Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

1…214215217219220…311

Comments

  • #6482
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Bambi wrote: »
    I note with interest that you cant refute the post you quoted


    If the MLAs in the North vote to end the dual custom arrangement what is the default outcome? A hard border.

    Again, under what circumstances will that happen?


  • #6483
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Bambi wrote: »
    I note with interest that you cant refute the post you quoted


    If the MLAs in the North vote to end the dual custom arrangement what is the default outcome? A hard border.

    But you're the one making the claim, it's up to you to back it up, not for others to disprove you until you provide evidence.

    The details as to what happens is in the text, or even Connelly's twitter.


  • #6484
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    irishfeen wrote: »
    People have to remember the DUP's hard line is not shared by the UUP, they wanted to remain in the EU remember. This is very very bad for the DUP and Unionism in NI - they pushed too hard and should have approved May's deal.

    We will have an economic United Ireland now in all but name.

    Funnily enough, latest polling shows that Unionist parties are losing support. As are Nationalist parties but to a lesser extent. Big winners are Alliance - who are pro-Europe.


  • #6485
    derrymcorry
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 61 ✭✭derrymcorry


    There will be a border poll VERY soon.


  • #6486
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,925 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Caller mis-informed.

    Read the text.

    Can somebody link the text here please?


  • Advertisement
  • #6487
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,697 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Bambi wrote: »
    I note with interest that you cant refute the post you quoted


    If the MLAs in the North vote to end the dual custom arrangement what is the default outcome? A hard border.

    The default outcome had we refused to relax the backstop (when the UK did, as asked, present an alternative) was a hard border too.

    Politics is the art of compromise. We compromised but got different dividends as a result.

    Not perfect, but then Brexit never was going to end up perfect.


  • #6488
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,697 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Funnily enough, latest polling shows that Unionist parties are losing support. As are Nationalist parties but to a lesser extent. Big winners are Alliance - who are pro-Europe.

    And who don't like this deal...they think the May one was better.


  • #6489
    20silkcut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,734 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Frosty Perception wrote: »
    he just said he is deflated and it's "a bleak day for LEAVERS"

    It’s as hard a brexit as possible what is his problem ??


  • #6490
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    And who don't like this deal...they think the May one was better.

    Why?


  • #6491
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,697 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    Can somebody link the text here please?
    There is no published text yet...just reports on it. Tony COnnelly explains it here.

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184870410741014528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1184870410741014528&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D2058016732%26page%3D162&fbclid=IwAR2lv_Ei34vEyZzunQ2b2laPgcJoWalcT6Lamj2JYbUV4Yi_FRMxmjAY8JY


  • Advertisement
  • #6492
    jimmycrackcorm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,417 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    golfball37 wrote: »
    The Benn act is redundant now with JCJ saying there will be no extension. Its either Boris deal or no deal now. Labour will look ridiculous voting against this if no deal is the consequence. Cummins and Boris have played this thing beautifully from a political strategy POV.

    Junker can't say it but the only possible reason to grant an extension is for a referendum to accept deal / no deal and includes remain as an option.

    A GE is pointless as a reason in that it's going back to the same.


  • #6493
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,697 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Why?

    Naomi Long was on BBC News there, only got her first sentence or two and had to run one of the children to training, but she was saying it was a bad deal for NI...I think from an investment/business angle. She'd probably be right.


  • #6494
    irishfeen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,069 ✭✭✭irishfeen


    You would wonder is the only option for the DUP now to support another referendum vote alongside Labour, SNP and the Lib Dems... they would look completely ridiculous but for them it might be the best way out of this mess.

    This deal is probably worse than no deal for them long term.


  • #6495
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Naomi Long was on BBC News there, only got her first sentence or two and had to run one of the children to training, but she was saying it was a bad deal for NI...I think from an investment/business angle. She'd probably be right.

    Possibly given the uncertainty. But my point is that the unionist vote is on a downward trajectory recently; DUP -7% and UUP -6%. Most of these votes have gone to Alliance which is a Remain party. This trend reinforces the view that a hard border won't be voted in for the foreseeable future. As it stands, Stormont would not vote for a hard border today. If we get to the point where NI does vote for a hard border, the world will be a very different and dangerous place anyway.


  • #6496
    Dyr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Again, under what circumstances will that happen?

    No, my friend you don't get to start a sentence with "again" and then rephrase your question

    You asked under what circumstances would Stormont be able to impose a hard border. I've answered. You can refute if you like or you can accept that Stormont could impose a hard border if decides to. Do you accept that?

    Are you now asking under what circumstances would MLAs take that course of action? Then you've gone from querying the possibility to abstraction about the circumstances in which that course of events might unfold?

    It's back to the argument I mentioned pages back that the risk is minimal because "Shur that will never happen". In an era where things that would never happen are now commonplace that is absolute folly


  • #6497
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Bambi wrote: »
    No, my friend you don't get to start a sentence with "again" and then rephrase your question

    You asked under what circumstances would Stormont be able to impose a hard border. I've answered. You can refute if you like or you can accept that Stormont could impose a hard border if decides to. Do you accept that?

    Are you now asking under what circumstances would MLAs take that course of action? Then you've gone from querying the possibility to abstraction about the circumstances in which that course of events might unfold?

    It's back to the argument I mentioned pages back that the risk is minimal because "Shur that will never happen". In an era where things that would never happen are now commonplace that is absolute folly

    Okay pal. Under what circumstances do you think that Stormont will impose a hard border? No problem if you can't think of any.


  • #6498
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Frosty Perception wrote: »
    Andrew Bridgen says he'll suck it up!

    Either the ERG think they have a plan up their sleeve or they think that Brexit will slip out of their grasp if they don't grab this opportunity.


  • #6499
    maebee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,757 ✭✭✭maebee


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    So rugby World Cup games Saturday morning along with the brexit vote ? Amazing day of sport on Saturday and one for the ages.

    We're heading off on a Med cruise on Saturday. Managed to find an Irish pub in Barcelona that's showing the match, so that's sorted. Won't have wifi on the ship so I'll have to take to the cabin for the day to watch Sky News :)

    There isn't a hope in hell of this passing the HOC on Saturday. Can't see where he'll get the numbers. Then again, you never know what's going to happen with this s***show. Things change by the hour.


  • #6500
    Dyr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Okay pal. Under what circumstances do you think that Stormont will impose a hard border? No problem if you can't think of any.

    Before we move on to that do you accept that

    A) the Stormont assembly can impose a hard border if it desires?
    B) This is a breach of the Irish Governments red line that no hard border could result from any agreement?


  • #6501
    fash
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭fash


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Okay pal. Under what circumstances do you think that Stormont will impose a hard border? No problem if you can't think of any.
    Where there is increased polarization in society and (caused by) economic stagnation caused by political uncertainty, leading to only 1 of 2 possible outcomes to resolve the situation: hard border or United Ireland.


  • Advertisement
  • #6502
    declanflynn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,160 ✭✭✭declanflynn


    Bambi wrote: »
    Before we move on to that do you accept that

    A) the Stormont assembly can impose a hard border if it desires?
    B) This is a breach of the Irish Governments red line that no hard border could result from any agreement?
    Leo and Ireland 10
    Boris and dup 0
    A great win for us


  • #6503
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Bambi wrote: »
    Before we move on to that do you accept that

    A) the Stormont assembly can impose a hard border if it desires?
    B) This is a breach of the Irish Governments red line that no hard border could result from any agreement?

    A. From newspaper reports, it would seem so.
    B. It's a pragmatic shift in position.


  • #6504
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,534 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Frosty Perception wrote: »
    he just said he is deflated and it's "a bleak day for LEAVERS"
    It's a bleak day for him because Johnson has just stolen all his clothes. Assuming he gets it through the HoC of course.


  • #6505
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,222 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Bambi wrote: »
    Before we move on to that do you accept that

    A) the Stormont assembly can impose a hard border if it desires?
    B) This is a breach of the Irish Governments red line that no hard border could result from any agreement?

    So you want a solution imposed on people in the north that they have no say in whatsoever?

    That was never going to happen nor should any such thing happen.

    How would we like something like that imposed on us with no say?

    The reality is when the dust settles it is going to be impossible for them to leave the arrangements anyway for practical purposes.

    Why would they vote for a hard border and economic mayhem for themselves?


  • #6506
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,697 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Possibly given the uncertainty. But my point is that the unionist vote is on a downward trajectory recently; DUP -7% and UUP -6%. Most of these votes have gone to Alliance which is a Remain party. This trend reinforces the view that a hard border won't be voted in for the foreseeable future. As it stands, Stormont would not vote for a hard border today. If we get to the point where NI does vote for a hard border, the world will be a very different and dangerous place anyway.

    No argument. I think t is as good if not better than a backstop...put your head above the parapet and cause a hard border and YOU and you alone take the consequences.
    Not even the DUP are brave enough for that.


  • #6507
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    fash wrote: »
    Where there is increased polarization in society and (caused by) economic stagnation caused by political uncertainty, leading to only 1 of 2 possible outcomes to resolve the situation: hard border or United Ireland.

    Or the status quo remains. I don't believe it will be as binary as you predict. Staunch Nationalism/Republicanism/Loyalism/Unionism is washing out slowly but surely.


  • #6508
    jm08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,338 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    Bambi wrote: »
    Before we move on to that do you accept that

    A) the Stormont assembly can impose a hard border if it desires?
    B) This is a breach of the Irish Governments red line that no hard border could result from any agreement?


    This is Manufacturing Northern Ireland's take on it. They seem to be very positive about it.


    Many farmers and business owners, in contrast, welcomed a deal that would keep trade flowing and avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. “What is good is that a deal is struck, we can move on to the more positive conversation about the future relationship and, regardless, Northern Ireland can continue to have tariff-free, quota-free access to both the UK and the EU’s single market,” said the Manufacturing Northern Ireland chief executive, Stephen Kelly.



    They are relieved they have certainty as the new arrangements will mean the same trading environment for four years beyond the transition period. Stormont then gets to vote, and if the new regime is popular and can command 60% support – with at least 40% each of the nationalist and unionist votes – it will be rolled over for another eight years, a protracted EU alignment that is anathema to the DUP.



    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/rival-unionists-accuse-dup-of-catastrophic-brexit-miscalculation


  • #6509
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,534 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    So you want a solution imposed on people in the north that they have no say in whatsoever?

    That was never going to happen nor should any such thing happen.

    How would we like something like that imposed on us with no say?

    The reality is when the dust settles it is going to be impossible for them to leave the arrangements anyway for practical purposes.

    Why would they vote for a hard border and economic mayhem for themselves?
    This was actually becoming part of the narrative north of the border in recent weeks/months and was starting to become counter-productive. A lot of people saying Varadkar had no right to be making decisions for NI. And it's fair enough. Unfortunately there was nobody else speaking for the border counties and those who would be most affected.


  • #6510
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,925 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    What is the cross community majority criteria? How is it measured/tested does anyone know?


  • Advertisement
  • #6511
    fash
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭fash


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Or the status quo remains. I don't believe it will be as binary as you predict. Staunch Nationalism/Republicanism/Loyalism/Unionism is washing out slowly but surely.
    So long as there is a reasonable risk of a reversion to hard border, the economic situation in NI will be awful. I don't foresee the current situation - coupled with votes every 4 years for evermore as a sustainable solution


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement