Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

WomanSkirtFan8 · 17-10-2019 07:36PM

derrymcorry wrote: »

There will be a border poll VERY soon.

I think so as well. We're getting there, slowly but surely, but we're getting there. It's going to happen at some point. :cool:

irishfeen · 17-10-2019 07:36PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

What is the cross community majority criteria? How is it measured/tested does anyone know?

"6. For the purposes of paragraph 5, cross-community support means:

(a) a majority of those Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting,
including a majority of the unionist and nationalist designations present and voting;
or

(b) a weighted majority (60%) of Members of the Legislative Assembly present and
voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations
present and voting"

Professor Moriarty · 17-10-2019 07:37PM

jm08 wrote: »

This is Manufacturing Northern Ireland's take on it. They seem to be very positive about it.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/rival-unionists-accuse-dup-of-catastrophic-brexit-miscalculation

That's a very good explanation of the voting 'backstop'. Very reassuring too.

circadian · 17-10-2019 07:38PM

joseywhales wrote: »

Barnier!

You son of a bitch.

What's wrong, they got you pushin' pencils in Brussels?

Sorry I couldn't resist.

circadian · 17-10-2019 07:39PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Are the UUP much different to the DUP when it comes to the Irish sea border?

They're looking for a new leader at the minute. Leading candidate said this morning best thing would be to not have Brexit at all.

Professor Moriarty · 17-10-2019 07:44PM

fash wrote: »

So long as there is a reasonable risk of a reversion to hard border, the economic situation in NI will be awful. I don't foresee the current situation - coupled with votes every 4 years for evermore as a sustainable solution

I don't see Britain leaving with anything other than a soft Brexit in the long term. Anyway, I don't think there is a reasonable risk of NI voting for a hard border now or in the future and I think business will see it that way. Expect investment up North from all concerned to lock that vote in place. However badly NI might do in the next decade, they would then do an awful lot worse if they erected a hard border. And most young people up there care less and less about being unionist.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-10-2019 07:44PM

The ERG seem to be out in support of the deal this evening.

Dyr · 17-10-2019 07:44PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Okay pal. Under what circumstances do you think that Stormont will impose a hard border? No problem if you can't think of any.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A. From newspaper reports, it would seem so.
B. It's a pragmatic shift in position.

I'll take it that you're saying yes to both but would rather not admit to it.

You're asking under what circumstances would the NI assembly take such a course, well answer this honestly a year before these events occurred did anyone think them remotely possible:

Donald Trump becoming president
Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader in the UK
the UK voting to leave the EU
The British Labour party being as bitterly split as the Tories on Europe
Nazis winning seats in Germany
A no deal Brexit becoming highly possible
Boris Johnson becoming British PM
A UK PM being found to have misled the Queen
The UK government being dragged to the high court and found to have illegally pro-rouged parliament
The British Courts finding that sections of the Good Friday agreement does not apply because.
A Taoiseach agreeing to give Stormont the ability to impose a hard border on this Island

"It will never happen" is wishful thinking in an era where everything is in flux. If you don't want it to happen then don't create a mechanism by which it can actually happen

Dyr · 17-10-2019 07:46PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So you want a solution imposed on people in the north that they have no say in whatsoever?

That was never going to happen nor should any such thing happen.

How would we like something like that imposed on us with no say?

The reality is when the dust settles it is going to be impossible for them to leave the arrangements anyway for practical purposes.

Why would they vote for a hard border and economic mayhem for themselves?

Guess what? It is being imposed on us with no say so

Kermit.de.frog · 17-10-2019 07:46PM

Bambi wrote: »

Guess what? It is being imposed on us with no say so

How?

Professor Moriarty · 17-10-2019 07:48PM

Bambi wrote: »

I'll take it that you're saying yes to both but would rather not admit to it.

You're asking under what circumstances would the NI assembly take such a course, well answer this honestly a year before these events occurred did anyone think them remotely possible:

Donald Trump becoming president
Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader in the UK
the UK voting to leave the EU
The British Labour party being as bitterly split as the Tories on Europe
Nazis winning seats in Germany
A no deal Brexit becoming highly possible
Boris Johnson becoming British PM
A UK PM being found to have misled the Queen
The UK government being dragged to the high court and found to have illegally pro-rouged parliament
The British Courts finding that sections of the Good Friday agreement does not apply because.
A Taoiseach agreeing to give Stormont the ability to impose a hard border on this Island

"It will never happen" is wishful thinking in an era where everything is in flux. If you don't want it to happen then don't create a mechanism by which it can actually happen

But none of those points answer this question (which I've asked you at least three times):

Under what circumstances do you think NI will vote to impose a hard border?

joe40 · 17-10-2019 07:49PM

circadian wrote: »

They're looking for a new leader at the minute. Leading candidate said this morning best thing would be to not have Brexit at all.

I always get the feeling the strong DUP support was in response to the strong Sinn from support. Nationalist who wouldn't necessarily consider themselves staunch Republicans would vote Sinn rather than divide the vote by voting alliance or SDLP, and allow DUP in. The same happening on the other side.
Things can change though, I would hope moderate unionists or even unionists with an ounce of wit will have concluded that the DUP are basically self serving gangsters with no interest in the welfare of NI residents.

irishfeen · 17-10-2019 07:49PM

The Financial Times think Johnson needs just 2 MP's to come over to his side in order for this to pass - DUP withdrawing support may not even matter.

FrancieBrady · 17-10-2019 07:51PM

Bambi wrote: »

I'll take it that you're saying yes to both but would rather not admit to it.

You're asking under what circumstances would the NI assembly take such a course, well answer this honestly a year before these events occurred did anyone think them remotely possible:

Donald Trump becoming president
Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader in the UK
the UK voting to leave the EU
The British Labour party being as bitterly split as the Tories on Europe
Nazis winning seats in Germany
A no deal Brexit becoming highly possible
Boris Johnson becoming British PM
A UK PM being found to have misled the Queen
The UK government being dragged to the high court and found to have illegally pro-rouged parliament
The British Courts finding that sections of the Good Friday agreement does not apply because.
A Taoiseach agreeing to give Stormont the ability to impose a hard border on this Island

"It will never happen" is wishful thinking in an era where everything is in flux. If you don't want it to happen then don't create a mechanism by which it can actually happen

The British could and quite feasibly (if it suited them) and easily ignored the backstop at any point they wished.

This way, the responsibility for a hard border lies with those who directly have to vote for it.

It's a brilliant result from an Irish perspective in my opinion. Imagine somebody out lobbying for that? And you can be sure in any election that matters they will be asked what they will do.

CelticRambler · 17-10-2019 07:52PM

devnull wrote: »

(b) a weighted majority (60%) of Members of the Legislative Assembly present and
voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations
present and voting"

That 40% threshold could become problematic in the future. If 60% of the Assembly is made up of non-aligned Members, and the remaining 40% is split equally between traditional nationalist and unionists, chances are one or other of those will be really hard core, possibly even elected on a platform of opposition to the status quo. In that situation, somewhat paradoxically, the less sectarian the Assembly becomes, the greater the effective veto of the hardliners.

Strazdas · 17-10-2019 07:52PM

irishfeen wrote: »

The Financial Times think Johnson needs just 2 MP's to come over to his side in order for this to pass - DUP withdrawing support may not even matter.

Such a split vote would only lead to further rancour and division. Imagine the UK leaving the EU with this deal with a majority of one or two MPs in Parliament.

Professor Moriarty · 17-10-2019 07:53PM

joe40 wrote: »

I always get the feeling the strong DUP support was in response to the strong Sinn from support. Nationalist who wouldn't necessarily consider themselves staunch Republicans would vote Sinn rather than divide the vote by voting alliance or SDLP, and allow DUP in. The same happening on the other side.
Things can change though, I would hope moderate unionists or even unionists with an ounce of wit will have concluded that the DUP are basically self serving gangsters with no interest in the welfare of NI residents.

They are concluding that. Polling shows that they have lost nearly 20% of their vote since the 2017 election.

Dyr · 17-10-2019 07:55PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But none of those points answer this question (which I've asked you at least three times):

Under what circumstances do you think NI will vote to impose a hard border?

You've asked three times and I've asked you to follow your own logic, you've been dragged to admitting that I was right on two counts but won't take the final step, that you can't reliably state that a NI vote to establish a hard border in four years is unforeseeable. Whereas, two days ago it was impossible.

So before I answer, did any of those events seem likely to you a year before they occurred. Just bear in mind that your credibility rests on you answering in the negative to that

PokeHerKing · 17-10-2019 07:57PM

Bambi wrote: »

"It will never happen" is wishful thinking in an era where everything is in flux. If you don't want it to happen then don't create a mechanism by which it can actually happen

That "mechanism" is democracy though?

MrMusician18 · 17-10-2019 07:58PM

Will the DUP vote against it? They might abstain if that not certain of their numbers.

lawred2 · 17-10-2019 07:58PM

Are those labour rebels still members of the parliamentary party?

Professor Moriarty · 17-10-2019 07:59PM

Bambi wrote: »

You've asked three times and I've asked you to follow your own logic, you've been dragged to admitting that I was right on two counts but won't take the final step, that you can't reliably state that a NI vote to establish a hard border in four years is unforeseeable. Whereas, two days ago it was impossible.

So before I answer, did any of those events seem likely to you a year before they occurred. Just bear in mind that your credibility rests on you answering in the negative to that

Damn. Got me with one of your scenarios. I didn't predict "Nazis winning seats in Germany" in 1932. There goes my credibility.

Dyr · 17-10-2019 08:01PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The British could and quite feasibly (if it suited them) and easily ignored the backstop at any point they wished.
.

If they could have they would have and yet they refused to even risk it, when doing so would have solved many of their problems Because the consequences of ignoring an agreed backstop would never suit them

With all due respect Francie you were posting a few minutes ago that there is no published text as yet minutes, ago when it was published earlier today, so you haven't even read the thing

gooch2k9 · 17-10-2019 08:01PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Will the DUP vote against it? They might abstain if that not certain of their numbers.

They have said they'll vote against it, not abstain.

joe40 · 17-10-2019 08:01PM

Bambi wrote: »

Guess what? It is being imposed on us with no say so

Not really, the decision is been given to the people of northern Ireland through their representatives in storming.
If majority do want to leave the process resulting in hard border it will be their informed choice.
In the same way if a majority want a United Ireland it will be their choice.

Imreoir2 · 17-10-2019 08:02PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184870424582209537

Varadkar has sacrificed the backstop in the hope that Stormont's ghost parliament puts pragmatism before patriotism. In the event that Stormont is not operational, we're relying on the UK government to convene a sitting of MLAs to push through a deal based on a simple majority.

He essentially conceded to a time limited backstop (4 years) with the difference being rather than relying on a dysfunctional Westminster at the end of the period, we're relying on a dysfunctional Stormont.

What does it matter if Stormount is functional or dysfunctional? The important point is if a majority of MLAs want a hard border or not, currently a majority do not want a hard border. If the good people of NI choose to elect a majority of MLAs who support a hard border, then on their own heads be it.

jimmycrackcorm · 17-10-2019 08:02PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Will the DUP vote against it? They might abstain if that not certain of their numbers.

They have to vote against it as protecting our precious union is their core being. Nothing to do with voting to protect their constituents.

Dyr · 17-10-2019 08:03PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Damn. Got me with one of your scenarios. I didn't predict "Nazis winning seats in Germany" in 1932. There goes my credibility.

They won seats in 2017. Unless you're going to defend AfD from accusations of being Nazis.

That said, levity might be your best recourse now. Sticky enough wicket you're on there

Jamiekelly · 17-10-2019 08:07PM

Bambi wrote: »

They won seats in 2017. Unless you're going to defend AfD from accusations of being Nazis.

That said, levity might be your best recourse now. Sticky enough wicket you're on there

To be fair Bambi in one post you claimed that this is being imposed on us without us having a say while a few posts earlier you complained that there is even a vote on it continuing to be imposed. You're building strawmen all over this thread the last hour or so. Sticky wickets and all that...

Water John · 17-10-2019 08:08PM

If the vote is won by one vote, it is respected by Parliament. It would be, move on time, for all parties in the HOC. I wouldn't see it being an issue.
The will of Parliament is sovereign.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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