FG to just do nothing for the next 5 years.

efanton

blanch152 wrote: »

I think you are being very optimistic to suggest that there will be a transfer agreement for a number of reasons:

(1) Sinn Fein have been unable to get any of the left-wing parties to sit down and discuss at any length a Programme for Government
(2) Or is it the likes of PBP who have been rebuffed by Sinn Fein?
(3) The left always splits and rarely transfers well. Labour called for one of these before when they were seen as left-wing and it didn't happen
(4) Finally, and most importantly, an awful lot of people, even people who vote left-wing cannot bring themselves to give a preference to Sinn Fein.

Its easy really, I am sure even you are capable of simple arithmetic too.

Without Labour, SF needed an additional 13 seats even if the rest of the left leaning parties all agreed. SF choose not to involve any independents in a potential talks process for obvious reasons. What was the point of even starting talks if you are still going to require 13 independents?

Being that the potential numbers were not realistically there, SF did the intelligent thing and didn't bother wasting the country's time going through a talks process that was unlikely to form a government. Maybe that was something the Greens and FG should have considered before wasting yet another month being that neither seem to want to compromise, which surely is part and parcel of any coalition process.

PommieBast

Bowie wrote: »

I think the Greens messed up. They caught the wave of discontentment but were eager to enter talks with FF/FG. I think that will damage them.

I think the real damage will come from botching the negotiations rather than just the mere act of going into them. Half of the Greens' TDs never actually reached quota whereas the other half got in comfortably, so I do wonder whether this split coincides with what seems to be the two factions within the party.

Bowie wrote: »

The SD's need to get some PR working and more candidates.

Quite. So far I have been disappointed with them.

StackSteevens

efanton wrote: »

Its easy really, I am sure even you are capable of simple arithmetic too.

Without Labour, SF needed an additional 13 seats even if the rest of the left leaning parties all agreed. SF choose not to involve any independents in a potential talks process for obvious reasons. What was the point of even starting talks if you are still going to require 13 independents?

Being that the potential numbers were not realistically there, SF did the intelligent thing and didn't bother wasting the countries time going through a talks process that was unlikely to form a government. Maybe that was something the Greens and FG should have considered before wasting yet another month being that neither seem to want to compromise, which surely is part and parcel of any coalition process.

Couldn't agree more.

But the longer that the talks go on, the better things will be for both FG and SF in the coming second election, so what's the problem?

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As somebody else said the one where he 'pretends he is Obama in kitschy socks when, in fact, behind the mask he is Thatcher in kitschy socks'

Ah, so more pejoratives.

Please explain how that quote makes him Thatcher, and while doing so, explain Tatcher's own policy on immigration, as we would like you to educate us.

James Brown

PommieBast wrote: »

I think the real damage will come from botching the negotiations rather than just the mere act of going into them. Half of the Greens' TDs never actually reached quota whereas the other half got in comfortably, so I do wonder whether this split coincides with what seems to be the two factions within the party.


Quite. So far I have been disappointed with them.

My impression is the split in the Greens relates to faith in Ryan to negotiate. I think the public might have issue with them looking to go in with FF/FG. IMO, they get some floats when FF or FG are to be punished so they'll damage that much.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Ah, so more pejoratives.

Please explain how that quote makes him Thatcher, and while doing so, explain Tatcher's own policy on immigration, as we would like you to educate us.

Why would I when all you will do is come the Varadkar sycophant?

I could care less if you don't get the analogy.

satguy

We all watched SF at the last GE,, they had 12 good poll toppers, most were through at the first count, with a surplus.

I think at least 9 of those poll toppers could bring on a second candidate / running mate .. So 37 + 9 = 46 seats, very doable.

I really think FG will drop seats, and those seats to be picked up by FF and IND.
GP will drop seats, they will have nowhere near 14 ever again.

Bring it on ..

Podge_irl

satguy wrote: »

We all watched SF at the last GE,, they had 12 good poll toppers, most were through at the first count, with a surplus.

