Fine Gael Demographic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118070769#Comment_118070769

In more rural areas additional houses may mean additional services and a greater desire to live in that area which would increase the price of the original house or the value of a site owned by the original house owner.

Parents see their children not being able to buy a home despite working full time so will vote in their interest therefore may switch to SF.

I'd vote SocDem if they ran a candidate, in my area.

As it is I cant vote Labour as have no faith that they wouldn't about face and join FFG again. Leave me with very little choice.

IMHO I think SF supporters are, at heart, still a bunch of cop killing scumbag cheerleaders. That Martin Ferris gave them a hero's welcome, their letter got a standing ovation at SF conference, and that SF lobbied for their early release... More than a little sour taste in my mouth but I've zero faith in the incompetent incumbents.

Good loser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118070741#Comment_118070741

Can you not see that SF will correspond to FF Mark 2?

There are at least two fundamental problems with 'solving' the housing problem that SF can do nothing about

• shortage of labour in the construction industry
• the high percentage of current expenditure allocated to social welfare.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118072598#Comment_118072598

Unfortunate and true and yet the swing vote will blame FG for the current situation and vote for SF as a vote against FG if they don't get some affordable houses built before the next election. Shortage of labor in the construction industry is a result of poor policies up to this point. They didn't emigrant en masse over the last couple of years.

There seems to be a few people here making very sound arguments on why people should not vote for SF and the rebuttal is that their young base are struggling despite doing everything right and are switching over to the other crowd out of frustration as we can't see anything tangible being done.

Being fiscally conservative over the next few years when there is a housing crisis won't solve it.

Housing is the whole ball game for the next election.

The swing vote are not voting for SF generally, they are voting against FG/FF and that is the crucial thing that people need to understand as it shapes the whole conversation so challenging the views of SF don't amount to much in this context, it only matters what FG/FF manage to get done over the next couple of years.

I firmly believe that, should SF become government lead in a stable majority, FFG will merge, with FF being taken by FG

After this SF will be set as a primary party in government or opposition

The Labour leadership of 2012 deserve all the derision they get. They had it made

Leader of opposition

Early FFG coalition

Numbers rising

Popular leader

But no, they fell for the same old trap the large parties always pulled. See the threat a growing party poses in an election or two. Insinuate that they're "afraid to be in government", goad them into being a Junior Partner, and watch as their core feels betrayed by every capitulation.

It's their fall which completely splintered the left, allowing SF to rebrand as the party of the working class

Nothing so dramatic will happen as that. They have had a great run of passing the baton over and back while really only seeing minor changes in the number of seats each wins.

Not going to ruin a good thing because SF get to drive for 5 years.

Podge_irl

FG would not have debated going into coalition with FF for even a fraction of a second in 2011. There was never the slightest chance. It could potentially have been a minority or FG+ind govt though.

There is also very little chance of them merging any time in the near future and why would they? There is no logical reason to for either of them. SF are not going to be in a govt with a stable majority unless they go into coalition with FF anyway.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118073669#Comment_118073669

Back in 2020 time I seriously thought there would be some sort of FF+SF tie-up, and that FF would give MM the chop in order to enable it.

Murph85

It's going to get so much worse for ffg. That I can see sf not even needing either ff or fg to form a government...

Murph85

Ironically if ff want a serious bounce, get rid of mm and get someone in, who will actually do, what varadkar and fg said they would do...

And actually do it !

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118073669#Comment_118073669

I think it would have pushed it far faster than we got and 2016 would have seen it.

I could easily see them being as stable as the current government. Held together by pure dread, at this point

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118072722#Comment_118072722

Zero chance of FF & FG merging in the near future. Both parties are full of members who see themselves as radically different from each other and those are the people that would be responsible for any merger. Maybe in 30 years or so. You'll see a Labour & Soc Dems merger before you'll see a FF/FG merger and Labour and the Soc Dems won't be merging anytime soon.

The whole "If only Labour had stayed out" is results-orientated thinking of the highest order. It's easy to look back in hindsight after their near annihilation in 2016 but decisions don't work like that and any analysis of their decision on that basis is flawed. You have to go back to the aftermath of the 2011 general election when the decision to enter government was made. There literally was no alternative. FF were basically political lepers and that's before you even consider the political history between themselves and FG. There was literally zero chance of a coalition happening then. On the other hand, Labour and FG had formed a reasonably successful coalition (along with the Democratic Left) in the mid '90s. Labour had campaigned on the basis that they would go into government and had just had their most successful ever election.

