Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I'm not up to speed with detail but it sounds as if this deal is going to be a softer Brexit than the one May couldn't get through. Am I right or wrong?

Wrong, May's deal kept the whole UK in the backstop, this one just NI. It is a very hard Brexit for Britain, with analysis showing it is not very different to No Deal long term.

J Mysterio

lawred2 wrote: »

I somehow don't really believe it when Arlene states that she wants a deal that nationalists can agree to.

I don't think she cares that much for what nationalists would like to see.

Well, she doesnt at all, of course. But as she is now under pressure, all she has left is 'consent' and the GFA.

The GFA is a magical thing for the DUP - can be invoked when under pressure and dismissed when it suits.

Imreoir2

Professor Genius wrote: »

Sometimes maybe Tony should zip it for the greater good. Delaying a story from the general public for a few hours isn’t the end of the world.

Perhaps the British should not be giving their EU counterparts assurances of DUP support before that support has been gained.

J Mysterio

intellectual dosser wrote: »

Bemusing that this 11th hour, Brexit deal in the balance, Arlene takes the time to respond to media speculation on Twitter.

Just about sums up her 'statesman' credentials.

It's mad how Twitter is now an acceptable arm of diplomacy in the modern age. Its been indespensible throughout this farce.

Strazdas

intellectual dosser wrote: »

Bemusing that this 11th hour, Brexit deal in the balance, Arlene takes the time to respond to media speculation on Twitter.

Just about sums up her 'statesman' credentials.

She's obviously afraid of how this is playing out with the base back in NI or perhaps with the hardline DUP MPs at Westminster. I cannot see any other reason she would take to Twitter to instantly rebuke a Tony Connelly tweet.

54and56

lawred2 wrote: »

I somehow don't really believe it when Arlene states that she wants a deal that nationalists can agree to.

I don't think she cares that much for what nationalists would like to see.

Didn't she actually use the word "collegiate" in an interview this week to describe how the issue of consent should be handled in NI now that the DUP veto Jeffrey Donaldson kindly confirmed on BBC NI at the weekend has been binned?

I'm sure she said a referendum would be too divisive and that a collegiate approach requiring a majority in both nationalist and unionist communities would be more in tune with how things are done in NI :D:D

Joe_ Public

I'll believe there's a deal when I see official announcement and all parties giving a joint press conference. Not before, regardless of what source says what. Seems to me EU are at pains to stress the positive whatever the status of talks, it's spin and nothing more.

davedanon

Tony doubles down. Or should that be 'quadruples'. Four sources now.


"At the risk of getting into a source arms race, I have four sources confirming the original report..."

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184450769141014529

trellheim

heh heh heh see post above

https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1184454042216550401


( PS everyone remember where we were when reading these posts ha )

hometruths

davedanon wrote: »

Tony doubles down. Or should that be 'quadruples'. Four sources now.


"At the risk of getting into a source arms race, I have four sources confirming the original report..."

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184450769141014529

Tony is risking the whole thing trolling Arlene like that!!

davedanon

Oh nonsense, it's his job. He's a journalist.

prawnsambo

schmittel wrote: »

Tony is risking the whole thing trolling Arlene like that!!

He's replying to Robert Peston, not Arlene Foster. And if they get uppity about a journalist reporting what he's hearing, then they were never on board to begin with.

FrancieBrady

schmittel wrote: »

Tony is risking the whole thing trolling Arlene like that!!

It's not like Facebook, he didn't post it on her 'wall'. He reported a story to everyone following him...she 'chose' to respond.

'Don't shoot the messenger' is apt here.

RickBlaine

Could this whole situation be a case of Johnson getting any possible deal agreed by the EU before the Benn Act deadline even if it won't be passed by Parliament.

Therefore, he can go into the election saying "well I got the deal negotiated in time but Parliament blocked it forcing me to request an extension".

ilovesmybrick

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1184462685582364674?s=20

Apparently there should be some form of idea whether or not it'll be done by the end of the month or if an extension is required, which I think everyone would presume is undoubtedly the case at this stage.

gooch2k9

RickBlaine wrote: »

Could this whole situation be a case of Johnson getting any possible deal agreed by the EU before the Benn Act deadline even if it won't be passed by Parliament.

Therefore, he can go into the election saying "well I got the deal negotiated in time but Parliament blocked it forcing me to request an extension".

I proposed that yesterday but was informed Benn Act mandates an extension request nonetheless.

woohoo!!!

DUP doubling down on veto.

ancapailldorcha

woohoo!!! wrote: »

DUP doubling down on veto.

They don't have a veto. Anything they approve of will be rejected by the EU and vice vearsa. Crafting a proposal simply to satisfy the ideologues and the extremists will inevitably fail once it is examined by the EU.

trellheim

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They don't have a veto. Anything they approve of will be rejected by the EU and vice vearsa. Crafting a proposal simply to satisfy the ideologues and the extremists will inevitably fail once it is examined by the EU.

ACD - Much as I want to joke here , there is a serious point about consent in NI being a very fractious thing - I think most of us are aware of that

54and56

trellheim wrote: »

heh heh heh see post above

https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1184454042216550401


( PS everyone remember where we were when reading these posts ha )

How much Sterling is in circulation and how much value in £'s does a tweet worth 0.8% from Tony Connolly add?

PS Tony, if you're reading this I have a cunning plan we could both retire on

woohoo!!!

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They don't have a veto. Anything they approve of will be rejected by the EU and vice vearsa. Crafting a proposal simply to satisfy the ideologues and the extremists will inevitably fail once it is examined by the EU.

Their concept of consent is a unionist veto as Jeffrey Donaldson confirmed last week. Now it may well be the final swoon to keep the backwoodsmen on board but always a bonus to slap down a fenian etc

54and56

54and56 wrote: »

How much Sterling is in circulation and how much value in £'s does a tweet worth 0.8% from Tony Connolly add?

PS Tony, if you're reading this I have a cunning plan we could both retire on

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/banknote

£70,000,000,000 (£70 Billion) in circulation appartently.

0.8% = £560m

50% for you Tony = £280m

50% for me for being the brains of the operation = £280m

Vegas first then Miami??

54and56

54and56 wrote: »

How much Sterling is in circulation and how much value in £'s does a tweet worth 0.8% from Tony Connolly add?

PS Tony, if you're reading this I have a cunning plan we could both retire on

I suppose technically, that tweet created likely tens or hundreds of bllions of dollars of value. Money in circulation is small beans compared to the overall currency.

prawnsambo

54and56 wrote: »

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/banknote

£70,000,000,000 (£70 Billion) in circulation appartently.

0.8% = £560m

50% for you Tony = £280m

50% for me for being the brains of the operation = £280m

Vegas first then Miami??

So you're going to invest all the sterling in circulation to make £580 million? Are you sure you need the money?

54and56

prawnsambo wrote: »

So you're going to invest all the sterling in circulation to make £580 million? Are you sure you need the money?

You're right, not worth the effort, much better to be glued to Sky News, Twitter and Boards.ie

Infini

schmittel wrote: »

Tony is risking the whole thing trolling Arlene like that!!

Hardly, they can rant and rave all they want this isn't 2017 where they had the ability to sink an idea, they denied reality for too long that they've forgotten their place is under the Boris Bus now. That's what happens when you abandon reality and refuse to deal with the consequences: Sidelined, Irrelevancy, Outlived their usefulness.

I'm honestly getting the feeling that all the chickens are going to come home to roost for the DUP and they're about to get their comeuppance, they've burned their bridges with everyone but worst of all they screwed over everyone including their own supporters in pursuit of their ideological unicorns and now we got the cash for ash in both book and report form coming strait for them.

Get the popcorn and cola lads this is gonna be good!

prawnsambo

Infini wrote: »

Hardly, they can rant and rave all they want this isn't 2017 where they had the ability to sink an idea, they denied reality for too long that they've forgotten their place is under the Boris Bus now. That's what happens when you abandon reality and refuse to deal with the consequences: Sidelined, Irrelevancy, Outlived their usefulness.

I'm honestly getting the feeling that all the chickens are going to come home to roost for the DUP and they're about to get their comeuppance, they've burned their bridges with everyone but worst of all they screwed over everyone including their own supporters in pursuit of their ideological unicorns and now we got the cash for ash in both book and report form coming strait for them.

Get the popcorn and cola lads this is gonna be good!

I'd be afraid what Boris has offered them tbh. There are lots of things he could commit to that would be hard to identify unless they opened up about them. Obviously the usual financial inducements would be visible, but stuff like not having a border poll on a UI, abortion rights, marriage rights etc. could be part of the bargain. And I'm sure there are lots more that I haven't thought of.

Why are the DUP being seen as relevant at all? Johnson has no majority with or without them.

joe40

Infini wrote: »

Hardly, they can rant and rave all they want this isn't 2017 where they had the ability to sink an idea, they denied reality for too long that they've forgotten their place is under the Boris Bus now. That's what happens when you abandon reality and refuse to deal with the consequences: Sidelined, Irrelevancy, Outlived their usefulness.

I'm honestly getting the feeling that all the chickens are going to come home to roost for the DUP and they're about to get their comeuppance, they've burned their bridges with everyone but worst of all they screwed over everyone including their own supporters in pursuit of their ideological unicorns and now we got the cash for ash in both book and report form coming strait for them.

Get the popcorn and cola lads this is gonna be good!

I would love it if you are right but I think when the dust settles on this whatever the outcome, NI politics been what it is, will mean DUP support will remain.
They will claim to have fought the good fight for the union and they're only thing stopping a Sinn Fein controlled assembly (assuming it gets up and running)
In a normal situation the UUP and alliance should be big winner in all this but I don't think it will play out like that.

ancapailldorcha

trellheim wrote: »

ACD - Much as I want to joke here , there is a serious point about consent in NI being a very fractious thing - I think most of us are aware of that

When do the Nationalists get asked for consent?

None of what I said was intended as a joke. Anything that will satisfy the DUP will be unacceptable to the EU.