Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

farmchoice

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Probably the only rational way to explain it alright. Its definitely possible that they have been a bit taken aback at how positive and reasonable the EU's position has been and are now trying to get them to snap so to regain a firm grip in the blame game stakes.

ya the blame game was always going to break down once the UK actually had to present their proposals, Johnson avoided this as long as possible.
the whole no deal carry on was not to force the hand of the EU it was to, at the last minute, force the HOC to accept the deal so as to avoid a crash out

farmchoice

is_that_so wrote: »

Not if a deal is delivered. That's the election won, which is what he really wants.

except any deal acceptable to the EU will not be acceptable to the DUP/ERG so cant get through the commons, basically back to square one. rinse and repeat.

Enzokk

If the deal is May's deal with a NI only backstop, does she vote against it? She stated herself that no PM would bring such a deal to the HoC for a vote so in theory she should reject the deal if Johnson brings it for a vote, right?

54and56

Umaro wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1184396053396758528

When do you think we'll have reaction to these from EU sources?

I'd say the fact they are now putting effort into the political declaration means a new WA is agreed. Why waste time on the Political Declaration if there isn't an agreed WA?

The Political Declaration is non binding so is where the UK can plant whatever it is they need to justify the concessions made in the WA.

"Yes, we agreed to XXX in order to secure Brexit but we have also secured agreement from the EU that we will work towards YYY in the FTA which will mean XXX is temporary in nature and sunny uplands will be delivered in the FTA which we'll get done in just over 12 months blah blah blah........"

is_that_so

farmchoice wrote: »

except any deal acceptable to the EU will not be acceptable to the DUP/ERG so cant get through the commons, basically back to square one. rinse and repeat.

He's more likely to get them to back it than the rest of the HoC. ERG are already a little less opposed and DUP can be flipped. He doesn't need to get it through as he's appealing to the public and he can blame the Opposition if it fails. It's election politics and probably the smartest thing he's done since he got in.

farmchoice

54and56 wrote: »

I'd say the fact they are now putting effort into the political declaration means a new WA is agreed. Why waste time on the Political Declaration if there isn't an agreed WA?

The Political Declaration is non binding so is where the UK can plant whatever it is they need to justify the concessions made in the WA.

"Yes, we agreed to XXX in order to secure Brexit but we have also secured agreement from the EU that we will work towards YYY in the FTA which will mean XXX is temporary in nature and sunny uplands will be delivered in the FTA which we'll get done in just over 12 months blah blah blah........"

perhaps, its exactly what T. May did when she agreed the WA, problem was she could not get the WA through the HOC despite all the nice words of the PD.
Boris now has the exact same problem.
except unlike t.May he does not have a commons majority even with the DUP

Joe_ Public

If they had already agreed a WA, it would be all over the news and social media by now, in fact hours ago. The most anything of that magnitude can be kept under wraps is around 5 minutes i'd say. Tops.

farmchoice

is_that_so wrote: »

He's more likely to get them to back it than the rest of the HoC. ERG are already a little less opposed and DUP can be flipped. He doesn't need to get it through as he's appealing to the public and he can blame the Opposition if it fails. It's election politics and probably the smartest thing he's done since he got in.

oh its definitely election politics, every single thing he has done since he became leader has been election politics.
i disagree about flipping the DUP if history teaches up anything its that the DUP are unlikely to agree to anything that separates them from the rest of the UK in relation to brexit

Strazdas

is_that_so wrote: »

He's more likely to get them to back it than the rest of the HoC. ERG are already a little less opposed and DUP can be flipped. He doesn't need to get it through as he's appealing to the public and he can blame the Opposition if it fails. It's election politics and probably the smartest thing he's done since he got in.

One of the Brussels correspondents said yesterday the EU know full well Johnson wants to win a GE and the EU talks are a total sideshow for him.

CelticRambler

54and56 wrote: »

The Political Declaration is non binding so is where the UK can plant whatever it is they need to justify the concessions made in the WA.

Yes, but the EU will also be aware of the near inevitability of a u-turn by the UK on anything that's been put into the Political Declaration under duress, and for all that the EU can live with fudge when it's really needed, they won't want to proceed on the basis of a pledge that is known from the start not to be worth the paper it's written on.

J Mysterio

Enzokk wrote: »

If the deal is May's deal with a NI only backstop, does she vote against it? She stated herself that no PM would bring such a deal to the HoC for a vote so in theory she should reject the deal if Johnson brings it for a vote, right?

That would be really ironic.

She's not the PM anymore though, so maybe she would go with it.

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184407799306031105

Russman

Strazdas wrote: »

One of the Brussels correspondents said yesterday the EU know full well Johnson wants to win a GE and the EU talks are a total sideshow for him.

You'd have to wonder what the DUP's "plan" is at this stage. Surely they can see that they've been thrown to the wolves - they can either agree with the WA and NI backstop now (and get a few quid in the process), or when Johnson wins an election they're going all the way under the bus if he has a majority of Tories without needing them.
It would never happen, but you could almost see them "on mature reflection " deciding that revoke or a 2nd ref is the new best option - considering their current position has no upside for them.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184407799306031105

If it is a NI only backstop, what about this from JRM then?

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1184413538351222785?s=20

There are still so many circles that need to be squared and some that cannot be, it is going to be interesting to see what happens with a deal. You would think that the deal that took 15 months to agree and legally in text will only have superficial changes applied to it to get it done in such a short time.

Edit:

Also, the tweet you linked is part of a thread and there are still a lot of stumbling blocks there like this,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184407806386036738?s=20

And then there is the question of consent as well for NI,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184407810811056129?s=20

It seems Barnier will have a meeting with EU ambassadors at 1pm our time.

