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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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Meteorite58 wrote: »
MCS
...but we don't want it at 5 am of course - we want at 1 am for max effect :pac: 0 -
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... NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...
A few elevated showers/thunderstorms may be possible over Ulster during Thursday morning, clearing northwards. Elsewhere, a northward-moving shortwave may result in some elevated convection developing in the vicinity of the Isles of Scilly / Celtic Sea on Thursday morning, which may bring both an increase in mid-level cloud and perhaps a few elevated showers/thunderstorms into SE Ireland by early afternoon, continuing to lift north with time. Even if this elevated convection is not deep enough to produce lightning, the additional cloud cover spilling north may have some negative impact on surface heating. Assuming the cloud is not too extensive and/or fairly broken, diurnal heating could yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE by the afternoon and evening hours. Profiles look capped to surface-based convection initially, but mid-level cooling and lift associated with the aforementioned shortwave could lead to scattered thunderstorms erupting during the evening hours (if not earlier), especially in the vicinity of the Central Plain.
Similar to western Scotland (albeit profiles slightly more V-B-V), for a few hours the environment would be favourable for cell organisation and possibly supercells capable of producing large hail 3-4cm in diameter, frequent lightning and strong outflow gusts. A SVR has been issued primarily for the risk of locally damaging hail and flash flooding. This will be dependent on sufficient surface heating, otherwise surface-based convection may struggle to initiate. Either way, stronger forcing aloft will arrive towards mid-evening, and so thunderstorms are likely to become more numerous and increasingly elevated, especially across central/northern Ireland and eventually drifting northwards offshore over the Atlantic and towards the Hebrides. With several thunderstorms potentially training over similar areas, this will bring the risk of local flooding. Most storms will generally drift to the N or NNW, but if mid-level rotation becomes strong enough some may deviate more to the NE.0 -
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Meteorite58 wrote: »
... NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...
A few elevated showers/thunderstorms may be possible over Ulster during Thursday morning, clearing northwards. Elsewhere, a northward-moving shortwave may result in some elevated convection developing in the vicinity of the Isles of Scilly / Celtic Sea on Thursday morning, which may bring both an increase in mid-level cloud and perhaps a few elevated showers/thunderstorms into SE Ireland by early afternoon, continuing to lift north with time. Even if this elevated convection is not deep enough to produce lightning, the additional cloud cover spilling north may have some negative impact on surface heating. Assuming the cloud is not too extensive and/or fairly broken, diurnal heating could yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE by the afternoon and evening hours. Profiles look capped to surface-based convection initially, but mid-level cooling and lift associated with the aforementioned shortwave could lead to scattered thunderstorms erupting during the evening hours (if not earlier), especially in the vicinity of the Central Plain.
Similar to western Scotland (albeit profiles slightly more V-B-V), for a few hours the environment would be favourable for cell organisation and possibly supercells capable of producing large hail 3-4cm in diameter, frequent lightning and strong outflow gusts. A SVR has been issued primarily for the risk of locally damaging hail and flash flooding. This will be dependent on sufficient surface heating, otherwise surface-based convection may struggle to initiate. Either way, stronger forcing aloft will arrive towards mid-evening, and so thunderstorms are likely to become more numerous and increasingly elevated, especially across central/northern Ireland and eventually drifting northwards offshore over the Atlantic and towards the Hebrides. With several thunderstorms potentially training over similar areas, this will bring the risk of local flooding. Most storms will generally drift to the N or NNW, but if mid-level rotation becomes strong enough some may deviate more to the NE.
Good grief.
Don't think I've seen a convective weather forecast that serious for Ireland!
I know it's not a given but hail 3-4cm isn't going to have a pleasant outcome.0 -
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