I think at least 9 of those poll toppers could bring on a second candidate / running mate .. So 37 + 9 = 46 seats, very doable.

I really think FG will drop seats, and those seats to be picked up by FF and IND.
GP will drop seats, they will have nowhere near 14 ever again.

Bring it on ..

What on earth makes you think FF will be picking up seats?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As somebody else said the one where he 'pretends he is Obama in kitschy socks when, in fact, behind the mask he is Thatcher in kitschy socks'

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/fashion/coronavirus-lockdown-golden-age-socks-stockings-a9454626.html

Looks like you are jealous once again that Leo is leading a trend while Mary-Lou......

blanch152

satguy wrote: »

We all watched SF at the last GE,, they had 12 good poll toppers, most were through at the first count, with a surplus.

I think at least 9 of those poll toppers could bring on a second candidate / running mate .. So 37 + 9 = 46 seats, very doable.

I really think FG will drop seats, and those seats to be picked up by FF and IND.
GP will drop seats, they will have nowhere near 14 ever again.

Bring it on ..

You are assuming that those good poll toppers will do the same again.

You are also assuming that having discovered what they are really like, that the electorate will be happy to re-elect Violet and Reada among others.

Big, big assumptions.

The reality is that Sinn Fein will lose seats and gain seats. Where they end up in net terms is a guess, but I would guess they will lose 2-3 seats.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

You are assuming that those good poll toppers will do the same again.

You are also assuming that having discovered what they are really like, that the electorate will be happy to re-elect Violet and Reada among others.

Big, big assumptions.

The reality is that Sinn Fein will lose seats and gain seats. Where they end up in net terms is a guess, but I would guess they will lose 2-3 seats.

Poster making assumptions accuses other poster of making bigger assumptions.

efanton

blanch152 wrote: »

You are assuming that those good poll toppers will do the same again.

You are also assuming that having discovered what they are really like, that the electorate will be happy to re-elect Violet and Reada among others.

Big, big assumptions.

The reality is that Sinn Fein will lose seats and gain seats. Where they end up in net terms is a guess, but I would guess they will lose 2-3 seats.

Very hard to see how your logic stands up

Of 37 SF candidates elected 29 were elected by the second count with very hefty surpluses.
Only 7 SF candidates were elected after count 5, so how does your net gain of 2 or 3 work out out?

Curious how you selected SF's worst performer Violet-Anne Wynne who only scraped in on the 10th count but even she all the way up until the 7 count was ahead of every FF and FG candidate and always well ahead of the Greens. As an alleged Green party supporter I am sure you were delighted to see that it was the green transfers that pushed her across the line when the Green candidate was eliminated.

Your bias and hate of SF blinds you to the the truth.
SF might lose a seat or two at most, but they will probably gain an extra 5 to 7 seats after fielding more candidates. I would peg SF at about 42-43 seats after a new election
The reality is the Green vote will plummet because they made such a hash of the coalition negotiations. Most of that lost vote will be going to SF.

FrancieBrady

As so often happens when Leo lets the mask slip - this time on Direct Provision - he provokes very damaging remarks about his tenure. After today's slip this was posted and it is hard to disagree. It must be toe curling for a FG member every time he opens his mouth without the aid of a speech writer.

From the very beginning, Leo Varadkar’s only metric for whether something is okay or not is just how it statistically compares to other countries: homelessness, healthcare, systemic racism. He shows no signs whatsoever of a moral compass.

christy c

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As so often happens when Leo lets the mask slip - this time on Direct Provision - he provokes very damaging remarks about his tenure. After today's slip this was posted and it is hard to disagree. It must be toe curling for a FG member every time he opens his mouth without the aid of a speech writer.

I cant speak for what FG members think, but I have asked before if he puts his foot in it more than other politicians who are in the media a lot? And I dont think he does.

