Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

Kermit.de.frog · 03-07-2020 8:02pm

I luv storms

M.T. Cranium · 04-07-2020 7:15am

Things are now looking quite active for the late overnight and Sunday morning time frame, unstable westerly flow with embedded troughs will be the scenario, possible fast moving squally showers or thunderstorms, small hail, local wind damage, under a strong jet stream that looks like it got lost on the way to October or November.

First Up · 04-07-2020 7:17am

M.T. Cranium wrote:

Things are now looking quite active for the late overnight and Sunday morning time frame, unstable westerly flow with embedded troughs will be the scenario, possible fast moving squally showers or thunderstorms, small hail, local wind damage, under a strong jet stream that looks like it got lost on the way to October or November.

Any parts of the country at most risk?

Donegal Storm · 04-07-2020 11:03am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

That hot spot looks around Thurles / Cashel or thereabouts ?

Near Sligo features well.

I'd assume that spot is some sort of error? Hard to believe one random non-descript spot in Tipperary is by far the most thundery place in the country!

Also locally I think I've only experienced thunder/lightning once this year so the Donegal colours seem a bit generous

pauldry · 04-07-2020 11:04am

The West and Northwest look like bearing the brunt of this with 120kph gusts possible in Finner or Sligo airport

Meteorite58 · 04-07-2020 11:28am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I'd assume that spot is some sort of error? Hard to believe one random non-descript spot in Tipperary is by far the most thundery place in the country!

Also locally I think I've only experienced thunder/lightning once this year so the Donegal colours seem a bit generous

Must look into it further when I have time .

Gonzo · 04-07-2020 11:30am

that thunder chart is certainly right for my area, south-east Meath with a grey colour showing 0 days of thunder and lightning.

Gaoth Laidir · 04-07-2020 12:10pm

What isn't an error is that blank spot through NE Kildare. Have seen f all here this year.

Oneiric 3 · 04-07-2020 4:43pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

I'd assume that spot is some sort of error? Hard to believe one random non-descript spot in Tipperary is by far the most thundery place in the country!

Also locally I think I've only experienced thunder/lightning once this year so the Donegal colours seem a bit generous

Seems about right for here, underplaying it if anything as we had a fair amount of days with thunder observed during the first quart of the year.

Mortelaro · 04-07-2020 4:52pm

Gonzo wrote: »

that thunder chart is certainly right for my area, south-east Meath with a grey colour showing 0 days of thunder and lightning.

its wrong for parts of East wicklow anyway as all of east wicklow had last weekends storms
Here in SE Wicklow I've had 3, I think

Oneiric 3 · 04-07-2020 5:23pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

its wrong for parts of East wicklow anyway as all of east wicklow had last weekends storms
Here in SE Wicklow I've had 3, I think

Seems the map is based on Sferic data, which is at best crap and at worst, downright misleading as it only picks up a fraction of lightning occurrences in reality with a bias toward cloud to ground.

M.T. Cranium · 04-07-2020 5:39pm

As to potential overnight and Sunday, would say all regions have potential since the prime generator will be unstable troughs embedded in fast westerly flow. At a guess, the Galway to Dublin corridor perhaps more favoured than other areas but differential may be slight. There seems to have been a downgrade as far as met service are concerned but I was surprised to see that after first checking the latest obs since those had come in about as expected.

In any case, this would likely become a nowcasting challenge through the period especially Sunday morning, so stay tuned, radar watching commences shortly.

SlowBlowin · 04-07-2020 8:17pm

Gusts here 20 minutes ago, Sneem area without power.

PukkaStukka · 05-07-2020 11:04am

Several sferics reported over the Irish sea this morning. Squally morning with convection about

SlowBlowin · 17-07-2020 10:37pm

Met.ie showing potential thunderstorm activity in west Kerry at 6 am tomorrow.

Any further info on the likelihood of this occurring ?

Danno · 18-07-2020 12:32am

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Met.ie showing potential thunderstorm activity in west Kerry at 6 am tomorrow.

Any further info on the likelihood of this occurring ?

I would be surprised if this were to materialise. Thunderstorm activity in a relatively flat-line west-to-east flow at this time of year is quite rare.

SlowBlowin · 18-07-2020 5:05am

Danno wrote: »

I would be surprised if this were to materialise. Thunderstorm activity in a relatively flat-line west-to-east flow at this time of year is quite rare.

Met.ie now showing thunderstorms at 8 am.

repulsebay321 · 18-07-2020 8:02am

Heavy downpours in Cork in the last hour.

Meteorite58 · 22-07-2020 11:42pm

Fri ( low chance in the W ), early Sat morning ( passage of an unstable trough ) and Sat some chance of thunderstorms, more so Saturday from the afternoon. Charts showing cold uppers spread over the country on Saturday, decent shear and lapse rates coinciding with peak diurnal heating possible. Heavy showers, some of hail maybe. Would think the Eastern half of the country with best chance of thunderstorms as convection matures as it crosses the country from W to E. Some nice convergence near the S and E coasts.

Meteorite58 · 23-07-2020 11:53pm

An interesting day Saturday perhaps during the passage of an unstable trough producing heavy showers and giving thunderstorm potential.

Meteorite58 · 24-07-2020 10:59am

Hi Res AROME looking good for some thunderstorms tomorrow.

Meteorite58 · 24-07-2020 8:57pm

S, SE and E look like getting the heaviest rain tomorrow afternoon as convection matures crossing the country into the evening ( parts of the Midlands and N could see heavy rain also ), a bit of spot flooding in a few places perhaps.

DP's 12 to 14C in general .

Thinking that it might be possible to get warnings perhaps if thunderstorms materialize to some extent in the afternoon as they progress across the country .