FG to just do nothing for the next 5 years.

efanton

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Funny how the 'All Day Crew' around here are so quick to ask for evidence when someone suggest Adams was top dog in the IRA, or that SF owning 50 properties and having 200 staff might be a bit suspicious, but when asked for evidence themselves they start humming, hawing, and trying to do the online equivalent of 'look over there, it's a lion!'.

They are hopping mad these days. Class to see. :cool:

SF do own a lot of the offices used by their representatives. What of it?

All bought from declared and perfectly legal donations, unless you have evidence to the contrary.

Of course having constituency offices and support in all 32 counties of Ireland helps too.

How many constituency offices does FG have in the six counties being that the official FG title is Fine Gael - United Ireland Party.

I'm surprised FG don't own more of their own offices being that they have more support from property developers. Its certainly not due to lack of funds.
Why rent when you can buy, unless of course you might feel there might not be need of them in the future.

What really galls you is more likely that SF seem to be getting not only more public support in the polling booth but increasing financial support too.
That £1.5 million donation from Billy Hampton might even buy a few more offices.

Brendan Bendar

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Funny how the 'All Day Crew' around here are so quick to ask for evidence when someone suggest Adams was top dog in the IRA, or that SF owning 50 properties and having 200 staff might be a bit suspicious, but when asked for evidence themselves they start humming, hawing, and trying to do the online equivalent of 'look over there, it's a lion!'.

They are hopping mad these days. Class to see. :cool:

All day and all night John, I have to chuckle ,John, when I hear these handpumps looking for evidence on stuff.

Very reticent when asked for evidence on the issues you quite rightly point out.

Like who actually runs the show.

Not those two boilers MLMDor MO’ N.....

Not in a million years.

efanton

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

All day and all night John, I have to chuckle ,John, when I hear these handpumps looking for evidence on stuff.

Very reticent when asked for evidence on the issues you quite rightly point out.

Like who actually runs the show.

Not those two boilers MLMDor MO’ N.....

Not in a million years.

So you demand evidence for claims, but yet you seem to provide non when making claims yourself.

Hypocrite or what?

Brendan Bendar

efanton wrote: »

So you demand evidence for claims, but yet you seem to provide non when making claims yourself.

Hypocrite or what?

I don’t ‘demand’ anything, buddy.

What “claims” do I make that demand evidence, dude.

The operative word here, horse, is “claims”.

FrancieBrady

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

All day and all night John, I have to chuckle ,John, when I hear these handpumps looking for evidence on stuff.

Very reticent when asked for evidence on the issues you quite rightly point out.

Like who actually runs the show.

Not those two boilers MLMDor MO’ N.....

Not in a million years.

Says Brendan who has been insinuating stuff about others since joining.

That gave me a giggle.

Brendan Bendar

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Says Brendan who has been insinuating stuff about others since joining.

That gave me a giggle.

First one you had since the middle of March,Francesco.

Hammering the keyboard up in the Square since then.

Must be a team leader by now surely.

FrancieBrady

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

First one you had since the middle of March,Francesco.

Hammering the keyboard up in the Square since then.

Must be a team leader by now surely.

QED among many other QED's.

It's ok for Brendi to insinuate and point, but not for others it seems. Oh the arrogance.

James Brown

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Funny how the 'All Day Crew' around here are so quick to ask for evidence when someone suggest Adams was top dog in the IRA, or that SF owning 50 properties and having 200 staff might be a bit suspicious, but when asked for evidence themselves they start humming, hawing, and trying to do the online equivalent of 'look over there, it's a lion!'.

They are hopping mad these days. Class to see. :cool:

Pretty specific charge dude. You know the IRA was an illegal organisation right? I mean you've as much chance of a crooked politician holding his hand up to fraud. Was he, does it happen? We can only surmise. Dude.
Should I give you the Trump/tinfoil hat ****e now?

