2020 US Election

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-09-2020 7:35pm

Augme wrote: »

If it's only a question of when she takes his place then surely it should be a lot more than just a dab.

Again just a matter of time, now it could be weeks, months, possibly a bit longer, but there is no way Joe can roll out 4yrs as leader of the free world (82yrs Nov 2024), at very best might have 2yrs left of gas in the tank.

Brussels Sprout · 29-09-2020 12:04pm

Biden dipping below 1.80 on BetFair for the first time in over 2 months. Possibly off the back of a poll out this morning showing him 9 points up in Pennsylvania.

It'll be interesting to see the price tomorrow morning after the first debate.

4068ac1elhodqr · 29-09-2020 3:29pm

Live markets for debates will be very interesting!

I'm assuming of course they for a few hours duration, involve standing up, are fully live (not remote, or vr), do not have teleprompts or earpeices, and some sort of smattering of a small audience.

The price on Donald really hasn't budged much slim@2.1.
The (non shock that a billionaire pays little tax (like every other billionaire) ain't no great surprise.

Fr Tod Umptious · 30-09-2020 8:27am

Honest question.
Where is the money in the Betfair market coming from ?

Is it primarily this side of the atlantic i.e. Europe, or the American side, or is it just bots ?

If it's primarily from this side then the prices may be off because this side of the world is skewed against Trump so there may be a bias in that price.

Now I'm not saying €111 million in matched bets is wrong, I'm just wondering is there some value in Trump at 2.48 there ?

Brussels Sprout · 30-09-2020 10:16am

Biden down to 1.67 this morning.

Looks like the view is that by making the debate a ****show Trump won't have won over any of the swing state, swing voters that he desperately needs to win over if he wants to have a shot.

Brussels Sprout · 30-09-2020 10:28am

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Honest question.
Where is the money in the Betfair market coming from ?

Is it primarily this side of the atlantic i.e. Europe, or the American side,...

I'm willing to be corrected on this but it's almost certainly not the US market. Gambling sites are licensed based on geographical locations (for example you can't access the Paddy Power site in France)

I think it's possible that Betfair is just Britain & Ireland.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

or is it just bots ?

bots are linked to actual accounts, so even automated accounts will be associated with people who live in the same regions

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

If it's primarily from this side then the prices may be off because this side of the world is skewed against Trump so there may be a bias in that price.

If anything the prices, until the last few days, have been bullish on Trump given the polling information so far in the race.

As of the time of writing this, Trump is heading for 2.6 on Betfair and I still think that represents poor value for money given the polls and that his campaign are pulling ads in states for the past few weeks due to lack of resources. Looking at the electoral map it's very difficult to find a path to 270 electoral points for Trump right now. I'd be willing to put money on him if he was > 5.0.

4068ac1elhodqr · 30-09-2020 2:21pm

Very surprised on the drift on DT, to be fair he got off to a fairly ropey/shouty start.
Still, the 2.5 now presents a decent enough acca builder or multiplier line selection.

Muahahaha · 30-09-2020 2:39pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Biden down to 1.67 this morning.

Looks like the view is that by making the debate a ****show Trump won't have won over any of the swing state, swing voters that he desperately needs to win over if he wants to have a shot.

Thats Trumps main problem now, he is behind in the polls and in many states it is outside the margin of error. Which means he needs to convince intending Biden voters to vote for him instead. Last nights shouty debate didnt do anything to achieve that. If we have another two debates similar to that Trump wont be shifting the needle, its more likely to turn undecided voters off him and he already needs all of those that he can get.

The betting markets today are just reacting to what they saw last night which was proof that Biden isnt this sleepy character that he has been portrayed as being for the last six months. Once it was seen that Biden was able to hold his own the markets solidified and his odds have shortened.

Also Trumps polling numbers seem to be getting worse, not better. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by 0.72% but now in 2020 he is 9% behind there and his campaign have virtually given up on it. Its looking like Pennsylvania will give Biden a solid win, thus cutting off yet another route to victory for Trump.

4068ac1elhodqr · 30-09-2020 3:00pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

The betting markets today are just reacting to what they saw last night which was proof that Biden isnt this sleepy character that he has been portrayed as being for the last six months. .

Ah now, if it hadn't been for the podium, even a short 90mins of unassisted standing (not to mention walking around) would have weared out Joe rather quick. He still stumbled and slurred out rather a few words, eyes looked tired, and his vocal projection is still worringly weak (one clear sign of health issues).

The only person that helped Joe last night, was a slightly pre-agitated and over energetic DT, he would have prefered a live audience and the chance to walk around and work the room.

Prices will settle down again in the comin days and weeks, 2.5 could be the best price for DT for a while.

todolist · 30-09-2020 7:36pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

I don't like Bannon but he is entitled to his opinion on the election as much as any Biden media supporter.

Out of curiosity did Bannon address how Trump is polling so poorly in the crucial battle ground states but is according to him going to win?

Bannon doesn't believe the opinion polls. He's talking about the silent majority who will come out and gjve Trump a second term. His podcast is well worth listening to.Bannon is a superb strategist.

Cirrus Incus · 30-09-2020 8:45pm

Seems like I missed the boat for betting on Biden at evens.

Brussels Sprout · 30-09-2020 9:57pm

Biden down to 1.62 now (Trump available at 2.66).

That's a big movement since the debate.

Bobeagleburger · 30-09-2020 11:55pm

Trump is tanking

Muahahaha · 01-10-2020 2:26pm

6 wrote: »

Trump is tanking

The post debate landscape isnt looking good for him

President Trump’s quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night’s debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996.1

If we look at potential tipping-point states, the race is a bit closer, but not that much closer. After a couple of strong polls for Joe Biden earlier this week in Pennsylvania — the state that’s currently most likely to decide the election — Trump now trails there by 5 to 6 points. He’s down by about 7 points in Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile. Those states, along with Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire — where Biden has also polled strongly lately — suggest that Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago. Indeed, Biden is as close to winning South Carolina or Alaska as Trump is to winning Michigan and Wisconsin, based on recent polls of those states.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/

Thats from 538. Right now they are giving Trump a 21% chance of winning the election. They say if the election were held today then he only has a 9% chance. He needs to do something quick to claw back his losses to Biden but is fast running out of time, the election is just over 4 weeks away now and millions of Americans have already voted.

Coybig_ · 01-10-2020 2:33pm

Dont think the polls are the best indicator in this case, many Trump supporters won't/don't admit to voting for him. Not a reliable indicator.

Brussels Sprout · 01-10-2020 6:29pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

Dont think the polls are the best indicator in this case, many Trump supporters won't/don't admit to voting for him. Not a reliable indicator.

I've heard this a fair bit in response to his poor polling numbers but I don't believe there's any evidence of this beyond hearsay and anecdotes.

The main issue in 2016 appears to be that the pollsters under-estimated the amount of white, working-class voters when weighting their polls, especially in the Mid-West. People were actually telling them they were voting for Trump - they just under-counted them when they were putting it all together.

Many pollsters were puzzled by the failure of mainstream forecasting models to predict the outcome of the 2016 election. Some journalists compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election. Sean Trende, writing for RealClearPolitics, wrote that many of the polls were accurate, but that the pundits' interpretation of these polls neglected polling error. Nate Silver found that the high number of undecided and third-party voters in the election was neglected in many of these models, and that many of these voters decided to vote for Trump.[According to a February 2018 study by Public Opinion Quarterly, the main sources of polling error were "a late swing in vote preference toward Trump and a pervasive failure to adjust for over-representation of college graduates (who favored Clinton)," whereas the share of "shy" Trump voters (who declined to admit their support for Trump to the pollsters) proved to be negligible.

