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FG to just do nothing for the next 5 years.

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Comments

  • #7562
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Bowie wrote: »
    Hey, I'm not buying your holier than thou party line. I think even FG ministers would snigger at your protests. Cronyism is there, always.
    Even when he's given preferred bidder status I'd imagine. Even when we sell him the company so we can give him the contract, certainly :)
    I'm no fan of Trump. You must be thinking of Varadkar who will do him a solid calling Clare Co. Co. for him and has his book.


    What are you blathering on about now?
    I sense you are frustrated with me, over my previous accusations.
    All I've ever claimed is FG award Mr. O'Brien a lot of contracts and it's generally a bad deal for the tax payer. This is a matter of record. The only topic up for debate is why?

    As I said before, FG do not award state contracts, the Civil Service does.
    https://www.etenders.gov.ie/


  • #7563
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Bowie wrote: »
    I gave examples on the fact he does a lot of business with FG.

    Efanton works for a company that won a state contract providing security software to county councils.
    Therefore, Efranton is corrupt and a FG fanboy.

    Am I doing this correctly?


  • #7564
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    efanton wrote: »

    I mean put it this way, which parties have something to lose if another election happens. It's a very short list FF and FG.

    That is a very odd interpretation of recent events and polls.

    FG riding high on circa 35% for three polls running. Even if they do not get that vote, they look to certainly increase of their vote share from 21%.

    FF looks like they could lose out.
    The Greens also could lose out.

    SD's and PBP/SOL would lose out at the hands of SF.

    In other words, the winners of another election would be FG and SF by the looks of it. Many other parties would lose out.

    Meanwhile FG are going to be left on their lonesome. Its unlikely the Green's of FF would go round two in coalition talks so who else will play with FG. If FG doubled their seats they would still be ten shy of being able to form a government, and to be honest who truly thinks that even achievable.

    It might not be a bad option for FG. Let SF and FF at it, see how SF oversell and under deliver, remind people of FF cute-whorism and FG will be back in power with a nice big rump come the next election.

    As I always, said, its win-win for FG really.
    Very hard to tell. It all depends on whether the electorate will vote tactically or not. My suspicion is that they will, knowing that the outcome can only result in a FF/FG coalition of some kind, or a SF lead government.

    That outcome can also lead to a FG majority government if they get 60+ seats


  • #7565
    efanton
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭efanton


    markodaly wrote: »
    That is a very odd interpretation of recent

    That outcome can also lead to a FG majority government if they get 60+ seats

    I doubt that even you would believe that remotely possible.

    If FG got 40 seats it would be a good day out for them. On an extremely lucky day 43 at the very most.

    We will have to wait and see, will there be a second election? all the signals coming for FG are pointing to that.

    If there is, the next big question is will FF ditch Micheal Martin in a hurry so that they could have a new leader in place, before canvassing and interviews start?
    If they do who will replace him? And would he/she make clear from the start whether FF are open to a coalition of any kind, and with which parties.

    After that its simply a numbers game. SF and FG will definitely gain seats, what is important is will the smaller parties gain seats too? The biggest losers will be the independents in my opinion. 19 seats in the Dail that for the most part are totally wasted. The electorate. will want to make sure a government can be formed.

    I suspect that there will be a transfer agreement, to maximise the possibility of a SF led coalition, it certainly would make a lot of sense. I dont agree that the smaller parties will be eaten up by SF as with a transfer agreement in place they will benefit from the massive surpluses that SF will have from those candidates that are elected in the first couple of rounds. SF need the smaller parties to gain seats if they ever wish to form a government that does not include FG or FF.

    When you consider that 29 of the 37 SF candidates were elected by round 2, well ahead of any of the smaller parties, suggesting that a transfer agreement could only favour SF is certainly not the case. In fact its patently the opposite.


  • #7566
    PommieBast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,993 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    markodaly wrote: »
    No point low balling a product but then adding in lots of €€€ for support and maintenance after the fact.
    That is more or less what took down Carillion.

    JohnnyFlash wrote: »
    FF and SF would work if they had the support of independents.
    It is FF choosing between FG and SF (anyone seriously expect FG-SF?) and then it is just making up the numbers.


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  • #7567
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,062 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    PommieBast wrote: »
    That is more or less what took down Carillion.


    It is FF choosing between FG and SF (anyone seriously expect FG-SF?) and then it is just making up the numbers.

    Same as FG FF now.
    The greens could be dropped and numbers could still be made up to form a coalition.
    I honestly think the Greens are the stumbling block here, though it will be played out by most as FG.
    Rural dwellers won't be happy with what the Greens want re carbon emissions.


  • #7568
    Edgware
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,874 ✭✭✭Edgware


    Any left wing party that does a deal with SF will end up the same way that the P.D.s. Greens Labour did after dealing with FF and FG.
    Dont feed the crocodile.


  • #7569
    dundalkfc10
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,719 ✭✭✭dundalkfc10


    https://twitter.com/fionnansheahan/status/1268231698271084547?s=19

    Simon cares about lives when it suits him


  • #7570
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,012 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    PommieBast wrote: »
    If voting patterns remained the same SF running more candidates would at the very least decimate PBP, and probably cost Greens/SD a few TDs as well.

    I think the Greens messed up. They caught the wave of discontentment but were eager to enter talks with FF/FG. I think that will damage them.
    Hard to tell how SF will fare, jaded voters might drift back to FG but I don't think the FG Covid bump will last long enough.
    PBP and SF might attract similar minded floating voters but they will both either gain or lose based on that not canceling out each other.
    The SD's need to get some PR working and more candidates.
    I think FF got the traditional bump from people being annoyed with FG, it's just not as automatic as it use to be.
    Thanks to social media the smaller parties have a platform and the public can get information. I don't follow PBP on Facebook but RBB appears quite effectively in my feed pretty often speaking on clear points and issues. It would be a big mistake for FF/FG to continue to view every other party as the indistinguishable 'the left'.


  • #7571
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,012 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    dundalkfc10 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/fionnansheahan/status/1268231698271084547?s=19

    Simon cares about lives when it suits him

    Coveney is a good man on that topic.


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  • #7572
    StackSteevens
    Closed Accounts Posts: 873 ✭✭✭StackSteevens


    Richard Hillman wrote: »

    It's quite remarkable that FG are dictating n the negotiations for government. FF and the Greens are going to FG with their demands and are been batted off.

    Agreed.

    Wouldn't it be great if the two other parties were to walk out of the talks in a huff and precipate the inevitable election, a few weeks before before the FG and Green Party members put an end to the whole charade?


  • #7573
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,480 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    StackSteevens wrote: »
    Agreed.

    Wouldn't it be great if the two other parties were to walk out of the talks in a huff and precipate the inevitable election, a few weeks before before the FG and Green Party members put an end to the whole charade?

    Probably more apt to call them Avoidance of Blame For Another Election Talks rather than Government Formation Talks


  • #7574
    dundalkfc10
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,719 ✭✭✭dundalkfc10


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Probably more apt to call them Avoidance of Blame For Another Election Talks rather than Government Formation Talks

    According to alot on here, The Govt was formed already.


  • #7575
    satguy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,932 ✭✭✭satguy


    FF do not have a strong leader at the moment,, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

    The Greens also seem to think, that they have the wrong man in the driving seat, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

    With that said,, FG are calling the shots, in fact, this is what Leo seems to be thinking.

    "" A SECOND Irish election in less than six months could be on the cards, with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar increasingly confident after poll numbers for his Fine Gael party crept up, an expert has suggested.""

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1291260/leo-varadkar-ireland-general-election-coronavirus-covid19-fine-gael

    I for one, hope they do pull the trigger on a second GE,, it would give us all a chance to see what a sucker punch looks like, when FG only get 25 seats.
    It would also force FF to sit down and talk to SF, like they should have from the start.

    Next GE
    FF 50
    SF 46
    FG 25
    GP 4
    Lab 7
    OTHERS ...


  • #7576
    efanton
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭efanton


    satguy wrote: »
    FF do not have a strong leader at the moment,, in

    Next GE
    FF 50
    SF 46
    FG 25
    GP 4
    Lab 7
    OTHERS ...

    How in Gods name can you see FF getting 50 seats?

    Forecasting FF would gain a few seats would be a brave move in my opinion, but to suggest they are going to jump so far ahead of FG and SF is extremely optimistic at best, delusional at worst. Even the SF forecast is likely to be a very good day out for SF, and I am a SF supporter.


  • #7577
    Edgware
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,874 ✭✭✭Edgware


    satguy wrote: »
    FF do not have a strong leader at the moment,, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

    The Greens also seem to think, that they have the wrong man in the driving seat, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

    With that said,, FG are calling the shots, in fact, this is what Leo seems to be thinking.

    "" A SECOND Irish election in less than six months could be on the cards, with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar increasingly confident after poll numbers for his Fine Gael party crept up, an expert has suggested.""

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1291260/leo-varadkar-ireland-general-election-coronavirus-covid19-fine-gael

    I for one, hope they do pull the trigger on a second GE,, it would give us all a chance to see what a sucker punch looks like, when FG only get 25 seats.
    It would also force FF to sit down and talk to SF, like they should have from the start.

