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Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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Comments

  • #4442
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,634 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Think the max possible number today if they include the backlog of 200 is roughly 1100

    The positive cases are up to midnight last night, I'm sure they can ask for some of today's cases if they wanted to get a higher number! Would be stretching it though. Serves no purpose.

    With the bank holiday, we won't have the swab details till Tuesday, I hate this flying blind into the announcement at 6ish with case numbers.


  • #4443
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,630 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    The only thing level 3 done (or looks to be doing) is slowing the growth rate and eventually perhaps lower cases. But it's far too slow doing it.
    What it shows (we wouldn't have known if the government didn't try level 3) is that it's possible to open up straight to level 3 eventually and they should have data now to see how long we can sustain level 3.

    It wasn't that slow having an impact though. We started to see the stability and fall from Sunday onwards, just about 12 days after nationwide level 3. That's when you'd expect to see its effects. But I do agree level 3 won't see cases fall quickly.


  • #4444
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,760 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    GazzaL wrote: »
    Level 3 worked, yet they ****ed the whole country into level 5. #ThanksTony
    90% of residents and all but one nursing staff in nursing home test positive for Covid-19, Dáil told

    it did? tell them https://www.thejournal.ie/nursing-home-cases-5241138-Oct2020/


  • #4445
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,630 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Blondini wrote: »
    I love positivity about numbers but I think the celebrations are a little too early.

    It's a full 7 days of improvement. I wouldn't be celebrating anything but the trend is firmly established.


  • #4446
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I wouldn't go dissing level 5 just yet. 4 weeks of it could seriously seriously reduce the case numbers, more than initially thought.

    They are to review after four weeks of level 5 which is mid November


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  • #4447
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,634 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    It wasn't that slow having an impact though. We started to see the stability and fall from Sunday onwards, just about 12 days after nationwide level 3. That's when you'd expect to see its effects. But I do agree level 3 won't see cases fall quickly.
    It had weird effects in Dublin, took 5 weeks and it's still up and down in Dublin. Can be plenty of reasons for that though. It can also be a painfully slow start and then drop quicker. We have no idea. Like many countries, we're winging it!

    The 7 day positivity dropping is a really encouraging sign though, can't argue with that.


  • #4448
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,630 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    It had weird effects in Dublin, took 5 weeks and it's still up and down in Dublin. Can be plenty of reasons for that though. It can also be a painfully slow start and then drop quicker. We have no idea. Like many countries, we're winging it!

    The 7 day positivity dropping is a really encouraging sign though, can't argue with that.

    I don't think what happened in Dublin was that weird (in hindsight). Rates in Meath, for example, were increasing massively and that inevitably spread to Dublin.


  • #4449
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Stheno wrote: »
    They are to review after four weeks of level 5 which is mid November

    It'll be the usual, ah but if we wait 2 more weeks it will even lower...then there will be rumbling if we get it down to 50-80 cases a day, oh maybe we should go for eradication? If we just hold on till after Christmas.....

    Be prepared


  • #4450
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    It had weird effects in Dublin, took 5 weeks and it's still up and down in Dublin. Can be plenty of reasons for that though. It can also be a painfully slow start and then drop quicker. We have no idea. Like many countries, we're winging it!

    The 7 day positivity dropping is a really encouraging sign though, can't argue with that.

    The ban on household visits was the key to bringing the r below 1.0

    It was bumping around 1.0-1.3, banning household visits brought it to 0.8


  • #4451
    Benimar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,794 ✭✭✭Benimar


    Positive swab numbers have leveled off. Average over last week is 1025 per day. High was 1152 and low was 902.

    That would tend to suggest that Level 3 slows and eventually stops growth, but an average case count per day of 1000 isn’t sustainable.

    Hopefully Level 5 drives figures down but way too early to tell.


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  • #4452
    Zebra3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,165 ✭✭✭✭Zebra3


    suicide_circus wrote: »
    How many deaths a day are we averaging now

    Don't be asking questions like that!!!

    Focus on case numbers, focus on potential deaths, and say "the next two weeks will be critical".

    Just no critical thinking!!!


  • #4453
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,634 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    The ban on household visits was the key to bringing the r below 1.0

    It was bumping around 1.0-1.3, banning household visits brought it to 0.8

    It's very hard to get to grips, we've had so many changes over the past few weeks between level 3 for Dublin and Donegal, then 4 for Donegal, then household visits banned. Hopefully they can analyse all the data and find out what measures work effectively and we can try do up a living with covid plan lol.


  • #4454
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,630 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Benimar wrote: »
    Positive swab numbers have leveled off. Average over last week is 1025 per day. High was 1152 and low was 902.

    That would tend to suggest that Level 3 slows and eventually stops growth, but an average case count per day of 1000 isn’t sustainable.

    Hopefully Level 5 drives figures down but way too early to tell.

    I think average in previous 7 days to last Saturday was 1079. So a fall of 5% in a week. Yeah, not enough really


  • #4455
    blade1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,941 ✭✭✭✭blade1


    Got stuck at checkpoint going into town for 10/15 minutes.
    Guards were checking bus eireann bus.
    They pulled a fella off it.
    When I came back out 20min later, the guy was standing in the cold/rain with his bags at the side of road.


