Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

podgeandrodge · 25-10-2020 10:10PM

Catching up.

Have they explained yet why shops can't stay open when it's mass gatherings and spending long time in confined spaces that they say is causing it?

25-10-2020 10:10PM

I dont know if this has been mentioned before, but where my relatives live near the border, Tinder has been running as normal. Young and not so young going over and back to Strabane and Derry and vice versa. Its hard to police that when there are approx 12 ways to cross the border in that region.

hmmm · 25-10-2020 10:11PM

political analyst wrote: »

Prof. Edgar Morgenroth wrote this article.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40070780.html

Not great in my opinion. There's posters on here making much better arguments against Level 5 restrictions.

"For example, it is hard to justify why you cannot stand in your garden with someone not from your household, while it is okay to walk with them past your house. Does the virus spread more in gardens? "

People meeting in gardens turns into "can I use the bathroom" and "it's started to rain sure bring your tea inside". This has been discussed before.

Ficheall · 25-10-2020 10:12PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Where is Sam McConkey's 5000 daily cases for Dublin by Halloween? That's right, nowhere. The fact that the media are keeping him on as a talking head speaks volumes. Level 3 is good enough, let us hundreds of thousands get back to work and achieve some semblance of a Christmas. We're stuck with this virus until a vaccine is market ready, like it or lump it.

You mean the 5000 cases a day he warned of "if they remained on the [then]-current trajectory"? I'm pretty sure he didn't do any crystal ball ouija board stuff - he just plugged the numbers into a simple mathematical formula, using the same exponential growth rate at which the numbers had been growing.

Here, I'm guessing, based on a brief glance at a graph of infections per 100k at the time and some quick calculations, is approximately the formula he used:
5.44*100(1+0.37)^7=4927.
(5.44 times the 100k for pop of dublin, 100 cases on the day he made the call, 0.37 weekly growth rate at the time - seems to be roughly in keeping with the increase from the preceding week or two-, and 7 weeks in the future.

A few days AFTER that, the Level 3 restrictions, which you're advocating we return to, were introduced, and did indeed reduce the rate of growth. Whether his fears would have come to pass without any restrictions, I don't know, but had the cases increased at the same rate, as he said, then his plugging the numbers into a formula seem reasonably accurate.

What calculations had you made in the middle of September, assuming zero intervention, that made McConkey's so risible?

hmmm · 25-10-2020 10:14PM

Ficheall wrote: »

You mean the 5000 cases a day he warned of "if they remained on the [then]-current trajectory"? I'm pretty sure he didn't do any crystal ball ouija board stuff - he just plugged the numbers into a simple mathematical formula, using the same exponential growth rate at which the numbers had been growing.

Same poster will be back in a few weeks asking "why did we not see all the deaths we were told about?" and speculating whether the Irish version of Covid is uniquely weaker than all the other strains.

Boggles · 25-10-2020 10:15PM

manniot2 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/martin-feeley-hospital-admissions-don-t-justify-pressing-the-panic-button-1.4390870

WoollyRedHat · 25-10-2020 10:22PM

People who are saying our restrictions are extreme may have a point if it wasn't surging in several countries across Europe, including hospitalizations and ICU admissions. But it is, so our cautious approach has so far been proven right. But it will all be for naught if the government/ HSE don't get their **** together in the meantime.

WoollyRedHat · 25-10-2020 10:25PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

In other countries there are similar or worse mistakes.
I am based in Italy, and we have ours.

Doesn't mean we should try to emulate them.

WoollyRedHat · 25-10-2020 10:27PM

Fred Cryton wrote: »

The debacle over botched PPE from China - he ordered it

The recent scandal over telling people to do their own contact tracing - he's the man in charge

The utter waste of millions of taxpayer money on dodgy hand santizer - buck stops with him.

How is this man who didn't graduate secondary school in charge of a €20bn health budget? Telling us "its a pandemic" is not good enough, these mistakes are not happening in other countries. He's a spoofer and a chancer and totally out of his depth.

He previously was CEO of Eircom, another World Class institution.

Bubbaclaus · 25-10-2020 10:27PM

Fred Cryton wrote: »

The debacle over botched PPE from China - he ordered it

The recent scandal over telling people to do their own contact tracing - he's the man in charge

The utter waste of millions of taxpayer money on dodgy hand santizer - buck stops with him.

How is this man who didn't graduate secondary school in charge of a €20bn health budget? Telling us "its a pandemic" is not good enough, these mistakes are not happening in other countries. He's a spoofer and a chancer and totally out of his depth.

Can't see how the PPE and hand sanitizer can be blamed on him under any sort of logical argument.

Polar101 · 25-10-2020 10:29PM

317 in hospitals and 37 in ICU - in the north. Almost identical numbers with the Republic.

WoollyRedHat · 25-10-2020 10:31PM

Anyone know what our 14-day incidence rate now stands at?

KennisWhale · 25-10-2020 10:31PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I dont know if this has been mentioned before, but where my relatives live near the border, Tinder has been running as normal. Young and not so young going over and back to Strabane and Derry and vice versa. Its hard to police that when there are approx 12 ways to cross the border in that region.

Puritan-advocating extremist view in this post.

It's so bizarre how all the extremist nutjobs come out in this thread, using covid as an excuse to spout such sh1te.

BrianD3 · 25-10-2020 10:31PM

Just looked at his wikipedia page, is someone having a laugh with the below line

In 2005, Reid began his second job working for Eircom as an underground cable jointer and later qualified as a technician.