    Next GE
    FF 50
    SF 46
    FG 25
    GP 4
    Lab 7
    OTHERS ...
    Would you have the numbers for Saturday nights lottery by any chance?


  • #7578
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    efanton wrote: »
    IIf FG got 40 seats it would be a good day out for them. On an extremely lucky day 43 at the very most.

    You are being way too pessimistic tbh about FG but as you have bet your entire repetition on FG being 'finished' I would say that your bias is clouding the actual reality of your points.

    FG got 35 seats on 20.9% of the vote in 2020
    FG got 50 seats on 25.5% of the vote in 2016
    FG got 76 seats on 36.1% of the vote in 2011
    FG got 51 seats on 27.3% of the vote in 2007

    At the moment we have had three polls telling us that FG are on 35%.
    So, either they will go back down to 21-22% of the vote if there is another GE or they will get more votes than that.

    A good day for FG is 60-70 seats. Which is possible.







    I suspect that there will be a transfer agreement, to maximise the possibility of a SF led coalition, it certainly would make a lot of sense.

    I raised this very point prior to the GE. I even created a thread on it.
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058044762

    Its, of course, a good idea, but the history of the left in Ireland is split, infighting, basically doing the bollox.

    I dont agree that the smaller parties will be eaten up by SF as with a transfer agreement in place they will benefit from the massive surpluses that SF will have from those candidates that are elected in the first couple of rounds. SF need the smaller parties to gain seats if they ever wish to form a government that does not include FG or FF.

    That may be your opinion but that stats are clear here, the transfer from SF went to the left, especially to the likes of PBP/SOL and the SD's.
    I had a post about that, where there is an easy loss of about 8 seats between them there to SF.
    If SF run more candidates, they will eat up the vote from other left-wing parties, not from the likes of FF or FG. There is simply not enough left-wing vote out there to form a coalition, at this moment.
    In fact its patently the opposite.

    Then you don't understand the concept then of SF running more candidates in the next GE, which will eat up that transfer.


  • #7579
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,012 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Yeah I was surprised FF did as well as they did. The only way I can see varadkar sticking around for more than a year is if a GE is called and FG come out on top. I think the current talks are a sham.


  • #7580
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    satguy wrote: »

    Next GE
    FF 50
    SF 46
    FG 25
    GP 4
    Lab 7
    OTHERS ...

    Others == 28 seats??


  • #7581
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    efanton wrote: »
    How in Gods name can you see FF getting 50 seats?

    Forecasting FF would gain a few seats would be a brave move in my opinion, but to suggest they are going to jump so far ahead of FG and SF is extremely optimistic at best, delusional at worst. Even the SF forecast is likely to be a very good day out for SF, and I am a SF supporter.

    The numbers may be right, but swap FG for FF. That would be a better prediction.
    Still though, hard for form a government on the left on that, so it looks like a FG and FF government anyway...


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  • #7582
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    satguy wrote: »
    FF do not have a strong leader at the moment,, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

    The Greens also seem to think, that they have the wrong man in the driving seat, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

    With that said,, FG are calling the shots, in fact, this is what Leo seems to be thinking.

    "" A SECOND Irish election in less than six months could be on the cards, with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar increasingly confident after poll numbers for his Fine Gael party crept up, an expert has suggested.""

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1291260/leo-varadkar-ireland-general-election-coronavirus-covid19-fine-gael

    I for one, hope they do pull the trigger on a second GE,, it would give us all a chance to see what a sucker punch looks like, when FG only get 25 seats.
    It would also force FF to sit down and talk to SF, like they should have from the start.

    Next GE
    FF 50
    SF 46
    FG 25
    GP 4
    Lab 7
    OTHERS ...

    Ah, the Express Irish edition, a bastion of Brexitism, hater extraordinaire of Leo because its owners blame him for Europe and ironically a Tory owned publication
    A super source


  • #7583
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,480 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    He can't help letting the mask slip can he? What a cold heartless point of view.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1268511708152201217


  • #7584
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,012 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    He can't help letting the mask slip can he? What a cold heartless point of view.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1268511708152201217

    Jesus he has no subtlety about him. All lash out when criticised. MLM was right. He spoke empty waffle and then when it was pointed out got nasty. Shamefully trying to cadge some shine off the #blacklivesmatter IMO.


  • #7585
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    efanton wrote: »
    I suspect that there will be a transfer agreement, to maximise the possibility of a SF led coalition, it certainly would make a lot of sense. I dont agree that the smaller parties will be eaten up by SF as with a transfer agreement in place they will benefit from the massive surpluses that SF will have from those candidates that are elected in the first couple of rounds. SF need the smaller parties to gain seats if they ever wish to form a government that does not include FG or FF.

    When you consider that 29 of the 37 SF candidates were elected by round 2, well ahead of any of the smaller parties, suggesting that a transfer agreement could only favour SF is certainly not the case. In fact its patently the opposite.

    I think you are being very optimistic to suggest that there will be a transfer agreement for a number of reasons:

    (1) Sinn Fein have been unable to get any of the left-wing parties to sit down and discuss at any length a Programme for Government
    (2) Or is it the likes of PBP who have been rebuffed by Sinn Fein?
    (3) The left always splits and rarely transfers well. Labour called for one of these before when they were seen as left-wing and it didn't happen
    (4) Finally, and most importantly, an awful lot of people, even people who vote left-wing cannot bring themselves to give a preference to Sinn Fein.


  • #7586
    efanton
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭efanton


    markodaly wrote: »
    Y

    FG got 35 seats on 20.9% of the vote in 2020
    FG got 50 seats on 25.5% of the vote in 2016
    FG got 76 seats on 36.1% of the vote in 2011
    FG got 51 seats on 27.3% of the vote in 2007

    At the moment we have had three polls telling us that FG are on 35%.
    So, either they will go back down to 21-22% of the vote if there is another GE or they will get more votes than that.

    A good day for FG is 60-70 seats. Which is possible



    What you have not factored in on that assessment is some of those percentage points are being 'borrowed' from other parties and especially the Independents because of the coivd crisis. Many people are putting on the Team Ireland jersey when participating in those polls.
    Study the recent polls and you will see that virtually all the Independent vote is going to FG in those polls.

    With that in mind, the reality is that even on a good day in a general elections scenario, FG are at about 30% tops.

    Also you have not considered that its no longer the big two taking the lions share of the votes, its now three parties so you estimates need to be significantly moderated to take account of that.

    I would expect FG to gain seats, but a more realistic figure would be around the 38 to 41 seats in my opinion.

    Even on a good day I expect SF to be in and around the 44 to 45 seat mark.

    Of course much of this all depends on the FF vote. Will they drop Micheal Martin, and will they make their coalition option clear at the start of a campaign. If Martin stays then the FF vote will collapse and both SF and FG will gain a few more seats.


  • #7587
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    He can't help letting the mask slip can he? What a cold heartless point of view.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1268511708152201217

    What mask is this now?


  • #7588
    markodaly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,322 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    efanton wrote: »
    What that in mind, the reality is that even on a good day in a general elections scenario, FG are at about 30% tops.

    That will give them about 60 seats.


    I would expect FG to gain seats, but a more realistic figure would be around the 38 to 41 seats in my opinion.

    What analysis did you come up with to form that opinion?


  • #7589
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,480 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    markodaly wrote: »
    What mask is this now?

    As somebody else said the one where he 'pretends he is Obama in kitschy socks when, in fact, behind the mask he is Thatcher in kitschy socks'


  • #7590
    efanton
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭efanton


    blanch152 wrote: »
    I think you are being very optimistic to suggest that there will be a transfer agreement for a number of reasons:

    (1) Sinn Fein have been unable to get any of the left-wing parties to sit down and discuss at any length a Programme for Government
    (2) Or is it the likes of PBP who have been rebuffed by Sinn Fein?
    (3) The left always splits and rarely transfers well. Labour called for one of these before when they were seen as left-wing and it didn't happen
    (4) Finally, and most importantly, an awful lot of people, even people who vote left-wing cannot bring themselves to give a preference to Sinn Fein.

    Its easy really, I am sure even you are capable of simple arithmetic too.

    Without Labour, SF needed an additional 13 seats even if the rest of the left leaning parties all agreed. SF choose not to involve any independents in a potential talks process for obvious reasons. What was the point of even starting talks if you are still going to require 13 independents?

    Being that the potential numbers were not realistically there, SF did the intelligent thing and didn't bother wasting the country's time going through a talks process that was unlikely to form a government. Maybe that was something the Greens and FG should have considered before wasting yet another month being that neither seem to want to compromise, which surely is part and parcel of any coalition process.


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  • #7591
    PommieBast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,993 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    Bowie wrote: »
    I think the Greens messed up. They caught the wave of discontentment but were eager to enter talks with FF/FG. I think that will damage them.
    I think the real damage will come from botching the negotiations rather than just the mere act of going into them. Half of the Greens' TDs never actually reached quota whereas the other half got in comfortably, so I do wonder whether this split coincides with what seems to be the two factions within the party.

    Bowie wrote: »
    The SD's need to get some PR working and more candidates.
    Quite. So far I have been disappointed with them.


This discussion has been closed.
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