  • #4456
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,123 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    The only thing level 3 done (or looks to be doing) is slowing the growth rate and eventually perhaps lower cases. But it's far too slow doing it.
    What it shows (we wouldn't have known if the government didn't try level 3) is that it's possible to open up straight to level 3 eventually and they should have data now to see how long we can sustain level 3.

    Level 3 would have had a great chance of working with some minor alterations. The communion, birthday, GAA, student parties were allowed to continue and were a huge source of spikes in communities.


  • #4457
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    The ban on household visits was the key to bringing the r below 1.0

    It was bumping around 1.0-1.3, banning household visits brought it to 0.8

    Yeah this had the biggest effect I suspect. It was also one of the hardest restrictions for the majority.


  • #4458
    Jimson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 164 ✭✭Jimson


    mloc123 wrote: »
    And yet the 18-24 year age group has an infection rate about 3 times the overall average. The same age group that socialise the most..

    The younger you are the more asymptomatic the symptoms are, think about it.

    Why is it rampant in nursing homes? Because there showing symptoms and getting tested.

    How many of these 18-24 would have siblings in schools? A lot of this age group in college as well.

    Also we were at 50 cases a day with house parties rampant across the country. Why is it only when the schools went back its up to 1300


  • #4459
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,296 ✭✭✭prunudo


    blade1 wrote: »
    Got stuck at checkpoint going into town for 10/15 minutes.
    Guards were checking bus eireann bus.
    They pulled a fella off it.
    When I came back out 20min later, the guy was standing in the cold/rain with his bags at the side of road.

    Was he not wearing a mask?


  • #4460
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,630 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Jimson wrote: »
    The younger you are the more asymptomatic the symptoms are, think about it.

    Why is it rampant in nursing homes? Because there showing symptoms!!!

    How many of these 18-24 would have siblings in schools? A lot of this age group in college as well.

    Yes I think it highly likely that young adults have infected some of their younger siblings. That's what the data looks like anyway.


  • #4461
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,634 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    jackboy wrote: »
    Level 3 would have had a great chance of working with some minor alterations. The communion, birthday, GAA, student parties were allowed to continue and were a huge source of spikes in communities.

    Could work at a different time. The communions, GAA finals all occured at the same time. Opening back up in December at level 3, it could work if they keep the enforcement.


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  • #4462
    lostintipp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 ✭lostintipp


    Have they done anything to limit air travel into Ireland? I notice over 80000 cases in the US and 40000 cases in France yesterday, can people just hop on a plane, fill out a form then just wander about the country?


  • #4463
    Jimson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 164 ✭✭Jimson


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    Yes I think it highly likely that young adults have infected some of their younger siblings. That's what the data looks like anyway.

    really so your saying 1000 students packed into a school have nothing to do with the spread of the virus. Really?

    Id love for every primary and secondary school student to be tested in the country i think you would be in for a shock


  • #4464
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,592 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Jimson wrote: »
    really so your saying 1000 students packed into a school have nothing to do with the spread of the virus. Really?

    Id love for every primary and secondary school student to be tested in the country i think you would be in for a shock

    They'd have to get a job in a meat factory.


  • #4465
    Goldrickssan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 387 ✭✭Goldrickssan


    lostintipp wrote: »
    Have they done anything to limit air travel into Ireland? I notice over 80000 cases in the US and 40000 cases in France yesterday, can people just hop on a plane, fill out a form then just wander about the country?

    There's no point in coming here right now.

    But generally no, you have to fill in a form to say you're self isolating but as with most of the 'rules' it's not enforced.


  • #4466
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    lostintipp wrote: »
    Have they done anything to limit air travel into Ireland? I notice over 80000 cases in the US and 40000 cases in France yesterday, can people just hop on a plane, fill out a form then just wander about the country?

    It's scandalous. If we get numbers low again, they need to be doing something with incoming passengers into the country with mandatory quarantine. Complete disregard for the health of the people living here to allow such abuse of their "advice".


  • #4467
    Jimson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 164 ✭✭Jimson


    Boggles wrote: »
    They'd have to get a job in a meat factory.

    That made me laugh


  • #4468
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,630 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Jimson wrote: »
    really so your saying 1000 students packed into a school have nothing to do with the spread of the virus. Really?

    Id love for every primary and secondary school student to be tested in the country i think you would be in for a shock

    You can construct what ever theory you like. The data is clear - much higher infection rates in young adults.


  • #4469
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,259 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I wouldn't go dissing level 5 just yet. 4 weeks of it could seriously seriously reduce the case numbers, more than initially thought.

    The timing of it pre Christmas too was crucial... stop us being fücked dot com going into the new year.


  • #4470
    Jimson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 164 ✭✭Jimson


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    You can construct what ever theory you like. The data is clear - much higher infection rates in young adults.

    Yea I've looked at all the data, that is only for people who show symptoms and got tested.

    The younger you are the more asymptomatic you are.
    There could be a class of 30 now in a school and not one of them show symptoms.

    How do you not get that. Your going on numbers when people showed symptoms and got tested.

    Schools are much better environments than meat factories and nursing homes are they they?


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  • #4471
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Over 15k cases in Czechia which would be the equivalent of 7k cases here


This discussion has been closed.
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