Now you can absolutely make the argument that Labour made a load of mistakes once in power (and they did) but the argument that they made a blunder in going into coalition in the first place is not a credible one.

meeeeh

Labour would be probably better off in opposition in 2011. They made promises in that election that no party could keep and frankly if people voted for that they were very naive. In opposition they could continue to pretend they would do things differently but sooner or later they would be found out. FF and FG coalition was not on the cards in 2011 anyway so it's a bit pointless. Labour knew they will be in government after election and they tried to win votes promising way to much.

Anyway a bit of realignment won't harm Irish politics but SF are creating high expectations among people that everything will be different this time. It won't and a lot of people will be disappointed. Plus they have some proper lightweights, I can't imagine worse candidate to replace Pascal than Pearse Doherty.

An Claidheamh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118073901#Comment_118073901

I think MM had dug himself into a corner saying he would not go in with SF, for which he was cheerleaded by a certain Eoghan Harris/Barbara J Pym - say what ever happened to him/her…?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118075299#Comment_118075299

Sinn Fein on paper are a poor replacement. I think most reasonable people will agree with that. FG haven't delivered on their promises to the young middle/working class so how can we be expected to vote them back in? Even if SF don't fix the problem we at least make the statement that letting us down so badly will result in being voted out. I am hoping that FG/FF react in time.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118042434#Comment_118042434

You want repossessions to be easier, yet you claim you are going to vote for SF who have repeatedly asked that all repossessions be stopped. Does not add up.

Labour or the Social Democrats would be more appropriate. You can be guaranteed that SF will do nothing for you.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118076091#Comment_118076091

If the swing vote I'm referring to (educated/trade working full time and priced out of Dublin) were to go to Labour / Soc Dems what impact would that have on the future composition of the government?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081115#Comment_118081115

In my mind, the biggest lesson from the last election is that a vote for Sinn Fein is a wasted vote if you actually want to change things. Sure, if you want to let off steam and roar and shout with the best of them, a vote for Sinn Fein will give you what you want.

However, after the election, nobody wanted to touch Sinn Fein with a bargepole other than PBP, and even they ended up split over it. Labour, SDs, Greens, Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Independents etc. all ran away from discussion with Sinn Fein, probably because of the old adage of lying down with dogs.

My advice therefore is to vote for whichever of those other parties is closest to your views so that they end up with the strongest possible hand in government. Hence I expect to be voting Green again.

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118071147#Comment_118071147

I’d rather vote for a party of law abiding individuals then supporters of criminals and individuals with a dubious grasp of democracy... SF get in you would see a lot more criminality but closer to the seat of power in addition to communities...

their support base will only feel enabled by them in government therefore our communities will be less safe..

Murph85

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/changed-income-tax-regime-needed-if-we-are-to-continue-attracting-talent-1.4707993

good article on our outrageous marginal rate of tax here... too busy using the money for free 4eva homes, black hole hse and god knows what other crap. Certainly not delivering on their tax decrease to spend ratio...

Which party is most likely to get some affordable houses built?

I'm a single issue voter at this stage.

I'll focus on health, climate, education, crime, pensions, ect once I have that sorted.

Good loser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118082440#Comment_118082440

That's not a very realistic stance to take. The timelines involved are too long. Land, housing, building are all long term projects.

Remember if SF get in - especially as a lead partner - they will take quite a while to adjust to the realities of power and compromise.

Their policies re current expenditure are unconvincing, to me.

Why not consider moving out of the city. Or save more intensively.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083264#Comment_118083264

I can't do much more than what I'm doing. Taking on a large mortgage now for a house I would need to upsize in a few years would really hinder me.

I know a lot of people move out of the city (meaning 20km of city center) but with my role I can't work from the spare room regularly and the commute each day from a place like Naas would be a killer. I have previously done a 90 minute commute each way and during the busier parts of the year for me this would be a very tough burden to add on.

