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2020 US Election

Andrew00

Trump is currently best priced 6/4 with Biden at 8/11.

I can't believe how big a price Trump is, surely Biden won't win

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ianburke

not often you can lay a 15/1 shot at 2.9 surely your're filling your boots?

will throw 50 on him if he hits 4/1 just for the interest. the way he's drifting that bet may be on this weekend!

bobbyy gee

what are the odds of trump dying from covid before election

4068ac1elhodqr

Folks have regained their senses after the news that 'man has a flu'.
Back and stabilised to what it was prior 2.5 & 2.6 (BF) on re-opening bookie markets.
It's just another spin of the earths orbit folks.

[Deleted User]

Trump drifting to 2.8 on Betfair.

Biden now as low as 1.6.

Augme

Market suspended again after news of Trump going to hospital has broken. Biden down to 1.51. not sure why Betfair are suspending it though, especially after it was announced he had covid and bets had been voided for that reason.

Muahahaha

Not looking good for a Trump win right now, reports coming out that the White House have been lying all day about how serious his condition is and he had trouble getting on and off the helicopter.

We could yet end up with the grey statue that is Mike Pence. If that happens then Joe Biden will be the next US President by a landslide.

okidoki987

Muahahaha wrote: »

Not looking good for a Trump win right now, reports coming out that the White House have been lying all day about how serious his condition is and he had trouble getting on and off the helicopter.

He didn't look that bad getting off the helicopter.

[/QUOTE] We could yet end up with the grey statue that is Mike Pence. If that happens then Joe Biden will be the next US President by a landslide.[/QUOTE]

Very true.

Brussels Sprout

Market still suspended. Looks like the lowest trades carried out before that happened were Biden @ 1.51.

2 senators and the president of Notre Dame all appear to have contracted the virus at a White House reception for Amy Coney Barrett last week where people gathered mask-less and indoors. Jesus Christ...

Muahahaha

Anyone know of an open market on the US election? Betfair and the exchange are both suspended as is Paddy Power who have a statement on their US election page saying "Market suspended while we await clarity over the health of Donald Trump"

Brussels Sprout

Muahahaha wrote: »

Anyone know of an open market on the US election? Betfair and the exchange are both suspended as is Paddy Power who have a statement on their US election page saying "Market suspended while we await clarity over the health of Donald Trump"

Going by Oddschecker it seems all of the major firms have suspended trading.

As an alternative approach, Predictit appears to be still operating (The site that Nate Silver derisively refers to as being populated by Scottish teens). They have Biden at 65c which I believe equates to a 65% probability or ~ 1.54 in decimal odds.

Rjd2

Muahahaha wrote: »

Anyone know of an open market on the US election? Betfair and the exchange are both suspended as is Paddy Power who have a statement on their US election page saying "Market suspended while we await clarity over the health of Donald Trump"

betdaq and smarkets?

ShaneODub

I see Biden was priced at 1.2 before the Betfair market was suspended again. Quite close to fivethirthyeight's current model that puts him at 80% likelihood to win.

[Deleted User]

Even in a scenario where he recovers, probably gonna face long term consequences. Plus any angle of attempting to attack Biden on his health are virtually gone. Also looks like no debates remaining outside of the VP debates. A landslide looks increasingly likely tbh.

Muahahaha

Deleted User wrote: »

Even in a scenario where he recovers, probably gonna face long term consequences. Plus any angle of attempting to attack Biden on his health are virtually gone. Also looks like no debates remaining outside of the VP debates. A landslide looks increasingly likely tbh.

And just as you say that out comes the first poll suggesting it could well be a landslide, NBC/Wall St Journal poll is now giving Biden a whopping 14 point lead nationally which is up from 8% in the previous poll.

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1312745006348808192

Poll was taken after the debates but before Trump announced he has the virus. Other polls are saying that more than half the American public think Trump got the virus because he didnt take it seriously, ie Trump is to blame. There is no sympathy votes for him in that. Rumours also that some of Trumps campaign staff are refusing to go to work as they dont feel it is safe, like rats that are deserting a sinking ship.

Cirrus Incus

Trump winning now will be a bigger election upset than Truman in 1948.

Brussels Sprout

ShaneODub wrote: »

I see Biden was priced at 1.2 before the Betfair market was suspended again. Quite close to fivethirthyeight's current model that puts him at 80% likelihood to win.

That wasn't matched though - it's just the current highest available price. If you click on the icon on the left-hand side of Biden's name you can see what prices were matched. Lowest so far on him has been 1.51 although that'll likely fall quite a bit when the market reopens.

Muahahaha

Betfair Exchange is suspended again anyway, you would wonder what is going on in the background there

4068ac1elhodqr

Trump is back, and so are (most) of the markets.
Rep party to win with 4more years of MAGA @2.75.

