Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

fash

blackcard wrote: »

I have always believed that it would have been better for everyone if brexit had been defeated. I have no time whatsoever for the DUP. However, I have tried to look at the proposal from their viewpoint. They do not want customs between 1 part of the UK and another part.

Imagine drawing a line from Dublin and Galway and putting customs along this line. Call south of this line Ireland A and north of this line Ireland B. If you wanted to export something from Ireland A to Ireland B, you would have to pay a tariff. This could be claimed back if you could prove that the final destination of goods was Ireland B.
Similarly if you wanted to export something from Ireland B to Ireland A, you would have to pay a tariff which could be refunded if you could prove that the origin of the goods was Ireland B.
As someone who lives in Ireland, I would be totally against such an arrangement so, in a way, I can understand unionists having reservations.

I would certainly be unhappy if I were a unionist- however, those who campaigned for brexit while knowing the risks to the careful ambiguity of the GFA and those who pushed for a hard brexit which intentionally brought about a border against that careful ambiguity specifically to destroy the GFA have zero right to complain. Their voters should blame them.

gimli2112

BBC shockingly bad questioning the Lib Dem leader. Trying to argue people did know what they were voting for 3 years ago and the deal is not even agreed, then saying polls show, people knew what they were voting for, I'm sure some did but not all 1.7M of them and finally calling her a hypocrite for ignoring the original vote, which she already said there was a problem with because people didn't know what they were voting for.

Really this has to end one way or the other. I can only imagine the damage that has, is and will be done.

robinph

gimli2112 wrote: »

BBC shockingly bad questioning the Lib Dem leader. Trying to argue people did know what they were voting for 3 years ago and the deal is not even agreed, then saying polls show, people knew what they were voting for, I'm sure some did but not all 1.7M of them and finally calling her a hypocrite for ignoring the original vote, which she already said there was a problem with because people didn't know what they were voting for.

Really this has to end one way or the other. I can only imagine the damage that has, is and will be done.

Absolutely no one voting for leave knew what it was. Not even the architect of the madness Cummings knew what he was voting for as he had no idea what Cameron then May and parliament itself would do to bring us to this point.

Peregrinus

robinph wrote: »

Absolutely no one voting for leave knew what it was. Not even the architect of the madness Cummings knew what he was voting for as he had no idea what Cameron then May and parliament itself would do to bring us to this point.

All those people who knew exactly what they voted for three-and-a-half years ago are, right now, eagerly waiting for Boris Johnson to reveal to them exactly what it was that they voted for three-and-a-half years ago.

murphaph

fash wrote: »

I would certainly be unhappy if I were a unionist- however, those who campaigned for brexit while knowing the risks to the careful ambiguity of the GFA and those who pushed for a hard brexit which intentionally brought about a border against that careful ambiguity specifically to destroy the GFA have zero right to complain. Their voters should blame them.

Yep. I would have zero sympathy for unionists (in NI and indeed Scotland) in all this. The vote was very close. Unionist Brexit voters in NI and Scotland easily made up the ca. 600k people that would have needed to vote remain instead of leave to swing it the other way.

I still don't see the numbers in the HoC for this hard Brexit for GB. It's much harder than May's deal and that was rejected by Labour because it was too hard for them.

I personally would be happy enough with this deal as there remains an open border in Ireland and GB can go off on its merry way and the EU can move on to the other major issues facing us.

Joe_ Public

gimli2112 wrote: »

BBC shockingly bad questioning the Lib Dem leader. Trying to argue people did know what they were voting for 3 years ago and the deal is not even agreed, then saying polls show, people knew what they were voting for, I'm sure some did but not all 1.7M of them and finally calling her a hypocrite for ignoring the original vote, which she already said there was a problem with because people didn't know what they were voting for.

Really this has to end one way or the other. I can only imagine the damage that has, is and will be done.

Heard her on radio 4 and it was indeed a very bad interview. She deserves some hard questions, as they all do, but some of those flung at her were silly and wide of the mark.