So in a mere 15 years he went from the above to being the best paid public servant in the country (350k p.a.) in an organisation of over 100k employees which needs a massive amount of reform. I don't know whether to be impressed or appalled.

AFAIK he was highly thought of when CE of Fingal County Council, his most recent job before the HSE. However there is clearly a world of difference between those two roles.

SEPT 23 1989 · 25-10-2020 10:32PM

It's the working class Dublin accent that annoys you the most

Right?

the_syco · 25-10-2020 10:32PM

Fred Cryton wrote: »

How is this man who didn't graduate secondary school

He did his Inter Cert, and then got an apprenticeship with Eircom at 16. I doubt many kids would do their Leaving Cert in Finglas back then!

bb1234567 · 25-10-2020 10:34PM

Polar101 wrote: »

317 in hospitals and 37 in ICU - in the north. Almost identical numbers with the Republic.

But basically the equivalent of 950 in hospital here and 110 in ICU, so NI is basically at exactly our April peak already. Despite similar case loads, means they are missing a lot of cases that we are not, or else vulnerable northern irish people are not isolating as much as southerners

Witcher · 25-10-2020 10:34PM

BrianD3 wrote: »

Just looked at his wikipedia page, is someone having a laugh with the below line

So in a mere 15 years he went from the above to being the best paid public servant in the country (350k p.a.) in an organisation of over 100k employees which needs a massive amount of reform. I don't know whether to be impressed or appalled.

AFAIK he was highly thought of when CE of Fingal County Council, his most recent job before the HSE. However there is clearly a world of difference between those two roles.

Conveniently left out this bit;

By the time he left Eircom in 2010, he was Executive Director of Networks and Operations.

He didn't exactly go straight from splicing cables to management in the HSE.

Stheno · 25-10-2020 10:34PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Anyone know what our 14-day incidence rate now stands at?

307.5 per 100k of population

fleet_admiral · 25-10-2020 10:35PM

Pay monkeys get peanuts

Stheno · 25-10-2020 10:35PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

But basically the equivalent of 950 in hospital here and 110 in ICU, so NI is basically at exactly our April peak already. Despite similar case loads, means they are missing a lot of cases that we are not, or else vulnerable northern irish people are not isolating as much as southerners

They are still at 20% positivity

costacorta · 25-10-2020 10:36PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Doesn't mean we should try to emulate them.

But you just said it wouldn’t happen in any other country ??

BringBackMick · 25-10-2020 10:36PM

Anyone seen the recent tweets from Gardai twitter showing closed off clothing sections?

It is quite incredible what we have allowed happen in this country

Literally our law enforcement putting out propaganda boasting they have shut down places selling clothing in late autumn

How did we let this happen?

Are we that brain washed? It is really scary

robbiezero · 25-10-2020 10:36PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

I think people are going to hit the road anyway no matter what Teflon Holohan says

I definitely will be anyway.

circadian · 25-10-2020 10:37PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I dont know if this has been mentioned before, but where my relatives live near the border, Tinder has been running as normal. Young and not so young going over and back to Strabane and Derry and vice versa. Its hard to police that when there are approx 12 ways to cross the border in that region.

If you were from Derry you'd know this isn't true at all. Majella down the street knows all your goings on and it'd be all over facebook.

Witcher · 25-10-2020 10:38PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

Anyone seen the recent tweets from Gardai twitter showing closed off clothing sections?

It is quite incredible what we have allowed happen in this country

Literally our law enforcement putting out propaganda boasting they have shut down places selling clothing in late autumn

How did we let this happen?

Are we that brain washed? It is really scary

The Gardai didn't shut them down, they were checking compliance. Nice try though.

Amzie · 25-10-2020 10:40PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

Anyone seen the recent tweets from Gardai twitter showing closed off clothing sections?

It is quite incredible what we have allowed happen in this country

Literally our law enforcement putting out propaganda boasting they have shut down places selling clothing in late autumn

How did we let this happen?

Are we that brain washed? It is really scary

I didn't see the tweet but I don't know whats different now with this lockdown than the last one that they can't sell clothes plus not all people can shop online..this seems very wrong..surely warm clothes are essential..especially baby kids clothes.

jackboy · 25-10-2020 10:41PM

political analyst wrote: »

Why will the government not listen to Dr Martin Feeley, whose article 'manniot2' linked on this thread in post 5372.

One interesting thing Feeley said, all this waiting for a vaccine which may reduce the death rate from about 0.25% to about 0.125%.

Jim_Hodge · 25-10-2020 10:42PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

Anyone seen the recent tweets from Gardai twitter showing closed off clothing sections?

It is quite incredible what we have allowed happen in this country

Literally our law enforcement putting out propaganda boasting they have shut down places selling clothing in late autumn

How did we let this happen?

Are we that brain washed? It is really scary

Shock and horror. The Gardaí are checking on compliance with government health rules. You'd also complain if they didn't.

You obviously vehemently oppose the latest restrictions but we just have to get on with it - nobody's enjoying this year.

political analyst · 25-10-2020 10:44PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

People who are saying our restrictions are extreme may have a point if it wasn't surging in several countries across Europe, including hospitalizations and ICU admissions. But it is, so our cautious approach has so far been proven right. But it will all be for naught if the government/ HSE don't get their **** together in the meantime.

That's what the HSE's winter plan is for.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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