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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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    #9362
    JDD
    Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭JDD


    ginoginelli wrote: »
    Elements of the goverment are still trying to pull the wool over are eyes with comments that they could never foresee this.

    Absolute rubbish. I spoke to a head nurse during the summer as well as my own gp back in april and they both highlighted January/February as the time they were most fearful about. This seemed to be the general consensus throughout the medical field and beyond.

    The lack of real leadership is literally killing us now.

    They were fearful because that's when hospitals are full with flu patients and other general winter illnesses in a normal year, and they knew we would have no additional capacity if we had even a moderate outbreak of covid.

    Come October, the news from Australia and South America was that there were virtually no flu cases because of social distancing and masks and WFH.

    And the same panned out here - virtually no flu cases in hospitals in December. So you can see why the government thought that they could absorb a steady rise in cases - the likes of which happened in September/October - and would have time to get the case numbers back down again.

    I don't think anyone, even in the medical community, would have predicted that case numbers would rise at the exponential rate that they are now, with masks, traditional pubs closed and a large proportion of the workforce WFH. NPHET themselves say that the cases are rising at a faster rate that even their worst case scenario modelling had predicted.


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    #9363
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,355 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Hospitals have another week at least of rising admissions, ICU probably more, hopefully though the tide is starting to turn.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Options
    #9364
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Presumably you'll be able to give some example of this alleged double standard?

    Already did. Highlighting was the point of my post. I’ll leave it there.


  • Options
    #9365
    Probes
    Registered Users Posts: 466 ✭✭Probes


    I don't know how to put this any other way, but 135,000 vaccinated by the end of Feb is really, really disappointing.


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    #9366
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Yes, good news?

    I still don't know if the Christmas wave of cases has passed the testing stage or yet to be processed.
    What we're processing now are the people who caught it off people who were postive around Xmas day.

    Any dip is to be welcomed, especially in positivity rate. Dr. Holohan today remarked that average close contacts were down to around 4 now, which is also good.

    Today's numbers though reflect swabs taken on Sunday. Tomorrow's numbers are a better bellweather as these include a lot of people who put off ringing the GP with symptoms until Monday morning.

    IF (big if) people adjusted their behaviour after Xmas and before NYE, then this could be the start of a better trend. Some of today's data is encouraging. But it's too early to be hopeful.
    There is also a surge of ICU admissions and deaths to be expected over the coming weeks.
    Probes wrote: »
    I don't know how to put this any other way, but 135,000 vaccinated by the end of Feb is really, really disappointing.
    They're sandbagging. Their figures are always an low estimate to avoid looking stupid. We've just got a "surprise" shipment of vaccines this week brining us from 20,000 to 35,000.
    Whatever figure the government give between now and June is a minimum. 135,000 is the minimum that will be done. They don't want to commit to numbers they might not achieve.


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    #9367
    ax530
    Registered Users Posts: 467 ✭✭ax530


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    Lets hope we have past the peak of infection now, lets pray for rapid decline over next 2 weeks so schools can reopen on 1 February
    I really hope so.
    Thinking about it most people should not have any 'close contacts' outside home since the 29th of Dec.
    Obviously with numbers so so high recently will take a long time to reverse it to managable numbers for health service & contract tracing.
    But I expect the bulk of those exposed over Christmas week will now know and be isolated. No doubt some people did not pay heed and have met up over NY so perhaps it will not be all downwards for the next week.
    Lesson for the stories of spread over Christmas may be if we can meet people for lunch, dinner ect again in Feb, March always ask them - are you waiting on test restuls or have you been tested positive.


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    #9368
    Ficheall
    Registered Users Posts: 9,027 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Already did. Highlighting was the point of my post. I’ll leave it there.
    You did not. How about you give an example instead of worming away?


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    #9369
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users Posts: 870 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    Everyone knows of Typhoid Mary and she became somewhat of a household name. Its mad that 100 years later there are lots of people still doing the same thing by socialising while waiting for tests / after a positive case.

    ...albeit they probably won't be put in quarantine for 30 years


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    #9370
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Probes wrote: »
    I don't know how to put this any other way, but 135,000 vaccinated by the end of Feb is really, really disappointing.

    Agreed. If its purely a supply issue nothing we can do. But I'm fairly sure it isnt.