I cant vote for the parties whose policies placed me and many more like me in this situation so I'm looking for the alternative as I can't stomach one more promise from FG that won't materialise.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118082440#Comment_118082440

The realpolitik of the situation is if the next government is not formed by another deal of some sort between FF and FG it will almost certainly be led by SF, with Eoin O'Broin almost certainly given the housing ministry. So in practice a vote for anyone other than FF/FG (and in reality anyone other than FG) is a vote to give SF control of housing policy. So if you think SF housing policy is even slightly better than the current government's I'd say they're your only option.

Good loser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083323#Comment_118083323

All that needs to be weighed up then is the credibility of SF and their policies. Unless their overall policies are sound they will not be able to deliver on the housing front. Given their commitments on social welfare I don't think their figures add up. Plus it is hard to see the business ever being enthusiastic about them.

A party that is against property tax (that will go) water charges and carbon tax is not credible.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118081553#Comment_118081553

You do know that parties change stances between elections right? Specifically, just because FF ruled out SF in the last election doesn't mean that the will for the next election. In fact I'd be surprised if they did (especially with MM gone as leader).

My money on the government after the next election would be on SF-FF. I'm sure SF would prefer to go in with a bunch of left-wing parties but I cannot see the numbers being there for that especially when a lot of SF's gains will be made at the expense of those very parties.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118085830#Comment_118085830

Yes, that is a possibility, but it would be the end of FF. Then again, maybe any other action by FF only delays the inevitable.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118085866#Comment_118085866

Why do you think it would the end of FF? After all they are "The Republican Party" and quite a lot of their TDs were open to the idea after the last election. FF are possibly the most ideologically fluid party in the Dail. They don't really stand for anything so it's not like there would be too many policy red-lines for them.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118083747#Comment_118083747

Honestly from an entirely selfish perspective I don't need them to balance the budget. If they go to the capital markets and throw major money at the housing issue which results in some cuts to other areas in the following years then I'm good with that. I believe that the labour will show up from other countries and many of them will be Irish when the money starts flowing. I'm concerned that they will focus too much on social housing and not on affordable housing but beyond that I'm willing to risk it to try to get a change. Even if they focus on social housing it will affect yields on rental properties so they will come to the market as more landlords leave. Ultimately we all vote in our own interests and right now it is no longer FG for me so I need them out, not pandering to a minority party to form a majority against SF.

Good loser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118087095#Comment_118087095

If you expect the political world to deliver a fix to your specific problem you could be waiting a very, very long time. Especially if you are expecting it from a new party in power. Next election 2025, 4 months to form a Govt, compromises on election 'commitments', new Minister (if FF/SF FF will be delighted to give E O Broin the job), then Govt tenders 1/2 years, building 1/2 years and then the competition for the affordable houses.

Far, far better to look to your own resources and resourcefulness to get what you want. I saw a fine (enough) semi in Wilton, Cork priced at €275,000. A slightly better house in Clontarf cost €575k.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118087486#Comment_118087486

It is what I'm doing and looking at all the ways I can increase income and cut costs.

Ultimately I will be voting out FG and don't expect any party will fix housing in time for me to benefit but seeing how FG have really let down the working class means it will be a very long time before I consider giving them a vote.

I'll never be a supporter of SF but a message has to be sent to FG that they have to look after younger people who are following all the rules of the game and struggling to get a home and have a couple of kids.

If that message has to be sent by voting for the main opposition party then that is what will have to be done.

There is no excuse for the shocking lack of affordable housing being built within a reasonable commuting distance of Dublin.

Bobeagleburger

Sinn Féin should get in next time. My bet is they'll saddle up with FF which would be funny considering how much they moan about each other

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088423#Comment_118088423

It would be a coalition devoid of any credibility.

FF would be crazy to go in as junior party in a SF led government.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118086446#Comment_118086446

Because they will have no natural constituency after they make that move. SF would regard any deal with FF as "a temporary little arrangement" and would be unlikely to be encouraging their followers to transfer to them at subsequent elections. And on the other front anti-SF 'Middle Ireland' would desert them en masse for FG. Basically politics would be polarised between FG and the SF-led Left and FF would be stranded in no man's land in between.

Bobeagleburger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088868#Comment_118088868

Numbers will dictate. SF will probably need either FF or FG.

However, FG need time as an opposition party. They've been in power too long, and need to break away from FF to grow again imo.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088931#Comment_118088931

FG would absolutely want to go into opposition, FF are in a tougher spot but being junior partner under FF is going to be terrible for them in the long term.

FF would need to hold some of the major ministries in any such government if they want to stay relevant, and that means they'll carry the can when SF fail to deliver on all of their promises.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088931#Comment_118088931

FG's whole raison d'etre going forward will be as the anti-SF party. Doing a deal with SF for the sake of a few years in power would be a suicidal trashing of their brand. And the thing is it would never happen anyway as SF will always choose FF over FG as a partner. So it's absolutely in FG's interest to categorically rule out a deal with SF ahead of every election and stick to their word afterward.

Murph85

Look we can all rattle on until the cows come home and speculate. But a third force in irish politics has to be given a chance, to force change. Because FFG are and have been an absolute failure. Infrastructure is a disgrace, housing a disgrace, HSE a disgrace, law and order here a farce, every area is an absolute joke!

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089074#Comment_118089074

Yes but someone has to be the sacrificial lamb. If FF go in with SF it will 100% be them.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089097#Comment_118089097

it will be very interesting to see how the numbers pan out, you would wonder if SF, the greens and say a SD, Labour rainbow coalition could be formed. Clean cut would be Sf and FF coalition. I can see FG taking a term out, they can sit on the opposition benches, telling the new crowd how to do, what they havent done in over a decade in office...

Murph85

As an aside, a few of my mates and brother have managed to buy their homes after years of struggling to save and bailouts from parents and relatives. Many will be voting SF, you dont forgot the disgrace it is, or lose compassion for others quickly! Or forgot the high prices and europes highest mortgage rates, when you will be paying them for 30 years!

Its like the OP says in the OP, all I also care about is relatively affordable homes. You would swear all of us care about forever homes for the pyjama brigade, because the politicians must see RTE and the left wing media talk relentlessly about the homeless and 4eva home brigade. They are away with the fairies!

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089106#Comment_118089106

Based on the poll numbers that we saw earlier in the month SF/GP/LB/SD wouldn't get over the line and would still result in a minority.

I believe, if an election were held tomorrow, SF would have no route to government that did not include FF propping them up. Trying to do it without FF would mean they'd need the GP, SD, LB, PBP and some INDs. It would never work.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089140#Comment_118089140

Yeah.... I dont think the public will really tolerate another FFG coalition if SF win the largest number of seats of any party... the people will have well and truly spoken. I can see housing getting much worse and the current coalition losing more seats. I mean lets be honest, housing, health, congestion are all going to get worse. Petrol and diesel prices are mental and will continue increasing, there isnt the money there for giveaway budgets...

They created this entire mess from decades of short term populism, they have themselves to blame entirely! not SF or any other bogey man. As for any of their SF being terrorists BS. Listen, people are terrorised for years with rip off housing, couch surfing etc. They would want to start coming up with better than that old chestnut. As for talking about SF and magic money trees etc, the irony is hilarious.

I would ideally love to have another credible option to SF, one that rewarded workers more etc. But I dont see that coming before the next election. Infact I reckon the only way that happens here, is if there is a split within FG etc. They can do some soul searching on why they have lost huge support. Maybe then someone will have the spine, to do what won them so much support years ago. Actually do look after those that work hard. They have an obsession here, with looking after those that have never worked!

Murph85

Irish inflation breaches 5% for first time since the year 2000! Just came across this on breaking news on the indo website...

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-inflation-roars-back-to-celtic-tiger-levels-40996136.html

Murph85

I would start index linking the OAP to the cost of living , along with the income tax rates, every budget and stop the whole farce around it every year. Start looking at a welfare system, based on what you paid in (I believe they are looking at this) Abolish LPT, as partial offset for the scandalous rate of marginal tax, that will be very hard to change. New petrol and diesels charged at way higher level of motor tax than current levels. All social housing rents , withdrawn at source if needs be. Massive increase in prison spaces, to deal with the large amount of degenrates roaming our streets. Proper transport police. Proper infrastructure that they have talked about for decades in dublin and elsewhere, but havent done anything about. Like I said, if they had done a fraction of what they have talked about for decades, we wouldnt be in this position. People are out of patience...

