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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • #752
    TefalBrain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 710 ✭✭✭TefalBrain


    Phishnet wrote: »
    I would like to give readers the true figures from the UK for Delta Variant Deaths in the last week.

    117 total deaths.

    44 unvaccinated

    23 single dose

    50 fully vaccinated



    I will leave it there.


    That's it? For a country of 62m people? You'd fit that on a double decker bus.


  • #753
    Richard Hillman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1409988135287767040?s=19

    Absolutely no increase in deaths. It's just so unfortunate that this HSE Data Hacking won't give us access to the death numbers here and won't likely for the future. So unfortunate.


  • #754
    martingriff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,339 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    Phishnet wrote: »
    I would like to give readers the true figures from the UK for Delta Variant Deaths in the last week.

    117 total deaths.

    44 unvaccinated

    23 single dose

    50 fully vaccinated



    I will leave it there.

    Where did you get these not disagreeing with you


  • #755
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Phishnet wrote: »
    I would like to give readers the true figures from the UK for Delta Variant Deaths in the last week.

    117 total deaths.

    44 unvaccinated

    23 single dose

    50 fully vaccinated

    I will leave it there.

    By the way, this is routinely shared all over the place and it is incredibly misleading.

    First, vaccines are not 100% protective. In fact, no medicine is. Those with severe underlying issues and those who are comorbid with being very old / on the verge of death, will still suffer from COVID-19 in ways that younger vaccinated people will not.

    Vaccines are not intended to be a 100% panacea.

    When you see stats like the above, bear the above analysis in mind.


  • #756
    Patrick2010
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,765 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    NEPHET and Tony Holohan are the equivalent of the Catholic Church in the sixties as run by John Charles McQuaid, like McQuaid Tony believes no one should ever question his pronouncements, both equally arrogant.


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  • #757
    Martin567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭Martin567


    Phishnet wrote: »
    READ THE FIGURES AGAIN.

    MORE PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THE COVID DELTA VARIANT THAT HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED THAN THOSE WHO ARE NOT VACCINATED AT ALL!

    So answer the question you were asked.

    What is your solution? Stop vaccinating immediately? Stay locked down forever?


  • #758
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Talk of protests is all well and good but they take time to organise, time to be semi-fobbed off while the government "considers" things etc. Open up and see what they do. I've seen very few who won't support them.


  • #759
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,119 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Phishnet wrote: »
    I would like to give readers the true figures from the UK for Delta Variant Deaths in the last week.

    117 total deaths.

    44 unvaccinated

    23 single dose

    50 fully vaccinated


    More people have died in the UK from the Delta variant Covid virus that have been fully vaccinated than those who have not been vaccinated at all.

    I will leave it there.

    Show me your evidence they died from covid and not with covid.

    Thanks.


  • #760
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Phishnet wrote: »
    READ THE FIGURES AGAIN.

    MORE PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THE COVID DELTA VARIANT THAT HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED THAN THOSE WHO ARE NOT VACCINATED AT ALL!

    And?

    Can you disseminate those figures and provide some of your own analysis?


  • #761
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    Phishnet wrote: »
    READ THE FIGURES AGAIN.

    MORE PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THE COVID DELTA VARIANT THAT HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED THAN THOSE WHO ARE NOT VACCINATED AT ALL!

    Or those who are fully vaccinated are more likely to be older and therefore more susceptible to adverse impacts from the virus?


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  • #762
    Feria40
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭Feria40


    TefalBrain wrote: »
    That's it? For a country of 62m people? You'd fit that on a double decker bus.

    And it's old rope at this stage but from those deaths in the UK over the past week, what was there underlying health status? What age cohort did they fall into?

    50 deaths occurred amongst the fully vacinated you say, is it possible that these poor folk were elderly for the most part?

    Not being ageist by the way, but we already know that average age of death for a Covid patient is well into their 80's. People in their 80's who by in large have pre-existing conditions, predominantly related to heart health.

    Does your source link for the UK Covid death rate include the above data?

    If not then I am afraid it's worthless. Covid will be endemic for a number of years. After Delta we will have Delta+, followed by an alphabet soup of other variants. Some people will continue to die from Covid for a long time into the future, hopefully not many but definitely some. Even among the fully vacinated


  • #763
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,119 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Phishnet wrote: »
    READ THE FIGURES AGAIN.

    MORE PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THE COVID DELTA VARIANT THAT HAVE BEEN FULLY VACCINATED THAN THOSE WHO ARE NOT VACCINATED AT ALL!

    SHOW US THE EVIDENCE THEY DIED FROM COVID AND NOT WITH COVID!


  • #764
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,445 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »
    Has Tony given an indication yet of when - sometime in the future - all restrictions will be removed?

    2 months, maybe?

    2 months? NPHET are predicting scenes akin to 28 Days Later for August and September. Next year more like.

    89c2764f16af678216a231794ad67bffd12f1fbd773739d011aa18142bd634fd._V_SX1080_.jpg


  • #765
    Marcusm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,801 ✭✭✭✭Marcusm


    statto25 wrote: »
    I was vaccined today and had a chat with the nurse administering the jab. She hadn't seen Martin's speech but when I explained the new measures she immediately said "it's all down to the drink you know" and she's right. This is all down to the lack of trust of the general public to behave should things open further. Holohan seeing the carry on in Dublin first hand many weeks back was the nail in the coffin for July 5th. A man who is staunch anti alcohol is in charge of the reopening of Pubs and Restaurants.

    I don’t disagree with this and it think it was apparent around the end of last summer as some marches started to happen that there was less respect for space and distancing amongst pubs which were allowed to be open than in more formal cafe/restaurant settings. This is natural and understandable for the most part. However, I have no faith in the modelling. The results are just too absurd and, so far as I can tell, no particular accord has been given to the Ik’s 8 weeks of experience is living with an increasingly dominant Delta variant. It would not be possible to carve pubs out of the reopening as it would be electoral suicide. However, I think this is the worst of all worlds. (Other than rampaging Ebola, of course.)


  • #766
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Phishnet wrote: »
    I would like to give readers the true figures from the UK for Delta Variant Deaths in the last week.

    117 total deaths.

    44 unvaccinated

    23 single dose

    50 fully vaccinated


    More people have died in the UK from the Delta variant Covid virus that have been fully vaccinated than those who have not been vaccinated at all.

    I will leave it there.

    What part of the uk population have been fully vaccinated? Those most likely to both die from Covid and most likely to have a reduced protection from the vaccine. Over 80’s have a 13.4% chance of dying from Covid. Nearly all being fully vaxxed reduces their chances of getting symptomatic Covid by 95%, but if they do, they still have high risk of dying. 5% x 13.4%= 0.67%. Unvaccinated are largely under 40 and have less than 0.1% chance of dying of Covid. That is why your numbers, though correct, are entirely misleading.


  • #767
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    This is a decent article from the UK

    Why most people who now die with Covid in England have had a vaccination
    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

    https://amp.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated?__twitter_impression=true&s=04&fbclid=IwAR2QdUHdKbebkgHNypuKHx4g0Q93-M3nKmkHzxkOrVM9sAM6ZFhzsuY3hRc


  • #768
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,445 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Phishnet wrote: »
    I would like to give readers the true figures from the UK for Delta Variant Deaths in the last week.

    117 total deaths.

    44 unvaccinated

    23 single dose

    50 fully vaccinated


    More people have died in the UK from the Delta variant Covid virus that have been fully vaccinated than those who have not been vaccinated at all.

    I will leave it there.

    Best solution at this point is to burn down the entire country.


  • #769
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,081 ✭✭✭prunudo


    The discrimination argument over the vaccine certs could be easily solved if they had implemented antigen testing here. Most European countries seem to offer the cert to vaccinated, recovering or those with negative tests.
    Now why none of this was planned for over the last 6 months is as inexcusable as nphets modeling programmes. But again the cmo seems to be the common denominator.


  • #770
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,786 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    Phishnet wrote: »
    I would like to give readers the true figures from the UK for Delta Variant Deaths in the last week.

    117 total deaths.

    44 unvaccinated

    23 single dose

    50 fully vaccinated


    More people have died in the UK from the Delta variant Covid virus that have been fully vaccinated than those who have not been vaccinated at all.

    I will leave it there.


    They haven’t died from the DElta variant.

    They have died with the delta variant.

    Big difference.


    And once again you need to realise that everyone who gets the vaccinations is going to die.


  • #771
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,786 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    Best solution at this point is to burn down the entire country.



    The lads up north will be pissed off because they are planning that on the 12th


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  • #772
    Deeper Blue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,394 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Phishnet wrote: »
    I would like to give readers the true figures from the UK for Delta Variant Deaths in the last week.

    117 total deaths.

    44 unvaccinated

    23 single dose

    50 fully vaccinated


    More people have died in the UK from the Delta variant Covid virus that have been fully vaccinated than those who have not been vaccinated at all.

    I will leave it there.


    All 50 fully vaccinated people could have been on death's door before they got the vaccine. Unless more details are given about the people involved those stats essentially mean nothing.


  • #773
    RoryMac
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,551 ✭✭✭RoryMac


    prunudo wrote: »
    The discrimination argument over the vaccine certs could be easily solved if they had implemented antigen testing here. Most European countries seem to offer the cert to vaccinated, recovering or those with negative tests.
    Now why none of this was planned for over the last 6 months is as inexcusable as nphets modeling programmes. But again the cmo seems to be the common denominator.

    Seems absolutely pointless to implement a complicated and most likely very costly system for checking vaccination or antigen test status for adults going to a restaurants or pub when we'll all be vaccinated in about 2 months.

    Far easier to have proper guidelines around numbers, social distancing, ventilation etc and allow everyone in


  • #774
    Rayne Wooney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,136 ✭✭✭✭Rayne Wooney


    IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »
    Has Tony given an indication yet of when - sometime in the future - all restrictions will be removed?

    2 months, maybe?


    August & September: 2,000 deaths

    Electric Picnic: 50,000 deaths

    Halloween: 1 million deaths

    Christmas Eve: 5 million deaths

    New Years Eve: Death of all microbial life on the island

    Restrictions will then be lifted.