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    #9371
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,371 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    The tide is turning lads. Most close contacts I know of have fibbed to their GP about having symptoms to get tested. There is nothing stopping you getting a test if you want one

    The conditions that led to the surge a week ago are gone. No one is having dinner with family this week. The pubs are closed and most opportunities for community transmission are gone.

    I have driven 700km across 2 counties in the year 2021 so far. A total of 0 checkpoints but the roads are busy. Perhaps it may be an idea to enforce the existing rules rather than bringing in new ones. Closing all construction at this stage may not be worth the benefits


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    #9372
    Eivor
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭Eivor


    bennyl10 wrote: »
    The numbers of tests dropping is the thing.

    We should be testing more and then pos % changes with that..

    Are the numbers of tests dropping?


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    #9373
    JDD
    Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭JDD


    seamus wrote: »

    They're sandbagging. Their figures are always an low estimate to avoid looking stupid. We've just got a "surprise" shipment of vaccines this week brining us from 20,000 to 35,000.
    Whatever figure the government give between now and June is a minimum. 135,000 is the minimum that will be done. They don't want to commit to numbers they might not achieve.

    That's quite an amount of sandbagging. Say they are saying 135,000 but in fact expect to do double that, or 270,000 - which would be quite a jump -it will take 18 months to vaccinate everyone, or more pertinently, six months to vaccinate all over 70's.

    Do you think that they are saying 135,000 but actually expect to do 500,000? Because that's how much we need to be doing in order to have all over 70's and health care workers vaccinated by the start of May.


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    #9374
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,233 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    froog wrote: »
    Agreed. If its purely a supply issue nothing we can do. But I'm fairly sure it isnt.

    Was watching Sky News earlier, a report of why are Israel doing so well on the vaccination progress.
    There was drive in vaccinations; if any vaccine was left over after the scheduled appts, message given out, first come first served.

    Basically, seems like shortage is not an issue. They have doses to spare.

    Yet I don't know how they managed to get so much doses.
    That question was not really addressed.

    Israel has a population of around 9 million.


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    #9375
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Eivor wrote: »
    Are the numbers of tests dropping?

    Yes down 5-7 thousand today


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    #9376
    RebelButtMunch
    Registered Users Posts: 2,378 ✭✭✭RebelButtMunch


    Will Yam wrote: »
    Between Christmas and new year?

    +1 over christmas and new year and that was my dad. I met my sisters and friends at the end of their and mine driveways.


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    #9377
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,599 Mod ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Eivor wrote: »
    Are the numbers of tests dropping?

    Yes. Today is the first time we are under 20k tests in a while. Yesterday was just over 20k and the day before was 28k.

    I think it's due to the end of close contact testing.


  • Options
    #9378
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,233 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Eivor wrote: »
    Are the numbers of tests dropping?

    Tests.png


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    #9379
    lukas8888
    Registered Users Posts: 516 ✭✭✭lukas8888


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Presumably you'll be able to give some example of this alleged double standard?

    Presumably you'll indulge us with a few examples of you calling out his bs.


  • Options
    #9380
    Eivor
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭Eivor


    Stheno wrote: »
    Yes down 5-7 thousand today

    I wonder why that is? Are we running out of them? Surely they should’ve never stopped increasing the testing capacity from the start


  • Options
    #9381
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,599 Mod ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Was watching Sky News earlier, a report of why are Israel doing so well on the vaccination progress.
    There was drive in vaccinations; if any vaccine was left over after the scheduled appts, message given out, first come first served.

    Basically, seems like shortage is not an issue. They have doses to spare.

    Yet I don't know how they managed to get so much doses.
    That question was not really addressed.

    Israel has a population of around 9 million.

    Hey Pfizer you know xxx. They were supposed to get 10k doses in December but they haven't approved yet. Give us their doses and they can catch up later.


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    #9382
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    Hey Pfizer you know xxx. They were supposed to get 10k doses in December but they haven't approved yet. Give us their doses and they can catch up later.

    And we'll pay four times the going rate


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    #9383
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    Yes. Today is the first time we are under 20k tests in a while. Yesterday was just over 20k and the day before was 28k.

    I think it's due to the end of close contact testing.

