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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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Meteorite58 wrote: »
... NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...
A few elevated showers/thunderstorms may be possible over Ulster during Thursday morning, clearing northwards. Elsewhere, a northward-moving shortwave may result in some elevated convection developing in the vicinity of the Isles of Scilly / Celtic Sea on Thursday morning, which may bring both an increase in mid-level cloud and perhaps a few elevated showers/thunderstorms into SE Ireland by early afternoon, continuing to lift north with time. Even if this elevated convection is not deep enough to produce lightning, the additional cloud cover spilling north may have some negative impact on surface heating. Assuming the cloud is not too extensive and/or fairly broken, diurnal heating could yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE by the afternoon and evening hours. Profiles look capped to surface-based convection initially, but mid-level cooling and lift associated with the aforementioned shortwave could lead to scattered thunderstorms erupting during the evening hours (if not earlier), especially in the vicinity of the Central Plain.
Similar to western Scotland (albeit profiles slightly more V-B-V), for a few hours the environment would be favourable for cell organisation and possibly supercells capable of producing large hail 3-4cm in diameter, frequent lightning and strong outflow gusts. A SVR has been issued primarily for the risk of locally damaging hail and flash flooding. This will be dependent on sufficient surface heating, otherwise surface-based convection may struggle to initiate. Either way, stronger forcing aloft will arrive towards mid-evening, and so thunderstorms are likely to become more numerous and increasingly elevated, especially across central/northern Ireland and eventually drifting northwards offshore over the Atlantic and towards the Hebrides. With several thunderstorms potentially training over similar areas, this will bring the risk of local flooding. Most storms will generally drift to the N or NNW, but if mid-level rotation becomes strong enough some may deviate more to the NE.
Good grief.
Don't think I've seen a convective weather forecast that serious for Ireland!
I know it's not a given but hail 3-4cm isn't going to have a pleasant outcome.0 -
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »What are you babbling about?
Dublin's in there like swim wear.
This is our moment :pac:
Ok I’ll say Greater Dublin then. Does that sound better?
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »What are you babbling about?
Dublin's in there like swim wear.
This is our moment :pac:
Ok I’ll say Greater Dublin then. Does that sound better? 0 -
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Those alcotumuls floccus and castellanus were reported at 11,000-12,000 feet at Dublin Airport and Casement tonight. Layers of upper instability, as seen in this ECM sounding for the Dublin area at 21Z. That moist layer just above 700 hPa will be the source of the instability that formed the clouds.
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(Moved post from event thread )
More on the way today ( edit ), might even see sparks in the SW. Some very heavy showers showing up and getting breezy and windy on the coasts.
ECM showing decent CAPE values in Leinster earlier in the day and later in Northern counties. Early afternoon very decent CAPE values in the SW, fair chance of thunderstorms and possibly a few along Southern coasts also.
Lapse rates good, Low level shear good. Deep layer Shear not bad, Lapse rates very good with very cold uppers spreading inland during the day. Bit of a negative tilt on the upper Low, nice vorticity , might see a few funnels.
So, over to us in the SW tomorrow afternoon, we will show you how it is done
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Big convective showers but no sparks here in Kerry, less showers in the afternoon although one going through now, sunshine breaking through at least, breezy. A few sparks now near Rathcormac Co Cork. Looks like a rough day in Northern counties.
6.2mm
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