The reality is this, though. Jo Swinson is infinitely more likely to lose her own seat than for her party to win GE so this notion of them getting a mandate to cancel brexit is fantasy realm stuff. If anything a vote for LD would decrease the chance of a second referendum, not enhance it.

Kermit.de.frog

No insults please.

Joe_ Public

I once asked a group of various nationalities if they could think of a comparable example where a fringe party with less than 2% of the total seats in parliament ever wielded more influence than the dup in modern times. The answer was nothing, something vaguely similar in NZ but nowhere near this scale.

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184360236871749632

I wonder is this to give the DUP wiggle room...they can now say the EU backtracked and conceded something.

Who would be in Foster's and the DUP's shoes now, shoes they put on themselves.

They are firmly and profoundly snookered every which way.

Itssoeasy

Mairead mcguiness on morning Ireland is saying there has been progress but still not saying it's a done deal.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1184370332200775680

Sterling dropped like a stone.

L1011

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I once asked a group of various nationalities if they could think of a comparable example where a fringe party with less than 2% of the total seats in parliament ever wielded more influence than the dup in modern times. The answer was nothing, something vaguely similar in NZ but nowhere near this scale.

The 2 seat PDs after 2007 is probably the closest you're going to find!

Itssoeasy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wonder is this to give the DUP wiggle room...they can now say the EU backtracked and conceded something.

Who would be in Foster's and the DUP's shoes now, shoes they put on themselves.

They are firmly and profoundly snookered every which way.

They seem to be happy to be seen to be difficult though and given their history is basically saying "NO" in various ways since at least the 1970's while we are looking stupid at them they are probably secretly loving it. The Northern Ireland parties over the years have taken the whip of both labour and the conservatives, but this has been different. Instead of being a hair on the dog in the past, the DUP became the tail, because of Theresa Mays arrogance in 2017.

gooch2k9

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1184370332200775680

Sterling dropped like a stone.

Very different tone from "This is unacceptable to the whole UK." Blame being very squarely put on one group now.

circadian

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

If the EU are too provide funding, then I
think we should be demanding the A5 upgrade between Derry and Monaghan, and the Catholic extension of the M2 motorway completed to Derry as part of that.

A bitter sweet taste of funding.

Agreed that infrastructure in the west should be focused on. Also should be focusing on bringing in more jobs to reduce the civil service bloat.

The M2/A6 upgrade is well underway, first section opened in the summer.

Robert McGrath

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I once asked a group of various nationalities if they could think of a comparable example where a fringe party with less than 2% of the total seats in parliament ever wielded more influence than the dup in modern times. The answer was nothing, something vaguely similar in NZ but nowhere near this scale.

I vaguely remember a Finance Bill about 10 years which as late as the day of the vote was not certain to pass unless Michael Lowry or maybe Jackie Healy Rae backed it. It was a delicate time following the financial crash and I believe the EU was watching closely as instability in the Irish budget at the time could have had a significant effect on a very vulnerable Euro.

Disproportionate representation ...

FrancieBrady

Itssoeasy wrote: »

They seem to be happy to be seen to be difficult though and given their history is basically saying "NO" in various ways since at least the 1970's while we are looking stupid at them they are probably secretly loving it. The Northern Ireland parties over the years have taken the whip of both labour and the conservatives, but this has been different. Instead of being a hair on the dog in the past, the DUP became the tail, because of Theresa Mays arrogance in 2017.

From Paisley to Foster...their body language would suggest to me that they are anything but happy at the situation they are in.

Calamitous no matter what they do. No upside really. Not a place any political party wants to be.

And the astonishing thing is they navigated themselves to that place.

Joe_ Public

Robert McGrath wrote: »

I vaguely remember a Finance Bill about 10 years which as late as the day of the vote was not certain to pass unless Michael Lowry or maybe Jackie Healy Rae backed it. It was a delicate time following the financial crash and I believe the EU was watching closely as instability in the Irish budget at the time could have had a significant effect on a very vulnerable Euro.

Disproportionate representation ...

Yeah you do get these things from time to time alright. Tony Gregory also comes to mind but all those figures held things up for a few years at most, the dup has pretty much ensured stasis in british politics for nigh on 3 years now. I mean, it is some achievement, as ignominious as it is.

Joe_ Public

Dominic Grieve in Brussels today with a delegation to talk with the EU about an extension. Listening to him, he doesn't sound like a guy, to my mind anyway, who's going to support any deal along the mooted lines, short of a second referendum amendment at least. I think even "cautious optimism" may be stretching it a bit in relation to a deal at this stage.

Umaro

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1184396053396758528

When do you think we'll have reaction to these from EU sources?

farmchoice

Umaro wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1184396053396758528

When do you think we'll have reaction to these from EU sources?

my first reaction to that is they have got nothing.

the political deceleration is not legally binding, its not hard to write its a bit of a streach to say its back of a fag packet stuff but its nothing compared to the legally operable text required for the WA.
if this is the best they can present or are prepared to present i smell a rat, its all another johnson ploy to kick the can a bit.

gooch2k9

It all falls down...


https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1184396068433420288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1184396068433420288&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Foct%2F16%2Fbrexit-boris-johnson-races-the-clock-as-deadline-for-deal-looms-politics-live


All over insecurities.

Joe_ Public

Am i missing something here.....they still cant get around the withdrawal agreement complexities, but the British gov wants to start getting concessions on the .....political declaration?! How is that meant to help things going forward? I'm at a loss here.

Shelga

So am I right in thinking that anything the UK government presents to parliament will basically be May’s deal with an NI-only backstop?

farmchoice

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Am i missing something here.....they still cant get around the withdrawal agreement complexities, but the British gov wants to start getting concessions on the .....political declaration?! How is that meant to help things going forward? I'm at a loss here.

its electioneering its all its ever been, johnson is heading into an election tying to explain why he isn't dead in a ditch.

farmchoice

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Am i missing something here.....they still cant get around the withdrawal agreement complexities, but the British gov wants to start getting concessions on the .....political declaration?! How is that meant to help things going forward? I'm at a loss here.

all along the EU said something could be done on the PD but the WA was sacrosanct, unless the uk wanted to go back to a previous version of the WA.
after many months of ludicrous posturing from the Brits they are now faced with this reality as they drive head long towards a deadline of their own creation.


and no matter what happens Johnson has no majority so all this talking is in effect academic anyway.

joe_99

DUP will never budge. They even rejected May's UK wide backstop. Another extension on the cards.

Joe_ Public

farmchoice wrote: »

its electioneering its all its ever been, johnson is heading into an election tying to explain why he isn't dead in a ditch.

Probably the only rational way to explain it alright. Its definitely possible that they have been a bit taken aback at how positive and reasonable the EU's position has been and are now trying to get them to snap so to regain a firm grip in the blame game stakes.

is_that_so

farmchoice wrote: »

all along the EU said something could be done on the PD but the WA was sacrosanct, unless the uk wanted to go back to a previous version of the WA.
after many months of ludicrous posturing from the Brits they are now faced with this reality as they drive head long towards a deadline of their own creation.


and no matter what happens Johnson has no majority so all this talking is in effect academic anyway.

Not if a deal is delivered. That's the election won, which is what he really wants.

Joe_ Public

farmchoice wrote: »

all along the EU said something could be done on the PD but the WA was sacrosanct, unless the uk wanted to go back to a previous version of the WA.
after many months of ludicrous posturing from the Brits they are now faced with this reality as they drive head long towards a deadline of their own creation.


and no matter what happens Johnson has no majority so all this talking is in effect academic anyway.

But didn't that position also include the proviso that the WA had to be signed off before the future relationship could be discussed? So its just tantamount to shifting the goalposts really, when the other talks were, if you believe some of the spin, going in some positive direction. But yes, probably academic for a number of reasons. We've had a few days of positivity, so i reckon there must surely be some very big negative waves heading in the brexit direction.