    I wonder how they'll balance the test capacity. Assuming those with symptoms doesnt reach 25-28,000 per day, hopefully, and with a blanket "no contacts" rule, we may not reach capacity. Wonder could they limit contacts? As in, tell us the 3 people you were most in contact with? Not ideal but better than nothing, I guess.


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    #9384
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,599 Mod ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Eivor wrote: »
    I wonder why that is? Are we running out of them? Surely they should’ve never stopped increasing the testing capacity from the start

    They announced a policy to stop testing close contacts 4 days ago. They didn't cancel tests that's for close contacts that were already booked.

    The effect of close contact testing stopping only hit the system between today and yesterday.


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    #9385
    Phil.x
    Registered Users Posts: 1,723 ✭✭✭Phil.x


    Just back from having the test in swords, huge respect to the irish army getting stuck in with the testing. The place was so busy, an endless supply of people going through the doors.


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    #9386
    SpacialNeeds
    Registered Users Posts: 203 ✭✭SpacialNeeds


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Was watching Sky News earlier, a report of why are Israel doing so well on the vaccination progress.
    There was drive in vaccinations; if any vaccine was left over after the scheduled appts, message given out, first come first served.

    Basically, seems like shortage is not an issue. They have doses to spare.

    Yet I don't know how they managed to get so much doses.
    That question was not really addressed.

    Israel has a population of around 9 million.
    ₪₪₪


  • Options
    #9387
    Drumpot
    Registered Users Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Stheno wrote: »
    Yes down 5-7 thousand today

    Honestly I was under the impression our testing and tracing is all over the place and now that they have amended the rules (in terms of testing and what quantifies a close contact) that we really cant rely on testing to tell us much while numbers are so high. I thought this was pretty much what NEPHET were saying that they know all they need to know so our testing is relatively redundant while numbers are so high ?

    Can we take much from todays swabs ? (Honest question, I haven't been following tests/swabs as intimately as many on here).


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    #9388
    Drumpot
    Registered Users Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    JDD wrote: »
    That's quite an amount of sandbagging. Say they are saying 135,000 but in fact expect to do double that, or 270,000 - which would be quite a jump -it will take 18 months to vaccinate everyone, or more pertinently, six months to vaccinate all over 70's.

    Do you think that they are saying 135,000 but actually expect to do 500,000? Because that's how much we need to be doing in order to have all over 70's and health care workers vaccinated by the start of May.

    When I started working with my dad he referred to it as "under promise and over deliver" . ;)


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    #9389
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Was watching Sky News earlier, a report of why are Israel doing so well on the vaccination progress.
    There was drive in vaccinations; if any vaccine was left over after the scheduled appts, message given out, first come first served.

    Basically, seems like shortage is not an issue. They have doses to spare.

    Yet I don't know how they managed to get so much doses.
    That question was not really addressed.

    Israel has a population of around 9 million.

    Israeli PM contacted pharma boss directly and had a chat


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    #9390
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    JDD wrote: »
    That's quite an amount of sandbagging. Say they are saying 135,000 but in fact expect to do double that, or 270,000 - which would be quite a jump -it will take 18 months to vaccinate everyone, or more pertinently, six months to vaccinate all over 70's.
    This is all in the implementation plan. We know rollout will initially be slow due to supply constraints and then will ramp considerably. If we do 270,000 doses in January-February, then we would expect to ramp up and do 500,000 doses in March-April. And then 1,000,000 doses over May-June, etc.
    Do you think that they are saying 135,000 but actually expect to do 500,000? Because that's how much we need to be doing in order to have all over 70's and health care workers vaccinated by the start of May.
    I'm saying they're expecting at least 135,000 fully vaccinated by the end of February and potentially another 50k-100k first doses done too.
    We can expect this vaccination programme to consistently underpromise and overdeliver until the end of the Summer.


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    #9391
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Honestly I was under the impression our testing and tracing is all over the place and now that they have amended the rules (in terms of testing and what quantifies a close contact) that we really cant rely on testing to tell us much while numbers are so high. I thought this was pretty much what NEPHET were saying that they know all they need to know so our testing is relatively redundant while numbers are so high ?

    Can we take much from todays swabs ? (Honest question, I haven't been following tests/swabs as intimately as many on here).

    Testing seems to be very efficient
    Its verifying that positive swabs are not duplicate results that is the issue


This discussion has been closed.
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