Brussels Sprout

Looks like the market sentiment on the manner of Trump leaving Walter Reed has been positive toward him. Biden up to 1.59 now. This is in stark contrast to the most recent polls, although they lag by a number of days. Let's see what the next few days bring...

[Deleted User]

Biden way ahead in some polls. Even has a good lead in Arizona.

Trump is a busted flush.

4068ac1elhodqr

Back to 2.5 to 2.62 across all major markets, so back to what it was when this thread started.
Confidence is high with this one, the Donald, 4MY.

[Deleted User]

Trump 2.86 on betfair.

Not looking good for him.

4068ac1elhodqr

6 wrote: »

Trump 2.86 on betfair.
Not looking good for him.

Small price and the same price as before (pre the CCP-Virus).

Factor in comission and low liquidity with BFE.

2.5 or so is the going average bookie price across the spectrum of vendors.
Confidence is high, looking good, even after brushing off the infection.

The big question now is what what happen if elderly Joe catches it in the next few weeks...

[Deleted User]

Sienna Deep Rite wrote: »

Small price and the same price as before (pre the CCP-Virus).

Factor in comission and low liquidity with BFE.

2.5 or so is the going average bookie price across the spectrum of vendors.
Confidence is high, looking good, even after brushing off the infection.

The big question now is what what happen if elderly Joe catches it in the next few weeks...

You're in deep in Trump I'm guessing!

Dangerous game. He's 74, obese and has Covid. Has he a heart condition too?

Could easily be unfit to run for election

4068ac1elhodqr

6 wrote: »

You're in deep in Trump I'm guessing!
Dangerous game. He's 74, obese and has Covid. Has he a heart condition too?
Could easily be unfit to run for election

Waiting for live markets, to avail of x10 again, or for Joe to start bleeding out of the eyes again on live CNN TV, Joe had a couple of brain aneurysm in the past and will be an elderly 78 by November, a dangerous aul age, so you're deep in the elder Joe?

Another market of interest is KH @120+, she's on her tippy toes waiting to take over from the stand in, could easily push him down some stairs or something, very power hungry and focused.

ianburke

after the last election i'd sooner blow my money on trump. i don't trust these polls at all. wasn't clinton about 1.15 before a vote was counted? and she hit 1.06 on the exchange - brexit was identical bettting wise. have a back up for trump at 4/1...probably won't get matched unless its during the counting - but if hes anythiny more than 2/1 that night ill be backing him and couldn't care less about the polls after those two events i mentioned

[Deleted User]

Sienna Deep Rite wrote: »

Waiting for live markets, to avail of x10 again, or for Joe to start bleeding out of the eyes again on live CNN TV, Joe had a couple of brain aneurysm in the past and will be an elderly 78 by November, a dangerous aul age, so you're deep in the elder Joe?

Another market of interest is KH @120+, she's on her tippy toes waiting to take over from the stand in, could easily push him down some stairs or something, very power hungry and focused.

Biden is 77, isn't obese and hasn't covid. Not sure if he has a heart condition like Trump. Don't think so.

Harris or Pence could well be worth a fiver as backup.

4068ac1elhodqr

6 wrote: »

Biden is 77, isn't obese and hasn't covid. Not sure if he has a heart condition like Trump. Don't think so.

Well 78 this November, and the China Flu can bite anyone at any time.

Both of them have had various nips, tucks and procedures over the years and both perhaps on a cocktail of typical oap meds to keep their cogs turning.

One simple sign of health (lifeforce, or energy) is the voice and ability to raise ones voice. Joe is simply unable to raise his voice now, even has to lean in towards microphones. Suspect there is a weak handshake present also. Something also seems 'not right' with his eyes.

Whereas Donald can blast out his views at elevated decibels whenever needed, along with a good solid air fist pump.

6 wrote: »

Harris or Pence could well be worth a fiver as backup.

Harris on BFE a good consideration, did blip 320 for a very short while (160 currently), this will increase as the time nears (t-4wks) and her technical chances diminish, even then, has hurdles to jump, no harm with small coinage on 320-360(+).

Factor in a VP debate 02:00 GMT (Thurs), both of these 'spring chickens' should be able to equally hold their ground anyway.

BQQ

Pence has got to be worth a small interest
hard to see the Donald being fit by election day - he's looking very frail

Pence will likely keep the republican core and sway more of the middle ground than Trump
could be a real smash & grab by the GOP

4068ac1elhodqr

Sure Pence worthy of a token coin at 100/1 (will increase as days pass), he's a fairly cool cat compared to the Don.
One risk for KH would be an over empahsis on the black women angle, hard policy will always beats soft pity.

All Don needs to do if focus the high energy of his Tw posting, into deep breathing, particualy at the 'Day 10' point of the CCP Virus.
Not out of the woods yet, but is kicking fallen branches out of the way while heading towards a clearning.