Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

23-06-2021 10:15AM

Media spin machine in full swing this morning. It's as obvious as daylight.

I've reset my expectations now to Reopening after August Bank Holiday. FFS.

Klonker · 23-06-2021 10:16AM

seamus wrote: »

The vintners and restaurant owners won't start legal challenges, because they don't have a leg to stand on. We've been at this for 15 months, if there was a legal challenge to be brought, it'd have been brought by now.

I don't really see all this stuff about "ooh, we don't know" going anywhere, unless there's a material change in the situation here over the next 7 days. Case numbers are static, if not down, hospital and ICU numbers way down, vaccination continuing apace. If there was any major impact from the reopening on 7th June, we should have begun to see it by now.

As far as I can see, the only quarter casting doubt on 5th July is the media. Every politician is basically saying the same thing; We're still on course for 5th July, we have no reason to delay it right now, but that doesn't mean things can't change.

Based on where we are now, I would say that at most there may be some tweaks to the plan; slightly more prescriptive restrictions on indoor dining/boozing, perhaps even a suggestion that they should use/provide antigen tests before admitting customers indoors.

Right now, nobody is suggesting 5th July is under threat except the media. Even this "Delta Plus" thing is all more fearmongering. Jumping the gun. Until it's been sequenced, named the Epsilon variant AND identified as a variant of concern, then just ignore any talk about it.

I agree with you that indoor hospitality will more than likely open on 5th July but its insane that there's currently a debate on it or that it's in doubt. Cases are falling and less than 49 in hospital even though we supposedly have 20% Delta cases.

As for travel, Tony never wanted it back anything soon, will advise against it and Who'd bet on Government going against them.

Hurrache · 23-06-2021 10:16AM

seamus wrote: »

Even this "Delta Plus" thing is all more fearmongering. Jumping the gun. Until it's been sequenced, named the Epsilon variant AND identified as a variant of concern, then just ignore any talk about it.

India identified it and named it that though. Why it didn't go Echo, Epsilon etc I don't know, but it came from their government. I don't think they have much interested in how it's viewed in Ireland.

zackory · 23-06-2021 10:16AM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

By July 5th we will probably have single digits in ICU

It will be down to professor Nolans modelling, he always gets it right.

zackory · 23-06-2021 10:17AM

MOH wrote: »

Are you actually aware of stuff going on in this country?

Clearly not.

zackory · 23-06-2021 10:21AM

The €9 meal might return, that gets around the high Court case as restaurants can open July 5th on same terms as hotels

Drinking pubs remain outdoors.

Anybody else buy this theory?

Gael23 · 23-06-2021 10:22AM

Klonker wrote: »

I agree with you that indoor hospitality will more than likely open on 5th July but its insane that there's currently a debate on it or that it's on doubt. Cases are follow and less than 49 in hospital even though we supposedly have 20% Delta cases.

As for travel, Tony never wanted it back anything soon, will advise against it and Who'd bet on Government going against them.

Travel is an EU thing. There will be uproar if Ireland is the only country that doesn’t allow unrestricted travel

Allinall · 23-06-2021 10:23AM

zackory wrote: »

The €9 meal might return, that gets around the high Court case as restaurants can open July 5th on same terms as hotels

Drinking pubs remain outdoors.

Anybody else buy this theory?

Doubt it.

LuckyLloyd · 23-06-2021 10:28AM

Level 42 wrote: »

RTE want us locked down forever

You’re not locked down now, fyi.

Murph85 · 23-06-2021 10:31AM

prunudo wrote: »

I never bought into the casedemic narrative but there is a definite agenda being pushed by the media through government or interviewee soundbites over the last 48hrs to keep the fear going and encourage us not to ease restrictions yet.

It keeps those clicks and eyeballs reading...

TomSweeney · 23-06-2021 10:35AM

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-57563852

Insanity , utter insanity, fully vaccinated and 3 negative PCRs ....

Australia has lost the plot ...

seamus · 23-06-2021 10:36AM

Hurrache wrote: »

India identified it and named it that though. Why it didn't go Echo, Epsilon etc I don't know, but it came from their government. I don't think they have much interested in how it's viewed in Ireland.

Until it's got a proper name, we can ignore it.
India has brought it up, the media are all over it, the actual scientists are saying it's too early to tell anything. India have declared it a variant of concern. Nobody else is convinced yet.

So, best ignored until the WHO or another supranational body recognise it as significant. You'd be tied up in knots getting worried about every variant identified.

In terms of travel, as has been well pointed out here, everywhere still has restrictions on travel.

We've proven ourselves piss poor at restricting travel and I don't really see that changing. We'll stick with the EU Digital cert programme and then red list a pile of countries that don't even have direct flights to the island of Ireland.

Stormyteacup · 23-06-2021 10:37AM

seamus wrote: »

Right now, nobody is suggesting 5th July is under threat except the media. Even this "Delta Plus" thing is all more fearmongering. Jumping the gun. Until it's been sequenced, named the Epsilon variant AND identified as a variant of concern, then just ignore any talk about it.

The media is reporting 5th July under threat but the suggestion is coming from ministers and public health officials.

