Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

wes · 05-10-2020 02:19AM

Way I see it, we lockdown now and we can maybe save Christmas, and this time round we need to coordinate with the North, boost our contact tracing capabilities, and go for a 0 covid island approach. Everyone coming into the country need to quarantine in a hotel for 2 weeks regardless, and if we do things right, we can be like New Zealand, Vietnam etc.

s1ippy · 05-10-2020 02:21AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

I knew Dr Tony wouldn’t let us down guys, he’s such a total ledge. That said, word on the street here in Dalkey is that they are softening us up for a level 4.5.

My sister is the captain of the Irish naval service and she said they've set up a perimeter around Ireland and they're shooting defectors on sight.

Polar101 · 05-10-2020 02:24AM

For me the Level 5 recommendation doesn't make much sense, and I'd be quite surprised if it actually happened. We got a "Living with Covid" plan in September, it's been less than a month since it was launched (hasn't it?).

I'd understand if we had been seeing something like "Level 2 -> things getting worse -> Level 3 -> things getting worse -> Level 4", but now there's 2 counties on Level 3ish, and 24 on Level 2. So jumping straight to Level 5 would be odd, and in my opinion it would also mean ditching of the plan.

I could be wrong, but I don't see Level 5 happening (right now, that is) - if it did, then it definitely would mean the Plan was a joke. It was called "medium term plan for 6-9 months", not "forget about the plan in 3 weeks".

John O.Groats · 05-10-2020 02:25AM

Arghus wrote: »

I'm not going to pretend that I'm totally on board with this latest development. It all seems shocking and sudden, numerous questions about communication and the squandering of time up to this.

But, if you look at it coldly, cases are increasing and show no signs of slowing down.

What we're currently doing is not stopping the spread of the virus, this can't be denied. If we continue on this present course we're looking at 1300-1400 cases per day by the end of this month and about 400 people in hospital. Which is roughly speaking where we were when lockdown was first imposed. If we don't do anything then things will only get worse - anyone who disputes this isfor the birds. We could, in fact we probably will, have to enter level five when it gets to that stage. So by going to that stage when things are merely just bad, as opposed to waiting until things inevitably become worse is attempting to get ahead of things before it becomes too late. Waiting until then in the long run makes thing far more grim and drawn out.

I'm as taken aback as anyone, but, after thinking about it a bit, I think the end point if we continue on our present course is obvious, even if that's hard to accept for a lot of people. But waiting for that end point to arrive lessens the semblance of control you eventually have.

I think the discussion right now in Ireland is going to be had in one form or another by every country in Europe over the next few weeks.

Talk of level 5 was dropped like an anvil into everyone's life this evening, but think back over everything that's been coming out of press briefings for the last number of weeks. They know the score, they've been begging us to pay heed.

But unfortunately a sizeable number of moronic fcukwits have been ignoring it so they can have their fcuking house parties and are wholly responsible for what will be coming our way soon. They are and will be the first to moan and whinge when it happens.

Goldengirl · 05-10-2020 02:26AM

Arghus wrote: »

I'm not going to pretend that I'm totally on board with this latest development. It all seems shocking and sudden, numerous questions about communication and the squandering of time up to this.

But, if you look at it coldly, cases are increasing and show no signs of slowing down.

What we're currently doing is not stopping the spread of the virus, this can't be denied. If we continue on this present course we're looking at 1300-1400 cases per day by the end of this month and about 400 people in hospital. Which is roughly speaking where we were when lockdown was first imposed. If we don't do anything then things will only get worse - anyone who disputes this isfor the birds. We could, in fact we probably will, have to enter level five when it gets to that stage. So by going to that stage when things are merely just bad, as opposed to waiting until things inevitably become worse is attempting to get ahead of things before it becomes too late. Waiting until then in the long run makes thing far more grim and drawn out.

I'm as taken aback as anyone, but, after thinking about it a bit, I think the end point if we continue on our present course is obvious, even if that's hard to accept for a lot of people. But waiting for that end point to arrive lessens the semblance of control you eventually have.

I think the discussion right now in Ireland is going to be had in one form or another by every country in Europe over the next few weeks.

Talk of level 5 was dropped like an anvil into everyone's life this evening, but think back over everything that's been coming out of press briefings for the last number of weeks. They know the score, they've been begging us to pay heed.

I am the same . Shocked , that they seem to be jumping so fast to level 5 .
But on the basis of those numbers I am thinking that they don't want to let it get to where we were last March , where hospitals had to stop everything else except emergencies and schools closed . Nobody wants that .
Guess we'll just have to wait to see what happens tomorrow.

Goldengirl · 05-10-2020 02:28AM

Immortal Starlight wrote: »

Can I ask everybody what they would do if the school their child attends had a covid diagnosis during the weekend. The covid case is not in my child’s year so he is expected to be present at school after the weekend. What would you do would you let your child back to school?

Yes . Why would you not ?
Is your child a contact ?

Goldengirl · 05-10-2020 02:31AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

If they weren't actually serious you'd laugh.

We should just rip up any legally binding agreements.....

Would play directly into Conservative and Unionist hands .

Immortal Starlight · 05-10-2020 02:31AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes . Why would you not ?
Is your child a contact ?

My child is not in the same year as the sick child but we do have someone recovering from cancer in our home. I am worried.

Gradius · 05-10-2020 02:33AM

The current strategy is to keep people locked down until a vaccine arrives.

It's a terrible plan because it is based on a hypothetical.

If a vaccine fails to materialise by next June, what then?

We need to act on what we know now and plan accordingly now. People are going to get less and less compliant the more that they are told to hunker down while the country sinks for no solid exit in sight.

Oh the politicians will fight tooth and nail under pressure from lobbies to keep things "going". But the increasingly obvious fact is they aren't saving anything ANYWAY. It's for nowt.

Ficheall · 05-10-2020 02:33AM

Are they trying to perhaps absolve themselves of responsibility?

Announce something ridiculous that people will never abide by and then afterwards say, "Well, look guys, we asked but ye didn't listen - 'tis your own fault..."

Gradius · 05-10-2020 02:34AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Would play directly into Conservative and Unionist hands .

Yeah they'd be rubbing their hands while on ventilators the way things are going.

s1ippy · 05-10-2020 02:34AM

Immortal Starlight wrote: »

Can I ask everybody what they would do if the school their child attends had a covid diagnosis during the weekend. The covid case is not in my child’s year so he is expected to be present at school after the weekend. What would you do would you let your child back to school?

You can choose to do whatever you're comfortable with. I would be avoiding that place like the actual plague.

I spoke with a former colleague today. On Monday a student was sent home with an appalling cough, the mother sent him back in Thursday with the cough after getting worse. He revealed he'd never been to the GP and his sister was at home all week sick too. Mam was called, said she was holding off until Monday to go to the GP because the sister's communion party was during the weekend.

The school have no recourse if she still doesn't bring him to the GP on Monday. In that instance, it won't be until someone else tests positive that a case will be detected in the pod. He gets a bus to school with children from several other pods.

I've seen enough in the last month to know that schools are the #1 drivers. If you value your health and that of your family, I highly recommend staying well away from them herein.

Goldengirl · 05-10-2020 02:35AM

wes wrote: »

Way I see it, we lockdown now and we can maybe save Christmas, and this time round we need to coordinate with the North, boost our contact tracing capabilities, and go for a 0 covid island approach. Everyone coming into the country need to quarantine in a hotel for 2 weeks regardless, and if we do things right, we can be like New Zealand, Vietnam etc.

Yes.
I think they have got such a fright in recent days up north that they would be in agreement .

Ficheall · 05-10-2020 02:37AM

Immortal Starlight wrote: »

My child is not in the same year as the sick child but we do have someone recovering from cancer in our home. I am worried.

Giving medical advice is not allowed here, but it sounds like you would be less worried if you kept your child home.

Goldengirl · 05-10-2020 02:41AM

Immortal Starlight wrote: »

My child is not in the same year as the sick child but we do have someone recovering from cancer in our home. I am worried.

Of course.
If I were you then I would wait and contact the school tomorrow.
You have legitimate reason for concern , but if not in your child's year it may not be a problem .
Might have to wait until the contacts pan out.
Request that somebody contacts you back from Public Health .

hynesie08 · 05-10-2020 02:42AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes.
I think they have got such a fright in recent days up north that they would be in agreement .

Could they even call a full lockdown including Borders without the UK say so??

Goldengirl · 05-10-2020 02:51AM

hynesie08 wrote: »

Could they even call a full lockdown including Borders without the UK say so??

I don't know .
I think they did up the restrictions and close schools in March before Boris did in UK .
Would be difficult and they couldn't close to UK border , I would imagine .

wes · 05-10-2020 02:58AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

I don't know .
I think they did up the restrictions and close schools in March before Boris did in UK .
Would be difficult and they couldn't close to UK border , I would imagine .

I wonder if they could have people coming in quarantine for 2 weeks in a hotel. It would not be a closed border per se, the people would still be able to enter the North, they would just have to quarantine for 2 weeks. Might be a work around.

Strumms · 05-10-2020 03:03AM

Thinking more about the NI situation.

How many up there have relatives in the Republic? To put them up ?

Of those who do many relatives might not be willing to ? Could be 50/50

90% wont be of the resources to be able to utilize hotels / rent houses for any worthwhile degree of time that could ensure safety.

There’d be a school of thinking that even there, they might be better in the environment they know, restrictions on their movements and contacts.

Strumms · 05-10-2020 03:08AM

wes wrote: »

I wonder if they could have people coming in quarantine for 2 weeks in a hotel. It would not be a closed border per se, the people would still be able to enter the North, they would just have to quarantine for 2 weeks. Might be a work around.

It would work. Impossible to police I’d guess though unfortunately. Having been up there a few times and knowing the psychological makeup to an ‘extent’, I’d expect low compliance.

High reward to the people from there , higher risk to the state and its people here.

wes · 05-10-2020 03:43AM

Strumms wrote: »

It would work. Impossible to police I’d guess though unfortunately. Having been up there a few times and knowing the psychological makeup to an ‘extent’, I’d expect low compliance.

High reward to the people from there , higher risk to the state and its people here.

I was thinking people coming from the rest of the UK and elsewhere would quarantine. Ireland and Northen Ireland would basically both have to follow a 0 covid strategy.

Anyone coming to the island would have to be quarantined in hotels chosen by the government and guarded by the relevant authorities, with stiff penalties for those violating it.

speckle · 05-10-2020 04:39AM

Great, I think everyone is gone to bed, like I am just about too. But while everyone was understandably de-stressing from the shock leak by bickering, I went searching online to see what I could find.;)

So what is the real reasons behind wanting to jump levels? Well watch this video. It is not that we exactly have a huge increase hospitalizations/ICU covid admissions, (which are at a lower percentage per cases this time round but growing slowly but steadily).

It is the backlog (from earlier in the year and historical) of outpatient appointments and surgery's right across the departments in hospitals coinciding with increased emergency department visits by high risk/older/vulnerable people, who probably put off going and are now presenting with more complex issues. A lack of capacity, staff covid burnout and Gp's this retiring also mentioned.

From the Royal College of surgeons of Ireland, discussing the situation 2 weeks ago, re the hospitals in Cork, Limerick, Galway/west and Belfast/North.(before recent numbers) @ 5mins/18mins/39mins/57mins.

Note the mention of level 5 in the first two minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfXL8clzYYg

I blame all government parties over the last 20 years for their lack of investment in the public health service and the HSE for the lack of reorganising it.

And more recently, Nephet/government for not treating us like adults, and imparting to us the Irish people, the likes of the information in this video. It should have been on prime time TV even replacing an hour of the Late Late Show. So we all could have an informed debate, on how to balance the interdependence of economy and health care going into the next year. We could have let the Irish people start thinking of creative ideas to help.

I am as mad as hell because of the lack of transparency from Nephet/HSE and the government... grow up and treat us as adults and stop blaming every sector of society as breaking restrictions/regulations while your own house needs to get into order.:mad:

Rant over, I am going to bed now with a video/research paper talking about of how Bahrain turned the 3rd floor of a car park into an ICU in 7days with 130 beds!:)

Russman · 05-10-2020 05:13AM

Couple of points,

For all the advocates of shielding the vulnerable and carrying on regardless, if social distancing and mask wearing and precautions are gone by the wayside now (certainly for a percentage of the population), what makes anyone think they will be observed by those who are not shielding, when in contact with the vulnerable ? I mean at the moment it’s supposed to be part of our daily existence but if it’s not even that, there’s even less chance it will be done imo.

What’s the point of level 5 if the schools are going to stay open ? It seems obvious that teenagers mixing is having an impact - the size of the impact is perhaps open to debate, but I’d argue (granted without numbers) that there’s more spread via kids in school than there is in your average shop or restaurant.

While I think an all island approach to try get to zero COVID is great in theory, it’s just not workable. Half the politicians up there would rather get the virus than be seen to do the same as us or to match up our approaches. It’s just a bridge too far.

ThunbergsAreGo · 05-10-2020 06:52AM

speckle wrote: »

Great, I think everyone is gone to bed, like I am just about too. But while everyone was understandably de-stressing from the shock leak by bickering, I went searching online to see what I could find.;)

So what is the real reasons behind wanting to jump levels? Well watch this video. It is not that we exactly have a huge increase hospitalizations/ICU covid admissions, (which are at a lower percentage per cases this time round but growing slowly but steadily).

It is the backlog (from earlier in the year and historical) of outpatient appointments and surgery's right across the departments in hospitals coinciding with increased emergency department visits by high risk/older/vulnerable people, who probably put off going and are now presenting with more complex issues. A lack of capacity, staff covid burnout and Gp's this retiring also mentioned.

From the Royal College of surgeons of Ireland, discussing the situation 2 weeks ago, re the hospitals in Cork, Limerick, Galway/west and Belfast/North.(before recent numbers) @ 5mins/18mins/39mins/57mins.

Note the mention of level 5 in the first two minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfXL8clzYYg

I blame all government parties over the last 20 years for their lack of investment in the public health service and the HSE for the lack of reorganising it.

And more recently, Nephet/government for not treating us like adults, and imparting to us the Irish people, the likes of the information in this video. It should have been on prime time TV even replacing an hour of the Late Late Show. So we all could have an informed debate, on how to balance the interdependence of economy and health care going into the next year. We could have let the Irish people start thinking of creative ideas to help.

I am as mad as hell because of the lack of transparency from Nephet/HSE and the government... grow up and treat us as adults and stop blaming every sector of society as breaking restrictions/regulations while your own house needs to get into order.:mad:

Rant over, I am going to bed now with a video/research paper talking about of how Bahrain turned the 3rd floor of a car park into an ICU in 7days with 130 beds!:)

We spend almost a quarter of our money on health but its a total black hole with a bloated HSE with zero accountability

TexasTornado · 05-10-2020 07:02AM

wes wrote: »

Way I see it, we lockdown now and we can maybe save Christmas, and this time round we need to coordinate with the North, boost our contact tracing capabilities, and go for a 0 covid island approach. Everyone coming into the country need to quarantine in a hotel for 2 weeks regardless, and if we do things right, we can be like New Zealand, Vietnam etc.

I don't give a hoot about Xmas but i do think zero Covid will have now have to be seriously looked at. We simply can not go on opening and reclosing businesses like this until the vaccine comes along which could be 6 months, a year or two.

Happydays2020 · 05-10-2020 07:22AM

So, what we are hearing is that the main risks are people having parties in homes etc. Plus university students letting off steam. What we are not hearing (officially) are the issues in respect to schools.

So what is the solution - let’s close all non essential businesses who in the round have been very compliant. That means Ikea, hardware stores, clothes shops, shopping centres. Business who invested to keep customers and staff safe (and to a large extent did so). Are construction sites to close? What about marts? And factories?

The level of uncertainty this bomb has introduced will shake society and the economy. Only last Thursday they decided not to recommend moving counties with increasing numbers to level 3. They have been very political in recent weeks - off record briefings to journalists, comments in respect to Govt.

In the meantime we have had excuse after excuse from the health service on contact tracing and capacity. Still no additional capacity. They are blaming everyone except themselves. We have given billions to them year after year - the health service looks for problems not solutions. They had a blank chequebook and did not even know what to do with it. The vested interests (certainly not nurses) and dire management in the health service are what are to blame - yet already they are blaming Govt and the taxpayer for not resourcing them. We have resourced them - they just did not deliver.

Happydays2020 · 05-10-2020 07:24AM

TexasTornado wrote: »

I don't give a hoot about Xmas but i do think zero Covid will have now have to be seriously looked at. We simply can not go on opening and reclosing businesses like this until the vaccine comes along which could be 6 months, a year or two.

Zero Covid is theoretical. And don’t pretend to be a friend of business. Zero Covid will lead to 100,000ks of permanent job losses as it will hit the MNE sector.

is_that_so · 05-10-2020 07:38AM

TexasTornado wrote: »

I don't give a hoot about Xmas but i do think zero Covid will have now have to be seriously looked at. We simply can not go on opening and reclosing businesses like this until the vaccine comes along which could be 6 months, a year or two.

That's exactly what ZeroCovid requires as well. Any defined or promised timelines to clear out the virus are just guesswork. Zero Covid also brings the risk of a lot more mental health issues. It's the behavioural stuff we need to get a handle on and for people to understand that it is not life as usual nor can it be for a good while longer. Most people can manage that with a more limited approach to social contacts.

Happydays2020 · 05-10-2020 07:40AM

Someone has been listening to the mood music from Government.

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1312979027918049280?s=21

Doctors room ghost · 05-10-2020 07:42AM

According to the wireless there will be nothing happening Re the level 5 today.no cabinet meeting until Tuesday and Leo needs time to watch 3 lord of the rings and 3 hobbit films to find a suitable poem.
Michael martin has also vowed to have all Harry Potter films watched by Tuesday and have some inspirational quotes sourced.
All systems are go.

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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