J Mysterio

Russman wrote: »

You'd have to wonder what the DUP's "plan" is at this stage. Surely they can see that they've been thrown to the wolves - they can either agree with the WA and NI backstop now (and get a few quid in the process), or when Johnson wins an election they're going all the way under the bus if he has a majority of Tories without needing them.
It would never happen, but you could almost see them "on mature reflection " deciding that revoke or a 2nd ref is the new best option - considering their current position has no upside for them.

Seems to me that now they are no longer getting things their way and feel betrayed by the Conservative party (and Johnson as leader), they will harp on about the GFA and 'consent' of Northern Ireland.

Though they don't care much for the GFA, it now suits them to use it as a basis to reject the 'deal' and - they will hope - get enough ERG and 'unionist' Tories to agree.

Joe_ Public

I see Jo Maugham has tweeted suggesting that trade act implemented by Mogg and the ERG probably wont be an issue for the government in passing a deal, but to my (admittedly untrained eye) it would seem to clearly point out that a NI only backstop is in fact illegal. I dont see how they get out of it, but my legal knowledge is very sketchy indeed.

Well the text says HMG can't enter a deal like that.. But what about Parliament? It's sovereign after all and can do what it likes.

Enzokk

A delay for the Barnier meeting with EU ambassadors, delayed to 5pm CET so 4pm Irish time.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184427393777360896?s=20

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

From Paisley to Foster...their body language would suggest to me that they are anything but happy at the situation they are in.

Calamitous no matter what they do. No upside really. Not a place any political party wants to be.

And the astonishing thing is they navigated themselves to that place.

I’m not taking about yesterday though. I was talking in general. The DUP answer to everything remotely outside their comfort zone is to just say “No.” even if we could get to a maybe we’d be doing well but we aren’t anywhere close to that and Sammy Wilson is saying as much on twitter while Arlene Foster is back in Downing Street trying to figure out a way to dress up their stock answer of “NO”

trellheim

There's a journalism masterclass to be given by tony connelly when the smoke dies down on this. Mujtaba Rahman, Peter Foster and Tom Newton Dunn as the warmup acts.

I'd buy tickets to that.

Hurrache

I think the DUP are trying to scupper this 'deal' like they did with May's at the last minute, only this time I don't think it will cut it with Johnson's crew. It's hilariously hypocritical listening to them use the GFA as their defence when they've been continuously against it and have said during these negotiations at an earlier stage that the GFA is not set in stone when it looked like things were going to go their way.

Itssoeasy

Fair play to Tony Connelly and others for their reporting on the new developments. But lads the EU can sign off and okay this new WA till the cows come home, at the end of the day if the deal can’t get through the HOC then we are all wasting our time. It hasn’t been that the UK and it’s negotiating team hasn’t been able to agree with the EU a way forward towards achieving brexit, it’s the fact the HOC seem unlikely to be able to agree a take away order for themselves never mind agree a WA.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

I think the DUP are trying to scupper this 'deal' like they did with May's at the last minute, only this time I don't think it will cut it with Johnson's crew. It's hilariously hypocritical listening to them use the GFA as their defence when they've been continuously against it and have said during these negotiations at an earlier stage that the GFA is not set in stone when it looked like things were going to go their way.

They're useful idiots to some of the ERG though. A lot of the self-styled 'Spartans' are making it clear that the DUP is their canary in the mine. So it's the DUP's fault I can't vote for this agreement. Nothing to do with me, Guv.

weemcd

DUP statement expected later. My guess would be along the lines of NEVER, NEVER, NEVER!

In saying that, it may not matter. With current parliamentary math it's highly unlikely Johnson gets this through, he's failed at almost every turn in the HOC and I don't see this as any different.

Labour fiddle. Lib Dems demand revoke or second ref and this whole saga drags on until the next deadline.

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They're useful idiots to some of the ERG though. A lot of the self-styled 'Spartans' are making it clear that the DUP is their canary in the mine. So it's the DUP's fault I can't vote for this agreement. Nothing to do with me, Guv.

Absolutely.

I've just seen now that Wilson has tweeted this, so Johnson may not be popping out of the meeting to accept the DUPs phone calls like May did previously.

Buzzfeed are saying that there's a split in the DUP as to if they should accept this deal or not, reporting peculiarly precise figures of 7 to 3 in favour of accepting it.

https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1184426018733465603

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

Absolutely.

I've just seen now that Wilson has tweeted this, so Johnson may not be popping out of the meeting to accept the DUPs phone calls like May did previously.
https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1184426018733465603

Sammy wants a veto and he's entitled to one because reasons.

trellheim

Peoples front of judea stuff

PS Sammy has vetoed the Assembly all he wanted these last 1000 days

Seth Brundle

I don't think I've seen it before when I've looked at their Twitter page but the DUP seem to be suddenly retweeting loads of tweets from OnThisDayTheIRA about various sectarian murders...
https://twitter.com/duponline

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sammy wants a veto and he's entitled to one because reasons.

Noticeable that there is virtually no Unionist tweeters weighing in to support Sammy there.

McMurphy

Hurrache wrote: »

Absolutely.

I've just seen now that Wilson has tweeted this, so Johnson may not be popping out of the meeting to accept the DUPs phone calls like May did previously.

Buzzfeed are saying that there's a split in the DUP as to if they should accept this deal or not, reporting peculiarly precise figures of 7 to 3 in favour of accepting it.

https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1184426018733465603

This replyto Sammy says it all.

https://twitter.com/PastorJimberoo1/status/1184427555417477126?s=19