Look at Harris with his 18 covids, Coveney congratulating the scrounger Erica Fleming, Mary Lou letting demographics look after themselves, Pearse with the your pension at 65 rubbish, etc.

RandomViewer

Podge_irl wrote: »

What on earth makes you think FF will be picking up seats?

Whoever pulls the rug from Martin will get the popular FF vote, grassroots would rather go into coalition with the Monster raving loony party than FG, the poll drop is because of the talks

RandomViewer

blanch152 wrote: »

You are assuming that those good poll toppers will do the same again.

You are also assuming that having discovered what they are really like, that the electorate will be happy to re-elect Violet and Reada among others.

Big, big assumptions.

The reality is that Sinn Fein will lose seats and gain seats. Where they end up in net terms is a guess, but I would guess they will lose 2-3 seats.

Lowry and Naughten were re-elected, Verona?.. SF voters will be no more fickle

FrancieBrady

christy c wrote: »

I cant speak for what FG members think, but I have asked before if he puts his foot in it more than other politicians who are in the media a lot? And I dont think he does.

Look at Harris with his 18 covids, Coveney congratulating the scrounger Erica Fleming, Mary Lou letting demographics look after themselves, Pearse with the your pension at 65 rubbish, etc.

'I can't speak for what FG members think...but I'll tell you to look over there.' :rolleyes:

efanton

RandomViewer wrote: »

Whoever pulls the rug from Martin will get the popular FF vote, grassroots would rather go into coalition with the Monster raving loony party than FG, the poll drop is because of the talks

I agree, but there is another factor that I think will have a significant impact on the FF vote. Their vote will differ significantly if they announce their coalition position early on in the election. I think announcing they will consider coalition with all parties rather than eliminating SF from the menu will give them a bit of a boost.
If they dont then people will assume they are looking at a FF/FG coalition once again and less likely to support them.
If they refuse to say anything then that's probably going to affect their transfers.

christy c

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'I can't speak for what FG members think...but I'll tell you to look over there.' :rolleyes:

I didnt tell you to look anywhere, thought my point was clear but maybe not.

FrancieBrady

christy c wrote: »

I didnt tell you to look anywhere, thought my point was clear but maybe not.

Rather than address what was said about Leo you specifically said:

Look at ...

efanton

christy c wrote: »

I cant speak for what FG members think, but I have asked before if he puts his foot in it more than other politicians who are in the media a lot? And I dont think he does.

Look at Harris with his 18 covids, Coveney congratulating the scrounger Erica Fleming, Mary Lou letting demographics look after themselves, Pearse with the your pension at 65 rubbish, etc.

I would tend to agree Leo is more adept at not tripping land mines.

But is that a good thing when his typical response to a difficult or awkward question is normally to waffle without saying anything, or worse to actually try to deflect the problem or issue to another party? Most people are not blind nor deaf, they realise what is happening.

Every politician is going to try position themselves in the best light, not be the one that delivers bad news, or not be the complete tool that makes a truly stupid gaff, but to constantly avoid giving a direct answer to a direct question when that question or answer might be awkward does give the impression that Leo is very ingenuous, not to be trusted or simply cold. There are politician in all parties that although they will make the occasional gaff are seen to be genuine and Leo lacks that.

christy c

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Rather than address what was said about Leo you specifically said:

I addressed the point that Leo was a liability or whatever way you phrased it by saying all politicians in the limelight put their foot in it. If he's no worse than his opponents I woildnt see it as an issue.

StackSteevens

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'I can't speak for what FG members think...but I'll tell you to look over there.' :rolleyes:

That's definitely not the kind of unsophisticated whataboutery that a polished spinner like you would stoop to, Francie!

FrancieBrady

StackSteevens wrote: »

That's definitely not the kind of unsophisticated whataboutery that a polished spinner like you would stoop to, Francie!

