each other in the current Dail. There is not the remotest sign of their enmity disappearing.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091054#Comment_118091054

I wouldn't rule it out, is all I am saying.

A couple of years ago I would have adamantly ruled out FF and FG coalescing.

Look at the vote FG can now muster if you have problems understanding how the demographics are changing. It isnt that long ago ceilings of the high teens were being talked about for SF.

Podge_irl

Yes, SF have done remarkably well. But while the FG vote is heading downwards, the demographic very much remains those who would rather see the party dissolve than go into govt with SF.

It is possible in the pointless sense of "anything is possible", but there is really zero reason to think it is ever going to happen. Particularly not when FF exist and are the much, much, much likelier to do so.

The party to gain the most will be the one in opposition when and if SF are in power imo.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091106#Comment_118091106

My personal opinion is that either FF or FG will take a hammering next time out. That will leave only 2 parties capable of forming a 2 party coalition. The size of the SF mandate will create its own dynamic. If it is a large vote then I rwally dont think they can be shut out on moral grounds.

And I don't think either FF or FG have a track record of maintaining a moral stance and are well able to swallow hard. And i think a coalition is possible for that reason.

We'll see.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089657#Comment_118089657

Not balancing the books is ok. LOL.

Probably something the SF spoofer finance rep would say. The country is riddled with debt ffs. Let's not pile more welfare handouts on to an already inflated welfare state. FF and FG have done enough damage there.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089726#Comment_118089726

what are you talking about, might consider it? did you forget the last election , SF would have won most seats if they ran more candidates. Some of their candidates, nobody knew who they were, but people so sick of the FFG crap, the voted for them regardless... I can only imagine another several years of this current farce, things are going to get worse for the coalition of failure. If talking meant anything, ireland would be worldclass in every regard...

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089704#Comment_118089704

please, enlighten me with what they got right.. i am all ears... The motorway network isnt bad, Ill give you one there... They are appalling on the environment, and frankly every other matter in my opinion. Cant defend ourselves, law and order is a farce. Infrastructure a farce. health, housing ...

I will tell you what though, we do have a world class welfare state aswel though, creating a sort of poverty trap. You probably see that as a good thing, I dont...

Keep Margaret cash and co from emigrating, god forbit. Keep them here at all costs! Let the young and educated, facing rip off everything here, emigrate... Its just a really brilliant idea... Wolf of wall street rate of marginal tax on a peasant income. Thats the irony though isnt it, outrageous taxes for the little peasant, while the wolf of wall street pays in a relative pittance. Wanderer78 correctly raises many of the issues facing society. Far too many of you , have been listening to the FFG BS of "well they contribute a pittance in corporation tax" but they have a factory or two etc in ireland... Trickle down economics bullshit. Designed to keep those who know a bit more than nothing, thinking we arent actually being screwed! These companies with more money than god, contribute a pittance of what they morally should be...

But go on, defend someone here earning over 35,000 losing half their income... (half their income over 35k or whatever pittance it is. I just know some genius will be along to tell me, that you dont lose half your income at 35k...)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091223#Comment_118091223

Mary Lou got it wrong, no two ways about it. Tactically messed up and cost SF at least 5 years. A weak leader, unlike SF leaders of the past.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091191#Comment_118091191

this is now well proven, go outside of politics for this one, theres now sufficient evidence to support, a deficit run economy is far more safer than a primarily credit run one, but not problem free of course, once again, graph supplied! we truly need to get over this one, oh and deficit money doesnt necessarily need to be only given to those on welfare, even though pup has proven, given citizens on welfare more money directly benefits the economy, as this money is spent into the economy, but providing the economy with more public money via deficit spending is far better, as private sector money, i.e. credit, generally just moves towards asset markets, inflating asset prices, in particular related to property and land markets.

the whole planet is riddled with debt, its how our economic and monetary systems work, i.e. credit and debt! without it, there would be no economic activities, period, but again as the graph shows, private debt has now become the far more dangerous of the two, so pick your poison!

Ireland Debt.jpg

FrancieBrady

There would be some who would see this answer as maybe not the door being opened, but certainly being held ajar.

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1454135715047120901

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091168#Comment_118091168

But how does it come to be FG rather than FF that is doing the deal with SF. Can you sketch out the circumstances where that could happen? FF turn them down but FG are up for it?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091393#Comment_118091393

Thought I had written that post clearer.

I think it will be only one or the other able to hold negotiations. FF or FG will take a hammering and not be able to form a 2 party coalition.

With a FG Taoiseach heading into an election,(if the government runs it's term) it could well be FG taking that hammering.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091428#Comment_118091428

I don't see why it has two be a two-party coalition. Plenty of left-wing parties up for a deal with SF. IMO FF+Lab+SD+whoever will always be a prefereable lineup of coalition partners than FG for SF.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091440#Comment_118091440

Correct. I was just talking about one possible scenario.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091255#Comment_118091255

in the long run, its probably worked out even better for them!

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091428#Comment_118091428

FFG need to ditch their pathetic leaders, they are both toxic to the electorate...

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091464#Comment_118091464

SF would have been shut out until FG FF tried coalition IMO. They might cling to power again if the numbers stack up and they can find a few extra independents etc.

Problem for FF and FG now is how do they answer the question, 'will you go into a coalition again with each other?' They won't get away with pretending they won't anymore. They will suffer if they campaign on the status quo arrangement and one or the other will take the fall for this government if they go on 'we won't do that again' ticket.

Tricky one to negotiate.

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090889#Comment_118090889

I can see SF becoming FF mk 2 in the next 20 years. Loudly Republican, left-of-centre, etc. etc. - FF may well die off or hang around by their fingernails for a time. Not a bad thing either.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091630#Comment_118091630

Are they not kinda there already?

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091234#Comment_118091234

Just to be clear, your position is that it is blind luck that we have one of the highest standards of living in the world?

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089657#Comment_118089657

I missed this epic comment.

So you propose we get in greater and greater debt? Who do you think will continue to lend to us? Do we pay interest on these borrowings at all? This is hilarious stuff.

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091638#Comment_118091638

Well they still have a bit of a hangover from the 'up the 'Ra' element, and a lot of the TDs currently elected are very very weak (probably people that SF did not expect to get elected) but as SF continues to gain traction with the electorate, you can see more ambitious career politician types seeing them as a route to career success rather than FF.

Podge_irl

Even if one of FF or FG is decimated (and its looking far more likely to be FF at this stage), it would make far more sense for them to be in opposition then in a SF led govt. If FF get decimated they can help SF over the top. If FG get decimated they sit back and let SF and FF come to some arrangement and hope to benefit like SF did the Confidence and Supply arrangement.

Ideologically FG are far, far further away from contemplating a coalition with SF than FF. As long as the latter exists there is no way that FG will go into coalition with SF.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090935#Comment_118090935

I agree it is unlikely, but there is no way, that anything could be ruled out. How often have we been proved massively wrong, its so common, its nearly the norm. trump, brexit etc...

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091670#Comment_118091670

What happens if the new coalition do get a handle on the crisises that are decimating the power swap? The gambit to stay in opposition looks a bit more like hari kari if that happens.

I don't know if they can usher in a new way, but I'm so fed up with the incumbents I am willing to give it a go. There are more like me every day, judging from the polls.

awec

There is no basis on which a SF/FG coalition would work.

There is no way FG would support a SF budget that sees their vote base being targeted for tax increases.