From IT this morning;

‘If cases rise political sources expect advice to delay the reopening, and there would be little resistance to such a recommendation. The fear in Government is Delta could account for 40 per cent of cases next week, and 60-70 per cent the following week. Currently it accounts for 20 per cent of cases.’

The advice from NPHET will almost definitely be to delay imo. The question is whether government will once more accept this advice or press ahead. Much more on the line for government this time - appetite for caution is waning.

gozunda · 23-06-2021 10:37AM

Graham wrote: »

4 million?

Yes. Add 2 plus what ever number you have in your head plus the number of cars passing T any given moment - then use that figure to prove whatever point you want.

Fairly simple really tbf Graham. You know basic stuff ....

Klonker · 23-06-2021 10:39AM

Gael23 wrote: »

Travel is an EU thing. There will be uproar if Ireland is the only country that doesn’t allow unrestricted travel

I know but we are currently only 3 weeks behind official date and we can delay another 3 and still be in the 6 week window.

Plus if it came to following NPHET advice or the EU guidelines who do you think our Government would follow currently? I know who my money would be on.

TomSweeney · 23-06-2021 10:40AM

haha

wiki page hacked for the chief health officer of QLD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeannette_Young

Klonker · 23-06-2021 10:41AM

So can all the NPHET supporters on here agree that if we are in similar position or better this time next week as now it would be ridiculous for NPHET to advise to delay opening indoor hospitality? Like where is your line that you'd actually disagree with them?

bear1 · 23-06-2021 10:42AM

The government is like a flag. Waving back and forth.
Delay variant, omega variant, alpha variant. It's like a stupid resident evil saga.
For a country with so little cases I'm amazed they are considering this at all.
Meanwhile in Italy, from the 28th you don't need a mask outside and from the 1st of July no PCR tests to travel if you're vaccinated.
Bunch of cowboys we have.

seamus · 23-06-2021 10:45AM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

The media is reporting 5th July under threat but the suggestion is coming from ministers and public health officials.

"If cases rise". And the IT says that's from "political sources". Could be Mattie McGrath for all we know.

Changes to the plans have always been subject to "if cases rise", so that's not anything new.

The proportion of cases being Delta, is going to continue rising. That's how variants work. The only thing that's important is the overall trajectory.

So if we've 4,000 cases last week, 20% Delta, and 3,000 cases this week, 40% Delta, then we're still in a great place.

It's when the cases are rising and the proportions changing that we need to be concerned.

"Concern about the rise in the proportion of variant X" is deliberate obfuscation to make it sound like cases are actually rising. Tony is not above using language in this way to try and communicate the need for caution. It's well-intentioned, but it's a mistake IMO.

MOH · 23-06-2021 10:46AM

zackory wrote: »

It will be down to professor Nolans modelling, he always gets it right.

Yep, total accuracy.
Unless they have somebody else also doing modelling it was presumably his work Glynn was using here

He agreed with the Tánaiste Leo Varadkar in his warning that it will now be very hard to get daily figures below 500 because of the UK variant.

“I think, given the transmissibility of the virus, it will be a challenge, a very significant challenge, to get it lower,” he said.

“I am not naive. I am not saying that we will or even that it is likely that we will.

“It is a difficult thing to keep a disease like this at any number without it rising so the challenge is not alone to get it down but the challenge equally is to keep it at 500 or 600 cases a day.”

That was March 26th. By the end of the next week cases were below 500 and have pretty much stayed below 450 since.

(Obviously that might be doing Nolan a disservice, it's entirely possible Glynn was just making up numbers out of thin air).

zackory · 23-06-2021 10:47AM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

The advice from NPHET will almost definitely be to delay imo. The question is whether government will once more accept this advice or press ahead. Much more on the line for government this time - appetite for caution is waning.

That is why I am going for the €9 meal route again. The government can spin it as a partial reopening as planned and at the same time it doesn't make them go against Holohan.

"Hotel restaurants have been open since June 2nd, there have been few associated cases so we know restaurants will be safe"

Of course it will be abused as always but they can pretend that its not happening.

Ballynally · 23-06-2021 10:48AM

Klonker wrote: »

As for travel, Tony never wanted it back anything soon, will advise against it and Who'd bet on Government going against them.

That is why it was a smart move to set July19 as the date for international travel. It came before EU recommending july 1st so the government could not be criticised like they would have if they did it after the EU recommendation.
It is also, if i may speculate a date that the government may use as the delayed opening time for july 5, using the all in at once approach w the Delta variant fear factor as backup, like they did in the UK.
Adding two more weeks the country could accept.
Better to be safe than sorry, you know the story, shots in arms, Delta nrs, new variants..

corcaigh07 · 23-06-2021 10:49AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-57563852

Insanity , utter insanity, fully vaccinated and 3 negative PCRs ....

Australia has lost the plot ...

Whatever about Ireland, that's ****ed.

TomSweeney · 23-06-2021 11:01AM

corcaigh07 wrote: »

Whatever about Ireland, that's ****ed.

I honestly think Australia will never open their borders again.