  • #775
    Luke Melodic Goose-step
    Posts: 0 ✭ Luke Melodic Goose-step


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    Show me your evidence they died from covid and not with covid.

    Thanks.

    I'd like to see this too. Especially since its 117 deaths out of 62 million people.


  • #776
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,081 ✭✭✭prunudo


    RoryMac wrote: »
    Seems absolutely pointless to implement a complicated and most likely very costly system for checking vaccination or antigen test status for adults going to a restaurants or pub when we'll all be vaccinated in about 2 months.

    Far easier to have proper guidelines around numbers, social distancing, ventilation etc and allow everyone in

    Absolutely, that ship has well sailed but again its almost as if the system was designed to fail with the cmo wanting the last laugh and final say on when the dreaded pubs would reopen.


  • #777
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Phishnet wrote: »
    I would like to give readers the true figures from the UK for Delta Variant Deaths in the last week.

    117 total deaths.

    44 unvaccinated

    23 single dose

    50 fully vaccinated


    More people have died in the UK from the Delta variant Covid virus that have been fully vaccinated than those who have not been vaccinated at all.

    I will leave it there.
    Of those who were fully vaccinated who caught the Delta variant, 50 died, data from Public Health England that was published on Friday indicated.

    The figure represents almost half of the total 117 deaths associated with the variant in the UK, where Delta now represents most cases.

    But experts said this does not undermine what we know about the efficacy of the vaccines, given that the deaths come from age groups at higher risk and represent a tiny proportion of the 92,029 Delta cases analyzed.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/vaccinated-among-delta-deaths-but-older-relatively-few-uk-data-2021-6?r=US&IR=T


  • #778
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    My job certainly has been impacted.

    My primary concern are my vulnerable family and friends and I make no apologies for that.

    Cowen just after laying out the risks to vaccinated ppl from delta.
    WTF are you talking about. If you are vaccinated you are >90% protected from illness. You can live the rest of your life in a hazmat suit behind closed doors if you're unwilling to take that <10% chance.


  • #779
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,119 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Remember how defensive Sir Tony got about Antigen testing last week in front of the committee?

    He is on a crusade now. Plain as day.

    His ego won't back down.

    He's winning and he knows it.


  • #780
    CoisFharraige
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 237 ✭✭CoisFharraige


    Deeper Blue wrote: »
    All 50 fully vaccinated people could have been on death's door before they got the vaccine. Unless more details are given about the people involved those stats essentially mean nothing.

    Exactly - and as someone who works with stats, this disinformation infuriates me.

    I will put it in simple terms for you Phishnet (and supporters).

    Let's imagine a big island called Holohan Island had 1,000 people living on it. With a 95% vaccine uptake rate.

    - 950 people have a vaccine (but are not 100% protected from severe illness)
    - 50 do not have a vaccine, and are at a much, much greater risk.
    - Presume a 93% protection against severe illness and death thanks to the vaccine. 883 people live to see another day on Holohan Island. 67 (fully vaccinated) people die.
    - Presuming a 5% mortality rate in the unvaccinated population, 2-3 people will die from this unvaccinated cohort.

    So you must be more likely to die if you have a vaccine than not? Do you see the problem here? Stats can be blown up to make us believe anything, but those figures from the U.K. should be expected if almost all adults are vaccinated (ergo, if adults are going to die, the dead are likely to vaccinated since there might be a 9:1 ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated in the population). (To any stats/maths heads reading, yes, this is over-simplified)


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  • #781
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,293 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Phishnet wrote: »
    I would like to give readers the true figures from the UK for Delta Variant Deaths in the last week.

    117 total deaths.

    44 unvaccinated

    23 single dose

    50 fully vaccinated


    More people have died in the UK from the Delta variant Covid virus that have been fully vaccinated than those who have not been vaccinated at all.

    I will leave it there.

    I have posted this a couple of weeks ago on the vaccination thread. It is a trend that has been observed since February.

    Underlying material is here (table 4, page 12).

    Between Feb 1 and June 14 60,624 severe outcomes were attributed to the delta variant. Of which 73 lead to death (0.12%).

    Interesting are the vaccination cohorts in that group. 35,521 of those were unvaccinated leading to 34 deaths amongst them. Whereas 4,087 have fully vaccinated status leading to 26 deaths.

    Of course the average age of the fully vaccinated is obviously much higher than the competently unvaccinated. So it appeared that even vaccination didnt drive death rate of the old vaccinated (0.64%) below the death rate of the young unvaccinated (0.1%).

    Before anyone says those percentages still seem quite high it must be repeated this was amongst the recorded severe cases only. So I guess true IFR rates are anything between factor 10 or 20 smaller again. And then there are the undetected on top of it which could be factor 10 again after that.
    I guess thats why England expects to go ahead with the full abandonment of restrictions regardless. Overall threat assessment must be tiny.

    I've actually been wondering is this delta variant the one we've been talking about when it was said that the virus will eventually 'run out of steam' and peter out into relatively harmless strains.


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