James Brown

Mortelaro wrote: »

No specific's given by you
Please state the evidence for your allegations
Have you any at all
Otherwise I'm the queen of sheba
Theres no evidence but I am

I gave examples on the fact he does a lot of business with FG. What am I claiming that's not specific for you?
He rinses the tax payer thanks to FG and FG go back for more and the tax payer gets rinsed again.
We don't know why, but it certainly happens.

efanton

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

I don’t ‘demand’ anything, buddy.

What “claims” do I make that demand evidence, dude.

The operative word here, horse, is “claims”.

I am not a horse nor your horse so please either use my name or use nothing.

So I can make any claim I like in an argument and you will not contest it?
Is that what you are saying?

dundalkfc10

You don’t hear Fine Gael condemning the assassinations carried out on the orders of Michael Collins and neither would you expect Fianna Fáil to condemn Eamon de Valera for his role in the Civil War or for the executions of republicans during the second world War but Sinn Féin must be seen to condone IRA by FG and FF

efanton

looks like FG are getting very jittery.

As per topic heading FG have spent nearly 150 days since the election result were announced doing a little as possible and delaying as much as possible and it looks like their delaying tactics are now going to bite them in the ar$e hard.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/programme-for-government-must-include-fiscal-responsibility-varadkar-1.4269097

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/next-week-before-programme-for-government-likely-to-be-agreed--varadkar-1003142.html

Varadkar told his TDs last night it is likely to be next week before a programme can be agreed, if it can be agreed.

But some came away from that meeting feeling downbeat about the chances of a deal getting done at all.

Leo thought he could play hardball with both FF and the Green's hoping they would roll over at the last minute and still form a government in time for important legislation to be put before the Dail.

It now looks likely that no government will be formed, and Leo has already gone into damage limitation mode, rolling out the first of many excuses as to why FG could not compromise nor reach a consensus with his would be coalition partners.

With no agreement this week, and it unlikely a government can be formed, given that a postal vote will take up to two weeks for a postal vote to take place for the FG FF and Green parties, there are now only a matter of days. a week at most for him to form a government. At this stage I think the Green's will double down on Leo's hardball tactics and play it out until the very last minute, and even then its looking like they will not give ground on a few issues.

So the only question left to ask is when does he take a trip to the Park and admit he has failed to from a government, and ask the President call for a new election. No doubt he will delay and do nothing ( a bit of a theme forming here), for the next week and wait till the last minute on Friday week.

We will see then if FG get 35% of the vote, I highly doubt it.
Roll on GE2.

Bishop of hope

efanton wrote: »

looks like FG are getting very jittery.

As per topic heading FG have spent nearly 150 days since the election result were announced doing a little as possible and delaying as much as possible and it looks like their delaying tactics are now going to bite them in the ar$e hard.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/programme-for-government-must-include-fiscal-responsibility-varadkar-1.4269097

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/next-week-before-programme-for-government-likely-to-be-agreed--varadkar-1003142.html




Leo thought he could play hardball with both FF and the Green's hoping they would roll over at the last minute and still form a government in time for important legislation to be put before the Dail.

It now looks likely that no government will be formed, and Leo has already gone into damage limitation mode, rolling out the first of many excuses as to why FG could not compromise nor reach a consensus with his would be coalition partners.

With no agreement this week, and it unlikely a government can be formed, given that a postal vote will take up to two weeks for a postal vote to take place for the FG FF and Green parties, there are now only a matter of days. a week at most for him to form a government. At this stage I think the Green's will double down on Leo's hardball tactics and play it out until the very last minute, and even then its looking like they will not give ground on a few issues.

So the only question left to ask is when does he take a trip to the Park and admit he has failed to from a government, and ask the President call for a new election. No doubt he will delay and do nothing ( a bit of a theme forming here), for the next week and wait till the last minute on Friday week.

We will see then if FG get 35% of the vote, I highly doubt it.
Roll on GE2.

So the FF SF Govt is off too?
The greens might get involved in that round of fornication too if it gains traction, but I wonder how many of their reps want an election either.
FF and the greens have both lost ground in the polls, I'd say there will be a deal done myself now, but FG will be aware that if they give too much to the greens they will vex their rural base.
That might just be the biggest stumbling block.

James Brown

Bishop of hope wrote: »

So the FF SF Govt is off too?
The greens might get involved in that round of fornication too if it gains traction, but I wonder how many of their reps want an election either.
FF and the greens have both lost ground in the polls, I'd say there will be a deal done myself now, but FG will be aware that if they give too much to the greens they will vex their rural base.
That might just be the biggest stumbling block.

FF wouldn't even wear talks with SF so can't see that. Mind MM might be pretty desperate and push for it. I think it would knock SF way back next election. They'd lose my vote any way.
I think FG are just cocky enough to want another election. I think as Covid dissipates so to will any goodwill Varadkar and Co. gleaned from the crisis. The distraction and 'all in this together' will come crashing down as the realities of 'you're on your own' government FG style sinks back in. Especially with the election handing them their cards and them still there. Like the proverbial house guest, like bad fish, they tend to stink after a couple of days. There'll be a sense of 'you're still here?'.

PommieBast

Bowie wrote: »

FF wouldn't even wear talks with SF so can't see that. Mind MM might be pretty desperate and push for it. I think it would knock SF way back next election. They'd lose my vote any way.

I thought it was more MM personally rather than FF as a whole who were against joining SF, so was expecting him to be pushed aside by now.

James Brown

PommieBast wrote: »

I thought it was more MM personally rather than FF as a whole who were against joining SF, so was expecting him to be pushed aside by now.

Really? I wasn't sure seemed he was keen but got knocked back. You could be right but he strikes me as a desperate man short on time.

efanton

Bishop of hope wrote: »

So the FF SF Govt is off too?
The greens might get involved in that round of fornication too if it gains traction, but I wonder how many of their reps want an election either.
FF and the greens have both lost ground in the polls, I'd say there will be a deal done myself now, but FG will be aware that if they give too much to the greens they will vex their rural base.
That might just be the biggest stumbling block.

I seriously think any coalition between FF and SF wit Micheal Martin at the wheel is not even remotely possible.

To me it looks like almost every party has come to the opinion that GE2 is the only way to sort it out.

I mean put it this way, which parties have something to lose if another election happens. It's a very short list FF and FG.

FF might quickly save themselves by pulling the ejection handle on Michael Martin, but if they could do that quickly and have a new leader in place before the leaders debates then not only will their chances improve, but a coalition deal with SF might even be on the cards.

Meanwhile FG are going to be left on their lonesome. Its unlikely the Green's of FF would go round two in coalition talks so who else will play with FG. If FG doubled their seats they would still be ten shy of being able to form a government, and to be honest who truly thinks that even achievable.

Its really down to how may extra seats will SF gain, and how many seats will the smalller left of centre parties gain.

THese were the seats won in the January election
SF 37
FF 38
FG 35
Greens 12
Lab 6
PBP 5
SD 6
AON 1
IND 19
And of course last but not least Joan Collins who doesnt know whether she is an independent or a political party all to herself. 1

If SF wanted to go in government without either FF or FG then they and the other parties other parties (Lab, Greens, PBP, SD, AON) would need to win an extra 13 seats between them. That's certainly very possible especially if the FF vote collapsed.

If FF changed leadership and their vote did not collapse, and the were agreeable to to a coalition with SF ( a lot of IF's I know) then a SF/FF coalition could well be on the cards, but personally I think it more likely that the FF vote will slide even more. What SF might gain FF will probably lose so we would be back to where we are now with a third party being required and FF wanting a coalition with SF.

Having said all that, the electorate are not as stupid as some might claim. Knowing that a very split vote will result in FG trying to form yet another failed coalition they might go all out and drop the independent vote and with those extra seats going to parties instead a SF lead coalition that does not include FF or FG could well be on the cards.

Very hard to tell. It all depends on whether the electorate will vote tactically or not. My suspicion is that they will, knowing that the outcome can only result in a FF/FG coalition of some kind, or a SF lead government.

efanton

Bowie wrote: »

Really? I wasn't sure seemed he was keen but got knocked back. You could be right but he strikes me as a desperate man short on time.

Micheal Martin is very much ani-SF

There is a large section of FF that openly support the idea of a SF/FF coalition.
But large certainly does not mean majority.

If FF take another hammering during an election then they are more likely to be open to a SF/FF coalition, but then you have the problem of SF gaining seats, FF losing seats and together not having the 80 seats between them.
If there is a leadership contest within FF, which seems inevitable, I think its going to become quickly clear whether a SF/FF coalition is even possible. My personal opinion is by openly admitting that a SF coalition is possible FF would save the seats they have and might even increase seats. It would all depend on the leadership contest within FF and what falls out of that.

Bishop of hope

efanton wrote: »

There is a large section of FF that openly support the idea of a SF/FF coalition.
But large certainly does not mean majority.

If FF take another hammering during an election then they are more likely to be open to a SF/FF coalition, but then you have the problem of SF gaining seats, FF losing seats and together not having the 80 seats between them.
If there is a leadership contest within FF, which seems inevitable, I think its going to become quickly clear whether a SF/FF coalition is even possible. My personal opinion is by openly admitting that a SF coalition is possible FF would save the seats they have and might even increase seats. It would all depend on the leadership contest within FF and what falls out of that.

If FF take a hammering in a new election, I personally think they'll not go in with anyone.
They will definitely want a new leader at that stage and will console themselves on the back benches in a hope of rebuilding off of Govt unpopularity during the next Dail.
FG might just do as they say and leave it to SF if they increase their vote and seats, see how they scramble something together.
SF might actually be serious about governing and being in control, but the penny anti left aren't imo, they're just mostly mouthpieces.
SF are going to get it hard to take anybody on board with them being the major party.
I can't see FF or FG backing MLMD as Taoiseach at any price.

PommieBast

efanton wrote: »

I mean put it this way, which parties have something to lose if another election happens. It's a very short list FF and FG.

If voting patterns remained the same SF running more candidates would at the very least decimate PBP, and probably cost Greens/SD a few TDs as well.

Edgware

An election now will throw up a completely different result. There's no guarantee that Sf will increase and Fg will pull back lost seats.

efanton

PommieBast wrote: »

If voting patterns remained the same SF running more candidates would at the very least decimate PBP, and probably cost Greens/SD a few TDs as well.

I'm certain that SF have learned from their previous mistakes. The main one obviously was not fielding enough candidates, but one of the other lessons was vote transfer between parties.

SF had huge surpluses, and they went absolutely nowhere. In a few constituencies they might have run a second candidate but in the majority the surpluses simply would not have been big enough to warrant a second candidate.

I would be extremely surprised if another election is called that there will not be a very comprehensive and clearly signalled transfer policy between SF and other parties that would be agreeable to a SF coalition.

That would mean for instance that voters giving a 1st preference to SF would be encouraged by SF to give their number 2, 3, and 4 to PBP, SD's, Lab and greens for instance, not necessarily in that order and obviously only if a transfer pact had been agreed before hand between those parties.
In return people giving their 1st preference to one of these parties would be encouraged to give their number 2 vote to SF.

So far from decimating their opposition, with a clear and pre-agreed transfer agreement, those smaller parties would actually benefit.
Remember its not in SF's interest to wipe out the smaller parties. SF will not get 80 seats on their own, they absolutely need the support of other parties to form a coalition and for those other parties to increase their seats in the Dail.

efanton

Edgware wrote: »

An election now will throw up a completely different result. There's no guarantee that Sf will increase and Fg will pull back lost seats.

THeres' no guarantee of anything in an election.

But if SF field candidates in more constituencies, and possibly two in some, its extremely likely they will increase their vote, especially if there was a pre-agreed transfer policy between parties that would support a SF government. I mentioned this in my previous post.

I agree FG are likely to gain a few more seats if they dont feck it up during the election campaign and they stick to arguing policies rather than hurling insults as they did in the last election. They will get a small bounce from the covid crisis, but when the election campaign and debates turn to actual policies I dont think that bounce will be as great as some FG supporter think.

Topgear on Dave

efanton wrote: »

especially if there was a pre-agreed transfer policy between parties that would support a SF government.

Which parties will support a SF government?

If there are any they have been awful quiet lately?

efanton

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Which parties will support a SF government?

If there are any they have been awful quiet lately?

All the parties except FF and FG were approached immediately after the results were announced. The only party that flat out refused, were the Labour party, but they refused offers from FF and FG as well.
Does that mean all those parties would go into coalition with SF there's absolutely no way of telling, but I doubt any of them would refuse to enter talks just as the Greens have done with FF/FG.
Entering coalition talks is not a commitment to forming government as FG are about to find out.

Remember SF were short just 13 seats if those they approached had agreed, and they chose not to try approach and get support from independents.
So if SF and those parties gain 13 seats between them in a upcoming election then a government that does not include either FF or FG is certainly a possibility.

JohnnyFlash

efanton wrote: »

SF do own a lot of the offices used by their representatives. What of it?

All bought from declared and perfectly legal donations, unless you have evidence to the contrary.

Of course having constituency offices and support in all 32 counties of Ireland helps too.

How many constituency offices does FG have in the six counties being that the official FG title is Fine Gael - United Ireland Party.

I'm surprised FG don't own more of their own offices being that they have more support from property developers. Its certainly not due to lack of funds.
Why rent when you can buy, unless of course you might feel there might not be need of them in the future.

What really galls you is more likely that SF seem to be getting not only more public support in the polling booth but increasing financial support too.
That £1.5 million donation from Billy Hampton might even buy a few more offices.

This story hasn't gone away, dudes...


It's like a good old pot of stew. It gets tastier the longer you leave it. :pac:


:eek:

PommieBast

efanton wrote: »

SF had huge surpluses, and they went absolutely nowhere. In a few constituencies they might have run a second candidate but in the majority the surpluses simply would not have been big enough to warrant a second candidate.

Two such seats were Dublin SC and Dublin SW, where a 2nd SF candidates will have taken PBP's seats. Of the other three PBP seats Dun Laoghaire is the only one I would consider safe.

I would be extremely surprised if another election is called that there will not be a very comprehensive and clearly signalled transfer policy between SF and other parties that would be agreeable to a SF coalition.

I do wonder if such a thing existed at the last election because of the seats I looked at a lot of PBP transfers were indeed to SF as well as vice-versa. However I do note that PBP has sent open letters to SF regarding coalitions, but to my knowledge these have gone unanswered.

efanton

PommieBast wrote: »

Two such seats were Dublin SC and Dublin SW, where a 2nd SF candidates will have taken PBP's seats. Of the other three PBP seats Dun Laoghaire is the only one I would consider safe.


I do wonder if such a thing existed at the last election because of the seats I looked at a lot of PBP transfers were indeed to SF as well as vice-versa. However I do note that PBP has sent open letters to SF regarding coalitions, but to my knowledge these have gone unanswered.

AS far as I am aware there was no transfers agreement.
Have asked a SF member about this and he says he got nothing in the post, nor an email, suggesting how to use his transfers.

efanton

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/simon-harris-denies-fine-gael-is-trying-to-gauge-potential-outcome-of-second-election-1003287.html

simon harris denies fine gael is trying to gauge potential outcome of second election

Richard Hillman

It's quite remarkable that FG are dictating n the negotiations for government. FF and the Greens are going to FG with their demands and are been batted off.

FF are the party with most seats, in a normal world it would be them dictating but Martin is such a weak leader that even Leo Varadkar can alphamale him and Eamon Ryan. I know the polls suggest that going for another election would end Martin and give FG a big boost but FG were dictating everything before the polls went mental.