They have adapted their methods (by weighting for education level, I believe) to ensure that they don't make that particular mistake again.

link

Rjd2 · 01-10-2020 10:29pm

1.57 Biden, slowly but surely Betfair is copping itself on.

Still to big Biden though.:p

bobbyy gee · 01-10-2020 10:32pm

Russia will fix the election for trump

as he owes them 420 million

01-10-2020 10:58pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I've heard this a fair bit in response to his poor polling numbers but I don't believe there's any evidence of this beyond hearsay and anecdotes.

The main issue in 2016 appears to be that the pollsters under-estimated the amount of white, working-class voters when weighting their polls, especially in the Mid-West. People were actually telling them they were voting for Trump - they just under-counted them when they were putting it all together.

They have adapted their methods (by weighting for education level, I believe) to ensure that they don't make that particular mistake again.

link

Another major point that I've only seen covered in the last few weeks is that there are far more undecided voters this time around. Instead of a 4 point lead meaning 43-39 it means 47-43 this time around. Also in a lot of states Biden is hitting 48+% whereas last time Clinton was 45 or below.

TexasTornado · 01-10-2020 11:03pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

Dont think the polls are the best indicator in this case, many Trump supporters won't/don't admit to voting for him. Not a reliable indicator.

People still don't get this. There is also many active campaigns from Trump supporter groupings in the US to respond as Biden voters for pollsters. Then there are the many many silent Trump voters who just won't admit to the pollster on the phone or street that they will vote Trump.

I'd go as far as to say the polls in this election will be even less reliable than in 2016.

Augme · 01-10-2020 11:21pm

There will also be many people people who were undecided last time and went with trump on a bit of whim and will have massively regretted that too.

I do also wonder how much stock to take in people being afraid to say they are voting for trump. I mean these are americans we are talking about they aren't known for being the reserved and shy type. I think ultimately it is difficult to see Biden losing. He is a much more appealing candidate to the middle ground than Hilary and I think that will be the deciding factor.

Fr Tod Umptious · 01-10-2020 11:48pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

1.57 Biden, slowly but surely Betfair is copping itself on.

Still to big Biden though.:p

I personally think the Betfair market is skewed towards Biden because of who is making up the market.

The money, all €113.8 million of it, is coming from this part of the world.
And this part of the world has an undeniable bias towards Biden, or more so against Trump.

Thus the prices are potentially off.

Anyone got proper US odds, from a US bookmaker ?

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-10-2020 12:21am

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Anyone got proper US odds, from a US bookmaker ?

Generally there is very little in the way of 'regulated' politics betting available there for various reasons. Nevada rejected it back in 2013, and don't think it's changed ever since.

Would have to try the off-shore (unregulated route), Costa Rica etc, and hope a speedboat delivers bills into MIA if ever hit the jackpot.

Of course the blackmarket gaming industry there is worth a few $bn pa, hence it's now very slowly starting to de-regulate and open up (taxable income for the less red-tape Trump gov).

WillylHill is about to get taken over by Caesers Palance Ents, Vegas, $2.9bn. Cheap.

Fr Tod Umptious · 02-10-2020 6:53am

The market is now suspended on Betfair as our friend Mr Trump has COVID.

Muahahaha · 02-10-2020 1:45pm

Oddschecker showing all the major bookies have suspended betting. You cant even get money on Pence to be next President, not that he would beat Biden anyway.

Trump is going to be in his bunker in the White House now for two weeks minimum and maybe longer if he gets very sick or tries injesting bleach. Its unlikely he will make the second debate which given it is a town hall style debate with questions from the audience is actually a positive for him.

Rjd2 · 02-10-2020 1:46pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

2.1? .

I don't think either drop out, but don't believe its a cert that if one were to drop out it would be Biden.

Hope some of you have some throwaway bets on Pence.

Although pretty sure he'd be in contact with Hope Hicks also.

Rjd2 · 02-10-2020 1:47pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Oddschecker showing all the major bookies have suspended betting. You cant even get money on Pence to be next President, not that he would beat Biden anyway.

Trump is going to be in his bunker in the White House now for two weeks minimum and maybe longer if he gets very sick or tries injesting bleach. Its unlikely he will make the second debate which given it is a town hall style debate with questions from the audience is actually a positive for him.

smarkets are re opened.

https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/2020-election-winner

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-10-2020 1:47pm

He'll be back in <7days, ideally any temporary odds bump will result in increased ROI% opportunities.

