Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog · 16-10-2019 08:13AM

No insults please.

Joe_ Public · 16-10-2019 08:20AM

I once asked a group of various nationalities if they could think of a comparable example where a fringe party with less than 2% of the total seats in parliament ever wielded more influence than the dup in modern times. The answer was nothing, something vaguely similar in NZ but nowhere near this scale.

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2019 08:24AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184360236871749632

I wonder is this to give the DUP wiggle room...they can now say the EU backtracked and conceded something.

Who would be in Foster's and the DUP's shoes now, shoes they put on themselves.

They are firmly and profoundly snookered every which way.

Itssoeasy · 16-10-2019 08:25AM

Mairead mcguiness on morning Ireland is saying there has been progress but still not saying it's a done deal.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-10-2019 08:29AM

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1184370332200775680

Sterling dropped like a stone.

L1011 · 16-10-2019 08:29AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I once asked a group of various nationalities if they could think of a comparable example where a fringe party with less than 2% of the total seats in parliament ever wielded more influence than the dup in modern times. The answer was nothing, something vaguely similar in NZ but nowhere near this scale.

The 2 seat PDs after 2007 is probably the closest you're going to find!

Itssoeasy · 16-10-2019 08:32AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wonder is this to give the DUP wiggle room...they can now say the EU backtracked and conceded something.

Who would be in Foster's and the DUP's shoes now, shoes they put on themselves.

They are firmly and profoundly snookered every which way.

They seem to be happy to be seen to be difficult though and given their history is basically saying "NO" in various ways since at least the 1970's while we are looking stupid at them they are probably secretly loving it. The Northern Ireland parties over the years have taken the whip of both labour and the conservatives, but this has been different. Instead of being a hair on the dog in the past, the DUP became the tail, because of Theresa Mays arrogance in 2017.

gooch2k9 · 16-10-2019 08:39AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1184370332200775680

Sterling dropped like a stone.

Very different tone from "This is unacceptable to the whole UK." Blame being very squarely put on one group now.

circadian · 16-10-2019 08:40AM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

If the EU are too provide funding, then I
think we should be demanding the A5 upgrade between Derry and Monaghan, and the Catholic extension of the M2 motorway completed to Derry as part of that.

A bitter sweet taste of funding.

Agreed that infrastructure in the west should be focused on. Also should be focusing on bringing in more jobs to reduce the civil service bloat.

The M2/A6 upgrade is well underway, first section opened in the summer.

Robert McGrath · 16-10-2019 08:52AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I once asked a group of various nationalities if they could think of a comparable example where a fringe party with less than 2% of the total seats in parliament ever wielded more influence than the dup in modern times. The answer was nothing, something vaguely similar in NZ but nowhere near this scale.

I vaguely remember a Finance Bill about 10 years which as late as the day of the vote was not certain to pass unless Michael Lowry or maybe Jackie Healy Rae backed it. It was a delicate time following the financial crash and I believe the EU was watching closely as instability in the Irish budget at the time could have had a significant effect on a very vulnerable Euro.

Disproportionate representation ...

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2019 09:00AM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

They seem to be happy to be seen to be difficult though and given their history is basically saying "NO" in various ways since at least the 1970's while we are looking stupid at them they are probably secretly loving it. The Northern Ireland parties over the years have taken the whip of both labour and the conservatives, but this has been different. Instead of being a hair on the dog in the past, the DUP became the tail, because of Theresa Mays arrogance in 2017.

From Paisley to Foster...their body language would suggest to me that they are anything but happy at the situation they are in.

Calamitous no matter what they do. No upside really. Not a place any political party wants to be.

And the astonishing thing is they navigated themselves to that place.

Joe_ Public · 16-10-2019 09:30AM

Robert McGrath wrote: »

I vaguely remember a Finance Bill about 10 years which as late as the day of the vote was not certain to pass unless Michael Lowry or maybe Jackie Healy Rae backed it. It was a delicate time following the financial crash and I believe the EU was watching closely as instability in the Irish budget at the time could have had a significant effect on a very vulnerable Euro.

Disproportionate representation ...

Yeah you do get these things from time to time alright. Tony Gregory also comes to mind but all those figures held things up for a few years at most, the dup has pretty much ensured stasis in british politics for nigh on 3 years now. I mean, it is some achievement, as ignominious as it is.

Joe_ Public · 16-10-2019 10:10AM

Dominic Grieve in Brussels today with a delegation to talk with the EU about an extension. Listening to him, he doesn't sound like a guy, to my mind anyway, who's going to support any deal along the mooted lines, short of a second referendum amendment at least. I think even "cautious optimism" may be stretching it a bit in relation to a deal at this stage.

Umaro · 16-10-2019 10:16AM

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1184396053396758528

When do you think we'll have reaction to these from EU sources?

farmchoice · 16-10-2019 10:20AM

Umaro wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1184396053396758528

When do you think we'll have reaction to these from EU sources?

my first reaction to that is they have got nothing.

the political deceleration is not legally binding, its not hard to write its a bit of a streach to say its back of a fag packet stuff but its nothing compared to the legally operable text required for the WA.
if this is the best they can present or are prepared to present i smell a rat, its all another johnson ploy to kick the can a bit.

gooch2k9 · 16-10-2019 10:29AM

It all falls down...

https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1184396068433420288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1184396068433420288&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Foct%2F16%2Fbrexit-boris-johnson-races-the-clock-as-deadline-for-deal-looms-politics-live

All over insecurities.

Joe_ Public · 16-10-2019 10:31AM

Am i missing something here.....they still cant get around the withdrawal agreement complexities, but the British gov wants to start getting concessions on the .....political declaration?! How is that meant to help things going forward? I'm at a loss here.

Shelga · 16-10-2019 10:33AM

So am I right in thinking that anything the UK government presents to parliament will basically be May’s deal with an NI-only backstop?

farmchoice · 16-10-2019 10:35AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Am i missing something here.....they still cant get around the withdrawal agreement complexities, but the British gov wants to start getting concessions on the .....political declaration?! How is that meant to help things going forward? I'm at a loss here.

its electioneering its all its ever been, johnson is heading into an election tying to explain why he isn't dead in a ditch.

farmchoice · 16-10-2019 10:38AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Am i missing something here.....they still cant get around the withdrawal agreement complexities, but the British gov wants to start getting concessions on the .....political declaration?! How is that meant to help things going forward? I'm at a loss here.

all along the EU said something could be done on the PD but the WA was sacrosanct, unless the uk wanted to go back to a previous version of the WA.
after many months of ludicrous posturing from the Brits they are now faced with this reality as they drive head long towards a deadline of their own creation.

and no matter what happens Johnson has no majority so all this talking is in effect academic anyway.

joe_99 · 16-10-2019 10:39AM

DUP will never budge. They even rejected May's UK wide backstop. Another extension on the cards.

Joe_ Public · 16-10-2019 10:39AM

farmchoice wrote: »

its electioneering its all its ever been, johnson is heading into an election tying to explain why he isn't dead in a ditch.

Probably the only rational way to explain it alright. Its definitely possible that they have been a bit taken aback at how positive and reasonable the EU's position has been and are now trying to get them to snap so to regain a firm grip in the blame game stakes.

is_that_so · 16-10-2019 10:40AM

farmchoice wrote: »

all along the EU said something could be done on the PD but the WA was sacrosanct, unless the uk wanted to go back to a previous version of the WA.
after many months of ludicrous posturing from the Brits they are now faced with this reality as they drive head long towards a deadline of their own creation.

and no matter what happens Johnson has no majority so all this talking is in effect academic anyway.

Not if a deal is delivered. That's the election won, which is what he really wants.

Joe_ Public · 16-10-2019 10:42AM

farmchoice wrote: »

all along the EU said something could be done on the PD but the WA was sacrosanct, unless the uk wanted to go back to a previous version of the WA.
after many months of ludicrous posturing from the Brits they are now faced with this reality as they drive head long towards a deadline of their own creation.

and no matter what happens Johnson has no majority so all this talking is in effect academic anyway.

But didn't that position also include the proviso that the WA had to be signed off before the future relationship could be discussed? So its just tantamount to shifting the goalposts really, when the other talks were, if you believe some of the spin, going in some positive direction. But yes, probably academic for a number of reasons. We've had a few days of positivity, so i reckon there must surely be some very big negative waves heading in the brexit direction.

farmchoice · 16-10-2019 10:42AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Probably the only rational way to explain it alright. Its definitely possible that they have been a bit taken aback at how positive and reasonable the EU's position has been and are now trying to get them to snap so to regain a firm grip in the blame game stakes.

ya the blame game was always going to break down once the UK actually had to present their proposals, Johnson avoided this as long as possible.
the whole no deal carry on was not to force the hand of the EU it was to, at the last minute, force the HOC to accept the deal so as to avoid a crash out

farmchoice · 16-10-2019 10:43AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not if a deal is delivered. That's the election won, which is what he really wants.

except any deal acceptable to the EU will not be acceptable to the DUP/ERG so cant get through the commons, basically back to square one. rinse and repeat.

Enzokk · 16-10-2019 10:44AM

If the deal is May's deal with a NI only backstop, does she vote against it? She stated herself that no PM would bring such a deal to the HoC for a vote so in theory she should reject the deal if Johnson brings it for a vote, right?

54and56 · 16-10-2019 10:47AM

Umaro wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1184396053396758528

When do you think we'll have reaction to these from EU sources?

I'd say the fact they are now putting effort into the political declaration means a new WA is agreed. Why waste time on the Political Declaration if there isn't an agreed WA?

The Political Declaration is non binding so is where the UK can plant whatever it is they need to justify the concessions made in the WA.

"Yes, we agreed to XXX in order to secure Brexit but we have also secured agreement from the EU that we will work towards YYY in the FTA which will mean XXX is temporary in nature and sunny uplands will be delivered in the FTA which we'll get done in just over 12 months blah blah blah........"

is_that_so · 16-10-2019 10:48AM

farmchoice wrote: »

except any deal acceptable to the EU will not be acceptable to the DUP/ERG so cant get through the commons, basically back to square one. rinse and repeat.

He's more likely to get them to back it than the rest of the HoC. ERG are already a little less opposed and DUP can be flipped. He doesn't need to get it through as he's appealing to the public and he can blame the Opposition if it fails. It's election politics and probably the smartest thing he's done since he got in.

farmchoice · 16-10-2019 10:49AM

54and56 wrote: »

I'd say the fact they are now putting effort into the political declaration means a new WA is agreed. Why waste time on the Political Declaration if there isn't an agreed WA?

The Political Declaration is non binding so is where the UK can plant whatever it is they need to justify the concessions made in the WA.

"Yes, we agreed to XXX in order to secure Brexit but we have also secured agreement from the EU that we will work towards YYY in the FTA which will mean XXX is temporary in nature and sunny uplands will be delivered in the FTA which we'll get done in just over 12 months blah blah blah........"

perhaps, its exactly what T. May did when she agreed the WA, problem was she could not get the WA through the HOC despite all the nice words of the PD.
Boris now has the exact same problem.
except unlike t.May he does not have a commons majority even with the DUP

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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