2020 US Election

6 wrote: »

Trump is even money (2.02 on the handicap betting (-100 electoral college votes)

Biden 1.94 for the same bet.

The Financial Times do a good tracker on electoral college votes here
https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

They have Biden locked in for 190 EC votes and then another 89 leaning towards him. Trump is locked in for 125 EC votes and just 39 leaning towards him. Then there is 134 labeled as a toss up. If their projections are accurate Biden would only need to win 2 out of that 134 to get to the magic 270 to become the next President.

Of those three scenarios I would say the polls tightening as we get closer to polling day is most likely though agree it wont be enough for Trump to secure the White House. There is also a shy Trump vote that pollsters can miss though it is difficult to tell how big it is.

Then you've also got the typical October Surprise, Trump has had Rudy Guiliani working on Biden for months now so they are going to produce something in the final days of the campaign. Who knows what it will be or if it will stick but I do expect them to come out with some attack on Biden at the last moment.

Trump, despite saying he's over Covid, is drifting. Market isn't believing him, or in him. Out to 3.35 now on Betfair..

Trump knows he has lost. He'll be pumping the "rigged postal votes" excuse soon.

Lame duck president.

Biden down to 1.44 now but looks like he went as low as 1.41 recently judging by the matched price history.

Trump now 3.05...

Watched Trumps rally speech last night in Florida and after seeing it I think he is a gonner and beyond rescue. For someone who needs to persuade Biden voters to switch to him he is doing the exact opposite by alienating them and it is specifically women he is alienating.

In the polls Trump and Biden are more or less level with male voters but with female voters Biden has a thumping 20 point lead that Trump somehow needs to turn around with just 3 weeks to go. The problem for Trump is women are turned off by him, especially by all the childish name calling of Sleepy Joe, Creepy Joe, that stuff just doesnt go down well with female voters. But he keeps on doing it and the more he does it the more he drives female voters away from him. Trump isnt capable of changing in the next 3 weeks so I just cant see him turning such large amounts of women around, they gave him a chance in 2016 but now in 2020 they are sick of him and will show it at the ballot box.

Deleted User wrote: »

The fact he acted as his own October surprise and brought covid to the forefront of voter's minds has set him for an even bigger defeat I suspect.

Yeah the optics of it are just terrible, he is telling the American people he is the best man to deal with Covid and he can't even protect himself or dozens of his staffers in the White House from getting it. He lacks all credibility on the Covid issue, its been a car crash for him.

Muahahaha wrote: »

In the polls Trump and Biden are more or less level with male voters but with female voters Biden has a thumping 20 point lead that Trump somehow needs to turn around with just 3 weeks to go. The problem for Trump is women are turned off by him, especially by all the childish name calling of Sleepy Joe, Creepy Joe, that stuff just doesnt go down well with female voters.

I think what's really driven women away from him this time more than in 2016 (when "grab 'em by the p***y" was fresh in people's minds) is his reckless, nihilistic approach to the virus, both personally and politically. While a lot of American men, particularly potential Trump voters, would genuinely rather die or get seriously ill than have any restrictions placed on their personal freedom, very few women truly feel this way.

Biden up to 1.51 this morning.

Not sure what caused that. Polls don't seemed to have improved for Trump in any way. the ACB hearings perhaps?

3.1 currently for Trump. Plenty of liquidity.

Muahahaha wrote: »

Still no value in him even at 3.1, he was begging women to "like me" at his rally last night, he knows he is losing and is showing his desperation now

Looks like a beaten man alright.

6 wrote: »

Looks like a beaten man alright.

Ridiculing Biden earlier by saying Biden should be in a retirement home. This is while having a growing deficit he needs to make up among seniors to have any hope of winning. You'd think he stuck a few quid on Biden to win the way he's going on. Biden at 1/2 could look like free money in a few weeks time

Trump still not doing any winning, he purposely held his town hall at the exact same time as Biden last night in what he wanted to be a tv ratings battle that would allow hi to boast about having the bigger rating numbers that he is obsessed with

But now the numbers have been released and Biden has beaten him, this is despite the fact that Trump was screened across three different cable channels to Bidens one

Gary Levin | USA TODAY

The dueling town halls on competing networks crowned a winner, at least ratings-wise: Preliminary Nielsen ratings estimates declare Joe Biden the victor over Donald Trump.

The ratings service says 14.1 million viewers tuned into the former VP and Democratic candidate's town hall on ABC from 8 to 10 p.m. EDT Thursday night, moderated by George Stephanopoulos, while 13.5 million watched Savannah Guthrie referee voters' conversations with President Trump from 8 to 9 EDT on NBC, MSNBC and CNBC combined.

These results measure TV viewership only, including streaming through a set. But they are sure to enrage the ratings-obsessed president, whose aides predicted a victory.

18 days to go and Trump is losing on multiple fronts. Even last night he was again appealing to suburban women to vote for him but then right after the debate his campaign team attacked the female moderator because she was fact checking him throughout. He just cant get anything right at this stage and is now repelling the very voters he badly needs.

Cirrus Incus wrote: »

Also, when is the market settled? Is it on election night when the projection is made, when vote counting is complete or when the electoral college formally choose the next president on 14th December?

Good question and one I have been wondering myself. On Betfair anyway I suspect the market will not be settled until the next president is sworn in on January 20th. I backed Biden to win the nomination and even though he had it mathematically sewn up months beforehand I didn't get paid until the convention when he formally received the nomination after the delegates votes were counted.

There is a smaller chance that you may get paid out on December 14th after the electoral college has their election. However if a candidate won that vote and then died before they were sworn into office then they would never have been president so I'd be surprised if that was it.

Biden up to 1.65 at the same time as the 538 Model has him now up to an 88% chance of winning.

I dunno wtf is going on in the betting markets.

In all my time reading forums, especially gambling ones, I've not seen such bizarre and off the wall analysis than what Accumalotor has consistently delivered thoroughout this thread. It's been fantastic entertainment.

It's so off the wall that I'm not even sure the biggest trump fantastic would believe it so now I'm wondering if this is just some strange attempt to influence the market as he's consistently been laying trump along.

Augme wrote: »

In all my time reading forums, especially gambling ones, I've not seen such bizarre and off the wall analysis than what Accumalotor has consistently delivered thoroughout this thread. It's been fantastic entertainment.

It's so off the wall that I'm not even sure the biggest trump fantastic would believe it so now I'm wondering if this is just some strange attempt to influence the market as he's consistently been laying trump along.

His predictions have definitely been good entertainment, I get a daily laugh out of them. I must go back up the thread because every prediction he makes seems to turn out to be wrong. From memory we were told for weeks that Trump was going to smash Biden in the debates, then that didnt happen at all and Biden extended his lead in the polls after them. We were also told that Biden wouldnt even show up for the debates and then it was Trump who chickened out. Then theres the constant name calling of 'Sleepy Joe', you only ever hear this moniker from Trump supporters who have bought into the Trump cult.

In any case even Trump himself is now doubting he can win, he held a rally last night in Wiscounsin which is now breaking records for new cases of the coronavirus. During it he said

In Michigan, he quipped that, in January, he “better damn well be president”. In Wisconsin, he wondered how he would process a loss.
“Can you imagine if I lose? I will have lost to the worst candidate in the history of American politics,” he said. “What do I do?”

Thats his lack of filter realising that his chances of winning are getting less and less. And now he seems to be going full deranged, he claimed Biden would turn Michigan into a refugee camp and that he is a radical socialist. At a time when he needs to be winning Biden voters over he is doing exactly the opposite to that.

Muahahaha wrote: »

His predictions have definitely been good entertainment, I get a daily laugh out of them. I must go back up the thread because every prediction he makes seems to turn out to be wrong. From memory we were told for weeks that Trump was going to smash Biden in the debates, then that didnt happen at all and Biden extended his lead in the polls after them. We were also told that Biden wouldnt even show up for the debates and then it was Trump who chickened out. Then theres the constant name calling of 'Sleepy Joe', you only ever hear this moniker from Trump supporters who have bought into the Trump cult.

In any case even Trump himself is now doubting he can win, he held a rally last night in Wiscounsin which is now breaking records for new cases of the coronavirus. During it he said



Thats his lack of filter realising that his chances of winning are getting less and less. And now he seems to be going full deranged, he claimed Biden would turn Michigan into a refugee camp and that he is a radical socialist. At a time when he needs to be winning Biden voters over he is doing exactly the opposite to that.

Don't forget the 'China virus' bantz..

Cirrus Incus wrote: »

Also, when is the market settled? Is it on election night when the projection is made, when vote counting is complete or when the electoral college formally choose the next president on 14th December?

The market will be settled according to the market rules of betting portal of choice, if in doubt read the rules, if you dont fully understand the rules or you find some ambiguity in them don't bet.

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Biden up to 1.68 this morning. Final debate is Thursday. Let's see if he keeps ticking upwards until at least then.

...aaaaand back down to 1.62 now. Swingy!