Whatsisname · 23-06-2021 11:06AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-57563852

Insanity , utter insanity, fully vaccinated and 3 negative PCRs ....

Australia has lost the plot ...

Australia went off the deep end. They seem to continually be living in March 2020 everytime they find a new case.

Theres been countless stories like this. They recently stopped a woman from seeing her new born even after her and her husband were fully vaccinated and tested negative twice. They've banned people in quarantine hotels from going outside for fresh air. They locked down 2 apartment blocks full of elderly who weren't able to get their medication with armed police outside. You have Melbourne's Premier saying things like "human lives, not human rights" which is pretty frightening. 2 elderly women were surrounded by the police for daring to sit on a bench outside during one of their several lockdowns. There was another where they refused to transfer 4 new born babies to the next state for cardiac health and they ended up dying. And they're talking about borders staying closed until mid 2022, all this happens while celebrities can fly in on their private jets without any issues.

NZ is just the same. They launched a full on national inquest when 1 guy tested positive. Put his info over the newspapers, where he went at what time of day, who he saw, where he worked, what college he attends, you'd swear he was a serial killer on the run.

Both countries are absolutely insane.

growleaves · 23-06-2021 11:11AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-australia-57563852

Insanity , utter insanity, fully vaccinated and 3 negative PCRs ....

Australia has lost the plot ...

Very wicked. The danger is theoretical and based on layers of hypothetical assumptions in the first place, it's not some kind of imminent danger.

In the past in this country some people chose to starve to death rather than be separated from their families by going into separate workhouses.

If you collaborate with this you are throwing away your soul. You are guilty.

TomSweeney · 23-06-2021 11:12AM

Whatsisname wrote: »

Australia went off the deep end. They seem to continually be living in March 2020 everytime they find a new case.

Theres been countless stories like this. They recently stopped a woman from seeing her new born even after her and her husband were fully vaccinated and tested negative twice. They've banned people in quarantine hotels from going outside for fresh air. They locked down 2 apartment blocks full of elderly who weren't able to get their medication with armed police outside. You have Melbourne's Premier saying things like "human lives, not human rights" which is pretty frightening. 2 elderly women were surrounded by the police for daring to sit on a bench outside during one of their several lockdowns. There was another where they refused to transfer 4 new born babies to the next state for cardiac health and they ended up dying. And they're talking about borders staying closed until mid 2022, all this happens while celebrities can fly in on their private jets without any issues.

NZ is just the same. They launched a full on national inquest when 1 guy tested positive. Put his face on newspapers, where he went at what time of day, who he saw, where he worked, what college he attends, you'd swear he was a serial killer on the run.

Both countries are absolutely insane.

Not to mention the media are enabling this **** by saying things like "Massive outbreak of deadly new variant in Sydney" ... and then you read on to see there has been 11 cases.

I mean, BEAM ME UP SCOTTY!!!

Ballynally · 23-06-2021 11:12AM

seamus wrote: »

"If cases rise". And the IT says that's from "political sources". Could be Mattie McGrath for all we know.

Changes to the plans have always been subject to "if cases rise", so that's not anything new.

The proportion of cases being Delta, is going to continue rising. That's how variants work. The only thing that's important is the overall trajectory.

So if we've 4,000 cases last week, 20% Delta, and 3,000 cases this week, 40% Delta, then we're still in a great place.

It's when the cases are rising and the proportions changing that we need to be concerned.

"Concern about the rise in the proportion of variant X" is deliberate obfuscation to make it sound like cases are actually rising. Tony is not above using language in this way to try and communicate the need for caution. It's well-intentioned, but it's a mistake IMO.

Amen. The X factor is something like this: rise in % of Delta variant= alert/fear. Cases stay stable=we are ok at the moment but stay alert/fear. Cases rise= fear/delay in lifting restrictions until july 19, freedom day.
Before Freedom day on july 15 cases still rising as does the % of Delta variant= further delay.
At any point in this trajectory the actual nr of cases will not matter much, let alone hospital nrs. It will be mainly proof that they were right all along. The media will play their usual part.
Meanwhile in the rest of Europe..

suicide_circus · 23-06-2021 11:16AM

Wonder will lockdowns be used for reasons other than covid;

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/21/flu-could-be-a-bigger-problem-than-covid-in-uk-this-winter

20-30 thousand people die from flu annually in the UK - lockdown would save these lives. The precedent has been set - lockdowns are a legitimate and effective tool in a government's toolkit. Not only that, lockdowns enjoy widespread public support.

seamus · 23-06-2021 11:16AM

Whatsisname wrote: »

Both countries are absolutely insane.

It's why they have two of the lowest body counts in the world.

It's an approach they can afford to take.

And as heartless as it can seem at times, it's when you make exceptions that the infection manages to get a foothold in the country.

Such an approach would be insane for us at our current vaccination levels, but Oz and NZ are nowhere near protected, so they have to continue like it's June 2020, regardless of the vaccination or PCR status of the person travelling.

Many, many, many, many people across the world have had family die and no way to go back and see them. It's a sh1t state of affairs, but it's a pandemic. Sob stories like this one are no justification for making exceptions. Their circumstances are heart breaking, but not special.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings