FG to just do nothing for the next 5 years.

Bowie wrote: »

Hey, I'm not buying your holier than thou party line. I think even FG ministers would snigger at your protests. Cronyism is there, always.
Even when he's given preferred bidder status I'd imagine. Even when we sell him the company so we can give him the contract, certainly
I'm no fan of Trump. You must be thinking of Varadkar who will do him a solid calling Clare Co. Co. for him and has his book.

What are you blathering on about now?
I sense you are frustrated with me, over my previous accusations.

All I've ever claimed is FG award Mr. O'Brien a lot of contracts and it's generally a bad deal for the tax payer. This is a matter of record. The only topic up for debate is why?

As I said before, FG do not award state contracts, the Civil Service does.
https://www.etenders.gov.ie/

Bowie wrote: »

I gave examples on the fact he does a lot of business with FG.

Efanton works for a company that won a state contract providing security software to county councils.
Therefore, Efranton is corrupt and a FG fanboy.

Am I doing this correctly?

efanton wrote: »

I mean put it this way, which parties have something to lose if another election happens. It's a very short list FF and FG.

That is a very odd interpretation of recent events and polls.

FG riding high on circa 35% for three polls running. Even if they do not get that vote, they look to certainly increase of their vote share from 21%.

FF looks like they could lose out.
The Greens also could lose out.

SD's and PBP/SOL would lose out at the hands of SF.

In other words, the winners of another election would be FG and SF by the looks of it. Many other parties would lose out.

Meanwhile FG are going to be left on their lonesome. Its unlikely the Green's of FF would go round two in coalition talks so who else will play with FG. If FG doubled their seats they would still be ten shy of being able to form a government, and to be honest who truly thinks that even achievable.

It might not be a bad option for FG. Let SF and FF at it, see how SF oversell and under deliver, remind people of FF cute-whorism and FG will be back in power with a nice big rump come the next election.

As I always, said, its win-win for FG really.

Very hard to tell. It all depends on whether the electorate will vote tactically or not. My suspicion is that they will, knowing that the outcome can only result in a FF/FG coalition of some kind, or a SF lead government.

That outcome can also lead to a FG majority government if they get 60+ seats

markodaly wrote: »

That is a very odd interpretation of recent

That outcome can also lead to a FG majority government if they get 60+ seats

I doubt that even you would believe that remotely possible.

If FG got 40 seats it would be a good day out for them. On an extremely lucky day 43 at the very most.

We will have to wait and see, will there be a second election? all the signals coming for FG are pointing to that.

If there is, the next big question is will FF ditch Micheal Martin in a hurry so that they could have a new leader in place, before canvassing and interviews start?
If they do who will replace him? And would he/she make clear from the start whether FF are open to a coalition of any kind, and with which parties.

After that its simply a numbers game. SF and FG will definitely gain seats, what is important is will the smaller parties gain seats too? The biggest losers will be the independents in my opinion. 19 seats in the Dail that for the most part are totally wasted. The electorate. will want to make sure a government can be formed.

I suspect that there will be a transfer agreement, to maximise the possibility of a SF led coalition, it certainly would make a lot of sense. I dont agree that the smaller parties will be eaten up by SF as with a transfer agreement in place they will benefit from the massive surpluses that SF will have from those candidates that are elected in the first couple of rounds. SF need the smaller parties to gain seats if they ever wish to form a government that does not include FG or FF.

When you consider that 29 of the 37 SF candidates were elected by round 2, well ahead of any of the smaller parties, suggesting that a transfer agreement could only favour SF is certainly not the case. In fact its patently the opposite.

PommieBast

markodaly wrote: »

No point low balling a product but then adding in lots of €€€ for support and maintenance after the fact.

That is more or less what took down Carillion.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

FF and SF would work if they had the support of independents.

It is FF choosing between FG and SF (anyone seriously expect FG-SF?) and then it is just making up the numbers.

Bishop of hope

PommieBast wrote: »

That is more or less what took down Carillion.

It is FF choosing between FG and SF (anyone seriously expect FG-SF?) and then it is just making up the numbers.

Same as FG FF now.
The greens could be dropped and numbers could still be made up to form a coalition.
I honestly think the Greens are the stumbling block here, though it will be played out by most as FG.
Rural dwellers won't be happy with what the Greens want re carbon emissions.

Edgware

Any left wing party that does a deal with SF will end up the same way that the P.D.s. Greens Labour did after dealing with FF and FG.
Dont feed the crocodile.

dundalkfc10

https://twitter.com/fionnansheahan/status/1268231698271084547?s=19

Simon cares about lives when it suits him

PommieBast wrote: »

If voting patterns remained the same SF running more candidates would at the very least decimate PBP, and probably cost Greens/SD a few TDs as well.

I think the Greens messed up. They caught the wave of discontentment but were eager to enter talks with FF/FG. I think that will damage them.
Hard to tell how SF will fare, jaded voters might drift back to FG but I don't think the FG Covid bump will last long enough.
PBP and SF might attract similar minded floating voters but they will both either gain or lose based on that not canceling out each other.
The SD's need to get some PR working and more candidates.
I think FF got the traditional bump from people being annoyed with FG, it's just not as automatic as it use to be.
Thanks to social media the smaller parties have a platform and the public can get information. I don't follow PBP on Facebook but RBB appears quite effectively in my feed pretty often speaking on clear points and issues. It would be a big mistake for FF/FG to continue to view every other party as the indistinguishable 'the left'.

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/fionnansheahan/status/1268231698271084547?s=19

Simon cares about lives when it suits him

Coveney is a good man on that topic.

StackSteevens

Richard Hillman wrote: »

It's quite remarkable that FG are dictating n the negotiations for government. FF and the Greens are going to FG with their demands and are been batted off.

Agreed.

Wouldn't it be great if the two other parties were to walk out of the talks in a huff and precipate the inevitable election, a few weeks before before the FG and Green Party members put an end to the whole charade?

FrancieBrady

StackSteevens wrote: »

Agreed.

Wouldn't it be great if the two other parties were to walk out of the talks in a huff and precipate the inevitable election, a few weeks before before the FG and Green Party members put an end to the whole charade?

Probably more apt to call them Avoidance of Blame For Another Election Talks rather than Government Formation Talks

dundalkfc10

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Probably more apt to call them Avoidance of Blame For Another Election Talks rather than Government Formation Talks

According to alot on here, The Govt was formed already.

satguy

FF do not have a strong leader at the moment,, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

The Greens also seem to think, that they have the wrong man in the driving seat, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

With that said,, FG are calling the shots, in fact, this is what Leo seems to be thinking.

"" A SECOND Irish election in less than six months could be on the cards, with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar increasingly confident after poll numbers for his Fine Gael party crept up, an expert has suggested.""

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1291260/leo-varadkar-ireland-general-election-coronavirus-covid19-fine-gael

I for one, hope they do pull the trigger on a second GE,, it would give us all a chance to see what a sucker punch looks like, when FG only get 25 seats.
It would also force FF to sit down and talk to SF, like they should have from the start.

Next GE
FF 50
SF 46
FG 25
GP 4
Lab 7
OTHERS ...

satguy wrote: »

FF do not have a strong leader at the moment,, in

Next GE
FF 50
SF 46
FG 25
GP 4
Lab 7
OTHERS ...

How in Gods name can you see FF getting 50 seats?

Forecasting FF would gain a few seats would be a brave move in my opinion, but to suggest they are going to jump so far ahead of FG and SF is extremely optimistic at best, delusional at worst. Even the SF forecast is likely to be a very good day out for SF, and I am a SF supporter.

Edgware

satguy wrote: »

FF do not have a strong leader at the moment,, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

The Greens also seem to think, that they have the wrong man in the driving seat, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

With that said,, FG are calling the shots, in fact, this is what Leo seems to be thinking.

"" A SECOND Irish election in less than six months could be on the cards, with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar increasingly confident after poll numbers for his Fine Gael party crept up, an expert has suggested.""

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1291260/leo-varadkar-ireland-general-election-coronavirus-covid19-fine-gael

I for one, hope they do pull the trigger on a second GE,, it would give us all a chance to see what a sucker punch looks like, when FG only get 25 seats.
It would also force FF to sit down and talk to SF, like they should have from the start.

Next GE
FF 50
SF 46
FG 25
GP 4
Lab 7
OTHERS ...

Would you have the numbers for Saturday nights lottery by any chance?

efanton wrote: »

IIf FG got 40 seats it would be a good day out for them. On an extremely lucky day 43 at the very most.

You are being way too pessimistic tbh about FG but as you have bet your entire repetition on FG being 'finished' I would say that your bias is clouding the actual reality of your points.

FG got 35 seats on 20.9% of the vote in 2020
FG got 50 seats on 25.5% of the vote in 2016
FG got 76 seats on 36.1% of the vote in 2011
FG got 51 seats on 27.3% of the vote in 2007

At the moment we have had three polls telling us that FG are on 35%.
So, either they will go back down to 21-22% of the vote if there is another GE or they will get more votes than that.

A good day for FG is 60-70 seats. Which is possible.

I suspect that there will be a transfer agreement, to maximise the possibility of a SF led coalition, it certainly would make a lot of sense.

I raised this very point prior to the GE. I even created a thread on it.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058044762

Its, of course, a good idea, but the history of the left in Ireland is split, infighting, basically doing the bollox.

I dont agree that the smaller parties will be eaten up by SF as with a transfer agreement in place they will benefit from the massive surpluses that SF will have from those candidates that are elected in the first couple of rounds. SF need the smaller parties to gain seats if they ever wish to form a government that does not include FG or FF.

That may be your opinion but that stats are clear here, the transfer from SF went to the left, especially to the likes of PBP/SOL and the SD's.
I had a post about that, where there is an easy loss of about 8 seats between them there to SF.
If SF run more candidates, they will eat up the vote from other left-wing parties, not from the likes of FF or FG. There is simply not enough left-wing vote out there to form a coalition, at this moment.

In fact its patently the opposite.

Then you don't understand the concept then of SF running more candidates in the next GE, which will eat up that transfer.

Yeah I was surprised FF did as well as they did. The only way I can see varadkar sticking around for more than a year is if a GE is called and FG come out on top. I think the current talks are a sham.

satguy wrote: »

Next GE
FF 50
SF 46
FG 25
GP 4
Lab 7
OTHERS ...

Others == 28 seats??

efanton wrote: »

How in Gods name can you see FF getting 50 seats?

Forecasting FF would gain a few seats would be a brave move in my opinion, but to suggest they are going to jump so far ahead of FG and SF is extremely optimistic at best, delusional at worst. Even the SF forecast is likely to be a very good day out for SF, and I am a SF supporter.

The numbers may be right, but swap FG for FF. That would be a better prediction.
Still though, hard for form a government on the left on that, so it looks like a FG and FF government anyway...

Mortelaro

satguy wrote: »

FF do not have a strong leader at the moment,, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

The Greens also seem to think, that they have the wrong man in the driving seat, in fact, there could even be a challenge to his leadership soon.

With that said,, FG are calling the shots, in fact, this is what Leo seems to be thinking.

"" A SECOND Irish election in less than six months could be on the cards, with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar increasingly confident after poll numbers for his Fine Gael party crept up, an expert has suggested.""

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1291260/leo-varadkar-ireland-general-election-coronavirus-covid19-fine-gael

I for one, hope they do pull the trigger on a second GE,, it would give us all a chance to see what a sucker punch looks like, when FG only get 25 seats.
It would also force FF to sit down and talk to SF, like they should have from the start.

Next GE
FF 50
SF 46
FG 25
GP 4
Lab 7
OTHERS ...

Ah, the Express Irish edition, a bastion of Brexitism, hater extraordinaire of Leo because its owners blame him for Europe and ironically a Tory owned publication
A super source

FrancieBrady

He can't help letting the mask slip can he? What a cold heartless point of view.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1268511708152201217

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He can't help letting the mask slip can he? What a cold heartless point of view.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1268511708152201217

Jesus he has no subtlety about him. All lash out when criticised. MLM was right. He spoke empty waffle and then when it was pointed out got nasty. Shamefully trying to cadge some shine off the #blacklivesmatter IMO.

blanch152

efanton wrote: »

I suspect that there will be a transfer agreement, to maximise the possibility of a SF led coalition, it certainly would make a lot of sense. I dont agree that the smaller parties will be eaten up by SF as with a transfer agreement in place they will benefit from the massive surpluses that SF will have from those candidates that are elected in the first couple of rounds. SF need the smaller parties to gain seats if they ever wish to form a government that does not include FG or FF.

When you consider that 29 of the 37 SF candidates were elected by round 2, well ahead of any of the smaller parties, suggesting that a transfer agreement could only favour SF is certainly not the case. In fact its patently the opposite.

I think you are being very optimistic to suggest that there will be a transfer agreement for a number of reasons:

(1) Sinn Fein have been unable to get any of the left-wing parties to sit down and discuss at any length a Programme for Government
(2) Or is it the likes of PBP who have been rebuffed by Sinn Fein?
(3) The left always splits and rarely transfers well. Labour called for one of these before when they were seen as left-wing and it didn't happen
(4) Finally, and most importantly, an awful lot of people, even people who vote left-wing cannot bring themselves to give a preference to Sinn Fein.

markodaly wrote: »

Y

FG got 35 seats on 20.9% of the vote in 2020
FG got 50 seats on 25.5% of the vote in 2016
FG got 76 seats on 36.1% of the vote in 2011
FG got 51 seats on 27.3% of the vote in 2007

At the moment we have had three polls telling us that FG are on 35%.
So, either they will go back down to 21-22% of the vote if there is another GE or they will get more votes than that.

A good day for FG is 60-70 seats. Which is possible

What you have not factored in on that assessment is some of those percentage points are being 'borrowed' from other parties and especially the Independents because of the coivd crisis. Many people are putting on the Team Ireland jersey when participating in those polls.
Study the recent polls and you will see that virtually all the Independent vote is going to FG in those polls.

With that in mind, the reality is that even on a good day in a general elections scenario, FG are at about 30% tops.

Also you have not considered that its no longer the big two taking the lions share of the votes, its now three parties so you estimates need to be significantly moderated to take account of that.

I would expect FG to gain seats, but a more realistic figure would be around the 38 to 41 seats in my opinion.

Even on a good day I expect SF to be in and around the 44 to 45 seat mark.

Of course much of this all depends on the FF vote. Will they drop Micheal Martin, and will they make their coalition option clear at the start of a campaign. If Martin stays then the FF vote will collapse and both SF and FG will gain a few more seats.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He can't help letting the mask slip can he? What a cold heartless point of view.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1268511708152201217

What mask is this now?

efanton wrote: »

What that in mind, the reality is that even on a good day in a general elections scenario, FG are at about 30% tops.

That will give them about 60 seats.

I would expect FG to gain seats, but a more realistic figure would be around the 38 to 41 seats in my opinion.

What analysis did you come up with to form that opinion?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

What mask is this now?

As somebody else said the one where he 'pretends he is Obama in kitschy socks when, in fact, behind the mask he is Thatcher in kitschy socks'