2020 US Election

Trump is even money (2.02 on the handicap betting (-100 electoral college votes)

Biden 1.94 for the same bet.

6 wrote: »

Trump is even money (2.02 on the handicap betting (-100 electoral college votes)

Biden 1.94 for the same bet.

The Financial Times do a good tracker on electoral college votes here
https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

They have Biden locked in for 190 EC votes and then another 89 leaning towards him. Trump is locked in for 125 EC votes and just 39 leaning towards him. Then there is 134 labeled as a toss up. If their projections are accurate Biden would only need to win 2 out of that 134 to get to the magic 270 to become the next President.

Atlantis50

Muahahaha wrote: »

I would be happy with your Biden bet, right now he is in a very strong position and as the days go down it gets harder and harder for Trump to win this. The 52-55% call is a tough one though, you have to remember this is not just Biden v Trump, you also have a Libetarian candidate and a Green candidate running too and they'll pick up maybe 1-3% of the vote.

538 popular vote forecast based on latest polls (https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315287466354630656): Biden 53.5%, Trump 45.3%

The Economist's model (https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president): Biden 54%, Trump 46%

So things could go one of three ways: Biden runs away with it and ends up >55%, he holds it steady at current projected margins or there is some tightening in the next three weeks in Trump's favor, although he would need a gamechanger to turn things around to pull off a win.

Of those three scenarios I would say the polls tightening as we get closer to polling day is most likely though agree it wont be enough for Trump to secure the White House. There is also a shy Trump vote that pollsters can miss though it is difficult to tell how big it is.

Then you've also got the typical October Surprise, Trump has had Rudy Guiliani working on Biden for months now so they are going to produce something in the final days of the campaign. Who knows what it will be or if it will stick but I do expect them to come out with some attack on Biden at the last moment.

No harm in BP so far @3.25! on the Donald to feature on a small but high yeild, multi-line, multi-array acca.

Also half a pint's worth of equity on KH at @391 for a lucky dip to return 1k net.
If ole Joe get the China Flu, recovery won't be anywhere as quick as young Donald's.

Trump, despite saying he's over Covid, is drifting. Market isn't believing him, or in him. Out to 3.35 now on Betfair..

More bad news for Trump and his supporters, No 10 Downing Street are now breaking for Biden and it could be a landslide victory.

Panicking No 10 dumps Trump to woo Biden

Boris Johnson has been warned that Donald Trump is on course for a landslide loss to Joe Biden.

British ministers have been told to forge links with the White House frontrunner Joe Biden after “writing off” Donald Trump’s chances of re-election, amid fears that the UK could be left out in the cold if the former vice-president wins.

Boris Johnson has been warned that Trump is on course for a landslide defeat with his Democratic opponents set to land a historic “triple whammy” by seizing control of the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Private polling and computer models shown to No 10 last month put Biden’s chances of victory at more than 70 per cent. The challenger has since opened up a double-digit lead and one predictive model based on polling this weekend gave him an 85 per cent chance of winning, with the chances of a landslide better than one in three.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/panicking-no-10-dumps-trump-to-woo-biden/news-story/fe75612ad144cb0bcdb061d7ccbfdd28

Trump only managed to speak for 18 minutes at his rally last night whereas normally he does 2 hours. He is not well and he doesnt have the energy for it anymore. Plus he knows he is staring down the barrel of a thumping defeat, Id expect him to lose the plot completely in the next couple of weeks.

Trump knows he has lost. He'll be pumping the "rigged postal votes" excuse soon.

Lame duck president.

Cirrus Incus

Hopefully the odds drift a bit on Biden one last time as the election approaches. Easy money with Trump having a meltdown.

Brussels Sprout

Biden down to 1.44 now but looks like he went as low as 1.41 recently judging by the matched price history.

DT back down the 2.85 avg, from a special value price 3.35 on the main books, mightn't see 3.0 available again for the accas.

Trump now 3.05...

2.88 might well be the best price for acca builders until final live markets, as the Trump gets out and about for weeks of high energy campaigning.
And as Joe continues to muddle up words or forget names on camera.

KH price pipped at 600/1 last night on the Exchanges, even at 500/1 is worth very small bits of covid ravaged coinage as a novelty ticket item.
3wks is still a long time in this area.

Watched Trumps rally speech last night in Florida and after seeing it I think he is a gonner and beyond rescue. For someone who needs to persuade Biden voters to switch to him he is doing the exact opposite by alienating them and it is specifically women he is alienating.

In the polls Trump and Biden are more or less level with male voters but with female voters Biden has a thumping 20 point lead that Trump somehow needs to turn around with just 3 weeks to go. The problem for Trump is women are turned off by him, especially by all the childish name calling of Sleepy Joe, Creepy Joe, that stuff just doesnt go down well with female voters. But he keeps on doing it and the more he does it the more he drives female voters away from him. Trump isnt capable of changing in the next 3 weeks so I just cant see him turning such large amounts of women around, they gave him a chance in 2016 but now in 2020 they are sick of him and will show it at the ballot box.

The fact he acted as his own October surprise and brought covid to the forefront of voter's minds has set him for an even bigger defeat I suspect.

Deleted User wrote: »

The fact he acted as his own October surprise and brought covid to the forefront of voter's minds has set him for an even bigger defeat I suspect.

Yeah the optics of it are just terrible, he is telling the American people he is the best man to deal with Covid and he can't even protect himself or dozens of his staffers in the White House from getting it. He lacks all credibility on the Covid issue, its been a car crash for him.

Trump on the drift again. 3.2 betfair. No sustained support for him.

Loafing Oaf

Muahahaha wrote: »

In the polls Trump and Biden are more or less level with male voters but with female voters Biden has a thumping 20 point lead that Trump somehow needs to turn around with just 3 weeks to go. The problem for Trump is women are turned off by him, especially by all the childish name calling of Sleepy Joe, Creepy Joe, that stuff just doesnt go down well with female voters.

I think what's really driven women away from him this time more than in 2016 (when "grab 'em by the p***y" was fresh in people's minds) is his reckless, nihilistic approach to the virus, both personally and politically. While a lot of American men, particularly potential Trump voters, would genuinely rather die or get seriously ill than have any restrictions placed on their personal freedom, very few women truly feel this way.

6 wrote: »

Trump on the drift again. 3.2 betfair. No sustained support for him.

If you reckon ± small shifts of low liquidity, on a singular source (BFE) is a significant marker, maybe don't bet.

Take a look at the larger extablished B&M vendors, all holding or short (x6, great support) today for the Donald. Walk into PP and ask for 3.25, or 3.0 they had a days ago, and get shown the exit sign (2.87).

Brussels Sprout

Biden up to 1.51 this morning.

Not sure what caused that. Polls don't seemed to have improved for Trump in any way. the ACB hearings perhaps?

Sienna Deep Rite wrote: »

If you reckon ± small shifts of low liquidity, on a singular source (BFE) is a significant marker, maybe don't bet.

Take a look at the larger extablished B&M vendors, all holding or short (x6, great support) today for the Donald. Walk into PP and ask for 3.25, or 3.0 they had a days ago, and get shown the exit sign (2.87).

If you can't be see the difference in bookie v exchange maybe don't bet.

The exchanges are giving much better value.

3.1 currently for Trump. Plenty of liquidity.

Still no value in him even at 3.1, he was begging women to "like me" at his rally last night, he knows he is losing and is showing his desperation now

Muahahaha wrote: »

Still no value in him even at 3.1, he was begging women to "like me" at his rally last night, he knows he is losing and is showing his desperation now

Looks like a beaten man alright.

Cirrus Incus

Is there any value left in Biden at this point? Will the odds tighten a bit towards the election regardless of what the polls say?

The Phantom Jipper

6 wrote: »

Looks like a beaten man alright.

Ridiculing Biden earlier by saying Biden should be in a retirement home. This is while having a growing deficit he needs to make up among seniors to have any hope of winning. You'd think he stuck a few quid on Biden to win the way he's going on. Biden at 1/2 could look like free money in a few weeks time

Brussels Sprout

Cirrus Incus wrote: »

Is there any value left in Biden at this point? Will the odds tighten a bit towards the election regardless of what the polls say?

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the polls (and subsequently the odds) would tighten but Trump just keeps doing more and more deranged stuff so who knows!

This will be the typical trend over the next few weeks (Trump shortening), with market likely closing Trump 2.15 Nov 3.

Trump down again, (2.75 across the board), even BFE hasn't got 3.0 (less comission).
Daily high energy campaigning could sway the undecided.

Would be funny of Kayne Whesty won a load of votes in some region(s).

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the polls (and subsequently the odds) would tighten but Trump just keeps doing more and more deranged stuff so who knows!

yeah that would be the conventional wisdom but there is also an element there that when people see one candidate so far ahead in the polls they gravitate towards them, its silly but voters like to be on the winning side of history and that can and does influence undecideds. Momentum in an election campaign begets even more momentum, the Tories benefited greatly from this in their landslide election earlier this year.

And now Biden has announced today that he has raised $383m in donations in the month of September with the average donation being just $44. He has broken all records in terms of fundraising while the Trump campaign are still not releasing their numbers because they know Biden is beating them.