Could well be a chance old Joe will pick up the China Flu: recovery time 2mths.

Bobeagleburger · 02-10-2020 2:17pm

Is money refunded if Trump dies / doesn't run?

Also, if Biden runs against someone else and wins, are winnings paid out?

I'm assuming the answers are Yes, and No.

Rjd2 · 02-10-2020 2:23pm

6 wrote: »

Is money refunded if Trump dies / doesn't run?

Also, if Biden runs against someone else and wins, are winnings paid out?

I'm assuming the answers are Yes, and No.

Depends on who the bookie is. I wouldn't blame them if they said its a losing bet, but maybe for PR they void?

If you bet Biden to be president then yeah its a winner, although some bookies may have some sort of rule they may void if election is void until 2021.

Muahahaha · 02-10-2020 2:23pm

6 wrote: »

Is money refunded if Trump dies / doesn't run?

Also, if Biden runs against someone else and wins, are winnings paid out?

I'm assuming the answers are Yes, and No.

I would have though No and Yes, you are betting on who will be the next President so if a candidate dies or pulls out the bet is lost, no refunds.

The next few days will be interesting but its not looking good for a Trump win right now, it all depends how badly the virus hits him. Hes 74 and obese so not in a good position to fight it off, that said he has a massive medical team around him.

Bobeagleburger · 02-10-2020 2:26pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

I would have though No and Yes, you are betting on who will be the next President so if a candidate dies or pulls out the bet is lost, no refunds.

The next few days will be interesting but its not looking good for a Trump win right now, it all depends how badly the virus hits him. Hes 74 and obese so not in a good position to fight it off, that said he has a massive medical team around him.

Similar to ante post on horses then?

Rjd2 · 02-10-2020 2:43pm

6 wrote: »

Similar to ante post on horses then?

Pretty much.

Maybe some bookies would refund for PR but unlikely.

Bobeagleburger · 02-10-2020 2:53pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

Pretty much.

Maybe some bookies would refund for PR but unlikely.

Some people will be sweating so!

Brussels Sprout · 02-10-2020 3:33pm

6 wrote: »

Is money refunded if Trump dies / doesn't run?

Also, if Biden runs against someone else and wins, are winnings paid out?

I'm assuming the answers are Yes, and No.

The Betfair market is called "Next President" so you would not be refunded. If you picked Trump you'd lose the bet if he died before the election and was replaced on the ticket. If you picked Biden and he won you would get paid, regardless of who his opponent is. Mike Pence, Kamala Harris and a range of other people are in that market for these exact, edge-case scenarios.

Edit: I see Muahahaha answered this already above

Brussels Sprout · 02-10-2020 3:37pm

Anyone know why the Betfair market is still frozen? I mean what are the technical reasons behind it? I know they do this in their sports markets when, for example a goal has been scored but that it only ever for a few seconds. Like are they waiting to hear if Trump is asymptomatic or something? Why not just leave the market open and let people speculate - it is a gambling site after all!

Muahahaha · 02-10-2020 3:53pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Anyone know why the Betfair market is still frozen? I mean what are the technical reasons behind it? I know they do this in their sports markets when, for example a goal has been scored but that it only ever for a few seconds. Like are they waiting to hear if Trump is asymptomatic or something? Why not just leave the market open and let people speculate - it is a gambling site after all!

Trump getting Covid is a major event so I presume they are scared of their exposure if the market is open. You'd have floods of money going on Biden even at short odds. Pences odds in Australia dropped from 100/1 to 12/1 in the space of an hour before they shut the market, presumably because their exposure to losses was too high for them to be comfortable with it.

Any bet on Trump now too is really a double bet, you are betting that 1) he can beat the virus and 2) he can win the election. For his age group and the fact he is obese his statistical chances of death from it are around 12% and being severely incapacitated for several months it is higher than that. Right now you would want at least 15/1 for Trump to be the next President and the bookies are not going to risk those kind of odds in what is still effectively a two horse race. But around 15/1 is where he is at now given we dont yet know if he will pull out or not. If the virus hits him hard like it did to Boris then everything is up in the air, especially as 2 million Americans have already voted by mail with Trumps name on the ballot.

Brussels Sprout · 02-10-2020 5:18pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Trump getting Covid is a major event so I presume they are scared of their exposure if the market is open. You'd have floods of money going on Biden even at short odds. Pences odds in Australia dropped from 100/1 to 12/1 in the space of an hour before they shut the market, presumably because their exposure to losses was too high for them to be comfortable with it.

That logic would make sense for their traditional betting operation but not for the exchange. They are just market makers there with no exposure to the outcomes. Whoever wins they get their commission and make sure the winners get paid.

Muahahaha · 02-10-2020 5:35pm

Biden tests negative, Pence is the same

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1312065485400346625

Muahahaha · 02-10-2020 6:06pm

Betfair exchange offering Trump at 2.9, you would want to be an idiot to take those odds now that Trump has the virus. Pence down to 56 but he wouldnt be able to beat Biden anyway if Trump pulls out so its not even worth a throwaway bet.

ianburke · 02-10-2020 6:51pm

not often you can lay a 15/1 shot at 2.9 surely your're filling your boots?

will throw 50 on him if he hits 4/1 just for the interest. the way he's drifting that bet may be on this weekend!

bobbyy gee · 02-10-2020 6:54pm

what are the odds of trump dying from covid before election

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-10-2020 7:09pm

Folks have regained their senses after the news that 'man has a flu'.
Back and stabilised to what it was prior 2.5 & 2.6 (BF) on re-opening bookie markets.
It's just another spin of the earths orbit folks.

Bobeagleburger · 02-10-2020 7:46pm

Trump drifting to 2.8 on Betfair.

Biden now as low as 1.6.

Augme · 02-10-2020 10:38pm

Market suspended again after news of Trump going to hospital has broken. Biden down to 1.51. not sure why Betfair are suspending it though, especially after it was announced he had covid and bets had been voided for that reason.

Muahahaha · 03-10-2020 1:06am

Not looking good for a Trump win right now, reports coming out that the White House have been lying all day about how serious his condition is and he had trouble getting on and off the helicopter.

We could yet end up with the grey statue that is Mike Pence. If that happens then Joe Biden will be the next US President by a landslide.

okidoki987 · 03-10-2020 1:41am

Muahahaha wrote: »

Not looking good for a Trump win right now, reports coming out that the White House have been lying all day about how serious his condition is and he had trouble getting on and off the helicopter.

He didn't look that bad getting off the helicopter.

[/QUOTE] We could yet end up with the grey statue that is Mike Pence. If that happens then Joe Biden will be the next US President by a landslide.[/QUOTE]

Very true.

Brussels Sprout · 03-10-2020 1:20pm

Market still suspended. Looks like the lowest trades carried out before that happened were Biden @ 1.51.

2 senators and the president of Notre Dame all appear to have contracted the virus at a White House reception for Amy Coney Barrett last week where people gathered mask-less and indoors. Jesus Christ...

Muahahaha · 03-10-2020 1:22pm

Anyone know of an open market on the US election? Betfair and the exchange are both suspended as is Paddy Power who have a statement on their US election page saying "Market suspended while we await clarity over the health of Donald Trump"

Brussels Sprout · 03-10-2020 2:31pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Anyone know of an open market on the US election? Betfair and the exchange are both suspended as is Paddy Power who have a statement on their US election page saying "Market suspended while we await clarity over the health of Donald Trump"

Going by Oddschecker it seems all of the major firms have suspended trading.

As an alternative approach, Predictit appears to be still operating (The site that Nate Silver derisively refers to as being populated by Scottish teens). They have Biden at 65c which I believe equates to a 65% probability or ~ 1.54 in decimal odds.

2020 US Election

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