They are changes I would make and are doable even in this country, where no party wants to touch anything with a bargepole, out of cowardice.

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089074#Comment_118089074

You hear this narrative a lot, but oddly enough Ireland is a pretty wealthy country, people who want jobs can get jobs, we have extremely generous social welfare (better than maybe 95% of the world), and it's a very good place to live in terms of quality of life.

Everyone knows things could be better. This is true in every country on the planet. There are obvious gaps and issues right now, but the idea that this is some sort of disastrous hellhole is so far from reality it's not even funny.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089238#Comment_118089238

This attitude has us where we are! Is it a hell hole? no. Is the level of governance near acceptable? no! Its like saying, things in germany arent perfect either, so that makes it ok... Its a ridiculous way of looking at it. I think the fairest way is, after decades, looking at the bigger picture. Even with very low expectations, I dont think what has and does go on here, is even close to acceptable...

dudley72

I think we all have figured out the online campaign by Sinn Fein at this stage. FG have said no chance they will go into government with Sinn Fein so they are the target. Across all media forms it is the same as this and it all starts with "I used to vote for FG but etc etc etc"

In reality the percent of voters for FG wasn't great for years till FF f**ked it all up and they got in for one election and then dropped back again, but if we are to take the number of people on social media who claimed they voted for FG they should of had a way bigger hold on Ireland.

The great white hope is that FF will jump on the SF bandwagon, hence why you have the lack of "I used to vote for FF but etc etc etc" in these threads. Which should be more common due to the high percentage of the population who voted for FF.

It doesn't matter what way you look at this, SF are anti worker. They will destroy a huge percentage of jobs in Ireland and it will be a disaster, want an example just look at the rich tax which was 140k and a year later it's 100k. What will it end up at to pay for the crazy plans SF have?

Also in terms of actually fixing anything like health, well just take the most recent interview when they talk about prefab hospital and Cullinane couldn't even explain how SF would manage to hire loads of consultants, as they are promising, while at the same time telling them they have to pay more & more tax. The guy couldn't even tell the presenter how much a consultant is on(this is all available to everyone on the hSE website along with all HSE pay grades).

People complain about everything now, saying it should be this/that and the other. Then of course we are told Sinn Fein are new and shiny and they are not corrupt. But look at the North, 1998 the GFA was signed and they have driven the place backwards at every opportunity. Including shutting down the government for 3 years over wood chips and Irish Language act which 0.01% of the people in Northern Ireland speak.

Then we are also told we should ignore DCC which Sinn Fein took over in 2014, they even had article on SF website about how they would run it and build houses etc. Between 2014 and 2019 they made a complete disaster, built nothing and ended up with a 33m debt(up from circa 20M) owed to DCC for non payment, they did manage 1 eviction for the 33 odd million.

That's the Sinn Fein that everyone is saying is the answer. God help us all if that shower do get voted in

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089238#Comment_118089238

jesus, this absolute horseh1t! the bulk of irelands wealth is stored in 'assets', such as property and land, similar to other similar countries, so if you dont own assets, you re probably sh1t out of luck! the problem isnt with welfare classes, as they generally dont own many assets, if any at all, but theyre a very convenient scape goat though! our welfare is so generous, as soon as pup was introduced, it was almost immediately doubled! yes there are many countries far worse to live in, but theres actually no need to constrain such people, increasing pup has proven extremely beneficial to all in society, as it improved citizens lives considerably, and provided the economy with critically needed liquidity, i.e. money, which was spent into the economy, kept many businesses open, and employed more people! this is ultimately where our primary government parties keep failing, i.e. not all citizens own assets, less are able to gain access to purchasing these assets, and most are requiring even more of their income over time, to keep a roof over their heads, this approach to running our economy and society is now failing, possible collapsing!

Bobeagleburger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088962#Comment_118088962

Only a very naive person would think SF can deliver all their promises tbf. No party delivers their promises.

They'll find out soon enough that we need to pay for things, and this wealth tax is pie in the sky stuff. No doubts banning the property tax will be another pipe dream. Their financial rep is an absolute spoofer.

I'd love a Utd Ireland to be achieved. That's sinn féins aim. When it comes to financials they are all over the place.