Well I wouldn't say 'Look over there...' and then deny I said it two posts later.

efanton

I see FF/FG are now looking at scraping the barrel to keep the coalition dream afloat. Its looking likely that any hope of the Greens becoming part of the coalition have dropped dramatically.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/regional-tds-offered-group-or-individual-deals-to-back-coalition-1.4270959

It looks like FF/fG are now looking toward the Regional Independent Group to prop up their coalition.

My personal opinion is this move is more likely to be driven by Michael Martin than Leo or FG, but this would give the coalition government just 80 seats. There will be no room whatsoever for an unexpected revolt from an independent TD, an independent essentially black mailing the government or making additional demands for their support once a government is formed, or the unfortunate death of a government TD.
A very risky manoeuvre in my opinion but that's my reasoning that its is probably driven by Mehole than Leo.
It will be very hard for FG to be taking the higher moral ground when they are willing to have Micheal Lowry on board and in government.

James Brown

People would make fun but forgive the odd accident of word play. With the Covid Harris thing he had a whole tissue of waffle he either made up on the spot or genuinely assumed was real. Then we'd Varadkar and how dismissive he gets, 'It's worse elsewhere', saying direct provision 'isn't the same as killing a man' like that was the debate. And Belfast being overseas, considering the history and politics involved. Also more importantly these are key government ministers, decision and policy makers.

efanton

efanton wrote: »

I see FF/FG are now looking at scraping the barrel to keep the coalition dream afloat. Its looking likely that any hope of the Greens becoming part of the coalition have dropped dramatically.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/regional-tds-offered-group-or-individual-deals-to-back-coalition-1.4270959

It looks like FF/fG are now looking toward the Regional Independent Group to prop up their coalition.

My personal opinion is this move is more likely to be driven by Michael Martin than Leo or FG, but this would give the coalition government just 80 seats. There will be no room whatsoever for an unexpected revolt from an independent TD, an independent essentially black mailing the government or making additional demands for their support once a government is formed, or the unfortunate death of a government TD.
A very risky manoeuvre in my opinion but that's my reasoning that its is probably driven by Mehole than Leo.
It will be very hard for FG to be taking the higher moral ground when they are willing to have Micheal Lowry on board and in government.

You mean that they are doing their damndest to form a government.

efanton

Deleted User wrote: »

You mean that they are doing their damndest to form a government.

So it would be acceptable to you to see Micheal Lowry, a convicted crook, in government?

How long do you think this government will last with just 80 seats, with every independent in it looking for their own little sweetener, and bailing when measures are introduced to claw back money to pay for the covid crisis?
If just one bails that government is over.

If FF/FG thought the this independent group were suitable partners in government why were they not approached months ago?

The only reason this is happening is FG and FF are clinging to power, but to be fair this is more likely to be driven by Michael Martin who will do anything to become Taoiseach and save his political career.

If FF/FG want to deliver a stable government then surely the way to do that is to forego the pretence and delay, and push for a new election so that there can be a clear mandate for government.

McMurphy

Deleted User wrote: »

You mean that they are doing their damndest to form a government.

Did their damnest to cling on to power for a few extra weeks you mean.

Bishop of hope

efanton wrote: »

I see FF/FG are now looking at scraping the barrel to keep the coalition dream afloat. Its looking likely that any hope of the Greens becoming part of the coalition have dropped dramatically.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/regional-tds-offered-group-or-individual-deals-to-back-coalition-1.4270959

It looks like FF/fG are now looking toward the Regional Independent Group to prop up their coalition.

My personal opinion is this move is more likely to be driven by Michael Martin than Leo or FG, but this would give the coalition government just 80 seats. There will be no room whatsoever for an unexpected revolt from an independent TD, an independent essentially black mailing the government or making additional demands for their support once a government is formed, or the unfortunate death of a government TD.
A very risky manoeuvre in my opinion but that's my reasoning that its is probably driven by Mehole than Leo.
It will be very hard for FG to be taking the higher moral ground when they are willing to have Micheal Lowry on board and in government.

Interesting how you got that summation from that article given that the group met with the three party leaders.
Reading between the lines between the lines maybe?